Group 1 - The article discusses the potential catalysts for the non-ferrous metal industry, particularly focusing on copper resources and strategic reserves [1][5]. - The Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Association emphasizes the need to improve copper resource reserves and expand national strategic reserves, suggesting the inclusion of copper concentrate in reserve considerations [5]. - Key companies involved in copper mining and processing are listed, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Copper, Jiangxi Copper, and others, indicating a competitive landscape in the copper sector [6].

江西铜业（600362.SH） 铜冶炼龙头再起航，资源并购助成长 2026 年 02 月 03 日 投资评级：买入（首次） 有色金属/工业金属 fengweimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124070040 并购投资项目持续落地，铜业龙头再起航 江西铜业是国内领先的铜冶炼生产商，在铜以及相关有色金属领域建立了集勘 探、采矿、选矿、冶炼、加工的一体化产业链。目前公司主要资产包括国内规模 领先的铜冶炼产能和 5 座在产铜矿山，整体生产稳健。同时公司积极实践"资源 优先"战略，推动第一量子的战略合作关系，并已在中亚、南美等地区进行资源 布局，合作资源项目（艾娜克铜矿、北秘鲁矿业）有望迎来开花结果。我们预计 2025-2027 年公司将实现归母净利润分别为 84.51/121.47/133.6 亿元，当前股价对 应 PE 为 23.4/16.3/14.8 倍。首次覆盖给予公司"买入"评级。 产业链一体化协同高效，铜冶炼龙头地位稳固 公司于 1979 年成立于江西南昌，围绕江西地区丰富的铜矿资源，打造了从上游 资源到下游冶炼加工的一体化布局。（1）上游资源：公司在国内持有五座在产矿 山，年产铜精矿金属量 ...

有色金属/工业金属 江西铜业（600362.SH） 铜冶炼龙头再起航，资源并购助成长 投资评级：买入（首次） | 日期 | 2026/2/2 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 57.08 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 70.70/19.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,976.53 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,184.55 | | 总股本(亿股) | 34.63 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 20.75 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 196.62 | 股价走势图 -80% 0% 80% 160% 240% 320% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 江西铜业 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 孙二春（分析师） 冯伟珉（联系人） sunerchun@kysec.cn 2026 年 02 月 03 日 fengweimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124070040 并购投资项目持续落地，铜业龙头再起航 江西铜业是国内领先的铜冶炼生产商，在铜以及相关有色金属领域建立了集勘 探、采矿、选矿、冶炼、加工的一体化产业链。目前公司主要资产包括国内规模 领先的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Copper stocks have seen significant gains, with major companies experiencing notable increases in share prices due to positive developments in the copper industry and strategic initiatives by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Luoyang Molybdenum Co. (603993) has risen by 6.77%, trading at HKD 22.72 [1] - China Nonferrous Mining (01258) increased by 5.89%, reaching HKD 15.29 [1] - Minmetals Resources (01208) saw a rise of 4.83%, priced at HKD 9.98 [1] - Jiangxi Copper Co. (600362) gained 4.8%, trading at HKD 45.44 [1] - Zijin Mining (601899) increased by 4.3%, with a price of HKD 41.26 [1] Group 2: Industry Developments - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association is working on improving the copper resource reserve system, which includes expanding the national copper strategic reserve and exploring commercial reserve mechanisms [1] - The association plans to implement commercial reserves through financial subsidies, targeting state-owned enterprises for pilot programs [1] - There is a focus on not only refining copper reserves but also considering the inclusion of copper concentrates that are highly liquid and have significant trade volumes [1] - The association has halted over 2 million tons of copper smelting projects to control excessive growth in smelting capacity [1] - Future efforts will involve strict management of new copper smelting projects to improve the sourcing ratio of copper over time [1]

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant outflows of capital from various stocks, with notable amounts leaving the communication equipment and precious metals sectors [1][2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance and Capital Outflow - Zhongji Xuchuang experienced a capital outflow of 1.647 billion, with a slight increase in stock price of 0.37% [2] - Xinyi Sheng saw a capital outflow of 1.169 billion, with a decline in stock price of 1.7% [2] - BlueFocus Media had a capital outflow of 1.067 billion, with a stock price increase of 2.48% [2] - Industrial Fulian faced a capital outflow of 1.022 billion, with a decrease in stock price of 0.32% [2] - Zijin Mining reported a capital outflow of 0.844 billion, with a stock price increase of 3.88% [2] - Western Materials had a capital outflow of 0.747 billion, with a notable stock price increase of 7.73% [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The communication equipment sector is facing significant capital outflows, with Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng leading the outflows [1][2] - The precious metals sector, including companies like Shandong Gold and Zijin Mining, is also experiencing notable capital outflows [1][3] - The automotive sector, represented by BYD, has a capital outflow of 0.396 billion, with a slight decrease in stock price of 0.25% [3]

Group 1: Geopolitical Developments - Serbian President Vucic predicts that Iran will face military strikes within 48 hours, linking the timing to Epstein-related documents [1] - Iranian officials deny plans for military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, stating that reports of such drills are inaccurate [1] Group 2: U.S.-Iran Relations - U.S. President Trump expresses hope for an agreement with Iran, while Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif maintains confidence in reaching a nuclear deal [3][10] - Zarif indicates that Iran is working with regional partners to build trust with the U.S. for negotiations, which have shown some effectiveness [5][11] - Zarif emphasizes the importance of substance over form in negotiations, reiterating Iran's desire for the U.S. to lift long-standing sanctions and respect its rights to uranium enrichment [11] Group 3: Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market experiences a significant downturn, with gold, silver, crude oil, and industrial metals leading the decline due to hawkish expectations from the Fed and a strengthening dollar [12] - A large sell-off in the A-share market sees major indices drop over 2%, with significant losses in resource sectors and semiconductor stocks [12] - Silver and other precious metals face substantial selling pressure, with notable sell orders exceeding 66 billion for Silver [9] Group 4: Company Developments - Tesla announces the upcoming launch of its third-generation humanoid robot, designed to learn new skills by observing human behavior, with an expected annual production of one million units [13]

