证券日报网讯1月19日，博汇纸业（600966）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司旗下"博汇天 鹅"牌胶版印刷纸已入选上海期货交易所胶版印刷纸期货首批交割认证品牌，且公司获准成为首批交割 厂库，相关产品执行标准价。公司将严格遵循交易所规定，保障交割商品质量与交割业务规范开展，助 力行业绿色循环发展。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growth in the number of enterprises in the paper and paper products industry in China, with a total of 8,167 companies reported as of January-November 2025, marking an increase of 125 companies or 1.55% year-on-year [1] - The proportion of the paper and paper products industry enterprises in relation to the total number of industrial enterprises stands at 1.55% [1] - The data indicates a shift in the threshold for large-scale industrial enterprises, with the minimum annual main business income requirement raised from 5 million yuan to 20 million yuan since 2011 [1] Group 2 - The report referenced is titled "Analysis of Development Models and Market Operation Potential of the Chinese Paper Industry from 2026 to 2032" published by Zhiyan Consulting [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services [2] - The firm emphasizes its commitment to providing comprehensive industry solutions to empower investment decisions through professional insights and quality services [2]

Group 1 - The paper sector experienced a decline of 0.34% on January 16, with Annie Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4101.91, down 0.26%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14281.08, down 0.18% [1] - Key stocks in the paper sector showed varied performance, with Guanmeng High-tech rising by 7.50% to a closing price of 3.44, while Annie Co. fell by 6.45% to 10.45 [2] Group 2 - The paper sector saw a net outflow of 14.20 million yuan from institutional investors and 24.42 million yuan from retail investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 38.62 million yuan [2] - The detailed fund flow indicates that Guanmeng High-tech had a net inflow of 61.24 million yuan from institutional investors, while Annie Co. experienced a net outflow of 53.74 million yuan from retail investors [3] - The overall trading volume in the paper sector was significant, with Guanmeng High-tech achieving a transaction amount of 485 million yuan [1][2]

Market Overview - The paper sector experienced a decline of 0.61% on January 15, with Minshida leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4112.6, down 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14306.73, up 0.41% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the paper sector included: - Rongsheng Environmental: closed at 13.40, up 1.21% with a trading volume of 29,700 lots [1] - Qifeng New Materials: closed at 8.60, up 0.82% with a trading volume of 78,600 lots [1] - Significant decliners included: - Minshida: closed at 53.00, down 7.70% with a trading volume of 62,500 lots [2] - Zhishi Paper: closed at 5.39, down 3.23% with a trading volume of 735,700 lots [2] Capital Flow - The paper sector saw a net outflow of 268 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 151 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for specific stocks showed: - Sun Paper: net inflow of 15.85 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Bohui Paper: net inflow of 5.85 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Qifeng New Materials: net inflow of 1.68 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Core Insights - The RCEP agreement has significantly benefited Zibo's manufacturing sector by providing substantial tariff reductions, enhancing competitiveness in international markets [2][4] Group 1: Tariff Benefits - Zibo's companies have enjoyed over 300 million yuan in tariff reductions since the implementation of RCEP, with a total export value of 6.38 billion yuan benefiting from these reductions [2] - The issuance of RCEP certificates has reached 26,000, allowing local products to enjoy tariff exemptions, which has been crucial for maintaining and expanding market presence in ASEAN countries [2][4] Group 2: Operational Efficiency - Companies like Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co., Ltd. have reported significant operational efficiencies, with the ability to self-print RCEP certificates through an online system, saving approximately 200 man-hours annually [3] - The Zibo Customs has optimized its services, achieving over 99% of RCEP certificates processed with "instant review and self-printing," facilitating easier access for businesses [2][3] Group 3: Market Expansion - The RCEP agreement has enabled Zibo companies to transition from passive observers to active participants in the market, enhancing their international competitiveness and expanding their global reach [4] - In 2025, Zibo enterprises applied for over 7,900 RCEP certificates, with a total value of 1.83 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.3% and 9.5% respectively [3]

