2025 年 10 月 10 日 工业硅：上游继续复产，逢高布空思路 多晶硅：市场消息再次发酵，关注实际落地 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 资料来源：SMM，百川盈孚，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） | 8,640 | 0 | -380 | 145 | | | | Si2511成交量（手） | 210,531 | -17,589 | -143,236 | -149,325 | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） | 176,563 | 2,165 | -94,368 | -108,886 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | 50,765 | -595 | -615 | - | | | | PS2511成交量（手） | 201,311 | 37,997 | -40,705 ...

10月7日电 国际能源署7日发布的《2025年可再生能源报告》预测，尽管面临供应链和资金压力、电网 整合挑战及政策不确定性等不利因素，全球可再生能源装机容量仍将强劲增长，预计未来5年全球可再 生能源新增装机容量将达到之前5年增量的两倍。 报告显示，未来5年，全球可再生能源增长主要由太阳能光伏产业带动，得益于低成本和审批流程提 速，太阳能光伏发电增长预计将占全球可再生能源装机容量增长的约80%。预计风能发电在新增可再生 能源装机容量中占比位居第二，尽管面临短期挑战，但随着供应瓶颈缓解和项目推进，风电仍将大幅增 长，特别是在中国、欧盟和印度。此外，水电以及生物能、地热能等其他可再生能源技术将继续在支持 电力系统和提高灵活性等方面发挥重要作用。 报告说，在亚洲、中东和非洲的新兴经济体中，成本竞争力和更强的政策支持正在刺激可再生能源更快 增长，多国政府相继推出新的招标计划并提高发展目标。 报告预测，2025至2030年期间，全球可再生能源装机容量将增加4600吉瓦，大致相当于中国、欧盟和日 本当前装机容量总和。 国际能源署署长法提赫·比罗尔在一份公报中说，未来5年，除了成熟市场，预计太阳能光伏发电在沙特 阿拉伯、巴基 ...

报告说，在亚洲、中东和非洲的新兴经济体中，成本竞争力和更强的政策支持正在刺激可再生能源更快 增长，多国政府相继推出新的招标计划并提高发展目标。 新华社巴黎10月7日电 （记者罗毓）国际能源署7日发布的《2025年可再生能源报告》预测，尽管面临 供应链和资金压力、电网整合挑战及政策不确定性等不利因素，全球可再生能源装机容量仍将强劲增 长，预计未来5年全球可再生能源新增装机容量将达到之前5年增量的两倍。 报告预测，2025至2030年期间，全球可再生能源装机容量将增加4600吉瓦，大致相当于中国、欧盟和日 本当前装机容量总和。 报告显示，未来5年，全球可再生能源增长主要由太阳能光伏产业带动，得益于低成本和审批流程提 速，太阳能光伏发电增长预计将占全球可再生能源装机容量增长的约80%。预计风能发电在新增可再生 能源装机容量中占比位居第二，尽管面临短期挑战，但随着供应瓶颈缓解和项目推进，风电仍将大幅增 长，特别是在中国、欧盟和印度。此外，水电以及生物能、地热能等其他可再生能源技术将继续在支持 电力系统和提高灵活性等方面发挥重要作用。 国际能源署署长法提赫·比罗尔在一份公报中说，未来5年，除了成熟市场，预计太阳能光伏发 ...

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts strong growth in global renewable energy capacity despite challenges such as supply chain issues, funding pressures, grid integration challenges, and policy uncertainties [1] - The report forecasts that the global renewable energy capacity will increase by 4,600 gigawatts (GW) from 2025 to 2030, roughly equivalent to the current total capacity of China, the European Union, and Japan combined [1] - Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology is expected to drive approximately 80% of the growth in global renewable energy capacity due to its low costs and expedited approval processes [1] Renewable Energy Growth Drivers - Wind energy is projected to have the second-largest share in new renewable energy capacity, with significant growth anticipated in China, Europe, and India despite short-term challenges [1] - Other renewable technologies such as hydropower, biomass, and geothermal energy will continue to play important roles in supporting power systems and enhancing flexibility [1] Regional Insights - Emerging economies in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa are experiencing faster growth in renewable energy due to cost competitiveness and stronger policy support, with many governments launching new bidding plans and raising development targets [1] - Solar PV is expected to see rapid growth in countries like Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and several Southeast Asian nations over the next five years [1] Policy Considerations - As the role of renewable energy in power systems increases, policymakers are advised to closely monitor challenges related to supply chain security and grid integration [1]

