Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company, as a leading player in the Hebei liquor market, is experiencing significant internal reform driven by stock incentives, leading to improved management efficiency, product structure upgrades, and cost-effectiveness optimization. This positions the company for continued performance improvement and market share growth, with expected diluted EPS of 0.9, 1.1, and 1.3 CNY for 2024-2026, respectively [1][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has over 2000 years of brewing history and is recognized in North China. It was established in 2001 and has expanded its product range through acquisitions, including the purchase of Fenglian Liquor in 2018, which diversified its offerings into various flavor profiles [2][19]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 4,653 million CNY in 2022, with a growth rate of 15.5%. For 2023, revenues increased to 5,257 million CNY, reflecting a 13% growth. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 5,603 million CNY, 6,173 million CNY, and 6,782 million CNY, respectively [5][39]. Product Structure and Market Position - The company has successfully diversified its product offerings, with high-end liquor sales growing at a CAGR of 17% from 2018 to 2023, while mid-range and low-end liquor sales grew at 8% and declined by 2%, respectively. High-end liquor now accounts for 51% of total revenue [3][42]. Management and Governance - The management team has remained stable, with key personnel retaining their positions through recent board transitions. The company has implemented stock incentive plans to enhance internal motivation and performance [3][25][32]. Brand and Market Strategy - The company operates multiple brands, including Hengshui Laobai Gan, Wuling Liquor, and others, which contribute to a diversified revenue stream. The strategic focus on regional brands supports a nationwide expansion strategy [19][33]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company has seen a significant increase in profitability, with a net profit of 666 million CNY in 2023, down from 708 million CNY in 2022, but expected to rebound with a projected profit of 853 million CNY in 2024. The company has also successfully reduced its sales expense ratio, contributing to improved margins [5][39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price set at 22.99 yuan, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next six months [4]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated a continuous upgrade in product structure, leading to a significant increase in net profit margin, which is expected to continue [4]. - The revenue for Q3 2024 reached 1.618 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.26%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 25.17% to 252 million yuan [1][4]. - The company is benefiting from the expansion of the high-end market segment, with products priced above 100 yuan showing a revenue increase of 9.95% [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company's gross margin improved by 0.60 percentage points to 66.77%, and the net margin increased by 3.10 percentage points to 15.57% [4]. - The operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was 419 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 36.53% compared to the previous year [4]. Market and Channel Analysis - Revenue from different regions in Q3 2024 showed varied performance, with notable growth in Hunan (+18.22%) and a decline in Anhui (-7.09%) [3]. - The number of distributors increased to 11,483 by the end of Q3 2024, indicating a robust distribution network [3]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of 9%, 8%, and 8% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profit growth rates projected at 28%, 22%, and 24% [4].

证券代码：600559 证券简称：老白干酒 公告编号：2024-028 关于召开 2024 年第三季度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 河北衡水老白干酒业股份有限公司 会议召开时间：2024 年 11 月 19 日(星期二) 上午 10:00- 11:00 会议召开地点：上海证券交易所上证路演中心（网址： https://roadshow.sseinfo.com/） 会议召开方式：上证路演中心网络互动 投资者可于 2024 年 11 月 12 日(星期二) 至 11 月 18 日 (星期一)16:00前登录上证路演中心网站首页点击"提问预征集"栏 目或通过公司邮箱 hslbg@hengshuilaobaigan.net 进行提问。公司 将在说明会上对投资者普遍关注的问题进行回答。 河北衡水老白干酒业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）已于 2024 年 10 月 31 日发布公司 2024 年第三季度报告，为便于广大投资 者更全面深入地了解公司 2024 年第三季度经营成果、财务状况 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company Lao Baigan Jiu (600559.SH) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated effective cost control, leading to continuous profit improvement. For the first three quarters of 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 556 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.0%, while operating revenue was 4.088 billion yuan, up 6.29% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure, with products priced above 100 yuan showing significant growth. The revenue from products priced above 100 yuan increased by 15.71% year-on-year [1] - The company is strategically enhancing its market