9月4日，长白山涨5.05%，截至发稿，报54.10元/股，成交8.33亿元，换手率5.99%，总市值144.27亿 元。长白山股价已经连续5天上涨，区间累计涨幅20.33%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 资料显示，长白山旅游股份有限公司位于吉林省长白山保护开发区池北区(白林西区和平街)，成立日期 2010年12月8日，上市日期2014年8月22日，公司主营业务涉及旅游服务业,包括旅游客运、旅行社及温 泉水开发、利用业务。主营业务收入构成为：旅游客运72.31%，酒店18.79%，其他4.52%，旅行社 4.01%，其他(补充)0.36%。 数据显示，广发基金旗下1只基金重仓长白山。广发鑫享混合A（002132）二季度持有股数131.01万股， 占基金净值比例为2.67%，位居第九大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约340.62万元。连续5天上涨期 间浮盈赚取1139.77万元。 从长白山十大流通股东角度 数据显示，广发基金旗下1只基金位居长白山十大流通股东。广发鑫享混合A（002132）二季度新进十 大流通股东，持有股数131.01万股，占流通股的比例为0.49%。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约340.62万 元。连续5 ...

一、事件：国庆长假 2025国庆中秋假期讲连休共计8天。 黄山9月1日起购买"黄山旅游一卡通（全国版）"自动赠送200元文旅消费券礼包，发放至"黄山旅游官方平台"小程序； 杭州西湖区："2025杭州西湖文旅消费券"，9月4日10:00-9月6日23:59为新一期，全国用户可参与，后续轮次持续至12月 30日。 出境游强劲复苏 据去哪儿平台数据显示，今年暑期，热门城市的国际机票预订量已回升至疫情前的五成以上。同时，文旅部公布的恢复 出境团队游第三批名单中，日本和韩国成为了暑期热门目的地，其预订量相比年初激增近10倍，且机票价格较之前下降 了大约四成。 此外，飞猪数据显示，7月平台上的签证办理量同比激增13倍以上。其中，日本等目的地的签证办理量已超越2019年同 期，而韩国、印度、芬兰、卢森堡、瑞典等地的本地玩乐服务日均履约量也已全面恢复至疫情前水平。 据文旅部数据显示，2025年上半年，国内居民出游人次32.85亿，同比增长20.6%；国内居民出游花费3.15万亿元，同比 增长15.2%。据中国旅游研究院预测，2025年暑期国内旅游人次有望突破25亿人次，总消费规模预计达1.8万亿元。 多地将在9月发放文旅消费 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Changbai Mountain's stock has experienced a significant increase, with a 5.34% rise on September 3, reaching a price of 51.12 yuan per share, and a total market capitalization of 13.632 billion yuan [1] - Changbai Mountain Tourism Co., Ltd. is primarily engaged in the tourism service industry, with its main revenue sources being tourism transportation (72.31%), hotels (18.79%), and travel agencies (4.01%) [1] - The stock has shown a cumulative increase of 13.39% over the past four days, indicating strong market performance [1] Group 2 - Huatai-PB ZhiYuan Mixed A Fund holds 160,000 shares of Changbai Mountain, accounting for 4.3% of the fund's net value, making it the sixth-largest holding [2] - The fund has generated a floating profit of approximately 414,400 yuan today and a total of 916,800 yuan during the four-day increase [2] - The fund has achieved a year-to-date return of 40.07% and a one-year return of 63.79%, ranking 1193 out of 8180 and 1517 out of 7967 respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The rise of "borderline" marketing strategies, particularly through male models and entertainment, is becoming a common approach in offline consumption sectors as businesses seek to boost traffic and sales during a challenging economic period [2][12][20]. Group 1: Offline Marketing Trends - The offline consumption market is expected to embrace a "male marketing" trend by 2025, with various sectors like theme parks and restaurants adopting this strategy to cope with declining sales [3][12]. - The introduction of "handsome NPCs" in theme parks has proven effective, with some locations reporting significant increases in visitor numbers, particularly among young women [4][5]. - The Fuzhou Dongbai Center's "male model bag-carrying" experience led to a notable increase in daily foot traffic and sales, showcasing the effectiveness of this marketing approach [7][8]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Challenges - Despite the initial success of "borderline" marketing, many offline businesses continue to struggle financially, with a significant portion of theme parks and restaurants reporting losses [13][17]. - For instance, the theme park industry has seen about 22% of its establishments operating at a loss, while major restaurant chains like Xiaobuxiang have reported substantial net losses [13][17]. - The financial reports from major players indicate a concerning trend, with companies like Huazhou City experiencing a decline in revenue and profit margins [17][18]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The consumer market is shifting towards a preference for deeper cultural experiences rather than superficial entertainment, as evidenced by the growing popularity of family-oriented travel and cultural tourism [20][21][22]. - Data shows that the emotional consumption market in China is projected to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2025, indicating a strong demand for enriching experiences [19]. - The trend towards "de-entertainment" suggests that businesses need to integrate cultural elements into their offerings to remain competitive and relevant in the evolving market landscape [23][24].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a revenue of 235 million yuan, down 7.44% year-on-year, and a net profit of -2 million yuan [8] - The increase in costs has put pressure on profitability, with a gross margin of 19.04% in the first half of 2025, down 10.39 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The company is expected to benefit from improved external transportation and internal expansion of the scenic area, with projected revenues of 788 million yuan, 906 million yuan, and 1,024 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 620 million yuan, with a growth rate of 218.7%, and a net profit of 138 million yuan [7] - The company anticipates a revenue increase to 743 million yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 144 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 4.5% [7] - For 2025, the expected earnings per share (EPS) is 0.57 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 78.8 [7] Market Performance - The company has experienced a market performance of -7% over the last 12 months, compared to a 23% increase in the CSI 300 index [4]