Group 1 - Fossil fuels still dominate the global energy structure, accounting for 87% of the total [1] - Renewable energy (excluding hydropower) is the fastest-growing energy type globally, with a growth rate of 9% [1] - China is the main driver of renewable energy growth, contributing 57% of the world's new wind and solar power generation [1] - Solar power generation in China has nearly doubled in two years [1] Group 2 - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that the recent policy on market-oriented pricing for renewable energy will promote full market entry for renewables [4] - Increased competition in the renewable energy sector is expected, which may accelerate the recovery of national renewable energy subsidies [4] - This development is likely to alleviate cash flow pressures for green power operators, benefiting long-term industry growth [4]

Core Insights - Zhengxiangbaiqi Fengsheng Power Generation Co., Ltd. has welcomed a significant shareholder, ICBC Financial Asset Investment Co., Ltd., leading to a notable change in its equity structure and a substantial increase in registered capital from approximately 730 million RMB to about 1.2 billion RMB [1][2][5] Company Overview - Established in January 2015, Zhengxiangbaiqi Fengsheng Power Generation Co., Ltd. focuses on investment, operation, and services in the wind energy sector, contributing to the clean energy field under the leadership of its legal representative, Ma Junhua [1][3][4] - The company has achieved significant accomplishments in wind energy generation and is actively exploring new technologies and models for greater breakthroughs in the clean energy sector [3][5] Shareholder Structure - Following the recent business change, the company's shareholder structure has shifted, with TBEA Xinjiang New Energy Co., Ltd. and the newly added ICBC Financial Asset Investment Co., Ltd. now jointly holding shares [1][2][6] - TBEA Xinjiang New Energy Co., Ltd. holds approximately 60.95% of the shares, while ICBC Financial Asset Investment Co., Ltd. holds about 39.05% [6] Future Prospects - The addition of ICBC Financial Asset Investment Co., Ltd. is expected to inject new vitality and financial support into Zhengxiangbaiqi Fengsheng Power Generation Co., Ltd., enhancing its competitiveness in the wind energy sector [2][5] - The company plans to increase investments and research efforts in wind energy, while also seeking more domestic and international cooperation opportunities to achieve greater advancements in the clean energy field [5]

地球"热麻了"！ 6月葡萄牙莫拉地区46.6℃；西班牙局部地区46℃，打破1965年以来纪录；法国40.9℃，创气温新高；意 大利对21城发布最高级别红色警报…… 今年入汛以来，我国平均高温日数为历史同期最多；今年立夏至大暑节气期间，我国平均气温为1961年 以来最高；截至8月7日，国家级气象站已有94个打破8月高温纪录。 全球是否正面临热浪常态化趋势？高温天气对经济运行会产生哪些直接和间接影响？我们又该如何应 对？ 极端高温对经济的直接影响集中体现为对生产系统的物理性冲击，包括电网峰值负荷持续突破上限触发 工业限电，迫使企业停工停产；高温导致航道水深下降，抬升物流成本；高温干旱引发农作物热害，造 成产量锐减。 近日，《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称NBD）对国家气候中心气候变化监测预估室正研级高工柳艳 菊、业务系统发展与运控室高级工程师张思齐、气候服务室高级工程师崔童、气候预测室高级工程师吕 卓卓、气候变化影响适应室副研究员黄大鹏、气候变化战略研究室工程师徐源等6位专家进行专访，请 他们详细解读高温对经济的影响。 地球正在经历热浪常态化 NBD：近年来，全球多地高温频频刷新纪录，我们是否正面临热浪常态化趋势？ ...

