Group 1 - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610.HK) expects a mid-term net profit of approximately $225 million to $265 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to a net profit of about $159 million for the same period ending June 30, 2024 [1] - The increase in net profit is primarily attributed to an improvement in gross margin, driven by higher alumina prices and relatively stable unit production costs [1] - The average selling price of the company's products for the first half of 2025 is expected to be around $530 per ton, up from approximately $387 per ton in the first half of 2024, but lower than $561 per ton in the second half of 2024 [1] Group 2 - TCL Electronics (01070.HK) anticipates a year-on-year adjusted net profit growth of approximately 45% to 65% for the first half of 2025 [2] - Renrui Talent (06919.HK) expects a mid-term profit attributable to equity holders to increase by 66.7% to 94.1% [2] - China Rare Earth Holdings (03788.HK) reports an increase in total gold resources to 5.07 million ounces [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metal industries [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply-side reform in China is expected to break the deflationary cycle and create investment opportunities in the steel and non-ferrous metal sectors [1][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of "supply constraints" to manage the supply-demand balance and mitigate economic downturn risks [6][12] - The steel industry is facing severe overcapacity, with state-owned enterprises holding a significant market share, which facilitates the implementation of administrative measures to control production [6][28] Summary by Sections 1. Supply-Side Reform and Economic Management - The socialist market economy in China allows for effective macroeconomic control, contrasting with the cyclical issues faced in capitalist economies [12][13] - Historical experiences show that demand stimulus alone is insufficient to resolve deep-seated deflationary pressures [14][15] - The supply-side reform initiated in 2016 has proven successful in stabilizing prices and improving corporate profitability [21][22] 2. Steel Industry Analysis - The steel industry has been in a state of oversupply from 2007 to 2024, with crude steel production increasing from 490 million tons to 1.01 billion tons, while apparent consumption has not kept pace [28][29] - The production capacity utilization rates for rebar and wire rod are expected to decline from around 70% to 50% due to weak real estate demand [33][34] - The concentration of production among state-owned enterprises is high, with central state-owned enterprises accounting for approximately 63% of total production in 2024 [38][39] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three categories of investment targets: profit recovery, stable profit with valuation repair, and stable high-dividend stocks [51] - Specific companies recommended for profit recovery include Liugang Co., Taigang Stainless Steel, and Shandong Iron and Steel, with projected annualized PE ratios improving significantly under favorable conditions [51]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The expected time for the Fed to cut interest rates has been reduced to September/December, and the strengthening of the US dollar may limit the upward space for non - ferrous metal prices [1]. - In the traditional consumption off - season, downstream demand for aluminum is weakening, which may lead to adjustments in aluminum prices. However, due to policy - driven elimination of backward alumina production capacity, alumina prices may still have room to rise [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - **Supply - side factors**: The first - phase 500,000 - ton high - sulfur bauxite desulfurization project in Qingzhen has started production, and domestic and Australian (Guinean) bauxite prices have remained flat or declined, which may increase domestic bauxite production and imports in July. Multiple domestic alumina capacity expansion and transformation projects are in progress, and overseas projects such as Nanshan Aluminum's Indonesian project and SPIC's Guinean project may increase overseas alumina production in July [2]. - **Cost and price**: The average daily full production cost of domestic alumina is about 2,850 yuan/ton. Due to the possible decline in Guinean bauxite prices and policy - driven elimination of backward capacity, alumina prices may still rise. It is recommended that investors try to go long on the main contract at low levels in the short term, paying attention to support levels around 2,900 - 3,000 and resistance levels around 3,300 - 3,500 [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of alumina in Chinese ports and on the SHFE has decreased compared to last week. The continuous accumulation of alumina inventory in Chinese electrolytic aluminum plants has led to a loose supply expectation [11][15]. - **Basis and spread**: The alumina basis and monthly spread are positive but at low levels. