渤海证券指出，供给端，受自由港印尼Grasberg矿和刚果（金）卡莫阿-卡库拉铜矿的事故影响，全球2026年铜矿供应预期 进一步收紧，将为铜价提供底部支撑，国内铜冶炼加工端的"反内卷"预期有望进一步改善行业竞争格局；需求端，铜是电 力电网、新能源汽车、AI服务器等领域重要原材料，在全球主要经济体进入降息周期背景下需求有望得到提振。 分析指出，锡价上涨主要由于矿端供应紧张和宏观经济预期影响。供应端上，缅甸锡矿复产进度缓慢，出口量维持低位。 此外，新兴领域需求增长亦为锡价提供强劲支撑。从需求端来看，当前锡的下游需求主要由新兴领域拉动，半导体与消费 电子是锡焊料的传统基本盘，今年以来全球半导体行业景气度上升，直接拉动锡焊料需求。 降息预期提振大宗商品整体价格，二级市场有色金属矿业大涨，12月4日开盘，矿业ETF（159690）跳涨2.49%，锡业股份 涨超8%，洛阳钼业、西部矿业、紫金矿业、江西铜业等跟涨。 商品价格方面，12月3日，沪铜期货主力合约站上9万元/吨大关，创历史新高。锡平均价达到30.97万元/吨，已连续5日处于 30万元上方。 宏观层面，根据CME"美联储观察"最新数据显示，美联储在12月议息会议降 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，12月4日，早盘有色板块震荡走强，铜方向领涨，洛阳钼业、藏格矿业涨超4%，均创历史 新高，盛屯矿业涨超8%，锡业股份、金诚信、西部矿业、江西铜业涨幅靠前。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing significant upward momentum, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, supply disruptions in key metals, and increased demand from the AI and clean energy sectors [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector opened actively, with notable gains: Tin Industry Co. rose over 8%, Jincheng Mining and Western Mining increased over 6%, and several others including Luoyang Molybdenum and Jiangxi Copper rose over 5% [1]. - Specific stock performances include: - Jincheng Mining at 70.19, up 6.95% with a year-to-date increase of 95.34% [2] - Western Mining at 25.76, up 6.89% with a year-to-date increase of 70.64% [2] - Luoyang Jiya at 18.64, up 5.79% with a year-to-date increase of 189.17% [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a significant increase in copper delivery applications, reaching 56,875 tons, the largest increase since 2013 [3]. - LME metal futures closed higher, with copper rising by $342 to $11,488 per ton, marking a historical high, and tin increasing by 4.21% to $40,685 per ton [3]. - The semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors are the primary applications for tin, accounting for over 65% of consumption, which is driving demand due to a recovery in the semiconductor industry [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Morgan Stanley forecasts that supply disruptions and global inventory mismatches will push copper prices to $12,500 per ton by mid-2026 [3]. - The copper market is experiencing "strategic locking" of COMEX inventories, which reduces market liquidity and exacerbates regional shortages, acting as a catalyst for price increases [4]. - The industrial metals sector is facing ongoing supply-demand imbalances, with global copper mine supply disruptions and increased demand from the clean energy transition [4]. Group 4: Precious and Minor Metals - The precious metals sector is benefiting from rising expectations of interest rate cuts, with silver prices reaching historical highs and ongoing supply shortages [5]. - The small metals sector, particularly tin, is gaining attention due to its critical role in the electronics supply chain, with recent price increases reflecting a recovery in demand from semiconductor and AI device sectors [5].

