Core Points - Hainan Rubber (601118) closed at 5.95 yuan on November 4, 2025, down 0.17% from the previous trading day, with a total market capitalization of 25.463 billion yuan [1] - The company announced it would provide a joint guarantee of up to 29.2149 million USD (approximately 207.2154 million yuan) for its subsidiary Halcyon Agri Corporation Limited to meet operational funding needs and repay bank loans [1] - The guarantee will be shared between Hainan Rubber and Sinochem International based on their shareholding ratios of 68.10% and 29.20%, respectively [1] - As of the announcement date, Hainan Rubber had already provided a guarantee balance of 1.76975 billion yuan for Halcyon Agri, including this new guarantee [1] - Halcyon Agri's latest asset-liability ratio stands at 76%, exceeding the 70% threshold [1] - For the fiscal year 2025, the company has completed the necessary board and shareholder approvals for the guarantee amount provided to its subsidiary [1] - The total external guarantee balance for the company and its subsidiaries is 4.73844 billion yuan, accounting for 48.12% of the latest audited net assets attributable to shareholders [1] - The guarantee balance for the controlling subsidiary is 1.8372574 billion yuan, representing 18.66% of the total [1] - There are no overdue guarantees reported [1]

Core Viewpoint - Hainan Rubber (601118) announced on the evening of November 4 that it has no overdue guarantees [1] Group 1 - The company confirmed the absence of overdue guarantees, indicating a stable financial position [1]

证券代码：601118 证券简称：海南橡胶 公告编号：2025-068 ●逾期对外担保：无。 ●特别风险提示：合盛农业最近一期的资产负债率超过 70%，敬请投资者注 意相关风险。 一、担保情况概述 （一）担保的基本情况 海南天然橡胶产业集团股份有限公司 关于为控股子公司提供担保的进展公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ●被担保人名称：Halcyon Agri Corporation Limited（以下简称"合盛农业"） 为海南天然橡胶产业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"海南橡胶"或者"公司"） 的控股子公司。 ●本次担保金额及已实际为其提供的担保余额：公司为合盛农业提供不超过 2,921.49 万美元的连带责任保证担保；截至本公告披露日，公司已实际为合盛农 业提供的担保余额为人民币 176,975.74 万元（含本次担保，美元汇率按照 7.0928 计算）。 为满足合盛农业及其下属子公司的营运资金需求、偿还银行贷款，合盛农业 与东亚银行（中国）有限公司上海分行（以下简称"东亚银行上海分行"）签署 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hainan Rubber, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [7] Core Views - The company reported a significant reduction in losses, with a notable decrease in period expenses reaching a 10-year low [2] - The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 33.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.23%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 0.275 billion yuan, but this represented a 40.24% improvement year-on-year [5] - The report highlights the impact of typhoons on production, estimating a total reduction of approximately 0.53 million tons in dry rubber output for 2024 [5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for Hainan Rubber are as follows: 2023A at 37.687 billion yuan, 2024A at 49.673 billion yuan, 2025E at 52.467 billion yuan, 2026E at 63.329 billion yuan, and 2027E at 79.520 billion yuan, with growth rates of 145%, 32%, 6%, 21%, and 26% respectively [2][6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 297 million yuan in 2023A, declining to 103 million yuan in 2024A, then recovering to 213 million yuan in 2025E, 503 million yuan in 2026E, and 1.175 billion yuan in 2027E, with growth rates of 289%, -65%, 106%, 136%, and 134% respectively [2][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.07 yuan in 2023A, 0.02 yuan in 2024A, 0.05 yuan in 2025E, 0.12 yuan in 2026E, and 0.27 yuan in 2027E [2][6] Market Context - The report notes that the natural rubber prices are currently in an upward trend, influenced by slow supply contraction and rising labor costs, while the production capacity optimization in the tire and automotive sectors may limit short-term price increases [5] - The company is expected to benefit from the revaluation of land resources in Hainan and the easing of high-interest pain points due to cross-border capital flows [5]

