2026年行情展望：短期合成胶涨价抬估值，长期产能瓶颈显现，易涨难跌 逻辑一：石化链涨价提供估值催化。短期丁二烯产能停车降负，供应偏紧，中期石化链景气有地缘冲突 和反内卷政策支撑，年内合成橡胶价格有望筑底回升，进而提振天然橡胶需求。 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，天然橡胶Q1全球主要产区陆续将进入停割期，而春节后是 国内轮胎关键开工季，因此短期节奏预计由工化属性主导，价格受宏观因素影响大，核心关注春节后的 下游开工表现和石化链景气催化。长期看，天然橡胶价格自2023年5月新开割季以来已经基本确认长期 拐点，同时下游正处AI技术革命爆发前夕，新周期蓄势待发。2026年短期合成胶涨价抬估值，长期产 能瓶颈显现，易涨难跌。该行核心推荐海南橡胶(601118.SH)。 国信证券主要观点如下： 天然橡胶：兼具农工化三重属性，短期节奏预计由工化属性主导 天然橡胶产量长期调节滞后，短期易受天气扰动，下游消费七成来自轮胎，景气和汽车工业高度绑定。 另外合成橡胶部分替代天然橡胶，石化链景气也会影响天然橡胶估值。综合来看，三重属性决定了天然 橡胶框架和行情的复杂性，长短期驱动因素、跟踪指标均有差异。 (1)一年维度来看 ...

Group 1 - The planting industry sector increased by 1.23% on January 26, with Nongfa Seed Industry leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4132.61, down 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14316.64, down 0.85% [1] - Key stocks in the planting industry and their performance included Nongfa Seed Industry (up 3.98% to 7.05), Yasheng Group (up 3.55% to 3.79), and Honglian Huanxu (up 3.40% to 9.72) [1] Group 2 - The planting industry sector saw a net inflow of 499.19 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 2272.04 million yuan [2] - Major stocks with significant fund flows included Yasheng Group with a net inflow of 429.85 million yuan from main funds and a net outflow of 106.49 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - North China Agricultural University also experienced a net inflow of 425.21 million yuan from main funds, with a net outflow of 179.78 million yuan from speculative funds [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Hainan Rubber's trading volume reached 1.467 billion yuan, marking a new high since February 26, 2021 [2] - The latest stock price of Hainan Rubber increased by 1.33%, with a turnover rate of 5.00% [2] - The previous trading day's total transaction volume for the stock was 787 million yuan [2] Group 2 - Hainan Natural Rubber Industry Group Co., Ltd. was established on March 29, 2005, with a registered capital of 4.279 billion yuan [2]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月25日 天然橡胶专题二 优于大市 （1）一年维度来看，Q1 全球主要产区陆续将进入停割期，而春节后是国内 轮胎关键开工季，因此短期节奏预计由工化属性主导，价格受宏观因素影响 大，核心关注春节后的下游开工表现和石化链景气催化。 （2）长期维度来看，天然橡胶价格每轮周期 20 年左右，主要受胶树 10 年 龄左右进入旺产期决定。从具体走势来看，天然橡胶是强顺周期品种，产能 限制作为慢变量更多决定中枢和牛市持续时间，而行情的爆发力需要与大时 代背景下的宏观叙事结合，大周期往往发生于全球或主要经济体的景气上行 阶段。当前全球供应受前期缩种和当下树龄老化影响，天花板已经开始显现， 天然橡胶价格自 2023 年 5 月新开割季以来已经基本确认长期拐点，同时下 游正处 AI 技术革命爆发前夕，新周期蓄势待发。 石化链涨价带动，产能瓶颈明确，2026 年价格预计易涨难跌 天然橡胶：兼具农工化三重属性，短期节奏预计由工化属性主导。天然橡胶 产量长期调节滞后，短期易受天气扰动，下游消费七成来自轮胎，景气和汽 车工业高度绑定。另外合成橡胶部分替代天然橡胶，石化链景气也会影响天 然橡胶估值。综合来看 ...

Group 1 - Hainan Rubber (601118) experienced a trading halt today with a daily turnover rate of 2.73% and a transaction amount of 787 million yuan, showing a price fluctuation of 6.60% [2] - Institutional investors net bought 17.55 million yuan, while the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect saw a net purchase of 44.81 million yuan, with a total net selling by brokerage seats amounting to 17.99 million yuan [2] - The stock was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange due to a daily price deviation of 9.74%, with significant net purchases from institutional and foreign investors [2][3] Group 2 - The latest margin financing and securities lending data shows a total balance of 934 million yuan, with a financing balance of 932 million yuan and a securities lending balance of 1.32 million yuan [3] - Over the past five days, the financing balance decreased by 27.72 million yuan, representing a decline of 2.89%, while the securities lending balance dropped by 24.41 thousand yuan, a decrease of 15.62% [3] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total operating revenue of 33.96 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.23%, but recorded a net loss of 2.75 million yuan [3]

证券之星消息，1月23日种植业板块较上一交易日上涨1.37%，海南橡胶领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4136.16，上涨0.33%。深证成指报收于14439.66，上涨0.79%。种植业板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603336 | 宏辉美疏 | 9.40 | -2.08% | 16.48万 | 1.56亿 | | 002772 | 众兴菌业 | 15.65 | -2.00% | 14.98万 | 2.34亿 | | 600598 | 北大荒 | 15.52 | -1.52% | 29.08万 | 4.53亿 | | 920403 | 康农种业 | 25.33 | -1.36% | - 3.51万 | 8862.77万 | | 002041 | 登海神』 | 9.89 | -0.50% | 11.86万 | 1.17亿 | | 600354 | 敦煌种业 | 6.82 | -0.44% | 23.03万 | 1.57亿 | | 920087 | 秋乐种业 | ...

