Market Performance - The liquor sector rose by 2.52% on August 29, with Jinhuijiu leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3857.93, up 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12696.15, up 0.99% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Jinhuijiu (code: 616809) closed at 22.07, up 7.71% with a trading volume of 250,500 shares and a turnover of 551 million yuan [1] - Shede Liquor (code: 600702) closed at 68.38, up 6.02% with a trading volume of 305,100 shares and a turnover of 2.07 billion yuan [1] - Other notable stocks include Zhi Si Li (code: 000799) up 5.26%, Gujing Gongjiu (code: 000596) up 4.45%, and Wuliangye (code: 000858) up 3.24% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The liquor sector saw a net inflow of 1.886 billion yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 833 million yuan [1] - Main funds showed significant net inflows in stocks like Kweichow Moutai (code: 600519) with 61.3 million yuan and Wuliangye (code: 000858) with 486 million yuan [2] - Retail investors had net outflows in several stocks, including Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [2]

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 2.48 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.48%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 321 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.42% [1] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 1.31 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.95%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 168 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.16% [1] - The company slightly exceeded revenue and profit expectations compared to prior forecasts [1] Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue from liquor was 1.31 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.73% [2] - Revenue breakdown: - Revenue above 100 million was 656 million, a year-on-year decrease of 9.69% - Revenue below 100 million was 652 million, a year-on-year increase of 7.84% [2] - Regional performance: - Hebei: 760 million, down 0.01% - Shandong: 45 million, down 1.16% - Anhui: 91 million, down 37.2% - Hunan: 317 million, up 12.5% - Other provinces: 90 million, down 4.20% - Overseas: 4 million, down 0.32% [2] - Q2 2025 net profit margin was 12.8%, an increase of 0.27 percentage points, primarily due to a decrease in sales expense ratio and income tax rate [2] - Q2 2025 gross margin was 67.4%, a decrease of 1.06 percentage points [2] - Q2 2025 operating cash flow was -224 million, compared to -187 million in the same period last year [2] Investment Rating and Valuation - Due to ongoing external demand pressures, the company has revised down its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 708 million, 769 million, and 855 million respectively, with year-on-year changes of -10.0%, 8.6%, and 11.2% [1] - Current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 23x, 21x, and 19x for 2025-2027, which remains within a reasonable range compared to peer valuations, maintaining a "buy" rating [1] Catalysts for Stock Performance - Core product growth rate exceeded expectations - Net profit growth rate also exceeded expectations [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company demonstrated stable performance with a slight increase in profitability, focusing on product, channel, and brand reforms to enhance operational performance and core competitiveness [1][4]. - Despite external market pressures leading to a slight decline in revenue in Q2, the overall outlook remains positive due to market share growth and brand expansion [1][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, total revenue was 2.48 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 320 million, reflecting year-on-year increases of 0.5% and 5.4% respectively [1][2]. - The gross margin improved by 2.1 percentage points to 68.0% in the first half of 2025, attributed to product mix optimization [3]. - The company expects revenue for 2025-2027 to be 5.38 billion, 5.60 billion, and 5.94 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.4%, 4.1%, and 6.1% [4][10]. Brand and Product Performance - The white liquor business generated 2.47 billion in revenue for the first half of 2025, with a product mix showing growth in higher-priced products [2]. - The company’s various brands, including Laobai Gan and Wuling, showed mixed performance, with Laobai Gan achieving a 2% revenue increase [2][4]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from an improved competitive landscape in Hebei province, with a solid logic for profit margin improvement driven by market share gains and cost efficiency [1][4]. - The target price for the stock is set at 23.40 RMB, based on a 26x PE ratio for 2025 [4][6].

2025 年 08 月 29 日 老白干酒 (600559) ——经营韧性凸显，费用改革持续落地 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） 上 市 公 司 食品饮料 | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 28 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 17.62 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 25.54/15.81 | | 市净率 | 3.0 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 3.12 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 16,026 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,843.60/12,571.37 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 5.68 | | 资产负债率% | 42.07 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 915/910 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 08-28 09-28 10-28 11-28 12-28 01-28 02-28 03-31 04-30 05-31 0 ...

