格隆汇2月24日｜A股市场CPO概念股集体走强，其中，天孚通信、德科立涨超14%，炬光科技涨超 13%，亨通光电、华工科技、天通股份10CM涨停，沃格光电涨8%，长芯博创、光库科技、烽火通信、 中天科技涨超7%，永鼎股份、华懋科技、联特科技、聚飞光电、仕佳光子、中际旭创涨超6%。 上个马年沪指涨近60%！新年新福利来了，炒股排面要拉满，新号启幸运>> | 代码 | 名称 | | 涨幅% ↓ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300394 | 天孚通信 | 1 | 14.32 | 2769亿 | 75.44 | | 688205 | 德科工 | 张 | 14.13 | 289亿 | 32.75 | | 688167 | 炬光科技 | 1 | 13.28 | 359亿 | 128.43 | | 600487 | 草通光电 | 1 | 10.00 | 1045 乙 | 71.25 | | 000988 | 华工科技 | 1 | 10.00 | 829亿 | 3.90 | | 600330 | 天通股份 | 1 | 9.99 | 225 ...

Core Viewpoint - The optical fiber sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by unprecedented demand for high-performance optical fibers and cables due to the global AI wave and the need for low latency and high bandwidth [1] Industry Summary - Optical fiber concept stocks are on the rise, with companies like Hangzhou Dianzi, Tianfu Communication, Hengtong Optic-Electric, Changjiang Communication, Fenghuo Communication, Tongguang Cable, and Huamai Technology seeing substantial gains [1] - According to Huatai Securities, the price of G.652.D single-mode optical fiber in the Chinese market is expected to reach a seven-year high of 35 yuan per core kilometer by January 2026, with a monthly increase of over 75% in January alone [1] - Guotai Junan Securities indicates a confirmed upward trend in the optical fiber industry's pricing cycle, with prices of scattered fibers rising significantly due to increased overseas demand for G657A2 and reduced supply of G652D, leading to longer delivery times [1] - Anticipation of price increases is supported by upcoming procurement from telecom and mobile operators, as well as heightened pre-Spring Festival inventory demands, suggesting that major domestic clients are likely to accept price hikes [1] - The sector is expected to benefit from the price surge, with leading domestic optical fiber and cable manufacturers like Yangtze Optical Fiber, Hengtong Optic-Electric, and Zhongtian Technology poised to gain from the explosive demand and price trends [1]

Core Viewpoint - The main investment logic in A-shares for 2026 is centered around price increases, where rising prices of certain goods and services are expected to lead to higher stock prices for related companies, as increased selling prices enhance profitability and provide support for stock prices [1][10]. Price Increase Concept - Market expert Peng Zu has identified 2026 as a "big year" for price increases, emphasizing the significance of this trend in investment strategies [2][11]. - The most resilient sectors benefiting from price increases include computing power, cloud services, and optical fiber, all driven by the demand surge from AI applications [3][12]. - Year-to-date, stocks related to computing power and cloud services, such as Wangsu Technology, have seen significant gains, with an increase of over 110% since the beginning of the year [3][13]. Optical Fiber Sector - The optical fiber sector has also experienced substantial price increases, with monthly price rises exceeding 75% since the beginning of 2026, reaching an average price of over 40 yuan per core kilometer, with some manufacturers quoting prices as high as 50 yuan per core kilometer [3][13]. - Companies like Yangtze Optical Fibre and Hengtong Optic-Electric have seen their stock prices rise significantly due to these trends [3][13]. Chemical Sector - The chemical sector has emerged as a strong performer, with companies like Runtu Co., Ltd. seeing their stock prices nearly double since January 19, 2026, driven by rising prices of key products [4][14]. - Baichuan Co., Ltd. has also reported significant price increases for its products, with TMP prices soaring from over 8,000 yuan per ton at the end of 2025 to 15,000 yuan per ton by February 2026, enhancing profit expectations [5][15]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The recovery in downstream demand from sectors like real estate and new energy is driving increased demand for chemical raw materials, while industry capacity reductions and rising raw material costs are forcing collective price increases [6][14]. - The ongoing supply-demand imbalance in sectors such as computing power, cloud services, and optical fiber is expected to persist, supporting the price increase logic [8][17]. Institutional Investment Trends - Institutional investors are likely to remain engaged, with expectations of continued accumulation of leading stocks in the computing power and optical fiber sectors, as they have shown confidence in the sustainability of price increases [9][18]. - Following the Spring Festival, there is an anticipated influx of capital into A-shares, particularly favoring sectors with strong price increase narratives [9][18]. Policy and Industry Support - Post-Spring Festival, policies supporting the "East Data West Computing" project and AI industry are expected to further stimulate demand in computing power, cloud services, and optical fiber sectors [9][18].