Summary of the Conference Call for Bohui Paper Industry Company Overview - Bohui Paper Industry is a leading player in the white card paper industry with production bases in Shandong and Jiangsu, totaling a capacity of 4.25 million tons, including 2.65 million tons of white card paper. Together with APP's 4 million tons capacity, they account for nearly 40% of the industry share [2][3] Key Points and Arguments - **Ownership and Management**: APP holds 48.84% of Bohui's shares through market acquisitions and has appointed senior management to enhance operational capabilities. The management team is experienced, and the company has shown a historical revenue CAGR of 15% and a capacity CAGR of 12% [4][5] - **Profitability Fluctuations**: Bohui's profitability per ton has varied significantly with market cycles, peaking at 550 RMB/ton in 2021 and projected to drop to 42 RMB/ton in 2024. The revenue structure shows that whiteboard products account for 61%, cultural paper for 25%, and overseas revenue has increased to 16% [6] - **Market Dynamics**: The paper industry is transitioning from passive destocking to active restocking, with white card companies having raised prices cumulatively by 600 RMB/ton. Factors such as rising hardwood pulp prices, low inventory levels, and profit-seeking behavior are expected to drive white card prices upward [8][9] - **Supply Concerns**: Despite concerns about oversupply, the high concentration of the industry allows major players to collaborate effectively, limiting production and reducing inventory to support price increases. The marginal increase in new supply is expected to alleviate oversupply worries, with prices anticipated to recover from the bottom by 2026 [10] - **Impact of Competitors**: The shutdown of Chenming, which had a production capacity of 2.05 million tons (12% of the industry), has improved overall utilization rates and increased the CR3 ratio, enhancing Bohui's and APP's bargaining power in the market [11] Additional Important Insights - **Financial Performance of APP**: In 2024, APP's revenue is projected to reach 89.4 billion RMB with a profit of approximately 2.8 billion RMB, showcasing its strength as an integrated paper company [12] - **Competitive Advantages**: APP's extensive forestry resources and production capabilities allow for cost reductions in raw materials and energy, enhancing Bohui's operational efficiency. The integration of APP's resources has led to a lower cost of production for Bohui [13][15] - **Resolution of Competition Issues**: APP has committed to resolving competition issues with Bohui by September 2026, which could significantly enhance Bohui's revenue and profit if APP's additional capacities are integrated [16][17] - **Investment Recommendation**: Given the expected improvements in demand, market concentration, and profitability potential, Bohui is considered a highly valuable investment opportunity [18]