| 产品档次 | 2025年1-6 月营业收入 | 2024 年 1-6 月营业收入 | 同比(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 100 元以上 | 131, 658. 50 | 125, 273. 66 | 5.1 | | 100 元以下 | 115, 308. 00 | 119, 872. 44 | -3.8 | 2025年上半年，老白干酒实现营业收入24.81亿元，同比增长0.48%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润3.21亿元，同比增长5.42%；归属于上市公司股东的扣除 非经常性损益的净利润2.96亿元，同比增长6.45%。 | | | | 早V: 几 巾 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要会计数据 | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | 不打 | | | (1-6月) | | 年同 | | 营业收入 | 2, 481, 485, 505. 53 | 2, 469, 670, 941. 54 | | | 利润总额 | 430. 442. 388. 47 | 412, 832, 515. 99 | | | 归属于上市公司股东的净利润 | 320. 838 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rebound of the liquor sector, particularly the significant rise in Jinhuijiu's stock price, indicating a positive trend in the industry [3]. Group 1: Liquor Sector Performance - Jinhuijiu's stock reached the daily limit, while other liquor companies such as Shede Liquor, Laobai Ganjiu, and others saw increases of around 5% [3]. - The overall performance of the liquor sector suggests a recovery, with multiple companies experiencing notable gains [3]. Group 2: Market Overview - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 500 billion [6]. - The ChiNext 50 Index experienced a decline, with a drop of 3% [7]. - The A-share market opened with mixed results, with the insurance sector showing strong performance [9]. Group 3: Company-Specific News - Cambrian Technology opened down by 6.8%, with an announcement projecting annual revenue between 5 billion to 7 billion for 2025 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Lao Baigan Liquor, reported a modest revenue growth of 0.48% year-on-year, achieving 2.481 billion yuan in revenue and a net profit of 321 million yuan, reflecting a 5.42% increase, amidst a challenging environment in the liquor industry [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 2.481 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 0.48% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 321 million yuan, marking a 5.42% increase compared to the previous year [1]. - Operating costs decreased by 5.76%, significantly contributing to the net profit growth [2]. Group 2: Cost Management and Efficiency - The company has been actively conducting cost reduction and efficiency enhancement activities, leading to a decrease in financial expenses [2]. - There has been a continuous optimization of the supply chain through strategic cooperation with core suppliers and dynamic evaluation methods [2]. - The company transferred the equity of three wholly-owned subsidiaries to enhance operational efficiency [2]. Group 3: Brand and Marketing Expansion - Sales expenses increased by 3.14% to 680 million yuan, as the company engaged in diverse activities to enhance brand influence [2]. - The company was recognized as one of the first "Chinese Consumer Famous Brands" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, becoming the only liquor company from Hebei province on the list [2]. Group 4: Subsidiary Performance - The subsidiary Hunan Wuling Liquor generated 526 million yuan in revenue and 183 million yuan in net profit, accounting for 42.56% of the company's total profit [3]. - Anhui Wenwang Liquor reported revenue of 240 million yuan and a net profit of approximately 5.83 million yuan [3]. - Chengde Qianlongzui achieved revenue of 363 million yuan and a net profit of about 2.95 million yuan, while Qufu Kongfu Family Liquor generated 93.2 million yuan in revenue with a net profit of approximately 909,980 yuan [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Laobai Ganjiu, reported a slight increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of the year, but faces challenges in maintaining growth amid market fluctuations and increased sales expenses [2][3]. Financial Performance - Laobai Ganjiu's revenue for the first half of the year was 2.481 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.48%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 321 million, up 5.42% [2][5]. - In the second quarter, revenue declined to 1.314 billion, a decrease of 1.95% year-on-year, with net profit at 168 million, showing a minimal increase of 0.16% [2]. - The company’s revenue growth was primarily driven by its core markets in Hebei and Hunan, which grew by 3.74% and 11.34% respectively [2]. Market Challenges - The company struggled in the Anhui market, where revenue fell by nearly 20% to 240 million [3]. - Despite the slight revenue growth, Laobai Ganjiu is not on track to meet its annual revenue target of 5.47 billion, requiring only a 2% year-on-year growth to achieve this [3]. Cash Flow and Liabilities - The company’s contract liabilities decreased significantly to 1.275 billion, returning to levels seen in 2021, compared to 1.862 billion, 1.872 billion, and 1.705 billion in the previous three years [4]. - Operating cash flow turned negative for the first time in years, at -45.8 million, a decline of 120% year-on-year [4][5]. Cost Management - Laobai Ganjiu managed to reduce its operating costs by 3% and management expenses by nearly 1% during the first half of the year [7]. - The gross profit margin improved to nearly 68%, indicating successful cost-cutting measures [7].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Laobai Ganjiu in the first half of the year shows slight revenue growth, but challenges are increasing, particularly in the second quarter, raising concerns about its ability to meet future targets [1][2]. Financial Performance - Laobai Ganjiu reported a revenue of 2.481 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 0.48%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 321 million yuan, up 5.42% [1][4]. - The second quarter revenue was 1.314 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 1.95% year-on-year, while net profit for the same period was 168 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.16% [1]. - The company’s revenue growth was primarily driven by its core markets in Hebei and Hunan, which saw increases of 3.74% and 11.34%, respectively [1]. Market Challenges - The Anhui market experienced the most significant decline, with Wenwang Gongjiu's revenue dropping nearly 20% to 240 million yuan [2]. - Despite the slight revenue growth, Laobai Ganjiu is not on track to meet its annual revenue target of 5.47 billion yuan, requiring only a 2% year-on-year growth to achieve this [2]. Cash Flow and Liabilities - The company’s contract liabilities decreased significantly to approximately 1.275 billion yuan, returning to levels seen in 2021, compared to 1.862 billion yuan, 1.872 billion yuan, and 1.705 billion yuan in the previous three years [3]. - Operating cash flow turned negative for the first time in years, with a net cash flow of -45.8 million yuan, a substantial decline of 120% year-on-year [3][4]. Cost Management - Laobai Ganjiu managed to reduce its operating costs by 3% and management expenses by nearly 1% in the first half of the year, contributing to an increase in gross profit margin to nearly 68% [5].

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of Laobai Ganjiu (老白干酒) shows slight revenue growth in the first half of the year, but challenges are increasing, particularly in the second quarter, raising concerns about meeting annual targets [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Laobai Ganjiu reported a revenue of 2.48 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 0.48% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 321 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.42% [1]. - In the second quarter, revenue declined by 1.95% to 1.31 billion yuan, while net profit increased slightly by 0.16% to 168 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The growth in revenue was primarily driven by the Hebei and Hunan markets, which saw increases of 3.74% and 11.34%, respectively [1]. - The Anhui market experienced the most significant decline, with revenue dropping nearly 20% to 240 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Operational Insights - The company’s contract liabilities decreased to approximately 1.275 billion yuan, returning to levels seen in 2021, indicating a reduction in future revenue obligations [2]. - Operating cash flow turned negative at -45.8 million yuan, a significant decline of 120% compared to previous years [2]. - Cost management efforts led to a 3% reduction in operating costs and a nearly 1% decrease in management expenses, contributing to an increase in gross profit margin to nearly 68% [4].