Market Overview - On September 1, the tourism and scenic spots sector rose by 2.27% compared to the previous trading day, with Changbai Mountain leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3875.53, up 0.46%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12828.95, up 1.05% [1] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances in the tourism sector included: - Changzi Mountain (code: 660209) closed at 47.79, up 6.44% with a trading volume of 174,300 shares and a transaction value of 818 million yuan [1] - Tianfu Culture and Tourism (code: 000558) closed at 6.69, up 6.19% with a trading volume of 2,259,800 shares and a transaction value of 147.5 million yuan [1] - Xiangyuan Culture and Tourism (code: 600576) closed at 8.32, up 3.74% with a trading volume of 505,500 shares and a transaction value of 418 million yuan [1] Capital Flow - The tourism and scenic spots sector experienced a net outflow of 27.003 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 68.5212 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for specific stocks showed: - Tianfu Culture and Tourism had a net inflow of 61.3565 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 76.9291 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Emei Mountain A (code: 000888) had a net inflow of 37.4556 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 16.1035 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Summary of Changbai Mountain Company Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses Changbai Mountain Company, which operates a scenic area in China, focusing on tourism and hospitality services. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Financial Performance**: In the first half of 2025, the company's net profit and net profit excluding non-recurring items decreased by 23.08 million yuan and 29.31 million yuan respectively, primarily due to extreme weather conditions and an earlier Spring Festival affecting peak visitor flow [2][3] 2. **Impact of Weather**: Extreme weather, including heavy snow, led to a significant increase in the number of days the scenic area was closed, with the North Scenic Area closed 188% more days compared to the previous year [3] 3. **Visitor Growth**: In July 2025, visitor numbers increased by 38% year-on-year, reaching a record high of 210,200 visitors, attributed to adjustments in daily visitor capacity and infrastructure improvements [2][6] 4. **High-Speed Rail Development**: The expected opening of the Shenbai High-Speed Rail by the end of September 2025 is anticipated to significantly reduce travel time from Beijing and Shenyang, potentially boosting visitor numbers and supporting the goal of 4 million visitors for the year [7][8] 5. **Cost Increases**: Human resource costs rose due to a company-wide salary adjustment and an increase in social security contributions based on the previous year's average wage [5] 6. **Winter Season Plans**: The company plans to enhance winter offerings, including new operational points and activities such as snowmobiles and hot springs, to attract more visitors during the winter season [10][12] 7. **Government Support**: Local government support for the tourism industry has increased, with investments and planning aimed at promoting ice and snow tourism as a key economic driver [13] 8. **Future Growth Drivers**: The company identifies key growth drivers as overall visitor growth, transportation improvements, and hotel business expansion, with a focus on balancing summer and winter peak seasons [14] 9. **New Business Development**: The company is exploring new business opportunities in addition to traditional transportation and hotel services, although no major new revenue streams have been identified yet [15][16] Additional Important Information - **Visitor Demographics**: The proportion of group tourists increased slightly during the summer of 2025, with one-day tour products gaining popularity [9] - **Infrastructure Improvements**: Ongoing enhancements to infrastructure and service quality are aimed at improving visitor experience and operational efficiency [12][17]

