| 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002607 | 中公教育 | 9.96 | 5.62 | 25442.62 | | 300416 | 苏试试验 | 3.52 | 8.11 | 10194.03 | | 000796 | 凯撒旅业 | 7.93 | 17.10 | 7486.02 | | 002858 | 力盛体育 | 3.11 | 14.01 | 3946.48 | | 300192 | 科德教育 | 2.29 | 10.23 | 3616.95 | | 000721 | 西安饮食 | 1.48 | 9.14 | 1164.98 | | 601007 | 金陵饭店 | 1.14 | 8.28 | 946.22 | | 000888 | 峨眉山A | 0.31 | 2.63 | 901.86 | | 002186 | 全聚德 | 0.17 | 2.10 | 813.95 | | 600730 | 中国高科 | 6.57 | 7.17 | 659.70 | | 301632 | 广东 ...

冰雪胜地，交通扩容，十年之约，再创辉煌 2025 年 12 月 05 日 增持（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 620.43 | 743.32 | 806.46 | 907.88 | 1,004.60 | | 同比（%） | 218.73 | 19.81 | 8.49 | 12.58 | 10.65 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 138.06 | 144.25 | 157.68 | 191.99 | 225.91 | | 同比（%） | 340.59 | 4.48 | 9.31 | 21.76 | 17.67 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.51 | 0.53 | 0.58 | 0.70 | 0.83 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 96.49 | 92.34 | 84.48 | 69.38 | 58.96 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券 ...

旅客在长白山站站台上候车。 一列复兴号智能动车组列车行驶在沈白高铁长白山区段线路上。 一列复兴号智能动车组列车行驶在沈白高铁长白山区段线路上。 一列复兴号智能动车组列车从长白山西站驶出。 吉林省长白山华美胜地滑雪场雪道现场。 一列和谐号动车组列车行驶在沈白高铁长白山区段线路上。 吉林省长白山华美胜地雪后美景。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Changbai Mountain's stock price has shown fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 19.61% and a recent decline over the past 20 days, indicating potential volatility in the tourism sector [1][2]. Company Overview - Changbai Mountain Tourism Co., Ltd. was established on December 8, 2010, and listed on August 22, 2014. The company operates in the tourism service industry, focusing on passenger transport, travel agency services, and hot spring water development [1]. - The main revenue sources are: passenger transport (66.82%), hotel services (24.09%), other businesses (6.82%), and travel agency services (2.28%) [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Changbai Mountain reported revenue of 636 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.99%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 149 million yuan, up 1.05% [2]. - Since its A-share listing, the company has distributed a total of 144 million yuan in dividends, with 42.53 million yuan distributed over the past three years [2]. Stock Market Activity - As of December 3, the stock price was 50.28 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 13.694 billion yuan. The stock experienced a net outflow of 13.76 million yuan in principal funds on that day [1]. - The stock has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" once this year, with the most recent appearance on November 5, where it recorded a net buy of -69.6151 million yuan [1]. Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased by 25.35% to 45,900, with an average of 5,814 circulating shares per person, a decrease of 20.23% [2][3]. - Notable institutional shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and various ETFs, with some new entrants and exits among the top ten circulating shareholders [3].

Company Overview - Changbai Mountain Tourism Co., Ltd. is located in the Changbai Mountain Protection and Development Zone, Jilin Province, and was established on December 8, 2010. The company was listed on August 22, 2014. Its main business involves tourism services, including passenger transport, travel agency services, and hot spring water development and utilization [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Changbai Mountain achieved operating revenue of 636 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.99%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 149 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.05% [2]. - Since its A-share listing, Changbai Mountain has distributed a total of 144 million yuan in dividends, with 42.53 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Performance - As of December 2, Changbai Mountain's stock price increased by 2.15%, reaching 51.68 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 471 million yuan and a turnover rate of 3.47%. The total market capitalization is 14.075 billion yuan [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has risen by 22.94%, with a 3.09% increase over the last five trading days, a 10.76% decrease over the last 20 days, and an 8.14% increase over the last 60 days [1]. Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Changbai Mountain was 45,900, an increase of 25.35% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per person was 5,814, a decrease of 20.23% [2][3]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited as the fourth largest shareholder, holding 2.7464 million shares, an increase of 1.7474 million shares from the previous period. Other notable shareholders include various ETFs focused on tourism and the broader market [3]. Market Position - Changbai Mountain is classified under the Shenyin Wanguo industry category of social services, specifically in tourism and scenic areas, and is associated with concepts such as ride-hailing, revitalization of Northeast China, and state-owned enterprise reform [2].

