转自：长安街知事 产业兴则县域兴，产业强则县域强。胶东半岛渤海湾南岸，山东龙口市以"龙"为名，凭实干立身，连续五年获评山东省高质量发展先进县，综合实力稳 居"江北第一县"，在县域高质量发展的画卷上写下浓墨重彩的一笔。而在其产业图谱中，高端铝材料产业是最具分量的板块。2024年，龙口高端铝材料产 业产值首次突破1000亿元。 深耕铝产业数十载，龙口锚定高端化、智能化、绿色化方向，以"龙头引领、集群共生、创新驱动"的全链条模式，推动高端铝材料产业从"规模扩张"迈 向"质量跃升"，成长为该市两大千亿级产业集群之一，走出了一条传统产业高端化突围的县域路径。 走进企业生产车间，一块普通铝锭历经精准淬炼、精细打磨，完成从基础原材料到高端制成品的华丽蜕变——既能跻身高端制造领域，成为国产大飞机机 身蒙皮的关键材质；也能适配新能源浪潮，化作汽车轻量化部件助力绿色出行；更能融入日常生活，走进千家万户的食品包装、门窗建材，实现"一铝多 用"的多元价值。 链聚成势：筑牢全产业链根基 产业发展，链条为基。龙口从起步就找准"全链条布局、集约化发展"之路，靠"抱团取暖、上下联动"，织就覆盖铝产业全生命周期的"产业网"。 在龙口，5公里范 ...

长江证券则表示，基于电解铝股息率高达5%的优质红利资产，且国内产能天花板+海外电力紧缺掣肘共 同赋予其资源刚性属性，叠加软着陆降息后全球工业景气底部复苏，三重逻辑共振支撑电解铝板块估值 有望从当前8-10X，逐步修复至12X-15X。 消息面上，海外缺电担忧升温，市场对海外电解铝减产预期上升。招银国际指出，当前中国原铝产能利 用率已接近政策上限的99%，同时海外新增产能释放有限，这将支撑全球铝市维持短缺状态，预计2026 年铝均价同比上涨15%。 铝业股继续走高，截至发稿，中国铝业（601600）(02600)涨5.3%，报13.91港元；南山铝业（600219） 国际(02610)涨4.98%，报64.25港元；中国宏桥(01378)涨2.61%，报36.96港元；创新实业(02788)涨 2.31%，报24.8港元。 ...

铝业股午前继续走高，截至发稿，中国铝业（02600）上涨5.38%，报13.92港元；南山铝业国际 （02610）上涨4.41%，报63.90港元；中国宏桥（01378）上涨2.22%，报36.82港元；创新实业 （02788）上涨2.89%，报24.94港元。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 铝业股午前继续走高，截至发稿，中国铝业（02600）上涨5.38%，报13.92港元；南山铝业国际 （02610）上涨4.41%，报63.90港元；中国宏桥（01378）上涨2.22%，报36.82港元；创新实业 （02788）上涨2.89%，报24.94港元。 责任编辑：卢昱君 责任编辑：卢昱君 ...