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [11]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply - side factors**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum production may increase in July due to capacity transfers and new project startups. Import volume may also increase due to production changes in overseas plants [3][62]. - **Cost and price**: The theoretical weighted average full cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,500 yuan/ton. In the off - season, smelting profits remain high, but downstream demand is weakening, and aluminum prices may face adjustment pressure. It is recommended that investors take a callback approach in the short term, paying attention to support and resistance levels for SHFE and LME aluminum contracts [4]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased compared to last week, and the inventory of aluminum rods in various regions has also increased [43][48]. - **Basis and spread**: The SHFE aluminum basis is positive and within a reasonable range, while the monthly spread is positive and at a relatively high level. The LME aluminum (0 - 3) monthly spread is negative and at a relatively high level, and the (3 - 15) monthly spread is negative and within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors pay attention to short - term, light - position, high - selling arbitrage opportunities for SHFE aluminum basis and spreads, and temporarily wait and see for LME aluminum monthly spread arbitrage opportunities [38][41]. Aluminum Alloy - **Supply - side factors**: The production and import of domestic scrap aluminum may increase in July. The production of primary aluminum alloy may increase, while that of recycled aluminum alloy may decrease. The import and export of unforged aluminum alloy may decrease [6][82]. - **Cost and price**: The daily full production cost of domestic primary aluminum alloy is 20,600 yuan/ton, and that of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 20,000 yuan/ton with negative profits. Due to production losses and increasing inventory, casting aluminum alloy prices may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors try to go short on the main contract at high levels in the short term, paying attention to support levels around 19,500 - 19,700 and resistance levels around 19,900 - 20,000 [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of domestic aluminum alloy has increased, and the raw material inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises may increase while the finished - product inventory may decrease [6][88]. Downstream Processing Enterprises - The capacity utilization rate of China's leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises has decreased compared to last week, affected by the easing of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and the traditional consumption off - season [94][96].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's July rate cut expectation is almost impossible, and the characteristics of the traditional domestic consumption off - season are becoming more obvious [1]. - For alumina, the national policy guides the clearance of backward production capacity, but the falling price of Guinean bauxite weakens cost support, and the price may be adjusted. For electrolytic aluminum, the macro - bullish drive cools down, social inventory accumulates, and the price may face adjustment. For aluminum alloy, domestic recycled aluminum alloy production is in the red, inventory is increasing, and the price of cast aluminum alloy may be adjusted [2][4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - **Supply - side situation**: The 500,000 - ton high - sulfur bauxite desulfurization project in Qingzhen started production in June, and domestic and Australian (Guinean) bauxite prices were flat. New and expanded alumina production capacities in China and overseas are expected to increase production in July. The domestic operating capacity decreased, but inventory increased [2]. - **Cost situation**: The average daily full production cost of Chinese alumina is about 2,850 yuan/ton, with different costs in different regions [25]. - **Inventory situation**: The total inventory of SHFE alumina warehouses and plants decreased last week, while the inventory at Chinese ports increased [14]. - **Investment strategy**: Short - term investors are advised to lightly short the main contract on rallies, focusing on the support level around 2,600 - 2,800 and the resistance level around 3,100 - 3,300 [2]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply - side situation**: Domestic production capacity transfer and new projects are expected to increase production in July, and imports may also increase due to overseas production capacity changes [3][58][61]. - **Demand situation**: The operating rate of downstream leading processing enterprises decreased or remained flat, and traditional consumption off - season led to weakening demand [3]. - **Inventory situation**: Domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum inventories increased last week, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China increased [34][42]. - **Investment strategy**: In the short - term, investors should consider price corrections. For SHFE aluminum contract 2508, focus on the support level around 19,000 - 20,000 and the resistance level around 20,800 - 21,000; for LME aluminum, focus on the support level around 2,450 - 2,500 and the resistance level around 2,600 - 2,650 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Supply - side situation**: The production and import of domestic scrap aluminum may increase in July. The production of primary aluminum alloy may increase, while that of recycled aluminum alloy may decrease [6][81]. - **Cost and profit situation**: The daily full production cost of primary aluminum alloy is 20,600 yuan/ton, and the daily