智通财经APP获悉，光大证券发布研报称，矿端紧张传导至电解铜，继续看好铜价新高。CSPT成员企 业达成减产共识说明铜矿的短缺已经传导至电解铜环节，而铜矿供给紧张至少维持到2026年，继续看好 铜价后续新高。 光大证券主要观点如下： 中国铜原料联合谈判小组成员企业达成共识 据SMM，2025年11月28日，鉴于铜精矿加工费及计价条款已严重偏离市场合理水平，为推进全球铜产 业健康高质量发展、同时落实好国家"反内卷"相关要求，中国铜原料联合谈判小组（CSPT）成员企业 达成以下共识并严格遵守：（1）2026年降低矿铜产能负荷10%以上；（2）维护Benchmark体系，加强 与矿山直接合作，抵制贸易商不合理计价模式；（3）强化成员参与现货投标、采购的监督；（4）建立 黑名单制度，抵制扰乱市场的供应商和检测机构。 产能：CSPT小组覆盖产能约占中国电解铜产能的70% 据百川盈孚，2025年10月中国电解铜合计产能约1422万吨，CSPT小组目前成员企业合计16家，合计覆 盖电解铜产能超过1000万吨/年，占比约70%。 TC/RC是矿企支付给冶炼企业将铜矿生产成电解铜的粗炼/精炼费，铜精矿紧张叠加中国冶炼产能迅速 扩 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The consensus among CSPT member companies to reduce copper production capacity by over 10% in 2026 indicates a significant tightening in copper supply, which is expected to drive copper prices to new highs [4][1]. - The disruptions in copper mining in 2025, including production guidance reductions from major mines, are likely to exacerbate the supply constraints [2]. - The current low processing fees (TC) for copper smelting, coupled with reliance on by-product revenues, poses profitability challenges for smelting companies [3]. Summary by Sections Production Capacity - CSPT members account for approximately 70% of China's electrolytic copper production capacity, with a total capacity of over 10 million tons per year [1]. Mining Disruptions - Significant production guidance reductions from various mines in 2025, totaling a decrease of 42,000 tons and 35,000 tons for 2025 and 2026 respectively, represent about 1.8% and 1.5% of global copper mine production [2][19]. Profitability - The processing fee (TC) for copper smelting has reached historical lows, with spot prices at -43 USD/ton and long-term contracts dropping to 0 USD/ton, forcing smelting companies to depend on by-product revenues for profitability [3][11]. Inventory Levels - Global copper inventories are at a six-year high, with LME copper at 159,000 tons and COMEX at 419,000 tons, but the distribution is uneven, leading to potential tightness outside the U.S. [3][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Western Mining, and Jincheng Mining, while also suggesting to monitor Tongling Nonferrous, Jiangxi Copper, and Yunnan Copper [4].

Group 1 - The lithium carbonate market has rebounded strongly, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rising to 90,600-96,000 yuan/ton and industrial-grade prices reaching 89,200-92,500 yuan/ton as of November 27, compared to a low of below 60,000 yuan/ton earlier this year [1] - Several lithium resource companies have become more active on investor interaction platforms, responding to inquiries about their lithium carbonate production capacity [1] - Western Mining Co. reported a production capacity of 20,000 tons/year for battery-grade lithium carbonate and emphasized stable production and quality assurance [1][2] Group 2 - Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co. assured investors that winter production would not be affected due to the high salinity of the salt lake, and ongoing improvements in production processes have mitigated the impact of low temperatures [1][2] - Sichuan New Energy Power Co. disclosed a lithium salt production capacity of 45,000 tons/year, while Suzhou Tianhua New Energy Technology Co. mentioned a capacity of 60,000 tons/year for battery-grade lithium hydroxide, with flexible production lines that can convert to lithium carbonate production [2] - Cangge Mining Co. reported an annual production capacity of 10,000 tons of lithium carbonate from the Chaqi Salt Lake [2] Group 3 - Leading research institutions are optimistic about the lithium market, with Citic Securities predicting a potential price increase to 120,000 yuan/ton due to strong demand from energy storage batteries [3] - Changjiang Securities anticipates 2026 to be a turning point for lithium carbonate, driven by steady domestic demand and uncertainties in overseas resource development [3]

证券日报网讯西部矿业11月25日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至11月20日，公司股东总户数为 11.90万户。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Core Insights - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index has shown a slight increase of 0.15% as of November 25, 2025, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Fujian Expressway, which rose by 9.97% [1] - The National Enterprise Dividend ETF (159515) has also increased by 0.26%, indicating a positive trend in dividend-focused investments [1] - Market sentiment is under pressure due to a lack of performance policies and fluctuating expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, leading to a focus on dividend assets [1] Market Performance - The National Enterprise Dividend ETF recorded a turnover rate of 0.06% with a transaction volume of 27,200 yuan, and an average daily transaction volume of 3.54 million yuan over the past week [1] - The overall industry prosperity index continued to decline in October, but at a slower rate, with essential consumption, midstream manufacturing, and large financial sectors showing the most improvement [1] Investment Strategy - The dividend strategy is highlighted as a foundational investment approach, focusing on high dividend yields and stable cash flows from quality enterprises, which can provide continuous cash flow and long-term compounding potential [1] - A balanced investment approach is recommended, incorporating growth, cyclical, and dividend assets to identify opportunities with improving industry conditions and relatively low valuations [1] Index Composition - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index comprises 100 listed companies selected for their high and stable cash dividend yields, reflecting the overall performance of high-dividend securities among state-owned enterprises [2] - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 17.08% of the total index weight, including companies like COSCO Shipping Holdings and Agricultural Bank of China [2]

