Core Viewpoint - Copper stocks continue to rise, driven by supply constraints and recovering demand, leading to upward revisions in price forecasts for copper [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the report, China Nonferrous Mining (01258) increased by 4.78% to HKD 14.02, Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) rose by 3.94% to HKD 14.52, Zijin Mining (601899) gained 3.82% to HKD 31.54, and Jiangxi Copper (600362) saw a 2.82% increase to HKD 27.7 [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Bank of America reports operational issues at the world's three major copper mines, predicting actual production will fall short of previous expectations over the next two years [1] - The shutdown of the Grasberg mine alone could lead to a supply gap of 270,000 tons next year, while European demand is stabilizing and Chinese demand is steady [1] Group 3: Price Forecasts - The bank has raised its copper price forecasts for next year and 2027 to USD 11,313 per ton and USD 13,500 per ton, respectively, due to supply pressures [1] Group 4: Company Ratings and Target Prices - Zijin Mining's target price has been increased from HKD 31 to HKD 37, and Luoyang Molybdenum's target price has been raised from HKD 14 to HKD 16.5, both maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - Jiangxi Copper's rating has been upgraded from "Underperform" to "Buy," with the target price soaring from HKD 17 to HKD 31, benefiting from rising prices of copper concentrate, gold, and silver [1]

该行将紫金矿业目标价由31港元上调至37港元，洛阳钼业目标价由14港元上调至16.5港元，同予"买 入"评级；并将江西铜业的评级由"跑输大市"上调至"买入"，目标价从17港元一举升至31港元，认为其 自产铜精矿、黄金及白银均能受惠于价格上行，加上当局日前宣布规范铜铝冶炼及锂产能政策，可能为 江西铜业带来盈利上行空间。 美银证券发表报告指，考虑到现时全球三大铜矿均出现经营问题，预计今明两年实际产量将低于原先预 期，单单是格拉斯伯格矿区的停产就可能导致明年供应缺口扩大27万吨，与此同时欧洲需求见底回升， 中国需求趋稳，铜供应面临压力，相应将明年及2027年铜价预测上调至每吨11313美元及13500美元。 ...

消息面上，9月28日，工业和信息化部等八部门印发《有色金属行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026 年）》，其中提到，2025—2026年，有色金属行业增加值年均增长5%左右，十种有色金属产量年均增 长1.5%左右，铜、铝、锂等国内资源开发取得积极进展。国海证券认为，短期来看，美联储如期降 息，且仍有进一步降息预期；有色金属行业稳增长工作方案出台，提振行业情绪。下游铝加工环节开工 率仍在持续回升中，库存拐点基本出现，关注"金九银十"旺季机会。民生证券指出，美联储降息落地， 商品供给干扰频发，伴随美国财政货币双宽松，叠加国内"金九银十"旺季需求，工业金属价格有望继续 上行。 有色股早盘活跃，截至发稿，赣锋锂业（002460）(01772)涨6.01%，报39.5港元；中铝国际（601068） (02068)涨4.41%，报2.37港元；招金矿业(01818)涨4.02%，报30.52港元；洛阳钼业（603993）(03993)涨 3.44%，报14.45港元；中国铝业（601600）(02600)涨3.97%，报7.85港元；江西铜业（600362）股份 (00358)涨2.45%，报27.6港元。 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices experienced a collective pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.65%, the Shenzhen Component down 1.76%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.60% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 2.1 trillion, a decrease of over 200 billion compared to the previous day [2] - The market is showing increased divergence as the holiday approaches, with trading volume relatively dull compared to last week, but volatility is on the rise [3] Sector Performance - The market saw a broad adjustment, with most industry sectors declining. Wind power equipment, chemical fiber, fertilizer, and insurance sectors showed gains, while technology sectors such as gaming, consumer electronics, electronic components, internet services, communication equipment, and software development faced significant declines [6] - Technology stocks experienced a widespread retreat, particularly in computing power sectors, with companies like Zhongheng Electric, Lianang Micro, and Qingshan Paper hitting their daily limit down. Major stocks like Inspur Information and Industrial Fulian also saw substantial drops [8] - Copper-related stocks performed well against the trend, with companies like Jingyi Co. achieving three consecutive limit-up days, and Jiangxi Copper and Tongling Nonferrous Metals also rising. This was influenced by supply concerns following a landslide at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which announced "force majeure" due to production stoppage [9] Investment Sentiment - As the National Day holiday approaches, investors face a classic dilemma of whether to hold stocks or cash. The market is experiencing increased volatility and accelerated sector rotation [19] - The market's profitability is declining, with only 32% of stocks rising this week, marking a low point in the current uptrend [21] - Historical data indicates that the probability of index declines in the five trading days leading up to the National Day holiday is 60%, suggesting a cautious outlook for the near term [21] Future Outlook - The technology sector has been a major contributor to the recent index gains, but the current crowded positioning indicates a demand for adjustment. The TMT sector has contributed 42% to the overall A-share index increase since June 23, with a trading volume share of 37% [25] - Given the historical trend of poor performance before the National Day holiday, there is a likelihood of profit-taking, and sectors with strong bottom support signals, such as banking and insurance, may be more favorable [26] - The market is expected to remain in a downward trend with a solid base, and while the medium to long-term upward momentum is still sufficient, more definitive trends may emerge post-October [27]

