青岛啤酒（600600.SH） 稳住销量，力保增长 2025 年 08 月 27 日 投资评级：增持（维持） 食品饮料/非白酒 | 日期 | 2025/8/27 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 68.98 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 86.18/53.20 | | 总市值(亿元) | 941.02 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 489.16 | | 总股本(亿股) | 13.64 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 7.09 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 64.25 | 股价走势图 -16% 0% 16% 32% 48% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 青岛啤酒 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《修复销量优先，待旺季催化—公司 信息更新报告》-2025.4.30 《轻装上阵，2025 年有望修复—公司 信息更新报告》-2025.4.1 《卸下包袱，轻装上阵—公司信息更 新报告》-2024.11.1 张宇光（分析师） 方勇（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 fangyong@kys ...

2025 年 8 月 27 日 公司研究 销量同比增长，成本红利持续释放 ——青岛啤酒（600600.SH）2025 年中报点评 买入（维持） 当前价：69.78 元 作者 分析师：陈彦彤 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 021-52523689 chenyt@ebscn.com 分析师：汪航宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 021-52523174 wanghangyu@ebscn.com 分析师：聂博雅 执业证书编号：S0930522030003 021-52523808 nieboya@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 13.64 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 951.94 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 51.56/83.53 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 32.55% | 股价相对走势 -10% 2% 14% 26% 38% 08/24 11/24 02/25 05/25 青岛啤酒 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1 ...

事件：公司发布2025 年中报，25H1 实现收入204.9 亿元，同比+2.1%，实现归母净利润39.0 亿元，同比 +7.2%，实现扣非归母净利润36.3 亿元，同比+6.0%；对应25Q2 实现收入100.5 亿元，同比+1.3%，实现 净利润21.9 亿元，同比+7.3%，实现扣非归母净利润20.3 亿元，同比+6.0%。 25Q2 量价齐升，结构升级延续，主品牌&中高端以上销量增长，其他品牌&低端价格带销量下滑。 25Q2 公司实现收入100.5 亿元，同比+1.3%。拆分量价看，实现销量247.1 万吨，同比+1.0%；吨收入同 比+0.3%。其中：24Q2 销量基数较低，销量同比-8.0%，我们预期25Q2 改善幅度较缓主要受禁酒令影 响。分结构看，25Q2 青岛啤酒主品牌实现销量133.8 万吨，同比+3.9%，占总销量比重达54.1%，同比 +1.5pcts，其他品牌销量同比-2.2%。25Q2 中高端以上实现销量98.1 万吨，同比+4.8%，占总销量比重达 39.7%，同比+1.4pcts，中高端以下销量同比-1.3%。 25Q2 成本改善环比提速，毛利率持续改善，费用控制较优，利润率提 ...

Core Viewpoint - Qingdao Beer reported a significant increase in shareholder accounts, with a total of 85,212 accounts as of June 30, 2025, representing a 43.7% increase from March 31, 2025, despite a 6.03% decline in stock price during the same period [1][2]. Group 1: Shareholder Statistics - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders reached 85,212, an increase of 25,915 accounts, or 43.7% from the previous quarter [1][2]. - The average number of shares held per account decreased from 12,000 shares to 8,322 shares, with an average market value of 578,000 yuan per account [1][2]. - Compared to the non-baijiu industry average, Qingdao Beer has a higher number of shareholders, with the industry average at 38,400 accounts [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance - From March 31, 2025, to June 30, 2025, Qingdao Beer experienced a stock price decline of 6.03%, while the number of shareholders increased significantly [1][2]. - During this period, the main capital saw a net outflow of 944 million yuan, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 716 million yuan [2].

展望未来，该行认为集团有望在下半年维持收入与盈利的增长势头。当前市盈率计估值并未过高，具备 良好的风险回报比，同时市场对中国酒类行业的投资情绪有望改善;H股目标价维持58.8港元，青啤A股 (600600.SH)目标价维持81.6元人民币，A/H股评级均由持有上调至"买入"。 （原标题：中银国际：上调青岛啤酒股份(00168)评级至"买入" 目标价维持58.8港元） 智通财经APP获悉，中银国际发布研报称，青岛啤酒股份(00168)上半年净利润同比增长7.2%，收入同 比增长2.1%，均符合预期。次季销量增长较首季略有放缓，但平均售价稳定。如同比比较，次季利润 率改善速度较首季加快。 ...