有色板块跌幅居前，截至发稿，山东黄金（600547）(01787)跌13.38%，报38.36港元；赤峰黄金 （600988）(06693)跌12.63%，报34.86港元；江西铜业（600362）股份(00358)跌10.16%，报42.64港元； 中国有色矿业(01258)跌9.62%，报14.19港元；中国铝业（601600）(02600)跌7.22%，报12.85港元。 消息面上，国际贵金属市场延续上周五的剧烈抛售行情，黄金与白银双双下挫，午后跌势进一步加深。 现货黄金一度跌破4450美元/盎司，为1月8日以来新低；现货白银则一度抹去今年迄今全部涨幅，最低 至71.31美元/盎司。此外，国内商品期市大面积收跌，沪银、钯、铂、沪镍、沪锡、沪铜、沪铝、国际 铜等主力合约跌停。 中银国际认为，短期来看，经历了此前的加速上行，市场正在重新评估有色板块"趋势"与"波动"的权 重。沃什的提名进程及其政策主张的进一步明晰，将持续作为影响大宗商品价格及有色行业的关键因 素。其"鹰派"立场若被强化，可能阶段性扭转"弱美元"预期，从而加大所有有色金属的价格波动。然 而，降息趋势不改以及供给侧刚性和需求新动能带来的长期产业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing significant sell orders in various metals, indicating potential bearish sentiment among investors [1] Group 1: Silver and Non-Ferrous Metals - Silver has a massive sell order exceeding 6.6 billion yuan [1] - Xiyang Silver and Tin has a sell order exceeding 5.5 billion yuan [1] - Zhongjin Gold has a sell order exceeding 5.1 billion yuan [1] - Tongling Nonferrous Metals has a sell order exceeding 3.4 billion yuan [1] - Shandong Gold has a sell order exceeding 2.8 billion yuan [1] - Jiangxi Copper has a sell order exceeding 1.5 billion yuan [1] - Shanjin International has a sell order exceeding 0.9 billion yuan [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1] Core Views - Gold prices experienced extreme volatility, with a significant rise followed by a sharp decline due to market sentiment and external factors, but the nomination of Waller is not seen as a turning point for the market [2][12] - Copper prices are expected to stabilize after recent fluctuations, supported by strong fundamentals and low inventory levels, suggesting a buy-and-hold strategy for copper mining stocks [3][13] - Lithium prices have been declining, but demand is expected to increase due to new policies and seasonal factors, indicating potential for future price support [4][14] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Research Insights - Gold: After a rapid increase, gold prices faced a sharp drop, but the overall upward trend remains intact for long-term investors [2][12] - Copper: The extreme market sentiment has subsided, and the fundamentals for copper remain strong, suggesting a hold on copper mining stocks [3][13] - Lithium: Inventory levels are decreasing, and new demand drivers are emerging, indicating a potential rebound in prices [4][14] 2. Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 3.70%, outperforming the market by 4.14%, ranking 4th among 30 sub-industries [16] - Top performers in the non-ferrous metals sector included gold, copper, and lead-zinc, with individual stocks like Hunan Gold showing significant gains [16][22] 3. Metal Prices and Inventory - New energy metals: Cobalt prices increased, while lithium prices decreased significantly [23][24] - Base metals: Domestic prices for copper, aluminum, and zinc rose, while lead prices slightly declined [33][35] - Precious metals: Gold and silver prices fell sharply, with gold down 4.7% and silver down 22.5% [47][48]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened with mixed results on February 2, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.93%, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.54%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.65 [1] - The market showed slight fluctuations in the morning, with the declines in the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices narrowing while the ChiNext Index continued to rise [1] Nonferrous Metals Sector - The nonferrous metals sector experienced a significant drop, with the index falling nearly 7% and over 30 stocks hitting the daily limit down during the opening [2][3] - Major stocks such as Xiaocheng Technology (300139) and Jiangxi Copper (600362) also faced limit down situations [3] Precious Metals Futures - Domestic precious metals and nonferrous metal futures saw a sharp decline, with silver futures down 17% and gold futures down over 14% [5][6] - Spot gold and silver initially rebounded but then continued to decline, with gold dropping over 6% and silver nearly 8% [7] Oil and Petrochemical Sector - The oil and petrochemical sector also faced declines, with major stocks like Zhongman Petroleum (603619) and PetroChina (600759) hitting limit down [8][9] - The drop in international oil prices was influenced by geopolitical tensions in Iran, with recent statements from U.S. President Trump indicating a desire for negotiations [8] Telecommunications Sector - The three major telecom operators, China Mobile (600941), China Telecom (601728), and China Unicom, all saw declines of over 4% [10] - A recent announcement from the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration indicated an increase in VAT rates for telecom services starting January 1, 2026, which may impact revenue and profits [11] Liquor Sector - The liquor sector saw a rebound, with stocks like Shui Jing Fang (600779) and Huangtai Liquor (000995) hitting the daily limit up [12][13] - The liquor industry has been in a correction phase for about five years, with current valuations and institutional positions at historical lows, suggesting potential for recovery [14]