Group 1 - The horse racing concept sector increased by 0.74%, ranking fifth among concept sectors in terms of growth, with notable stocks such as Luoniushan, Xinhua Du, and Zhongti Industry rising by 1.74%, 1.28%, and 0.75% respectively [1] - The main capital flow in the horse racing concept sector showed a net outflow of 0.78 billion yuan, with two stocks experiencing net inflows, the highest being Zhujiang Piano with a net inflow of 10.04 million yuan [2][3] - In terms of capital inflow ratios, Zhujiang Piano and Zhongmu Co. led with net inflow rates of 9.10% and 2.01% respectively [3] Group 2 - The horse racing concept sector's performance was part of a broader market trend, with various sectors experiencing both gains and losses, such as the Cross-Strait sector rising by 2.09% and PEEK materials declining by 2.89% [2] - The trading activity in the horse racing concept sector included a turnover rate of 12.49% for Luoniushan, indicating a relatively high level of trading interest [3] - The overall market sentiment reflected mixed results, with several sectors facing declines while others, including the horse racing concept, managed to achieve modest gains [2]

Group 1 - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector showed strong performance, with the only agricultural ETF (159275) rising by 1.21% at the close [1][2] - Key stocks in the sector included edible fungi, pig farming, and seeds, with notable gains from companies like Zhongxing Junye and Luoniushan, both hitting the daily limit [1][3] - The recent rebound in pig prices, with an increase of 6.1% from the previous week, has positively impacted the sector [2][3] Group 2 - Short-term pressure on pig sales has eased, with a decrease in the overall output from large enterprises and an increase in secondary fattening [3][4] - The industry is expected to focus on quality improvement and efficiency, with a gradual elimination of outdated production capacity [4][5] - The agricultural ETF (159275) is currently at a relatively low price-to-book ratio of 2.56, indicating a good long-term investment opportunity [3][5] Group 3 - The agricultural ETF tracks the CSI Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index, with a significant concentration in leading companies in the sector, including Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [5][6] - Investors can also access the agricultural ETF through linked funds for broader exposure to the sector [5]

Core Insights - The horse racing concept sector has seen a rise of 3.34%, ranking third among concept sectors in terms of growth [1] - Key stocks within this sector include Luoniushan, which hit the daily limit, and Hainan Rubber, Xinhua Dou, and Zhujiang Piano, which increased by 5.67%, 2.18%, and 0.80% respectively [1] Market Performance - The top-performing concept sectors today include Hainan Free Trade Zone with a growth of 4.81%, Dye with 3.61%, and the horse racing concept with 3.34% [2] - The horse racing concept sector experienced a net inflow of 170 million yuan from main funds, with Luoniushan receiving the highest net inflow of 158 million yuan [2] Fund Flow Analysis - The leading stocks in terms of fund inflow ratios are Luoniushan, Xinhua Dou, and Zhongmu Shares, with net inflow rates of 24.45%, 14.90%, and 5.58% respectively [3] - The fund flow data indicates that Luoniushan had a trading increase of 9.96% with a turnover rate of 7.19%, while Hainan Rubber and Xinhua Dou also showed positive performance [3]

Core Insights - The planting industry sector experienced a rise of 2.02% on November 3, with Zhongxing Junye leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3976.52, up 0.55%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13404.06, up 0.19% [1] Stock Performance - Zhongxing Junye (002772) closed at 14.37, with a significant increase of 10.03%, trading volume of 174,100 shares, and a transaction value of 240 million [1] - Hainan Rubber (601118) saw a rise of 5.67%, closing at 5.96, with a trading volume of 1,073,700 shares and a transaction value of 627 million [1] - Shennong Seed Industry (300189) increased by 4.73%, closing at 5.09, with a trading volume of 2,067,700 shares and a transaction value of 1.044 billion [1] - Other notable performers include Nuofeng (002215) up 4.01%, Xue Rong Biological (300511) up 2.71%, and Hualv Biological (300970) up 2.38% [1] Capital Flow - The planting industry sector saw a net inflow of 93.87 million from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 40.10 million [2] - Main funds showed varying net inflows across different stocks, with Shennong Seed Industry experiencing a net outflow of 53.99 million, while Zhongxing Junye had a net inflow of 39.38 million [3] - Notable net inflows also included Nuofeng with 34.14 million and Hainan Rubber with 28.52 million, while retail investors withdrew from several stocks including Shennong Seed Industry and Hainan Rubber [3]