中银国际发布研报称，青岛啤酒（600600）股份(00168)上半年净利润同比增长7.2%，收入同比增长 2.1%，均符合预期。次季销量增长较首季略有放缓，但平均售价稳定。如同比比较，次季利润率改善 速度较首季加快。 展望未来，该行认为集团有望在下半年维持收入与盈利的增长势头。当前市盈率计估值并未过高，具备 良好的风险回报比，同时市场对中国酒类行业的投资情绪有望改善;H股目标价维持58.8港元，青啤A股 (600600.SH)目标价维持81.6元人民币，A/H股评级均由持有上调至"买入"。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Qingdao Beer [2][5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 20.49 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.1%, and a net profit of 3.90 billion yuan, up 7.2% year-on-year [5] - In Q2 2025, revenue reached 10.05 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, and a net profit of 2.19 billion yuan, up 7.3% year-on-year [5] - The company continues to optimize its product structure, with a focus on high-end products, which saw sales growth of 3.9% for the main brand and 4.8% for mid-to-high-end products in Q2 2025 [5] - The net profit margin in Q2 2025 was 22.3%, marking a historical high since the company went public, driven by product optimization and a decrease in raw material costs [5] - The report highlights two main growth drivers: a stable competitive landscape in the beer industry and the company's active expansion into new product categories [5] Financial Forecasts - Projected revenue for 2024 is 32.14 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -5.3%, followed by 32.81 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 2.1% [2][6] - Expected net profit for 2024 is 4.34 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 1.81%, increasing to 4.78 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 9.97% [2][6] - The gross profit margin is forecasted to improve from 40.23% in 2024 to 41.30% in 2025 [2][6] - The diluted EPS is expected to rise from 3.19 yuan in 2024 to 3.50 yuan in 2025 [2][6] Market Performance - As of August 27, 2025, the closing price of Qingdao Beer was 68.98 yuan, with a market capitalization of 48.9 billion yuan [3] - The report indicates that the company's stock performance has outpaced the CSI 300 index [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company demonstrated a strong profit growth in Q2 2025, outpacing revenue growth, indicating effective cost management and product optimization strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 20.491 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.11%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.904 billion yuan, up 7.21% year-on-year [1]. - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 10.046 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.28%, while net profit increased by 7.32% to 2.194 billion yuan [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q2 2025 rose by 3.05 percentage points to 45.84%, with a net profit margin of 22.26%, an increase of 1.11 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Sales and Product Strategy - The company sold 4.732 million kiloliters of products in the first half of 2025, marking a 2.3% increase year-on-year, with the main brand achieving sales of 2.713 million kiloliters, up 3.9% [1]. - In Q2 2025, product sales reached 2.471 million kiloliters, a 1.0% increase year-on-year, with the main brand and high-end products achieving sales of 1.338 million kiloliters and 0.981 million kiloliters, respectively, growing by 3.9% and 4.8% [1]. - The average price per ton for products in Q2 2025 was 4,065 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The company maintains a "buy" rating, with expected EPS of 3.52 yuan and 3.85 yuan for 2025 and 2026, corresponding to PE ratios of 20 times and 18 times [2]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the beer industry, with a clear strategy for product structure optimization and easing cost pressures, suggesting a steady recovery in demand [2].

展望未来，该行认为集团有望在下半年维持收入与盈利的增长势头。当前市盈率计估值并未过高，具备 良好的风险回报比，同时市场对中国酒类行业的投资情绪有望改善；H股目标价维持58.8港元，A股目 标价维持81.6元，A/H股评级均由"持有"上调至"买入"。 中银国际发表研究报告指，青岛啤酒上半年净利润按年增长7.2%，收入按年增长2.1%，均符合预期。 次季销量增长较首季略有放缓，但平均售价稳定。如按年比较，次季利润率改善速度较首季加快。 ...

证券研究报告 港股通 青岛啤酒 (168 HK/600600 CH) Q2 量价增长，成本红利延续 华泰研究 中报点评 2025 年 8 月 27 日│中国内地/中国香港 饮料 公司发布 25H1 业绩：25H1 营收/归母净利/扣非归母净利 204.9/39.0/36.3 亿元，同比+2.1%/+7.2%/+6.0%；对应 25Q2 营收/归母净利/扣非归母净利 100.5/21.9/20.3 亿元，同比+1.3%/+7.3%/+6.0%。收入端，25Q2 啤酒销量 /吨酒收入同比+1.0%/+0.3%，受禁酒令影响、Q2 餐饮端需求相对偏弱，低 基数下销量有所增长，白啤、经典增长拉动结构升级拉动与吨价提升；盈利 端，受益原材料成本下行与内部轻量化管理，Q2 毛利率/归母净利率同比 +3.0/+1.2pct 至 45.8%/21.8%。展望来看，随着禁酒令影响逐步减弱，成本 红利延续，下半年盈利韧性有望保持，维持"买入"。 深耕国内国际市场，贯彻执行多产品组合战略 25H1 公司啤酒销量 473.2 万吨，同比+2.3%，吨酒收入同比-0.1%，其中 Q2 销量/吨酒收入同比+1.0%/+0.3%。销量端， ...