经济观察网 南山铝业（600219）股价下跌分析：当日市场表现、板块与大盘环境拖累、资金面与技术 面压力、前期涨幅过大后的调整、基本面增速放缓担忧、行业供需格局变化。 行业状况根据思瀚产业研究院2026年2月12日报告，氧化铝预计仍会有较大规模的新增产能投产，而电 解铝产能增幅有限，氧化铝或延续供大于求的局面。招银国际将2026年铝均价预测上调12%，但氧化铝 价格可能进一步下探，对电解铝企业成本改善形成利好，但短期市场情绪受影响。 股票近期走势根据2026年2月13日最新数据，南山铝业（600219.SH）收盘价6.70元，下跌3.04%，成交 金额14.30亿元，换手率1.84%。当日主力资金净流出1.24亿元，占总成交额8.68%，游资资金净流出 3724.61万元，散户资金净流入1.61亿元。从技术面看，MACD差离值0.257，信号线0.356，柱状 图-0.198，显示短期动能偏弱。 板块变化情况2月13日有色金属板块整体下跌3.36%，工业金属板块下跌3.82%。同期上证指数下跌 1.26%，深证成指下跌1.28%。板块内锡业股份（000960）跌超4%，北方稀土（600111）、厦门钨业 （6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The articles highlight the strong performance and growth potential of various companies in the tungsten industry, driven by rising tungsten prices and increasing demand across multiple sectors such as aerospace, military, and renewable energy. Company Summaries - **China Tungsten High-Tech (000657)**: A leading player in the tungsten industry with a complete value chain from mining to manufacturing, benefiting from high self-sufficiency and significant profit elasticity due to rising tungsten prices. The company is positioned well in high-end manufacturing and military applications [1]. - **Xiamen Tungsten (600549)**: A comprehensive new materials leader with a strong presence in tungsten, rare earths, and lithium battery materials. The company is a major APT producer and benefits from dual market demand in tungsten and rare earths, with a clear long-term growth trajectory [2]. - **Zhangyuan Tungsten (002378)**: A private sector leader in the tungsten industry with a complete production system and high resource self-sufficiency. The company is well-positioned in high-end tungsten markets and is expected to see steady profit growth due to rising demand and supply constraints [3]. - **Xianglu Tungsten (002842)**: Focused on deep processing of tungsten, the company has a strong customer base and benefits from rising processing fees alongside tungsten prices. Future growth is expected through technological upgrades and high utilization rates [4]. - **Luoyang Molybdenum (603993)**: A global mining leader with significant tungsten operations, benefiting from high-quality overseas resources and a diversified metal portfolio. The company is expected to see profit growth as tungsten supply-demand dynamics improve [5]. - **Guangsheng Nonferrous Metals (600259)**: A state-owned enterprise with a focus on tungsten and rare earths, benefiting from dual price increases and strong resource integration capabilities. Future growth is anticipated through expanding resource reserves and high-end applications [6][7]. - **Hunan Gold (002155)**: A key mining platform in Hunan with a stable tungsten production and high resource self-sufficiency. The company benefits from rising prices across multiple metals, providing a unique advantage in the small metals sector [8]. - **Antai Technology (000969)**: A leader in high-end refractory metals, focusing on high-value tungsten products for semiconductor and aerospace applications. The company is expected to grow through increased domestic demand and technological advancements [9]. - **Jinmo Co., Ltd. (601958)**: A leading player in the molybdenum industry with significant tungsten operations, benefiting from low-cost resources and a complete production chain. The company is expected to see profit elasticity as tungsten prices rise [10]. - **Dongfang Tantalum (000962)**: A leader in rare metals with a strong tungsten processing capability, benefiting from stable demand in military and aerospace sectors. Future growth is expected from increasing domestic production of high-end tungsten products [11]. - **Xingye Mining (000426)**: A multi-metal mining company with significant tungsten resources, benefiting from price increases and a diversified portfolio that mitigates risks [12]. - **Zhuye Group (600961)**: A veteran in non-ferrous metal smelting with advantages in tungsten recycling and processing. The company is expected to see profit improvements through expanded processing capacity and technological upgrades [13]. - **Zhongkuang Resources (002738)**: A leader in lithium and rare metals with stable tungsten production, benefiting from price increases and a diversified business model [14]. - **Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240)**: A lithium leader with significant tungsten resources, providing stable profits and enhancing resilience against market fluctuations [15]. - **Huayou Cobalt (603799)**: A global leader in cobalt and lithium materials, with a strong tungsten business that supports overall profitability through market synergies [16]. - **Hanrui Cobalt (300618)**: Focused on cobalt and tungsten processing, benefiting from rising demand in high-end manufacturing and renewable energy sectors [17]. - **Xiamen Xinda (000701)**: Engaged in tungsten product trading and supply chain services, benefiting from price increases and a mature supply chain system [18]. - **Aluminum Corporation of China (601600)**: A leader in the non-ferrous sector with a focus on tungsten resource development, benefiting from market dynamics and resource value reassessment [19]. - **Tin Industry Co., Ltd. (000960)**: A global leader in tin with a strong tungsten portfolio, benefiting from price increases and a comprehensive multi-metal strategy [20]. - **Nanshan Aluminum (600219)**: A leading aluminum processor with a focus on tungsten-related materials, expected to grow through high-end manufacturing demand [21].

2月11日，南山铝业大宗交易成交60万股，成交额453万元，占当日总成交额的0.26%，成交价7.55元， 较市场收盘价6.96元溢价8.48%。 | 股票基金信息 | | --- | | 交易日期 | | 证券代码 | 成交价(元) 成交金额[万元) 成交量(*) 买入营业部 | | | 卖出营业部 | 是否为专场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 026-02-11 | 南山铝业 | 600219 | 7.55 453 忍覺睡不是拿望喜歡 | 60 | 不要看不管童甚露 | | ко | ...