share in mid-to-high-priced products within its local market, which is expected to provide further growth opportunities [1] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 4.088 billion yuan, with a net profit of 556 million yuan, reflecting a 33.0% increase year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 66.21%, with a net profit margin of 13.61%, indicating an improvement in profitability [1] - The company forecasts net profits of 831 million yuan, 967 million yuan, and 1.093 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.91 yuan, 1.06 yuan, and 1.19 yuan [2][1] Financial Data and Valuation - The projected operating revenue for 2024 is 5.699 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.4% [2] - The projected net profit for 2024 is 831 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.8% [2] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 30.1 in 2023 to 24.1 in 2024, indicating a more attractive valuation [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Add" rating to the company with a target price of 23.10, compared to the last closing price of 20.39 [1][2]. Core Views - The company has shown a continuous improvement in product structure, leading to sustained profit realization. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 4.088 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 556 million, up 33.0% year-on-year [2][3]. - The third quarter of 2024 saw total revenue of 1.618 billion, a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year, with liquor revenue specifically at 1.61 billion, reflecting a 5.9% year-on-year growth [2][3]. - The company has optimized its product structure, with products priced above 100 yuan generating 791 million in revenue, a 10.0% increase year-on-year, while those below 100 yuan generated 821 million, a 2.3% increase [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the gross margin was 66.2%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for Q3 2024 was 66.8%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. - The net profit margin for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 13.6%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 2024 net profit margin at 15.6%, up 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of 6%, 9%, and 8% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profit growth rates of 26%, 14%, and 13% for the same years [2][3]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.92, 1.05, and 1.18 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 22x, 20x, and 17x [2][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 4.088 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.29%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 555.6 million yuan, up 33.00% year-on-year [2] - The product structure continues to optimize, with products priced above 100 yuan showing the highest growth rates [2] - The company has seen steady growth in its distribution channels, with revenue from distributors, direct sales, and online channels increasing by 12.83%, 4.02%, and decreasing by 17.54% respectively in the first three quarters of 2024 [2] - The company's main market in Hebei has shown stable growth, with revenue from various regions increasing year-on-year [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 1.618 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.26% year-on-year, with a net profit of 252 million yuan, up 25.17% year-on-year [2] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 66.21%, a decrease of 0.54 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased by 2.73 percentage points to 13.61% [3] Product and Market Analysis - The revenue from products priced above 100 yuan reached 2.044 billion yuan, growing by 15.71% year-on-year, while products priced below 100 yuan saw revenue of 2.020 billion yuan, increasing by 8.35% [2] - The company’s distribution network in Hebei, Shandong, Anhui, Hunan, and other regions has shown varied growth rates, with Hebei growing by 9.12% year-on-year [2] Profitability Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 830 million yuan, 996 million yuan, and 1.176 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.62%, 20.04%, and 18.02% [4] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for these years are projected to be 23, 19, and 16 times [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 4.088 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 556 million yuan, up 33.0% year-on-year [4][5] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.618 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 252 million yuan, which is a 25.2% increase year-on-year [4][5] - The company continues to optimize its product structure and enhance brand communication, leading to growth in mid-to-high-end liquor sales [5] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company's liquor revenue in Q3 2024 increased by 5.9% to 1.612 billion yuan, with revenues from products priced above and below 100 yuan increasing by 9.9% and 