[Table_StockNameRptType] 一拖股份（601038） 公司点评 盈利端短期承压，坚定看好出海+行业大型高端化 | 投资评级：买入（维持） [Table_Rank] | | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025-04-02 | | 570 收盘价（元） | 13.75 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 20.49/13.03 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1123.65 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 731.71 | | 流通股比例（%） | 65.12 | | 总市值（亿元） | 154.50 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 100.61 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 一拖股份 沪深300 [分析师：张帆 Table_Author] 执业证书号：S0010522070003 邮箱：zhangfan@hazq.com 相关报告 ⚫ 投资建议 1.《国内农机领军者，立足中国，放眼 世界》2024-09-26 2.《业绩短期承压，看好未来长期发展》 2024-11-08 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 11.90 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.21%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.92 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.52% [4] - The company is focusing on enhancing its overseas market presence and high-end product offerings, despite short-term pressure on profitability [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 11.90 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.21% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.92 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 7.52% year-on-year [4] - The gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 14.78% and 7.82%, respectively, both showing a decrease [5] - The company sold 74,300 large and medium-sized tractors in 2024, marking a 2.73% increase year-on-year [6] - The company expects revenues of 12.56 billion yuan, 13.84 billion yuan, and 15.25 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 0.99 billion yuan, 1.09 billion yuan, and 1.20 billion yuan, respectively [7] Cost Management and Profitability - The company has optimized its cost management, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios at 1.31%, 2.98%, and 4.34%, respectively [5] - The increase in R&D expense ratio is attributed to investments in high-end, intelligent, and green technology projects [5] Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its product lineup and market competitiveness, particularly in the tractor segment [6] - The company is expanding its overseas market strategy, including a contract for supplying 301 tractors to Nigeria [6]

Summary of China Yituo's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Yituo - **Fiscal Year**: 2024 - **Industry**: Agricultural Machinery Key Financial Performance - **Revenue**: CNY 11.904 billion, up 3.26% year-on-year [3] - **Total Profit**: CNY 1.052 billion, up 4.85% year-on-year [3] - **Net Profit**: CNY 922 million, down 7.52% year-on-year due to increased tax expenses [3] - **Sales Volume of Tractors**: 74,300 units, up 2.73% year-on-year [3] - **Large Tractors**: 34,700 units, up 12% [3] - **Medium Tractors**: 39,500 units, down approximately 5% [3] - **Gross Margin**: 13.58%, slightly down [3] Product Performance - **Export of Tractors**: 7,100 units, up 8.23% year-on-year, with significant decline in the Russian market due to scrappage tax policy [3][5] - **Diesel Engine Sales**: 146,000 units, with a 6% decline in external sales [6] - **Market Trends**: Shift from quantity expansion to quality improvement in the agricultural machinery industry [7] Future Outlook - **New Product Launches**: Introduction of power shift, electronic control, and CET products in 2025, expected to increase costs and prices [8] - **International Strategy**: New chairman focusing on channel and product layout to enhance internationalization and technological innovation [9][10] - **Dividend Policy**: Plans to maintain a stable dividend rate around 36% despite high capital expenditure [13][15] Challenges and Market Conditions - **Market Demand**: Continued insufficient demand into 2025, with farmers hesitant to purchase due to low grain prices [12] - **Competition**: Small enterprises using older machinery impacting mainstream market [12] - **Product Acceptance**: New products may face initial resistance from users, requiring strategic pricing and promotions [22][40] Investment and Capital Expenditure - **2025 Capital Expenditure**: Estimated at CNY 500 million, focusing on high-end products and international market expansion [35][36] - **Long-term Investment Strategy**: Maintaining investment intensity to support technological upgrades and capacity expansion [36] Export and International Trade - **Export Goals for 2025**: Targeting at least 20% growth in exports, with opportunities in South America, Africa, and Central and Eastern Europe [42] - **International Trade Initiatives**: Strengthening overseas market development and increasing trade personnel [41] Conclusion - **Industry Position**: China Yituo is navigating a challenging agricultural machinery market with a focus on innovation, international expansion, and maintaining shareholder value through stable dividends and strategic investments [44][47]