Group 1 - The copper sector has seen significant price increases, with the copper index rising by 5.13% to 3581.38 points on September 25, 2023, and individual stocks like Jingyi Co. and Luoyang Molybdenum hitting their daily limits [1][2] - Copper prices reached new highs, with LME copper touching $10,485 per ton on September 25, 2023, and Shanghai copper reaching 82,980 yuan per ton, marking the highest levels since July 2024 [1][3] - The suspension of mining operations at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine due to a landslide has raised concerns about copper supply, with expectations that production levels may not return to pre-accident levels until 2027 [3][4] Group 2 - Year-to-date, copper prices have increased from 73,490 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year to 82,540 yuan per ton by September 25, 2023, reflecting a 12.31% increase [2] - Major copper companies in the A-share market have also seen stock price increases, with companies like Xinyi Silver Tin and Luoyang Molybdenum experiencing over 100% gains year-to-date [2] - The Grasberg mine accounts for approximately 3% of global copper supply, and its production loss is expected to impact global supply significantly, supporting higher copper prices [3][4] Group 3 - The Grasberg mine's production halt is not an isolated incident, as other copper mines, such as the Kamoa-Kakula mine in Africa, have also faced operational disruptions earlier this year [5][6] - Companies like Luoyang Molybdenum are planning to expand their copper production capabilities, aiming for a target of 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons by 2028 [7] - Zijin Mining has gained control over the Giant Dragon Copper Mine, which is expected to significantly increase its production capacity by 2025 [8] Group 4 - Analysts predict that copper prices will continue to experience high volatility, influenced by supply-demand dynamics and the ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting the market [4][9] - The rising copper prices are expected to impact downstream industries, particularly in the renewable energy sector, where copper demand is significantly higher compared to traditional energy sources [8]

Group 1 - Hunan Silver increased by 9.12% [1] - Silver Nonferrous rose by 8.51% [1] - Jiangxi Copper surged by 6.77% [1] - Guiyan Platinum, Yuguang Gold Lead, and Shengda Resources all rose over 4% [1]

有色50ETF（159652）标的指数成分股涨跌不一，铜板块继续领涨，江西铜业涨超4%，紫金矿业、洛阳钼业等微涨，赣锋锂业、中国铝业、中国 黄金等回调。 数据显示，有色50ETF（159652）标的指数全面涵盖金、铜、稀土等金属板块，根据中信三级行业分布，其"含铜量"达30%，"金铜含量"领先全市 场同类指数！ 截至10:05，成分股仅做展示使用，不构成投资建议 9月26日，临近长假，A股小幅震荡回调，有色板块早盘一度加速冲高，随后涨幅有所收窄。有色50ETF（159652）一度涨超2%，资金跑步进场， 截至10：15，有色50ETF（159652）实时获净申购1500万份，按盘中成交均价估算，实时净申购额已超2000万元！ | | 有色50ETF 159652 | ਐ | | --- | --- | --- | | | | OH | | रोस | 56.04% 120日 | 61.53% | | 5日 | 4.15% 250日 | 75.59% | | 20日 | 5.13% 52周高 | 1.35 | | 60日 | 33.23% 52周低 | 0.75 | | 实时申购赎回信息 | 申购 | 使口 | ...

Group 1 - The precious metals sector experienced a significant upward movement on September 26, with Hunan Silver rising over 9% [1] - Silver Unicom and Jiangxi Copper both increased by nearly 7% [1] - Guiyan Platinum, Yuguang Gold Lead, and Shengda Resources saw gains of over 4% [1]

此外，9月24日晚间，美国矿业巨头自由港麦克莫兰公司旗下印尼铜矿因为泥浆溃涌事故而宣布停产。 该公司初步评估显示，第三季度铜和黄金销售指引，分别较2025年7月的预期降低4%和6%。同时，该 公司预计2026年的铜和黄金产量可能较此前的估算骤降约35%。而上述印尼铜矿最早要到2027年才能恢 复事故前的生产水平。 机构表示，9月8日因事故停产的印尼Grasberg矿山仍处于暂停状态，铜矿供应紧张的担忧仍然持续。需 求方面，虽然电线电缆开工率环比再度走弱，但是精炼铜制杆开工率环比升约3个百分点，需求相对平 稳。目前铜需求旺季未启动，但是供应扰动再起，预计铜价将走强。 中信证券认为，国内铜矿板块在盈利和估值两方面将迎来持续共振。一方面，年内供需进一步改善为 盾，旺季效应和宏观暖风为矛，2025年三季度至四季度铜价有望冲击10500美元/吨，预计铜价中枢上移 将促进企业盈利预期改善。另一方面，对供给短缺与需求成长的感知差异导致海内外板块估值悬殊，预 计未来供需认知改善以及铜价上台阶将驱动国内估值继续提升至15倍—20倍。 有色板块26日盘中再度走强，截至发稿，精艺股份连续3日涨停，丽岛新材亦涨停，湖南白银、白银有 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market's copper concept stocks continue to strengthen, with Jingyi Co. achieving three consecutive trading limit increases, and other companies like Baiyin Nonferrous Metals, Jiangxi Copper, and Shengtun Mining also showing significant gains [1] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's Copper Branch firmly opposes "involution" competition within the copper smelting industry, indicating a push for more sustainable practices [1] - The Grasberg mine in Indonesia, the world's second-largest copper mine, has declared "force majeure" and ceased operations due to a landslide incident, impacting global copper supply [1]