机构：华泰证券 研究员：李斌 我们预计公司25-27 年营收为12.0/14.8/16.0 亿美元， 归母净利为4.1/4.8/5.7 亿美元，可比公司26 年Wind 一致预期PE 均值为10.8 倍，考虑公司28 年之后新建电解铝产能有望投产，形成较大业绩增量贡献，公 司未来成长曲线较为陡峭，我们给予公司26 年13 倍PE。按照2026 年2 月9 日美元兑港币汇率7.81 计 算，对应公司目标价78.18 港币。 风险提示：氧化铝价格不及预期、新建产能释放不及预期、印尼贸易等政策变化、远期业绩测算假设发 生变化。 首次覆盖南山铝业国际给予买入评级，给予26 年PE13 倍，对应目标价78.18 港元。公司是东南亚领先 的氧化铝生产商，已形成400 万吨氧化铝产能，此外公司计划新建25 万吨/年电解铝产能，并远期规划 建设50 万吨/年电解铝项目，公司氧化铝业务利润稳定叠加2028 年之后新建电解铝项目或贡献较大业绩 增量，我们看好公司未来利润实现稳步增长。 26 年铝价中枢或达3200 美元/吨，氧化铝受成本端矿价支撑电解铝方面，供给端来看，由于国内目前电 解铝运行产能已接近产能天花板，未来供给增量将 ...

Summary of Nanshan Aluminum Industry Conference Call Company Overview - **Company Name**: Nanshan Aluminum Industry - **Industry**: Aluminum Production - **Founded**: Established in 1993, originally as Longkou Xinhua Plush Factory in July 1989 [2][3] Key Points and Arguments Industry Dynamics - The electrolytic aluminum industry is experiencing increasing prosperity, with domestic production capacity facing limitations, leading to overseas expansion opportunities [1][3] - Nanshan Aluminum has established a significant presence in Indonesia with a 4 million ton alumina production line, ensuring raw material supply [1][3][15] - Future plans include a 1 million ton electrolytic aluminum capacity in Indonesia, enhancing profitability in a high-margin environment [1][19] Financial Performance - Revenue growth from CNY 222.3 billion in 2020 to CNY 335 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 10.7% [5] - Net profit increased from CNY 2.05 billion to CNY 4.83 billion during the same period, with a CAGR of 23.9% [5] - For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue reached CNY 26.3 billion, up 9% year-on-year, and net profit was CNY 3.77 billion, up 8% year-on-year [6] Product Segmentation - Core business segments include cold-rolled products and alumina, with cold-rolled products accounting for over 50% of revenue [6][7] - High-end product sales increased from 12.66% in 2021 to 14% in the first half of 2025, with corresponding gross margins improving from 19.89% to 23% [7] Cost Structure and Profitability - The company maintains a competitive cost structure, with alumina production costs in Indonesia significantly lower than domestic prices [9][16] - Gross margin for alumina reached 48.7% in the first half of 2025, reflecting strong operational efficiency [8][15] Shareholder Returns - Nanshan Aluminum has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, with a cumulative cash dividend of CNY 16 billion and an average payout ratio of 45% since listing [11][12] - A special dividend of CNY 2.584 per share was announced for 2025, totaling CNY 3 billion [12] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the aluminum industry, benefiting from both domestic and international resource advantages [32] - The global demand for aluminum, particularly in the automotive and aerospace sectors, is expected to grow, with significant opportunities in lightweight materials [22][24] - The electrolytic aluminum market is projected to face supply constraints due to limited new capacity and increasing demand from sectors like electric vehicles and energy storage [25][31] Investment Recommendation - Given the company's strong growth prospects, competitive positioning, and commitment to shareholder returns, a "Buy" rating is recommended [32] Additional Important Information - The company has engaged in multiple share buybacks, totaling CNY 1.7 billion to CNY 3.4 billion, indicating strong confidence in its market value [13] - Nanshan Aluminum's international expansion includes plans for additional electrolytic aluminum capacity in Indonesia, with a focus on sustainable energy initiatives [20][21] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding Nanshan Aluminum's strategic positioning, financial performance, and market outlook, providing a comprehensive overview for potential investors.