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI index for November is at 49.2%, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating a minor recovery within the contraction zone [6][7] - The new orders index for November is also at 49.2%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points, while the new export orders index rose by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, likely driven by the upcoming holiday shopping season [6][7] - The production index stands at 50.0%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.3 percentage points, indicating stability at the threshold level [6][7] Macroeconomic Overview - Manufacturing purchasing and inventory intentions are still in the contraction zone, suggesting a need for further improvement in procurement sentiment [6][7] - Fixed asset investment projects, particularly in infrastructure and affordable housing, are expected to gain momentum towards the end of the year and the beginning of the next [6][7] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3914.01, up by 0.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.25% to 13146.72 [3] - The performance of various industry indices shows that non-ferrous metals and telecommunications sectors led with increases of 2.85% and 2.81%, respectively, while agriculture and forestry sectors saw declines [4] Sector Analysis - The manufacturing sector's price index showed a recovery in November, with the main raw material purchase price index rising by 1.1 percentage points to 53.6%, indicating a high level of activity [7] - The equipment manufacturing and raw materials industries are sensitive to downstream fixed asset investments, with some signs of demand recovery in November [8]

五天"冰雪假期"也带动了吉林游客出省旅行的热情。旅游平台数据显示，"冰雪假期"官宣后，从长春出 发的机票预订量较前一周大幅上涨。假期从长春起飞，机票预订的前十热门目的地包括上海、三亚、广 州、长沙、南京、青岛、杭州、西安、深圳和成都。 此前，新疆乌鲁木齐、阿勒泰相继官宣12月初的雪假，算上前后周末，最长能连休九天。去哪儿旅行数 据显示，雪假带动两地出发的机票预订量环比增长都超过45%，尤其飞往南方温暖城市的航线更受欢 迎。 同程研究院首席研究员程超功对《金融时报》记者表示，与依赖游客发展冰雪产业的模式相比，多地正 在通过中小学生雪假等方式培育本地的冰雪运动文化，营造本地化的冰雪消费氛围，是一种内生型的发 展模式，从而将发展"冰雪经济"与传统冰雪文化的传承很好地结合起来。同时，本地居民的消费动力被 激发起来后，也能够有效调节淡旺季客流的波动。 近日，吉林省发布通知，明确吉林省今年的"冰雪假期"为12月3日—12月7日，不挤占寒暑假。义务教育 阶段学生全部放假。 根据《吉林省2025年"冰雪假期"专项工作方案》（以下简称《方案》），吉林省今年面向义务教育学生 设立"冰雪假期"，不挤占寒暑假时间。"冰雪假期"期间， ...

Core Viewpoint - The opening of the Shenyang-Baihe high-speed railway (Shenbai High-speed Railway) is expected to significantly boost ice and snow tourism in Northeast China, particularly in the Changbai Mountain area, by reducing travel time and offering promotional ticket prices [1] Group 1: Travel Time Reduction - The Shenbai High-speed Railway shortens the travel time from Shenyang to Changbai Mountain to approximately 2 hours, and from Beijing via Shenyang to Changbai Mountain to about 4.5 hours [1] Group 2: Promotional Offers - Starting from November 1, the Shenbai High-speed Railway introduced ticket discounts ranging from 40% to 80% for its trains along the route [1] - Changbai Mountain Station has partnered with the North Scenic Area to offer an 20% discount on snowfield tickets for passengers holding high-speed train tickets [1] Group 3: Tourism Impact - By early November, the Shenbai High-speed Railway had transported over 280,000 passengers with ice and snow themes, contributing to a significant increase in cultural and tourism consumption in the Changbai Mountain region [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights three core trends in the consumer services industry: "New Recovery, New Ecology, and New Supply" [6] - Structural factors are aiding certain sectors in stabilizing and improving operations, indicating a gradual recovery from the bottom [7] - The integration of online platforms with offline operations is reshaping the industry ecosystem, enhancing competition and operational efficiency [8] Industry Overview - The consumer services sector has seen a slight revenue increase of 2.57% year-on-year, totaling 183.23 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, despite a 12.7% decline in net profit [20][22] - The sector's performance has been mixed, with tourism and education sectors showing significant growth, while the hotel and restaurant sectors faced slight declines [16][19] New Recovery - The hotel industry is experiencing a rebound due to increased tourism demand and a stabilization in average daily rates (ADR), with occupancy rates showing signs of improvement [31][57] - The Macau gaming market has shown strong recovery, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) reaching 24.086 billion MOP in October 2025, driven by non-gaming attractions [32][44] - The duty-free market is benefiting from policy optimizations, with sales in Hainan reaching 2.425 billion yuan in October 2025, reflecting a 34.86% year-on-year increase [32][38] New Ecology - Major players like Alibaba, Meituan, and JD.com are competing in the instant retail space, each leveraging their strengths to enhance online and offline integration [42] - The restaurant industry is witnessing a shift towards standardized and professional supply chains, with the chain restaurant rate increasing from 15% in 2020 to 23% in 2024 [46][48] New Supply - The tourism sector is transitioning from a "sightseeing + ticket" model to one focused on content innovation and immersive experiences, with companies like Sanxia Tourism and Haichang Ocean Park leading this change [50][53] - The sports industry is evolving to combine spectator and participatory sports, creating new social engagement opportunities through digital platforms [54] Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include focusing on leading hotel chains like Jinjiang Hotels and ShouLai Hotels, and monitoring companies with strong supply chain advantages in the restaurant sector [6][8] - The report suggests that innovative companies in tourism, sports, and education sectors, particularly those utilizing AI and content innovation, are worth attention for potential growth [8][50]