Group 1 - The core theme of the BRICS summit held in Rio de Janeiro was to strengthen cooperation among Global South countries and promote more inclusive and sustainable governance, marking a significant step towards global governance after the expansion to 11 member countries [1] - The summit highlighted the importance of renewable energy development and accelerating energy transition as key topics, especially in the context of profound changes in the global energy landscape and climate change governance [1] - The expanded BRICS member countries now represent over half of the global population and account for one-third of the world's GDP based on purchasing power parity, surpassing the G7, and play a crucial role in the global energy market [1] Group 2 - BRICS countries have seen a gradual decline in the share of fossil fuel power generation, with projections indicating that by the end of 2024, fossil fuel power generation will drop to nearly 50% [2] - BRICS nations are leading in global solar power generation, with their share expected to reach 51% of global power generation by 2024, a significant increase from 15% a decade ago, driven mainly by China, India, and Brazil [2] - The New Development Bank of BRICS has approved financing of $39 billion for over 120 projects, significantly increasing the share of clean energy projects [2] Group 3 - China is positioned as a leader in renewable energy and is a major driver of rapid growth in this sector, collaborating with over 100 countries and regions on green energy projects [3] - The New Development Bank aims to support energy transition in Southern countries by restructuring green finance standards and expanding green financing [3] - BRICS countries are expected to accumulate practical experience in renewable energy development and actively participate in the international discourse on energy transition and climate change, opposing unilateral green protectionism [3]

Group 1 - The national maximum electricity load reached 1.465 billion kilowatts on July 4, an increase of approximately 200 million kilowatts compared to the end of June, marking a historical high and a year-on-year growth of nearly 150 million kilowatts [1] - Various power generation companies, including Datang Huayin Power Co., have fully activated their thermal power units to ensure stable electricity supply during the high-temperature period [1] - Companies are actively responding to the electricity supply challenges by deploying "wind, solar, water, fire, and storage" projects to work in synergy [2] Group 2 - Inner Mongolia Mengdian Huaneng Thermal Power Co. provides stable thermal power supply with an installed capacity of 11.4 million kilowatts, while Hebei Jiantou Energy Investment Co. controls over 20% of the coal-fired installed capacity in Hebei's power grid [2] - Jiangsu New Energy Development Co. has diversified its renewable energy portfolio, with wind power capacity of 1.14 million kilowatts and solar power capacity of 170,000 kilowatts, contributing to summer electricity supply [3] - Huazi Technology Co. is leading in the energy storage and microgrid sectors, providing comprehensive lifecycle services and actively participating in summer electricity supply efforts [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recently passed Republican budget bill in the Senate eliminates tax credits for renewable energy projects, which could significantly impact the solar and wind energy industries and lead to increased utility bills for American households [1][5][14]. Legislative Process - The Senate passed the bill with a narrow margin of 51 votes in favor and 50 against, with Vice President JD Vance casting the deciding vote [1]. - The bill has been sent to the House of Representatives for final legislative approval, where it cleared procedural hurdles with a vote of 219 to 213 [2]. Tax Implications - The final version of the bill retains some incentives for advanced nuclear, geothermal, and hydropower technologies until 2032, but it significantly reduces incentives for solar and wind energy projects [8]. - The bill allows full tax credits for wind and solar projects that commence within one year of the law's enactment, with a deadline for completion set for the end of 2027 for projects starting later [7]. Industry Reactions - The American Petroleum Institute welcomed the bill, viewing it as a historic piece of legislation that opens up investment opportunities and expands access to oil and gas development [6][7]. - Conversely, the Solar Energy Industries Association expressed concerns that the bill would undermine the recovery of American manufacturing and lead to higher utility bills for families, factory closures, and increased unemployment [5][14]. Political Perspectives - Republican senators argue that the bill will save taxpayers money and support traditional energy sources, while Democrats criticize it as destructive and harmful to the healthcare system and the environment [10][11][12]. - Some Republican senators, like Lisa Murkowski, acknowledged the difficult decision-making process regarding the bill, emphasizing the need to consider the interests of their constituents [9][10].