Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the essential consumer goods sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and others [1]. Core Insights - The wholesale prices of Baijiu have mostly declined, while prices for instant foods and condiments have rebounded [1][10]. - Discounts for convenience foods and seasonings have narrowed compared to the end of October, indicating a potential recovery in consumer spending [19][38]. - The report highlights the stability of discounts for infant formula and beer, while discounts for liquid milk and soft drinks have increased [21][38]. Summary by Sections Baijiu Pricing - The wholesale prices for various Baijiu brands, such as Moutai and Wuliangye, have shown significant declines compared to previous months and year-to-date figures [9][40]. - For instance, the price of Feitian Moutai (case) is 1650 yuan, down by 110 yuan from last month, and down 590 yuan year-to-date [40]. Consumer Goods Discounts - Convenience foods have seen an increase in average and median discount rates, moving from 93.2%/95.9% at the end of October to 95.8%/97.0% [19][38]. - Seasonings also experienced a rise in discount rates, from 83.7%/84.9% to 85.9%/88.9% [19][38]. - In contrast, liquid milk discounts have widened, with average rates dropping from 69.6% to 66.0% [21][38]. Company Ratings - The report lists several companies with an "Outperform" rating, including: - Guizhou Moutai - Wuliangye - Luzhou Laojiao - Shanxi Fenjiu - Yanghe - Others [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage industry, highlighting several key companies as investment opportunities [3][4]. Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is experiencing internal rotation in new consumption and improvement at the bottom of traditional consumption. The overall performance in 2025 was weak, primarily due to the adjustment in the liquor sector, but the long-term recovery trend for mass consumer goods remains intact [3][8]. - For 2026, structural opportunities are expected to continue, with new consumption showing internal rotation and traditional consumption gradually recovering from the bottom [3][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In 2025, the food and beverage sector's revenue grew by only 0.1% year-on-year, while profits fell by 14.6%, underperforming compared to the previous year. The industry index ranked last among 31 sub-industries with a decline of 4.8% [8][11]. - The adjustment in the liquor sector is identified as the main factor for the overall weak performance, while the recovery trend for mass consumer goods is expected to persist [8][11]. Soft Drinks - The beverage industry is projected to benefit from a rebound in travel demand in 2026, with a revenue increase of 6.2% in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [42][45]. - Cost advantages from declining prices of raw materials like sugar and PET are expected to continue, enhancing profit margins for beverage companies [45][49]. Snacks - The konjac snack sector is experiencing high growth, with companies like Salted Fish and Wei Long achieving significant revenue increases in 2025 [66][67]. - The competitive landscape for konjac products is expected to remain manageable, with established brands likely to maintain their market positions despite new entrants [70][76]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is anticipated to see a recovery in supply-demand balance, with raw milk prices expected to stabilize in 2026 due to ongoing supply adjustments [38][39]. - Policies promoting consumption are expected to benefit liquid milk and milk powder sales, driving demand improvements [38][39]. Frozen and Condiment Products - The frozen food sector is expected to see performance improvements as competition stabilizes, with a focus on recovery in demand [38][39]. - The condiment sector is also projected to benefit from a gradual recovery in consumer demand [38][39]. Liquor - The liquor industry is still in an adjustment phase but is gradually approaching a bottoming out stage, with supply clearing expected to continue into 2026 [6][25]. - The report suggests that the long-term value of liquor stocks will become more apparent as the market stabilizes [6][25]. Investment Recommendations - Key companies to watch include Dongpeng Beverage, Nongfu Spring, and Moutai in the beverage sector, as well as Wei Long and Salted Fish in the snack sector [6][8].

食品饮料行业 超配 （维持） 曙光渐近，蓄力前行 食品饮料行业 2026 年上半年投资策略 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523020001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn 食品饮料（申万）指数走势 2025 年 11 月 24 日 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：黄冬祎 资料来源：同花顺，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 投 资 策 略 行 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 推荐 ◼ 食品饮料行业今年1-10月跑输沪深300指数。受需求弱复苏以及禁酒 令等因素影响，食品饮料行业今年走势较弱。2025年1-10月份（截至 2025年10月31日），SW食品饮料行业指数整体下跌5.52%，跌幅在所有 申万一级行业中最大，跑输同期沪深300指数23.46个百分点。细分板 块中，所有 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [4] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector in A-shares has shown a 1.34% increase over the past two weeks, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.41 percentage points [12] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive in October, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, indicating a potential recovery in consumer sentiment [3][62] - The report highlights a structural shift in dairy imports towards high-value products, driven by changing consumer preferences for low-fat, high-protein, and organic options [7][62] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - A-shares in the food and beverage industry rose by 1.34% from November 10 to November 21, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.41 percentage points [12] - Within the sector, dairy (+6.67%), processed foods (+2.60%), and liquor (+2.52%) saw the highest gains, while soft drinks (-4.27%), health products (-2.25%), and snacks (-1.02%) experienced declines [12] 2. Key Data Tracking - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas is 3.03 yuan/kg, down 2.9% year-on-year [39] - The national market price for pork is 23.13 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 19.7% [44] - The price of PET (water bottle grade) is 6,100 yuan/ton, down 3.9% year-on-year [44] 3. Key Events Tracking - The October CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, with food prices decreasing by 2.9% [3][62] - Retail sales in October grew by 2.9% year-on-year, with significant increases in the sales of grain, oil, and beverages [3][62] - Dairy imports have returned to positive growth, driven by strong demand for high-end products [7][62] 4. Important Company Announcements - Yili Group plans to maintain a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% over the next three years [63] - Huangtai Liquor's major shareholder intends to increase their stake in the company through market purchases [63] 5. Investment Recommendations - For liquor, focus on high-end brands with strong market positions such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [8][65] - In the consumer goods sector, consider companies in the snack and energy drink markets, as well as those benefiting from the recovery of the dairy and restaurant supply chains [8][65]