[Table_Tag] [投Table_Summary] 资要点 ◼ 事件：2025 年 3 月 27 日，公司发布 2024 年年度报告。 ◼ 促销导致业绩略低于预期，看好粮价回暖带动行业景气度上行 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·专用设备 一拖股份（601038） 2024 年报点评：业绩略低于市场预期，长期 看好行业大型化、高端化 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 11534 | 11904 | 13176 | 14457 | 15914 | | 同比（%） | (8.20) | 3.21 | 10.68 | 9.72 | 10.08 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 997.02 | 922.02 | 1,022.25 | 1,122.68 | 1,254.70 | | 同比（%） | 46.39 | (7.52) | 10.87 | 9.82 | 11.76 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·专用设备 一拖股份（601038） 2024 年报点评：业绩略低于市场预期，长期 看好行业大型化、高端化 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 11534 | 11904 | 13176 | 14457 | 15914 | | 同比（%） | (8.20) | 3.21 | 10.68 | 9.72 | 10.08 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 997.02 | 922.02 | 1,022.25 | 1,122.68 | 1,254.70 | | 同比（%） | 46.39 | (7.52) | 10.87 | 9.82 | 11.76 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.91 | 1.00 | 1.12 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 15.55 | 16.82 | 15.17 | 13.81 | 12.36 | [Table ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected profit growth for the upcoming years [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 11.9 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.92 billion RMB, a decrease of 7.5% compared to the previous year [1]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.17 billion RMB, a decline of 8.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of -0.18 billion RMB, which represents an increase in losses by 102.9% [1]. - The overall industry demand remains weak, with a notable increase in inventory destocking urgency [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - The company's comprehensive gross margin in the equipment manufacturing sector was 14.78%, down by 0.36 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased promotional efforts to enhance market share [2]. - The production of large tractors in China decreased by 12.7% year-on-year in Q4 2024, while medium-sized tractors saw a significant increase of 23.4% [2]. Market Position and Policy Impact - The company has increased its market share in large tractors, with sales reaching 34,800 units in 2024, a 12.5% increase year-on-year, and the proportion of large tractors sold rose from 42.8% in 2023 to 46.8% in 2024 [3]. - The new national agricultural machinery purchase subsidy policy has widened the subsidy gap between advanced tractors and ordinary tractors, which is expected to drive product upgrades in the agricultural machinery industry and enhance the profitability of leading companies [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company is 1.03 billion RMB in 2025, 1.16 billion RMB in 2026, and 1.29 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 11.6%, 12.2%, and 11.6% respectively [4]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 16, 14, and 13 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4].

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 11.904 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.26%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 7.52% to 922 million yuan [1] - The company sold 74,300 large and medium-sized tractors in 2024, achieving a year-on-year growth of 2.73%, maintaining its leading position in the industry [1] - The company’s diesel engine sales reached 145,900 units, with exports accounting for 77,600 units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.98% due to a decrease in external market demand [1] Group 2 - The company’s R&D investment for 2024 was 516 million yuan, an increase of 11.93% year-on-year, focusing on high-end agricultural machinery and new platform development [3] - The company is enhancing its overseas market development, with tractor exports increasing by 8.23% to 7,100 units in 2024 [1] - The company is addressing the challenges in the traditional machinery market by increasing R&D investments to promote structural upgrades and differentiate its products [2]

机构名称：信永中和会计师事务所（特殊普通合伙） 成立日期：2012 年 3 月 2 日 组织形式：特殊普通合伙 第一拖拉机股份有限公司关于会计师事务所 第一拖拉机股份有限公司（以下简称公司）聘请信永中和会计 师事务所（特殊普通合伙）（以下简称信永中和）作为公司 2024 年 度年报审计机构。根据《国有企业、上市公司选聘会计师事务所管 理办法》的要求，公司对信永中和 2024 年度审计履职情况进行了评 估。经评估，公司认为，2024 年信永中和资质、独立性等方面均符 合监管要求，履职过程中勤勉尽责、公允表达意见。具体情况如下： 一、会计师事务所基本情况 注册地址：北京市东城区朝阳门北大街 8 号富华大厦 A 座 8 层 首席合伙人：谭小青先生 执业资格：具有财政部颁发的会计师事务所执业资格；具有财 政部、中国证券监督管理委员会备案的从事证券服务业务会计师事 务所资格；具有中国证券监督管理委员会获准从事 H 股企业审计资 格。 人员信息：截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，信永中和有合伙人 259 人，注册会计师 1780 人，其中签署过证券服务业务审计报告的注册 会计师人数超 700 人。 业务信息：信永中 ...

第一拖拉机股份有限公司（以下简称公司）根据《关于规范上市 公司与企业集团财务公司业务往来的通知》《上海证券交易所上市公 司自律监管指引第 5 号——交易与关联交易》等要求，审阅了国机财 务有限责任公司（以下简称国机财务）的《营业执照》与《金融许可 证》等资料及相关财务资料，对国机财务的经营资质、业务和风险状 况进行了评估，具体情况报告如下： 一、国机财务基本情况 关于国机财务有限责任公司的风险持续评估报告 国机财务经原中国银行业监督管理委员会批复，于 2003 年 9 月 成立，属非银行金融机构。2024 年 8 月 29 日取得北京市海淀区市场 监督管理局换发的企业法人营业执照。公司住所：北京市海淀区丹棱 街 3 号 A 座 5 层 519、520、521、522、523、525、8 层，法定代表人： 赵建国，金融许可机构编码：L0010H211000001，统一社会信用代码： 目前营业执照载明的经营范围：对成员单位办理财务和融资顾问、 信用鉴证及相关的咨询、代理业务；协助成员单位实现交易款项的收 付；经批准的保险代理业务；对成员单位提供担保；办理成员单位之 间的委托贷款及委托投资；对成员单位办理票据承兑与 ...

经营 | 国机财务 | | | | | | | | | | | 经营 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 接控制 有限责任 | | 银行 | | 1,864,167,441.13 | 77,368,241,394.93 | | 24,210,293.07 | 77,296,543,063.08 | 1,960,076,066.05 | 性往 | 正常 | | | 的法人 | | 存款 | | | | | | | | | 经营 | | | 公司 | | | | | | | | | | | 来 | | | 及本公 司的联 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 小计 | 营企业 | | | 1,926,745,280.04 | | 78,003,403,526.75 | 24,210,293.07 | 77,931,302,590.53 | 527,432.02 | | 2,023,583,941.35 | | | 上市公司 | 长拖农业 | | 子公司 | | ...