证券之星消息，1月22日种植业板块较上一交易日上涨1.67%，宏辉果蔬领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4122.58，上涨0.14%。深证成指报收于14327.05，上涨0.5%。种植业板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603336 | 宏辉果蔬 | 9.60 | 5.61% | 28.88万 | | 2.75亿 | | 002772 | 众兴菌业 | 15.97 | 5.27% | 16.70万 | | 2.62亿 | | 920403 | 康农种业 | 25.68 | 3.42% | 4.24万 | | 1.08亿 | | 300189 | 神农种业 | 6.78 | 3.20% | 117.08万 | | 7.85亿 | | 300087 | 茎银高科 | 9.59 | 2.13% | 21.64万 | | 2.06亿 | | 600598 | 北大荒 | 15.76 | 1.87% | 28.03万 | | 4.39亿 | | 601118 ...

Group 1 - The planting industry sector increased by 0.05% on January 21, with Honghui Fruits and Vegetables leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4116.94, up 0.08%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14255.12, up 0.7% [1] - Key stocks in the planting industry and their performance included Honghui Fruits and Vegetables (up 5.33%), Hainan Rubber (up 2.02%), and Yasheng Group (up 2.01%) [1] Group 2 - The planting industry sector experienced a net outflow of 79.6 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds saw a net inflow of 2.24 million yuan [2] - Major stocks with significant fund flows included Yasheng Group with a net outflow of 54.55 million yuan from main funds and Honghui Fruits and Vegetables with a net inflow of 27.76 million yuan [3] - The overall trading volume and turnover for the planting industry stocks indicated active market participation, with notable transactions in Hainan Rubber and Yasheng Group [2][3]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The company, Hainan Natural Rubber Industry Group Co., Ltd., has provided guarantees for its subsidiary, Halcyon Agri Corporation Limited, totaling up to RMB 993.76 million, with an existing guarantee balance of RMB 2.52498 billion as of the announcement date [1]. Group 1: Guarantee Overview - The company has provided a joint liability guarantee for a loan of RMB 1.15 billion from the Export-Import Bank of China, with a guarantee amount of RMB 783.15 million [1][2]. - The company has also issued a guarantee for a USD 40 million loan from Rabobank Singapore, with the guarantee amount being the lower of 68.10% of the total amount or USD 2.9964 million [2]. Group 2: Internal Decision-Making Process - The company’s board of directors approved the guarantee for Halcyon Agri during meetings held on April 24, 2025, and May 20, 2025, within the limits set at the 2024 annual shareholders' meeting [3]. Group 3: Halcyon Agri Corporation Limited Overview - Halcyon Agri was established on April 7, 2005, with a registered capital of SGD 953 million [4][5]. - The company operates in the natural rubber sector, including planting, processing, and sales [6]. - As of December 31, 2024, Halcyon Agri reported total assets of USD 2.093164 billion and a debt ratio of 75.6% [6]. Group 4: Guarantee Agreement Details - The guarantee for the Export-Import Bank includes coverage for principal, interest, penalties, and other costs, with a guarantee period of three years from the loan's maturity [8]. - The guarantee for Rabobank also follows a similar structure, with a three-year term post-agreement expiration [8]. Group 5: Cumulative Guarantee Amount - As of the announcement date, the total external guarantee balance provided by the company and its subsidiaries is RMB 4.8207794 billion, accounting for 48.96% of the latest audited net assets [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Hainan Natural Rubber Industry Group Co., Ltd., has provided a guarantee for its subsidiary, Halcyon Agri Corporation Limited, amounting to a maximum of RMB 993.76 million, with an existing guarantee balance of RMB 2.52498 billion as of the announcement date [1][8]. Summary by Sections Guarantee Overview - The company has provided a joint liability guarantee for a loan of RMB 1.15 billion from the Export-Import Bank of China, with a guarantee amount of RMB 783.15 million [2]. - A loan of USD 40 million has been secured from Rabobank Singapore, with the company providing a guarantee of either 68.10% of the total amount or USD 2.9964 million, whichever is lower [2]. Internal Decision-Making Process - The company approved the guarantee for Halcyon Agri during board meetings on April 24, 2025, and May 20, 2025, within the limits set by the 2024 annual shareholders' meeting [3]. Subsidiary Information - Halcyon Agri Corporation Limited was established on April 7, 2005, with a registered capital of SGD 953 million, focusing on the cultivation, processing, and sale of natural rubber [4][5]. Financial Data of Halcyon Agri - As of December 31, 2024, Halcyon Agri reported total assets of USD 2.09316 billion and total liabilities of USD 1.58302 billion, resulting in a debt-to-asset ratio of 75.6% [5]. - For the first nine months of 2025, the company reported total revenue of USD 249.16 million, with a net loss of USD 5.5952 million [5]. Guarantee Agreement Details - The guarantee for the Export-Import Bank includes coverage for principal, interest, penalties, and other costs, with a guarantee period of three years from the loan's maturity [7]. - The guarantee for Rabobank also follows a similar structure, with a three-year guarantee period post-agreement expiration [7]. Total Guarantee Amount - As of the announcement date, the total external guarantee balance of the company and its subsidiaries is RMB 4.82078 billion, representing 48.96% of the latest audited net assets [8].