Core Insights - The article highlights the entrepreneurial journey of Bai Xuejun, who has over 40 years of experience in the liquor industry, emphasizing the importance of practical action, market presence, and strategic thinking in achieving success [3][5][16] Group 1: Entrepreneurial Journey - Bai Xuejun started from a poor background and faced significant challenges, including dropping out of school due to financial constraints, but he persevered and gradually built a successful liquor business [7][8] - His initial foray into the market involved selling low-cost beverages and later transitioning to logistics for breweries, which laid the foundation for his future success in the liquor industry [7][8] - Bai's innovative approach to business included recycling beer bottles and establishing a supply chain, which allowed him to become a key supplier for local breweries [7][11] Group 2: Market Strategy - Bai Xuejun's strategy involved direct engagement with the market, where he visited stores and built relationships with local business owners to understand their needs and drive product sales [9][10] - He implemented a successful promotional campaign by offering free tastings of his products, which significantly boosted sales and market penetration in his region [10][11] - His company, Bai's Liquor Store, became the largest beer distributor in the Linyi area, selling approximately 20,000 tons of Qingdao beer annually, and was recognized as a benchmark case by Qingdao Beer at national distributor conferences [11][12] Group 3: Industry Insights - Bai Xuejun has shown a keen ability to identify market trends, such as the rising popularity of yellow wine among younger consumers, and has secured new agency contracts to capitalize on this growth [12][13] - His understanding of the liquor market's dynamics, including the importance of supply chain management and sales strategies, has positioned his business favorably amidst industry changes [11][16] - Bai's unique approach, termed "Bai's Military Strategy," combines supply chain management, market presence, and trend forecasting, serving as a practical model for other liquor businesses facing industry challenges [16]

Core Viewpoint - The Qingdao Beer Biotechnology Co., Ltd. has officially commenced the construction of its production base project, which aims to utilize innovative biotechnological processes to enhance the value of by-products from beer production [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The project is located in the Qingdao Beer Smart Industrial Park and is based on Qingdao Beer's technological innovation system in the field of bioprocessing [1] - It employs globally leading directed enzyme technology to convert brewing by-products such as proliferating yeast and saccharification residues into high-value products like high-end yeast extracts and barley peptides [1] Group 2: Market Applications - The high-value products generated from this project will be widely used in various sectors, including food seasoning, brewing, and health nutrition [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a notable shift towards stock selection and sector rotation, with over 50 stocks upgraded and more than 90 downgraded in ratings, indicating a more cautious market sentiment and a focus on structural opportunities in technology, consumption, and dividend sectors [1][2][3]. Stock Rating Adjustments - Over the past month, 52 stocks have been upgraded, with the food and beverage sector having the highest number of upgrades at 7 stocks, followed by electronics and power equipment with 5 each, and pharmaceuticals and light industry with 4 each [1]. - Conversely, 92 stocks have been downgraded across 25 industries, with the automotive sector leading with 12 downgrades, followed by food and beverage with 10, and basic chemicals with 9 [2][3]. Sector Analysis - In the food and beverage sector, several companies such as Baba Foods and Ximai Foods have seen their ratings upgraded due to improved revenue growth and store efficiency [2]. - The electronics sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in terminal demand, with companies like Crystal Technology and Green Link Technology receiving upgrades [2]. - The automotive sector has faced downgrades due to short-term performance pressures, with companies like Meihu and New Spring seeing their ratings lowered [3]. Market Trends and Strategies - Analysts suggest that the market is moving towards a balanced style, with a preference for large-cap stocks and a potential shift towards value stocks [4]. - The focus on growth stocks remains, but the key is whether the underlying valuation logic changes, which could drive future performance [4]. - Investment opportunities are seen in themes such as anti-involution and dividend stocks, with a particular emphasis on technology sectors that align with national strategies and possess real technological barriers [5].