full production cost of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 20,000 yuan/ton with negative profit [6]. - **Inventory situation**: The inventory of domestic aluminum alloy and recycled aluminum alloy is increasing, and the import and export of non - wrought aluminum alloy may decrease [6]. - **Investment strategy**: Short - term investors are advised to lightly short the main contract on rallies, focusing on the support level around 19,500 - 19,700 and the resistance level around 19,900 - 20,000 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" policy is guiding a short-term strength in energy metals, while gold is under pressure due to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar [1]. - The report suggests that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact due to central bank purchases and fiscal concerns [1]. - Industrial metals are experiencing mixed trends, with copper facing supply disruptions and aluminum entering a potential inventory accumulation phase [1]. Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metals sector showed mixed performance this week, with varying price movements across different metals [10]. - The report notes that the overall non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.0%, with energy metals up by 1.0% and industrial metals up by 1.5% [16]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Global copper inventory increased slightly to 518,000 tons, with supply disruptions from MMG and Hudbay Minerals affecting logistics [1]. The copper price has seen fluctuations due to macroeconomic factors and demand-side pressures [1]. - **Aluminum**: The report indicates a potential inventory accumulation cycle, with production recovering in some regions while demand remains subdued [1]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The report notes a continued strength in lithium prices, driven by supply constraints and robust demand from electric vehicle sales [1]. The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose to 64,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.5% increase [26]. - **Metal Silicon**: The report discusses a short-term upward trend in silicon prices due to production cuts and recovery expectations in polysilicon plants [1]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Luoyang Molybdenum, all rated as "Buy" [5]. Company Announcements - Zijin Mining announced an asset acquisition of the RG gold mine project, with a valuation of 1.2 billion yuan [34]. - Ganfeng Lithium completed the acquisition of Mali Lithium, enhancing its lithium resource integration strategy [34]. Price and Inventory Changes - The report provides detailed price movements for various metals, indicating that gold prices increased by 4.2% over the week, while copper prices saw a slight decline [21][23]. Market Trends - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-demand dynamics in the non-ferrous metals market, with particular attention to the impact of macroeconomic indicators on metal prices [1].

Group 1: Industry Overview - Guinea holds the world's largest bauxite reserves, accounting for 25.52% of the total [1] - Aluminum is the third most abundant metal in the Earth's crust, following oxygen and silicon [1] - Global bauxite resources are concentrated in a few countries, including Guinea, Australia, Vietnam, Brazil, Indonesia, China, India, and Russia [1] - China is the largest consumer and importer of bauxite, with a significant role in the global bauxite industry [1] - As of the end of 2024, the proven bauxite reserves globally are approximately 2.9 billion tons, with a static reserve-to-production ratio of about 64.44 years [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Trends - There is an increasing demand for lightweight aluminum profiles globally, particularly in the automotive and aerospace sectors [4] - The rapid development of industries such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics is creating new opportunities for the aluminum profile industry [4] - The application of aluminum profiles in various sectors is deepening, leading to a significant increase in demand [4] Group 3: Company Rankings and Performance - In April 2024, the top companies in China's industrial aluminum profile sector were announced, with Conglin Aluminum Technology, Dingmei New Materials, and Fen'an Aluminum ranking in the top three [7][8] - The top companies in aluminum melting and casting services included Hunan Baling Kiln Energy Saving, Guangdong Jucheng Equipment Technology, and Zhejiang Lanwei Environmental Protection Equipment [9] - Major listed companies in the aluminum industry include China Aluminum, Nanshan Aluminum, Yun Aluminum, and Shenhuo Co., with revenues exceeding 30 billion yuan [10][11] - China Aluminum leads in revenue with 136.36 billion yuan from the primary aluminum segment, while Yun Aluminum and Shenhuo Co. also show strong performance [11][13]

重要内容提示： | 回购方案首次披露日 | 2024/12/12 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购方案实施期限 | 2024 年 月 27 12 | 12 | 日~2025 | 年 | 月 | 26 | 日 | | 预计回购金额 | 300,000,000元~600,000,000元 | | | | | | | | 回购用途 | √减少注册资本 □用于员工持股计划或股权激励 | | | | | | | | | □用于转换公司可转债 | | | | | | | | | □为维护公司价值及股东权益 | | | | | | | | 累计已回购股数 | 51,356,989股 | | | | | | | | 累计已回购股数占总股本比例 | 0.44% | | | | | | | | 累计已回购金额 | 193,099,383.74元 | | | | | | | | 实际回购价格区间 | 3.24元/股~4.08元/股 | | | | | | | 一、回购股份的基本情况 山东南山铝业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）分 ...