Core Insights - The report introduces a "Five-Dimensional Industry Comparison Framework" that integrates multiple factors affecting stock price performance, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive analysis rather than relying on a single indicator [3][9] - Historical backtesting from 2016 to February 2025 shows that industries with higher scores in this framework tend to perform better, with annualized returns for the top scoring group at 11.8% compared to -10.5% for the lowest scoring group [21][23] - The report suggests a focus on growth sectors for February, particularly in high valuation industries such as electronics, power equipment, machinery, non-ferrous metals, communications, and computers [3][34] Five-Dimensional Industry Comparison Framework - The framework consists of five dimensions: market style, fundamentals, liquidity, trading, and valuation, with subjective judgments applied to market style, liquidity, and valuation [9][12] - The scoring process involves adjusting weights based on market conditions, with equal weighting during non-earnings seasons and increased emphasis on fundamentals during earnings seasons [8][30] February Market Outlook - The report anticipates a growth-oriented market style for February, with expectations of net inflows from public funds and a focus on high valuation sectors [3][34] - Key industries identified for investment include electronics, power equipment, machinery, non-ferrous metals, communications, and computers, which are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions [34][35] Industry Recommendations - **Electronics and Communications**: Companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and ShenNan Circuit are highlighted for their strong positions in AI-related markets and expected growth in demand for high-end products [36] - **Power Equipment**: Firms such as Shenghong Co. and Yangguang Electric are recommended due to their potential benefits from overseas storage and AI power sectors [40] - **High-End Manufacturing**: Companies like Anpeilong and Jingjin Equipment are noted for their advancements in robotics and AI applications, with significant growth potential [42] - **Non-Ferrous Metals**: Companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are expected to benefit from rising copper prices and strategic stockpiling initiatives [46][47] - **Computers**: Firms such as Hikvision and Kingsoft are recognized for their strong AI capabilities and market positioning, with expectations for sustained growth [49][50]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading logic of the aluminum market has deviated from fundamentals, with the focus on factors like the US dollar, liquidity, and precious metals. Despite some marginal changes in supply, the long - term growth logic of aluminum remains unchanged, but it is experiencing a short - term correction [4]. - The report上调s the 2026 overseas and domestic electrolytic aluminum production forecasts. However, the market is more sensitive to supply cuts than increases, and the long - term bullish view on aluminum as a hedging asset and its connection to new energy and the new economy persists [4]. - For the short - term market, it is advisable to wait for volatility to subside before making trading decisions [4]. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Changes and Outlook - Since the beginning of the year, the aluminum price trend has been highly synchronized with volatility, and the trading logic has deviated from aluminum fundamentals. The focus is on the US dollar, liquidity, and precious metals [4]. - There have been marginal changes in the supply side at home and abroad, including the restart of production at some aluminum plants. The report上调s the 2026 electrolytic aluminum production forecasts for both overseas and domestic markets [4]. - The short - term decline in the number of receiving manufacturers is due to high prices screening out less - resilient downstream buyers. The market is more sensitive to supply cuts than increases [4]. - The short - term view is to wait for the volatility to stabilize before trading [4]. 2. Latest Production Launch Tables of Domestic and Overseas Aluminum Plants - **Overseas**: The production expectations of three overseas plants have been revised upwards. The Lista aluminum plant in the US has restarted 31,000 tons of idle capacity after renewing its power contract. The expected restart time of the Grundartangi aluminum plant in Iceland has been advanced, and the Mozal aluminum plant in Mozambique is expected to have a partial production cut instead of a complete shutdown [7]. - **Domestic**: A northeast domestic aluminum plant with a built - in capacity of 752,500 tons and a current operating capacity of 420,000 tons plans to restart about 300,000 tons of idle capacity in mid - to - late March [7]. 3. Overseas Aluminum Plant Power Contract Progress - The power contract of the US Lista aluminum plant has been renewed to 2035, and it restarted 31,000 tons of idle capacity in January 2026. Other plants also have different power contract situations and production statuses [9]. 4. Overseas Aluminum Plant Production Launch Schedule - In 2026 and the long - term, there are various production - related activities overseas, including new construction, expansion, and restart of production at different aluminum plants. The annual total planned new production capacity in 2026 is 1.7355 million tons [10]. 5. Expected Table of New Domestic Electrolytic Aluminum Projects in 2026 - There are different types of projects in China, such as replacement, expansion, and production restart. The total new production capacity in 2026 is expected to be 1.127 million tons, with limited net - increase capacity from replacement projects [13]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets at Home and Abroad - The report上调s the 2026 overseas and domestic electrolytic aluminum net - increase production forecasts by 120,000 tons and 195,000 tons respectively. The supply - demand balance shows a slight deficit in 2026 [16]. - The long - term growth logic of aluminum remains unchanged, and the market should tolerate short - term corrections [16]. 7. Cost and Profit - Alumina prices have been falling since mid - 2025, which is one of the reasons for the increased profits of aluminum plants. Electricity prices and pre - baked anodes are in a range - bound state [22]. - The average profit of electrolytic aluminum has dropped from about 8,700 yuan/ton last week to 7,000 yuan/ton this week, and the average cost has slightly increased to 16,200 yuan/ton due to a 0.01 - yuan/degree increase in electricity prices [26]. 8. Internal - External Price Ratio - The Shanghai - London ratio has fluctuated. After rising to a phased high on January 7, it has declined. The LME aluminum price led the decline, and the domestic market followed. The internal - external price ratio is currently range - bound [31]. - The overseas spot premiums in North America and Japan have increased week - on - week [31]. 9. Downstream and Inventory - The downstream operating rate is at a seasonal low, especially for aluminum sheets, foils, and strips. It is expected to recover after the holiday [45]. - As of Thursday, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased, while the LME aluminum inventory has decreased. The social inventory of aluminum rods has also increased [48]. - The processing fee of aluminum rods has fluctuated after reaching a high this week [54].