Core Insights - The surface sizing agents play a crucial role in enhancing the performance of paper products, with a nearly 100% retention rate, significantly reducing material loss and costs compared to internal sizing agents [1][7] - The market size for China's paper surface sizing agents is projected to reach 5.52 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 2% year-on-year increase, driven by rising demands for surface performance in cultural, packaging, and corrugated papers [1][6] - The global market for paper surface sizing agents is expected to grow from 1.09 billion USD in 2024 to 1.114 billion USD in 2025, influenced by the increasing standards for water resistance, oil resistance, and surface strength in packaging and specialty papers [6][10] Industry Overview - Paper surface sizing agents are additives used to enhance the surface strength of paper and prevent liquid penetration, primarily categorized into internal and surface sizing agents [3][4] - Surface sizing agents, mainly composed of styrene-ester copolymers, improve the cross-linking strength and hydrophobicity of paper coatings, offering advantages such as mechanical stability and reduced foaming [3][4] - The demand for surface sizing agents is expected to grow as consumer requirements for paper performance increase, with China being the largest producer and consumer of paper globally [4][6] Market Dynamics - The production and consumption of paper and paperboard in China are projected to reach 136.25 million tons and 136.34 million tons respectively in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.09% and 3.56% [4][5] - The highest market shares in paper and paperboard production in 2024 are held by corrugated base paper (23.08%) and boxboard (22.28%), while boxboard leads in consumption (26.27%) [5][6] Competitive Landscape - The paper surface sizing agent industry is characterized by a large number of small-scale enterprises, with major players dominating the market due to their technological and financial advantages [8][9] - Key companies in the industry include Huasoft Technology, ST Morning Paper, Bohui Paper, and others, with Huasoft Technology being a leading producer of paper chemicals [8][9] Future Trends - The demand for environmentally friendly and multifunctional surface sizing agents is expected to rise, prompting companies to invest in the development of new products such as water-based and bio-based agents [11][12] - The competitive landscape is anticipated to become more intense, with leading companies focusing on technological advancements and new entrants bringing fresh competition, leading to potential industry consolidation [12]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Southwest Securities indicates that the performance of the light industry sector in 2025 is expected to be flat, with cyclical and traditional manufacturing valuations under pressure, while packaging, exports, and personal care sectors show differentiated performance [1] 2025 Sector Review - In 2025, the light industry sector experienced relatively flat performance, with traditional cyclical and manufacturing companies facing valuation pressure. However, the packaging and printing sectors benefited from price increases and cross-industry transformations, leading to better stock performance [1] - The export sector showed some differentiation due to tariff policy disruptions, with companies that have balanced production capacity, strong demand resilience, and low tariff impact performing better [1] - The personal care sector achieved excess returns in the first half of the year but entered a valuation digestion phase in the second half due to intensified competition in e-commerce channels. However, domestic brands are expected to continue their growth trajectory due to product structure optimization and channel expansion [1] 2026 Stock Selection Strategy - The focus will be on undervalued cyclical assets as valuation recovery is anticipated amid changes in the bulk commodity cycle, gradually realizing allocation value [2] - There is a need to balance the valuation and growth potential of new consumption and export sectors, favoring high-growth or low-valuation, high-safety stocks [2] - Four main lines of focus for stock selection include: 1. Gradually emphasizing undervalued cyclical stocks, particularly in the paper sector, which is expected to see price increases driven by "anti-involution" and traditional peak season factors, with net profit per ton likely to recover [2] 2. Export stocks with strong demand resilience and manufacturing capabilities are still considered valuable for allocation, especially those with good growth potential in niche categories and minimal tariff impact [2] 3. Domestic personal care brands are expected to see upward trends in market share and growth potential due to rapid product iteration and competitive pricing [2] 4. New consumption trends in AI glasses, new tobacco products, pet supplies, and trendy toys are expected to continue their upward trajectory, contributing to the growth of the consumption sector [2] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Sun Paper, Bohui Paper, Weigao Medical, Baiya Co., Nobon Co., Yiyi Co., Mengbaihe, and Gujia Home [3]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of capitalizing on emotional consumption trends and reassessing cyclical value in the light of the 2026 investment strategy for the light industry sector [1][3]. 2025 Sector Review - In 2025, the light industry sector experienced relatively flat performance, with traditional cyclical and manufacturing companies facing valuation pressure. However, packaging and printing sectors benefited from price increases and cross-industry transformations, leading to better stock performance [4]. - The export sector showed some differentiation due to tariff policy disruptions, with companies that had balanced production capacity and strong demand performing better. The personal care sector saw excess returns in the first half of the year but faced valuation digestion in the second half due to intensified e-commerce competition [4][5]. - The report suggests a dual focus for stock selection in 2026: on one hand, to pay attention to undervalued cyclical assets for valuation recovery; on the other hand, to balance the valuation and growth potential of new consumption and export sectors [4]. Stock Selection Strategy - The report recommends four main lines for stock selection: 1. Gradually focus on undervalued cyclical stocks, particularly in the paper sector, which is expected to see price increases driven by seasonal demand and low channel inventory [4]. 2. Maintain a high allocation to export stocks with strong demand resilience and manufacturing capabilities, especially those less affected by tariffs [4]. 3. Invest in high-quality domestic personal care brands benefiting from product structure optimization and channel expansion [4]. 4. Explore new consumption trends in categories like AI glasses, new tobacco products, pet supplies, and trendy toys, which are expected to see significant growth [4]. Recommended Stocks - The report lists several recommended stocks, including: - Sun Paper Industry (002078.SZ) - Bohui Paper Industry (600966.SZ) - Weigao Medical (300888.SZ) - Baiya Co., Ltd. (003006.SZ) - Nobon Co., Ltd. (603238.SH) - Yiyi Co., Ltd. (001206.SZ) - Mengbaihe (603313.SH) - Gujia Home (603816.SH) [4]. 2025 Sector Performance Data - As of December 31, 2025, the SW light industry manufacturing sector had an overall increase of 20.1%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.7 percentage points. The packaging and printing sector performed particularly well with a 35.4% increase [12]. - The report highlights that the packaging sector benefited from price increases and cross-industry transformations, while the home and entertainment sectors also saw significant gains [12][14]. Export Sector Insights - The report notes that from November 2025, the U.S. reduced tariffs on Chinese imports to 20%, leading to a gradual recovery in orders. The fluctuations in tariff policies had previously caused delays in orders from U.S. buyers [76]. - The report indicates that the export sector is expected to see a return to competitive pricing against ASEAN countries following the tariff adjustments, which may accelerate industry consolidation [76][81]. Personal Care Sector Trends - The personal care sector is experiencing product structure upgrades and channel benefits, with brands focusing on high-demand segments such as oral care and women's hygiene products [31][50]. - The report forecasts that the market for women's hygiene products will reach 1079.6 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.0% from 2025 to 2029 [50][51]. Baby Care Market Dynamics - The baby care market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.1% from 2025 to 2029, with a focus on premiumization and specialized products to counteract declining birth rates [59][66]. - The report highlights that single-child consumption is increasing, which helps mitigate the impact of declining birth rates on the market [69].

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600235 | 民丰特纸 | 6.85 | 2.39% | 9.31万 | 6297.04万 | | 920394 | 民士达 | 45.10 | 2.06% | 3.41万 | 1.54亿 | | 002235 | 安妮股份 | 10.22 | 1.69% | 56.00万 | 5.71亿 | | 002067 | 置兴紙小 | 5.51 | 1.29% | 69.05万 | 3.80亿 | | 301469 | 恒达新材 | 30.88 | 1.21% | 2.69万 | 8268.66万 | | 605007 | 五洲特纸 | 13.33 | 0.53% | 9.11万 | 1.21亿 | | 002012 | 凯恩股份 | 6.35 | 0.47% | 12.12万 | 7697.94万 | | 600793 | 宜宾纸业 | 21.18 | 0.43% | 3.01万 | 6370.86万 | | 600356 | 恒丰纸业 | 8.8 ...