Core Viewpoint - The industrial aluminum profile market in China is experiencing significant growth driven by the increasing demand for lightweight vehicles and the expansion of the new energy vehicle sector, alongside robust demand from the photovoltaic industry [1][9]. Market Overview - Industrial aluminum profiles are primarily alloy materials made from aluminum, produced through processes like melting and extrusion, resulting in various shapes for different applications [2]. - The market is witnessing a production capacity expansion among Chinese manufacturers to meet the rising demand, with a projected production volume of 11.705 million tons in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 23.21% [1][9]. Market Policies - A series of supportive policies have been introduced to encourage technological innovation and green manufacturing in the industrial aluminum profile sector, including guidelines for recycling and promoting green finance [4][6]. Industry Chain - The upstream of the industrial aluminum profile industry includes bauxite, recycled aluminum, and production equipment, while the downstream encompasses applications in photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, and construction [7]. Competitive Landscape - The industrial aluminum profile market is highly competitive, with numerous players entering the field. The top twenty companies include prominent names such as Conglin Aluminum Technology and Dingmei New Materials [11][13]. - Conglin Aluminum Technology specializes in high-end industrial aluminum profiles and lightweight equipment, serving major clients like China CRRC and Maersk [14]. - Dingmei New Materials focuses on high-performance aluminum and magnesium alloys, achieving a revenue of 1.491 billion yuan in 2024, with 44.01% from industrial aluminum materials [16]. Development Trends - The industry is expected to adopt smart production lines and technologies such as IoT and AI to enhance efficiency and reduce costs. The use of recycled aluminum is anticipated to increase, promoting resource circularity [18].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement details the pledge and release of shares by the controlling shareholder of Nanshan Aluminum, indicating a stable financial situation and no risk of forced liquidation for the pledged shares [1][2]. Group 1: Shareholding and Pledge Details - As of the disclosure date, Nanshan Group holds 2,405,874,235 shares in Nanshan Aluminum, accounting for approximately 20.72% of the total share capital [1]. - Its concerted actor, Shandong Yili Electric Power Co., Ltd., holds 2,581,044,590 shares, representing about 22.22% of the total share capital [1]. - After the recent pledge and release transactions, Nanshan Group has pledged a total of 422,160,945 shares, which is about 3.64% of the total share capital and 7.63% of the shares held by Nanshan Group [1]. Group 2: Specific Pledge Transactions - Shandong Yili Electric Power has released 240,000,000 shares from pledge, which is 9.30% of its holdings and 2.07% of the total share capital [1]. - Following this release, Yili Electric Power has 550,970,000 shares pledged to CITIC Securities, with 335,000,000 shares remaining pledged, which is 12.98% of its holdings and 2.88% of the total share capital [1]. Group 3: Financial Stability and Risk Management - Both Nanshan Group and Yili Electric Power are reported to have good credit status and repayment capabilities, with no risk of forced liquidation for the pledged shares, indicating that the pledge risk is within a controllable range [2]. - The pledge actions will not lead to any change in the actual control of the company, and the company will continue to monitor the situation closely [3].

公司于近日收到控股股东南山集团的一致行动人怡力电业的通知，怡力电业 将其质押给兴业国际信托有限公司的 240,000,000 股公司股份解除质押，并将持 有的 550,970,000 股公司股份质押给中信证券股份有限公司，具体事项如下： 证券代码：600219 证券简称：南山铝业 公告编号：2025-038 山东南山铝业股份有限公司关于控股股东的一致行 动人所持部分股权解除质押及再质押的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ●截止至披露日，山东南山铝业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）控股股 东南山集团有限公司（以下简称"南山集团"）持有公司股份总数为 2,405,874,235 股，约占公司总股本的 20.72%；其一致行动人山东怡力电业有限公司（以下简 称"怡力电业"）持有公司股份总数为 2,581,044,590 股，约占公司总股本的 22.22%。 ●本次股份解除质押及质押业务完成后，南山集团累计质押其所持有的公司 股份 422,160,945 股，约占公司总股本的 3.64%，占南山集团 ...