Core Insights - Qingdao Beer’s premium brand Augerta has formed a strategic partnership with the Australian Open, becoming the official partner for the event in China, highlighting a blend of quality lifestyle and sports [1][3] Group 1: Brand and Event Collaboration - The partnership between Augerta and the Australian Open represents a fusion of two century-old brands, emphasizing a shared pursuit of high-quality and elegant experiences [3][5] - Augerta aims to create a new social experience that combines tennis with the enjoyment of beer, appealing to urban consumers who view tennis as a modern lifestyle choice [2][7] Group 2: Product Quality and Innovation - Augerta’s product line, including Augerta Classic, A3, and A6, reflects a commitment to quality, with the Classic series winning a gold medal at the World Beer Cup in 2019 [5][6] - The Augerta A6, with a unique 258ml bottle design, is crafted using a special blend of European malts and hops, showcasing both aesthetic appeal and high-quality brewing techniques [6][7] Group 3: Consumer Engagement and Marketing Strategy - The collaboration with the Australian Open allows Augerta to engage consumers through promotional activities, including a chance to win tickets to the event, aligning with the festive atmosphere of the Chinese New Year [7][8] - Augerta’s marketing strategy focuses on appealing to young consumers' desire for an upgraded lifestyle and social experience, integrating the brand into everyday social settings [7][8]

Investment Highlights - The report indicates a clear turning point for the food and beverage industry following accelerated clearance, with expectations for leading sectors to initiate recovery [2][7] - The overall revenue for the food and beverage sector showed a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 4.6% in the first three quarters of 2025 [18][20] - In Q3 2025, the sector experienced a significant decline, with revenues and net profits dropping by 4.9% and 14.6% respectively [18][20] Sector Review 1. Overall Review - The food and beverage sector faced continuous pressure and adjustments, with traditional consumption accelerating clearance while new consumption trends continued to grow [18][20] - The white liquor segment saw a revenue decline of 18.4% and a net profit decline of 22.2% in Q3 2025, indicating significant pressure on the sector [20][22] - In contrast, sectors like snacks and beverages maintained double-digit growth due to product and channel innovations [20][21] 2. White Liquor - The white liquor industry is undergoing accelerated clearance, with varying rhythms among companies. The demand has weakened, leading to noticeable declines in revenue and net profit for most companies [22][25] - High-end liquor maintained some growth, with Moutai achieving a revenue increase of 0.3% in Q3 2025, while other brands like Wuliangye saw declines exceeding 50% [23][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-demand balance and pricing as key indicators for the industry's recovery [22][23] 3. Low-Alcohol Beverages and Drinks - The beer segment showed stable performance with a revenue increase of 2.0% and a net profit increase of 11.8% in the first three quarters of 2025 [21][22] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in demand for low-alcohol beverages and drinks, driven by health trends and product innovation [22][23] 4. Consumer Goods - The dairy sector is gradually stabilizing, with upstream supply clearing and downstream processing demand increasing, leading to a potential balance in the raw milk cycle [31][33] - The snack sector, particularly the konjac and oat categories, is expected to maintain high growth rates, supported by the expansion of new retail channels [31][36] - The report notes that the overall demand for dining remains weak, but specific segments like Western-style condiments and frozen baking show structural opportunities [31][33] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are early in their clearance processes and have strong brand momentum, such as Gujing Gongjiu and Luzhou Laojiao [11][12] - For low-alcohol beverages, attention is drawn to leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and Tsingtao Brewery, which are expected to benefit from demand recovery [11][12] - In the consumer goods sector, companies with strong performance and cost advantages, such as Yili and Modern Dairy, are recommended for investment [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition plan of Jimo Yellow Wine by Qingdao Beer has failed, raising concerns about the company's diversification strategy and future growth opportunities [2][4]. Company Strategy - Qingdao Beer had high hopes for the acquisition of Jimo Yellow Wine, as it would provide seasonal product complementarity, with beer consumption peaking in summer and yellow wine in autumn and winter [2]. - Despite the failed acquisition, Qingdao Beer’s chairman stated that the company's diversification strategy remains unchanged, and they will consider new acquisition opportunities in the future [2]. Financial Performance - Qingdao Beer reported a revenue of 32.138 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year, marking the first decline in both revenue and sales since the pandemic [4]. - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a revenue of 29.366 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.274 billion yuan, up 5.7% year-on-year [4]. - However, in the third quarter, revenue saw a slight decline of 0.17%, and the growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders dropped to 1.62% [4]. Market Context - The beer industry is entering a phase of stock competition, making it imperative for Qingdao Beer to find new growth avenues beyond its core business [4]. - The failure of the Jimo Yellow Wine acquisition highlights the challenges faced by Qingdao Beer in its pursuit of diversification and growth [4].