Core Insights - Hainan Rubber experienced a 5.14% increase in stock price, reaching 5.93 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 372 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.51%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 25.377 billion CNY [1] Company Overview - Hainan Natural Rubber Industry Group Co., Ltd. was established on March 29, 2005, and listed on January 7, 2011. The company is located at 103 Binhai Avenue, Haikou City, Hainan Province. Its main business involves the planting, processing, research, and sales of natural rubber [1] - The revenue composition of the company is as follows: 98.67% from rubber product sales, 0.96% from other sources, and 0.37% from rubber wood sales [1] Shareholder Analysis - Among the top ten circulating shareholders of Hainan Rubber, a fund under Southern Fund holds a significant position. The Southern CSI 500 ETF (510500) reduced its holdings by 542,900 shares in the third quarter, now holding 24.8162 million shares, which accounts for 0.58% of the circulating shares. The estimated floating profit from this transaction is approximately 7.1967 million CNY [2] - The Southern CSI 500 ETF was established on February 6, 2013, with a current scale of 140.098 billion CNY. Year-to-date returns stand at 29.99%, ranking 1797 out of 4216 in its category, while the one-year return is 26.06%, ranking 1890 out of 3894. Since inception, the fund has achieved a return of 146.65% [2] Fund Management - The fund manager of Southern CSI 500 ETF is Luo Wenjie, who has been in the position for 12 years and 199 days. The total asset scale of the fund is 170.445 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 151.55% and the worst being -47.6% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The tire industry in the A-share market has shown overall revenue growth but significant profit differentiation among companies in the first three quarters of 2025, with signs of performance recovery in the third quarter injecting confidence into future industry development [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The tire industry has demonstrated strong revenue resilience despite a complex market environment, with most companies achieving revenue growth [1] - The profit differentiation is influenced by factors such as raw material price fluctuations, international trade issues, and exchange rate changes [1] - In the third quarter, several companies improved their quarterly performance due to product structure optimization, overseas production capacity reaching full output, and declining raw material prices [1] Group 2: Company-Specific Performance - Zhongce Rubber, a leading company listed in May, reported a revenue of 33.683 billion with a year-on-year growth of 14.98% and a net profit of 3.513 billion, up 9.30% [2] - Taike Ying, which went public on October 28, achieved a revenue of 1.939 billion, growing 14.39%, and a net profit of 130 million, increasing by 10.13% [2] - Sailun Tire showed strong revenue growth of 27.587 billion, up 16.76%, but its net profit fell by 11.47% to 2.872 billion [2] - Linglong Tire reported a revenue of 18.161 billion, a 13.87% increase, but its net profit dropped by 31.81% to 1.167 billion due to rising raw material costs [2][3] Group 3: Recovery Trends - The third quarter saw a significant recovery trend, with many companies showing improved performance compared to the first half of the year [4] - Windson achieved explosive growth in the third quarter with a revenue of 2.025 billion, up 17%, and a net profit of 121 million, soaring by 167.67% [4] - Guizhou Tire reported a revenue of 2.763 billion, a 3.54% increase, and a net profit of 201 million, up 50.55%, indicating clear signs of recovery [4] - Qingdao Double Star significantly reduced its losses due to ongoing product structure adjustments and increased sales of high-margin products [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Companies are encouraged to focus on technological innovation, product structure upgrades, and enhancing the proportion of high-margin products [5] - Strengthening cost control and adapting to raw material price fluctuations are essential for improving profitability [5] - Companies with technological advantages, scale, and global layouts are expected to capture more market share and lead high-quality industry development [5]