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a widespread decline in CPO concept stocks, with notable drops in several companies [1] - Hengtong Optic-Electric fell by 7%, while Changxin Bochuang and Jieput fell over 6% [1] - Dekeli and Changfei Optical Fiber experienced declines of over 5%, and Tiantong Co., Hengdong Light, and Taicheng Light dropped over 4% [1] Group 2 - Guangku Technology, Tianfu Communication, Shijia Photon, Robot Technology, Yongding Co., and Zhongtian Technology all saw declines exceeding 3% [1]

Group 1: Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a clear upward trend due to supply-side clearing and demand-side support, with expectations of profitability recovery in 2026 as inefficient companies exit the market and leading firms enhance efficiency through technological upgrades [1][14] - In 2025, China's photovoltaic industry saw a significant increase in installed capacity, reaching 315.07 GW, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.67%, despite a slowdown in the second half of the year [14][16] - The introduction of policies aimed at preventing "involution" in the industry has led to a recovery in prices, with polysilicon prices rising over 50% from June to November 2025, indicating a shift towards a more rational pricing environment [22][29] Group 2: Wind Power Industry - The wind power industry is expected to benefit from a favorable supply-demand structure, with significant growth anticipated in offshore wind projects and exports, particularly in 2025 [1][3] - The domestic wind power market is projected to continue its growth trajectory, with offshore wind becoming a key focus area, supported by increasing demand for domestic and international markets [1][3] - Investment recommendations include focusing on leading manufacturers in the wind turbine sector and companies involved in high-barrier components such as submarine cables, which are expected to see increased demand [3][3] Group 3: New Energy Vehicles - The new energy vehicle sector in China is projected to achieve sales of 16.49 million units in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.2%, driven by stable market demand and improved product structures [2][3] - The industry is witnessing a recovery in profitability as supply-side chaos is effectively managed, with significant price increases in key materials like lithium hexafluorophosphate and vinyl carbonate [2][3] - The transition to a high-quality development phase is expected in 2026, supported by technological innovations and enhanced supply chain capabilities [2][3] Group 4: Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability as inefficient production capacity is eliminated, with key materials seeing price increases and demand from new energy vehicles and energy storage continuing to rise [8][8] - Recommendations include focusing on leading companies in the battery and structural components sectors, which are expected to benefit from the industry's recovery [8][8] - The commercialization of solid-state batteries is accelerating, with several companies making significant progress in this area [8][8]

Core Viewpoint - The wind power industry is experiencing unsustainable "involution" competition characterized by low-price disorder, necessitating a shift towards value enhancement through technological innovation [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The cost of submarine cables accounts for approximately 10% of the total investment in offshore wind projects, highlighting their significance [1][4]. - Offshore wind projects are increasingly adopting higher voltage submarine cables, such as 66 kV collection cables and 330 kV or 500 kV direct current export cables, to improve efficiency and reduce costs [2][5]. - The Guangdong Yangjiang Sanshan Island offshore wind flexible direct current transmission project, which includes a 500 kV offshore converter station and a 115 km long 500 kV direct current export cable, is set to commence in April 2025 [2][5]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The domestic market for medium and low voltage submarine cables is highly competitive, with numerous manufacturers and new entrants [1][4]. - Major suppliers of 500 kV ultra-high voltage submarine cables in China include Zhongtian Technology, Oriental Cable, and Hengtong Optic-Electric, indicating a concentrated supply chain [2][5]. - High voltage submarine cables offer higher added value, leading to better performance compared to medium and low voltage cables [2][5]. Group 3: Technological Innovation - The insulation materials for high voltage submarine cables present significant technical challenges, with high dielectric performance and cleanliness requirements [3][6]. - Domestic companies are making strides in the localization of insulation materials, with Hengtong Optic-Electric developing 220 kV cables using domestically sourced insulation materials [3][6]. - Zhongtian Technology is also working on trials for domestic insulation materials, achieving breakthroughs in key materials [3][6].

Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities indicates a significant increase in the price of G.652.D single-mode optical fibers in China, with prices exceeding 40 yuan per core kilometer in January 2026, marking a nearly seven-year high, driven by strong demand from both data centers and telecommunications sectors [1] Demand Side - The demand for optical fibers and cables is rapidly increasing due to the growth of data centers and special products, with a notable recovery in telecommunications demand [2] - AI data center demand is driving both volume and price increases for optical fibers and cables, with applications in data center ScaleOut scenarios leading to growth in transmission channels and fiber counts [2] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is generating substantial demand for fiber optic drones, with deployment expected by mid-2024, further boosting demand [2][3] Supply Side - The production capacity of optical fiber preforms remains high, but AI and special products are encroaching on traditional G.652.D fiber capacity [4] - The majority of global optical fiber preform capacity is controlled by leading domestic, Japanese, and American manufacturers, and current production levels are at full capacity, making it difficult to alleviate supply constraints in the short term [4] - The introduction of high-value products like G.657.A1 and G.657.A2 fibers is expected to further strain traditional fiber production capacity, as these products share production lines with G.652.D fibers but have higher technical demands [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the optical fiber and cable sector due to improving supply-demand dynamics and the potential for high-value product development [4] - Companies such as Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (601869.SH), Hengtong Optic-Electric (600487.SH), Zhongtian Technology (600522.SH), and FiberHome Technologies (600498.SH) are highlighted as key players to watch in this sector [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Jujie Microfiber has reached a 20% limit-up, indicating strong market performance [1] - Baichuan Co., Ltd. and China National Materials Technology have also hit the limit-up, reflecting positive investor sentiment [1] - Other companies such as Zhongtian Technology, Huazheng New Materials, Jiebang Technology, Xinzhoubang, Guoci Materials, and Ping An Electric have shown significant gains, following the upward trend [1]

Summary of Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co. Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company Name**: Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co. Ltd. (600522.SS) - **Industry**: Utilities, specifically focusing on optical fiber, power transmission, and marine systems Key Points and Arguments Price Target and Valuation - The price target has been raised by 21.3% from Rmb24.27 to Rmb29.45, indicating a positive outlook for the company [1] - The company is currently trading at an appealing P/E of 17.1x for 2026 estimates, compared to a historical peak of 29.1x over the past five years [5][19] - The new price target implies a P/E of 22.9x for 2026 estimates, with a PEG ratio of approximately 0.5x [5] Optical Fiber Market Dynamics - Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology (ZTT) is positioned as a direct beneficiary of the optical fiber upcycle, with spot prices for optical fiber increasing significantly since Q4 2025, driven by demand from AI data centers and supply constraints [2] - The company expects elevated prices to persist through 2026, with normalization anticipated in 2027 [2] - ZTT is operating near full capacity of approximately 90 million core-km, with a 40% export mix [2] Offshore Wind Development - Anticipated acceleration in both domestic and overseas offshore wind projects, particularly in China and Europe [3] - In China, a breakthrough in offshore deep-sea development is expected during the 15th Five-Year Plan, with projected installations of 15-20GW annually from 2027 to 2030 [3] - ZTT has a substantial order backlog of Rmb3.2 billion for subsea cables, with full delivery expected by 2027 [3] Power Transmission Growth - China's confirmed grid capex plan and an export surge are expected to fuel growth in power transmission [4] - ZTT's power transmission revenue is forecasted to grow by 15% annually from 2026 to 2027 [4] - The company aims to increase its export mix of land cables to 25-30% in the coming years, up from the current 17-18% [4] Financial Projections - Revenue for the optical information and communication segment is projected to grow by 25% YoY in 2026, reaching Rmb10 billion [5] - Earnings are expected to increase by 43.8% YoY in 2026, reaching Rmb4.4 billion, with a product mix of 35% optical I&C, 35% marine systems, and 30% power transmission [5] - The company has revised its revenue forecasts for 2026 and 2027 upwards by 1.9% each, now expecting Rmb61.3 billion and Rmb67.7 billion respectively [32] Risks and Opportunities - Risks include slower-than-expected revenue growth in the optical I&C segment and subpar order intakes in overseas markets [31] - Opportunities arise from the growth of submarine cable demand due to offshore wind power capacity expansion [26] Consensus and Analyst Ratings - The consensus rating for ZTT is overwhelmingly "Overweight" with no "Equal-weight" or "Underweight" ratings [20] - Institutional ownership stands at 85.2%, indicating strong confidence from institutional investors [29] Additional Important Information - The company is expected to benefit from favorable structural tailwinds across its segments, particularly in optical fiber demand and power transmission growth [11][18] - The financial summary indicates a robust growth trajectory with significant increases in net profit and revenue across the forecasted years [9][33]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the optical fiber industry, highlighting key players and market dynamics. Key Players - **First Tier (Top Four Leaders)**: - **Changfei Fiber** - **FiberHome Technologies** - **Hengtong Optic-Electric** - **ZTT (Zhongtian Technology)** - These companies focus on high-end multimode and hollow-core fiber, which exhibit profit elasticity [1][1][1] - **Second Tier**: - **Yongding Co., Ltd.** - This company is positioned as a significant player but not in the top tier [1][1][1] Additional Notes - **Beijing Stock Exchange**: - Mention of **Gobi Technology**, indicating its relevance in the market [1][1][1] This summary captures the essential points regarding the optical fiber industry and its key players as discussed in the conference call.