Core Insights - The tourism and scenic area industry has shown a mixed performance in the first half of 2025, with 23 listed companies reporting a total revenue of 17.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, but a net profit of 1.167 billion yuan, down 4.25% [2][3] - The divergence in performance among companies is attributed to differences in tourism resources, location conditions, operational models, and capital operation capabilities, reflecting a deepening marketization process in the tourism industry [2][3] Revenue Performance - Among the listed companies, China Youth Travel Service (中青旅) led with a revenue of 4.866 billion yuan, while Tibet Tourism (西藏旅游) reported less than 100 million yuan [3][4] - Ten companies achieved positive revenue growth, with Tianfu Culture and Tourism (天府文旅) leading at an 86.75% increase, followed by Xiangyuan Culture and Tourism (祥源文旅) at 35.41% and Jiuhua Tourism (九华旅游) at 22.26% [3][4] Profitability Analysis - Seven companies, including Changbai Mountain (长白山) and Dalian Shengya (大连圣亚), reported losses, with Changbai Mountain transitioning from profit to loss due to extreme weather and rising costs [4][8] - Companies like Guilin Tourism (桂林旅游) and Tibet Tourism achieved profitability through non-recurring gains, with Guilin reporting a net profit of 8 million yuan, a 141.94% increase [4][5] Challenges Faced - Extreme weather and cost pressures were significant factors leading to losses for several companies, with Changbai Mountain and Dalian Shengya both citing decreased visitor numbers and increased operational costs [8][9] - Yunnan Tourism experienced a substantial revenue decline of 61.22%, primarily due to project delays and losses from its subsidiaries [10] Notable Performers - Xiangyuan Culture and Tourism was the only company to achieve over 30% growth in both revenue and net profit, with a revenue of 500 million yuan and a net profit of 92 million yuan [11] - ST Zhangjiajie (ST张家界) reported a revenue increase of 11.40% to 194 million yuan, with a significant reduction in net loss by 45.60% [12] Visitor Trends - Visitor numbers showed significant variation, with Jiuhua Mountain receiving approximately 5.65 million visitors, a year-on-year increase of 11.81%, while Emei Mountain and Lijiang saw declines in visitor numbers [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][14] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from increased summer tourist traffic due to IP marketing, with a significant improvement in transportation in Q4, setting the stage for a new growth cycle [1][7] - Despite a challenging H1 2025 with a revenue decline of 7.4% year-on-year to 2.35 billion yuan and a net profit loss, the outlook for the second half of the year is optimistic due to expected increases in tourist flow and cost reductions [5][6] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 1.98 billion yuan, 2.35 billion yuan, and 2.78 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 37.6%, 18.3%, and 18.5% [5][8] Financial Summary - For H1 2025, the company reported revenues of 2.35 billion yuan, down 7.4% year-on-year, with a net loss of 0.02 billion yuan compared to a profit of 0.21 billion yuan in H1 2024 [5] - The company’s revenue for Q2 2025 was 1.07 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.7% year-on-year, with a net loss of 0.06 billion yuan [5] - The company’s total market capitalization is 11.461 billion yuan, with a current stock price of 42.98 yuan [3] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The company expects to achieve revenues of 856 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 15.1%, and net profits of 198 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 37.6% [8][10] - The projected EPS for 2025 is 0.74 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 44, 37.2, and 31.4 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][8] Operational Insights - The company’s transportation business is showing signs of stabilization, with a slight increase in customer spending despite a decline in overall revenue [6] - The company is leveraging IP marketing and events to boost summer visitor numbers, with July seeing a record 810,200 visitors, a 37.8% increase year-on-year [7]

Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of -2.05 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 109.75% [1] - Total operating revenue for the same period was 23.5 million yuan, down 7.44% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin decreased to 19.04%, a drop of 35.3% compared to the previous year [1] - The net profit margin turned negative at -1.13%, reflecting a decline of 113.66% year-on-year [1] - The total of selling, administrative, and financial expenses reached 41.87 million yuan, accounting for 17.78% of revenue, an increase of 24.05% year-on-year [1] Key Financial Ratios - The company's return on invested capital (ROIC) was 12.07% last year, indicating strong capital returns [3] - The historical median ROIC over the past decade is 7.04%, with a notably poor performance in 2022 at -5.25% [3] - The net profit margin for the previous year was 19.41%, suggesting high added value in products or services [3] Shareholder Information - Several funds have newly entered the top ten shareholders of the company, including Guangfa Xinxiang Flexible Allocation Mixed A and Huaxia Domestic Demand Driven Mixed A [4] - The largest fund holding is Guangfa Xinxiang Flexible Allocation Mixed A, with a scale of 1.805 billion yuan and a recent net value increase of 0.46% [4]