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is expected to warm up for a bull market in early 2025, with stable funds likely to support the market amid unchanged policy attitudes. The current adjustment is seen as a healthy correction within the bull market, setting the stage for a pre-spring rally at the end of the year and the beginning of the next [4][2] - The AI industry chain is anticipated to be the main line for investment during this period, benefiting from improved liquidity expectations and risk appetite. The Sci-Tech 50 and ChiNext indices are expected to lead the recovery in broad-based indices [4][2] - The AI industry chain remains optimistic, with strong downstream demand and short-term supply challenges in AI infrastructure, presenting investment opportunities in power supply and computing power, particularly in domestic computing power [4][2] December Stock Picks - The December stock picks from Zhongyin Securities include: - Poly Real Estate Group (Real Estate) - Jitu Express-W (Transportation) - China Merchants Energy (Transportation) - Wanhua Chemical (Chemicals) - Anji Technology (Chemicals) - Huayou Cobalt (New Energy) - Anjii Food (Food and Beverage) - Changbai Mountain (Social Services) - Feiliwa (Electronics) [6][8] Real Estate Industry: Poly Real Estate Group - The company experienced a 48.1% year-on-year revenue growth in the first half of 2025, driven by increased project completions. However, net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 44.3% due to investment losses and increased minority shareholder losses [8][9] - The company’s gross margin improved to 17.5%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, while net profit margin decreased to 1.3% [8][9] - The company’s debt structure has improved, with total interest-bearing debt decreasing by 8.6% year-on-year, and all "three red lines" indicators turning green, indicating a healthier financial position [9][10] Transportation Industry: Jitu Express-W - The company achieved a total revenue of $5.499 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, with significant growth in the Southeast Asian market [13][14] - The company’s market share in Southeast Asia increased to 32.8%, while the Chinese market saw a 20% increase in package volume [14][15] - The company is focusing on cost optimization and has implemented a flexible pricing mechanism to enhance competitiveness [15] Transportation Industry: China Merchants Energy - The company reported a slight decrease in revenue to 25.799 billion yuan in 2024, but net profit increased by 5.59% to 5.107 billion yuan, indicating resilient profitability [16][17] - The fourth quarter saw a significant increase in shipping volume, particularly in high-value routes, contributing to a strong performance [16][17] Chemical Industry: Wanhua Chemical - The company’s revenue from polyurethane, petrochemical, and fine chemicals in the first half of 2025 was 36.888 billion yuan, 34.934 billion yuan, and 15.628 billion yuan, respectively, with the petrochemical segment facing short-term pressure [19][20] - The company’s management reforms have led to improved cost control and resource allocation efficiency, which is expected to enhance future performance [19][20] Chemical Industry: Anji Technology - The company reported continuous high growth in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters of 2025, with a gross margin of 56.61% [23][24] - The company’s polishing liquid sales increased by 38.23% year-on-year, indicating strong demand in the semiconductor market [24][25] New Energy Industry: Huayou Cobalt - The company achieved a net profit of 4.216 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 39.59%, with a revenue growth of 29.57% [26][27] - The company is advancing its integrated layout with ongoing project developments in nickel and lithium production [26][27] Food and Beverage Industry: Anjii Food - The company reported a revenue increase of 6.6% year-on-year in Q3 2025, driven by product innovation and channel expansion [28][29] - The company is focusing on product structure optimization and cost control, maintaining stable profitability despite rising raw material costs [29][30] Social Services Industry: Changbai Mountain - The company experienced a 6.99% year-on-year revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant increase in tourist numbers during the peak season [31][32] - External transportation upgrades and internal project developments are expected to enhance future growth prospects [32] Electronics Industry: Feiliwa - The company is investing in expanding its quartz electronic fabric production capacity to meet the growing demand for high-end PCB materials [33][34] - The demand for quartz electronic fabric is expected to increase due to advancements in Ethernet switch chip technology [34][35]