2.3% respectively [5] - The company’s net profit margin improved by 3.1 percentage points year-on-year to 15.6% in Q3 2024, with a gross margin of 66.8% [6] Cost Management - The company has maintained stable expense ratios, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios showing minimal changes [6] - The effective tax rate decreased by 4.8 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to profit improvement [6] Cash Flow and Receivables - The company reported a decrease in cash receipts from sales by 11.9% year-on-year to 1.624 billion yuan, and a net cash flow from operating activities of 419 million yuan, down 36.5% year-on-year [6] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to have EPS of 0.92, 1.12, and 1.33 yuan per share for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a target P/E ratio of 25-30 times for 2024, leading to a fair value range of 22.91-27.49 yuan [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][2] Core Views - The company has shown robust growth with continuous profit release, as evidenced by its Q1-Q3 2024 performance, which includes total revenue of 4.088 billion yuan (up 6.29% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 555.6 million yuan (up 33.00% year-on-year) [1] - The report highlights the company's focus on product structure upgrades and the successful performance of its Wuling liquor brand, with revenue from products priced above 100 yuan increasing by 15.71% year-on-year [1] - The company is expected to benefit from internal reform dividends, with slight adjustments made to its EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, total revenue reached 4.088 billion yuan, with a net profit of 555.6 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.00% [1] - The gross margin and net margin for Q1-Q3 2024 were 66.21% and 13.61%, respectively, showing slight improvements compared to the previous year [1] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities for Q1-Q3 was 642 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 22.54% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from products priced above 100 yuan was 2.044 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, up 15.71% year-on-year, while revenue from products priced below 100 yuan was 2.020 billion yuan, up 8.35% year-on-year [1] - The company’s revenue from different channels showed stability, with dealer sales increasing by 12.83% year-on-year [1] Profit Forecasts - The report adjusts the company's EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 0.89, 1.06, and 1.25 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 24, 20, and 17 times [2] - The projected net profit for 2024 is 815 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 22.3% compared to the previous year [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 1.618 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 252 million yuan, up 25.17%, which meets expectations. The growth in products priced above 100 yuan remains resilient, primarily benefiting from Wuling liquor and A-level products [2][6]. - The report anticipates significant improvement in performance due to the effects of state-owned enterprise reform, indicating substantial future profit growth potential [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 4.088 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.29%, and a net profit of 556 million yuan, up 33.00% [6]. - In Q3 2024, the company’s revenue was 1.618 billion yuan, with a net profit of 252 million yuan, reflecting a strong performance [6]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 66.77%, an increase of 0.60 percentage points year-on-year, driven by continuous optimization of product structure [6]. Market Performance - The company’s products priced above 100 yuan saw revenue of 791 million yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.95%, while products priced below 100 yuan generated 821 million yuan, up 2.29% [6]. - Regional performance showed that the Hunan market accelerated, while the Hebei market underperformed due to restaurant regulations affecting liquor consumption [6]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 5.565 billion yuan, 5.942 billion yuan, and 6.241 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 5.85%, 6.78%, and 5.03% [7]. - Net profits are expected to reach 873 million yuan, 1.092 billion yuan, and 1.240 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 31.16%, 25.04%, and 13.57% respectively [7].

老白千酒(600559) 盈利能力显著提升,提质增效成果显现 老白干酒 2024年三季报点评 投资要点 □24 前三季度 营收 40.88 亿元(同比+6%);归母净利润 5.56 亿元(+33%)。 24Q3 营收 16.18 亿元（+0.26%）; 归母净利润 2.52 亿元（+25%）, 收入略低于 预期、利润符合预期。 □我们认为,公司管理不断提升,五个品牌分区域运作,内部实行赛马机制, 利于激发组织活力。从报表上看，费用改革成果不断兑现,盈利能力显著提 升。此外,公司加大对渠道经销商的扶持力度,降低渠道库存,重视长期发 展。我们看好结构升级+费用管控下的利润弹性释放。 □百元以上价位带增长较快,山东/湖南增速亮眼 1) 分产品，百元以上价位带增长较快。24 前三季度百元以上/以下白酒（按照 出厂价）分别实现收入 20.44 亿元（+16%）/20.20 亿 元（+8%）。 24Q3 百 元以上/以下白酒分别实现收入 7.91 亿元 (+10%) /8.21 亿 元 (+2% ) 2) 分区域,Q3 山东/湖南收入增长较高。 24 前三季度 河北/山东/安徽/湖南省 份收入占比 58%/3%/11%/ ...