Investment Strategy Overview - The report maintains a standard rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, highlighting the positive outlook for copper and aluminum, while emphasizing the potential for rare metals and lithium to rise due to supply-demand dynamics and technological advancements [1][3]. Copper Industry - The copper supply-demand landscape is influenced by ongoing global supply disruptions and a favorable macroeconomic environment, with expectations for price increases supported by a global interest rate cut cycle [3][21]. - Domestic copper production is projected to slow down due to tightening copper concentrate supplies and low smelting fees, while demand from the renewable energy sector and AI electronics is expected to continue rising [3][50]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's refined copper production reached 889.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.14%, driven by significant contributions from recycled copper and improved smelting technology [3][28]. Aluminum Industry - The aluminum market is characterized by rigid supply constraints and differentiated demand, with prices expected to rise due to strong demand from the renewable energy sector and gradual recovery in the real estate market [3][55]. - Domestic aluminum production is supported by stable bauxite supply and increasing imports, with a notable rise in imported bauxite by 33.6% year-on-year [3][59]. - The report indicates that the aluminum price is likely to maintain an upward trajectory due to the ongoing economic recovery and the anticipated demand from various sectors [3][55]. Strategic Metals - The rare earth supply is expected to stabilize, but demand needs to be boosted, particularly from sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy [3][4]. - Tungsten supply is projected to remain tight due to resource depletion and environmental regulations, while demand is stable, driven by applications in hard alloys and emerging technologies [3][4]. - Lithium production is set to benefit from the rapid expansion of energy storage and solid-state battery technologies, with a significant increase in demand anticipated [3][4]. Precious Metals - Gold is expected to maintain its upward momentum due to declining dollar credit and ongoing central bank purchases, despite short-term volatility [3][5]. - The report highlights that gold's monetary attributes are likely to be reinforced amid geopolitical tensions and a global trend towards de-dollarization [3][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Tianshan Aluminum (002532), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), and Western Mining (601168) for industrial metals, while recommending Xiamen Tungsten (600549) and Xingye Silver Tin (000426) for small metals and new materials [6]. - For energy metals, Ganfeng Lithium (002460) and Tianqi Lithium (002466) are highlighted as key players to watch [6]. - In the precious metals sector, Zijin Mining (601899) and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988) are recommended due to their potential for price appreciation [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [3] Core Views - The report highlights ongoing speculation regarding interest rate cuts, with a focus on gold and copper markets. The expectation for a December rate cut remains uncertain, influenced by mixed employment data and the lack of CPI data due to government shutdowns. Despite fluctuations in market expectations, historical trends suggest that even if a rate cut does not occur, it will not alter the long-term direction for gold [10][11] - The impact of Russia's gold sales is deemed limited, as the country has significantly reduced its gold purchases in 2023 and is primarily selling gold domestically due to sanctions on international transactions. This is expected to have minimal effect on the global market [10] - Copper prices show resilience, remaining stable within the range of $10,600 to $11,000 per ton, supported by strong supply and demand fundamentals. Recent production guidance from Freeport has been adjusted downward, indicating a tighter supply outlook for 2026 [11] Summary by Sections Gold Market - The ongoing debate over interest rate cuts is affecting gold prices, with December cut probabilities fluctuating between 30% and 70%. The report suggests that the direction for gold remains positive regardless of short-term rate cut outcomes [10] - Russia's gold reserves are over 2,300 tons, but their recent sales are not expected to significantly impact international gold prices due to domestic selling constraints [10] Copper Market - Copper prices have shown strong resilience, not following broader market declines. The report notes a recent increase in the operating rate of copper rod production, indicating robust demand [11] - Freeport's production guidance for copper has been revised downwards, suggesting a tighter supply situation moving forward [11] - The report anticipates further upward adjustments in earnings expectations for copper mining stocks due to ongoing fiscal expansion and liquidity conditions [11] Market Performance - The report indicates that the non-ferrous metals index has underperformed the broader market, with a decline of 6.75% recently. Specific sectors such as lithium and gold have shown varying performance, with lithium stocks performing relatively better [12]