Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, with a target price range of 172.8-198.7 RMB, implying a potential upside of 19%-37% from the current price [2][4] Core Views - The company is a leading player in China's all-terrain vehicle (ATV) and mid-to-large displacement motorcycle markets, with a strong export focus (76% of revenue in 2023) [2] - The company has achieved a leading market share in Europe and a strong position in North America for ATVs, and ranks among the top three in China's mid-to-large displacement motorcycle market [2] - The company is expected to benefit from new product launches, overseas expansion, and premiumization strategies, driving future growth [2] Company Overview - The company has a strong presence in both ATV and motorcycle markets, with ATVs contributing 54% of revenue (6.5 billion RMB in 2023) and motorcycles contributing 37% (4.5 billion RMB in 2023) [13] - The company has a diversified product portfolio, covering motorcycles from 125cc to 1250cc and ATVs from 110cc to 1000cc, including electric models [13][15] - The company has a long history of technological innovation, starting from engine components in 1989 and expanding into ATVs in 2005 [16] ATV Market Analysis - The global ATV market is projected to reach 15.8 billion USD by 2028, with UTV/SSV segment accounting for 83% (13.1 billion USD) [2][24] - The ATV market is highly concentrated, dominated by North American and Japanese brands, but the company has achieved a global market share of over 15% in 2023 [2][29] - The company has launched multiple new high-end ATV models in 2024, significantly improving performance and narrowing the gap with leading competitors [2][24] Motorcycle Market Analysis - China's mid-to-large displacement motorcycle market has low penetration (less than 5% in 2023), with significant growth potential as consumer acceptance increases [2] - The company has a strong track record of launching hit motorcycle models and has accelerated its new product release cycle in 2024 [2] - The company's electric motorcycle brand, ZEEHO, is building a comprehensive product matrix, potentially creating a third growth curve [2] Overseas Expansion - The global mid-to-large displacement motorcycle market is estimated at 3.81 million units, with significant opportunities in North America, South America, Europe, and Southeast Asia [2] - The company has shifted its motorcycle strategy to focus on both domestic and overseas markets since 2022, leveraging its competitive pricing advantage [2] - The company is strengthening its overseas distribution channels, which could drive rapid growth in motorcycle exports [2] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.31 billion, 1.64 billion, and 2.04 billion RMB in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with EPS of 8.6, 10.8, and 13.5 RMB [2] - Revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 21.5% from 2023 to 2026, reaching 21.76 billion RMB in 2026 [3] - The company's EBIT margin is expected to improve from 8.4% in 2023 to 10.0% in 2026, with ROE increasing from 20.0% to 22.8% over the same period [3] Competitive Advantages - The company has strong R&D capabilities, particularly in water-cooled engine technology, with engine durability exceeding 200 hours [30] - The company has been expanding its global distribution network, with the number of ATV dealers increasing from around 250 in 2017 to 554 in 2022 [33] - The company has established a comprehensive after-sales service system covering all global sales regions [34]

投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点 | --- | --- | |------------------------|------------| | 基本数据 | 2024-09-12 | | 收盘价 ( 元 ) | 147.48 | | 流通股本 ( 亿股 ) | 1.51 | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ) | 35.91 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 1.51 | | 最近 12 月市场表现 | | -42% -29% -15% -2% 12% 26% 春风动力 沪深300 上证指数 摩托车及其他 分析师 佘炜超 SAC 证书编号：S0160522080002 shewc@ctsec.com 分析师 孟欣 SAC 证书编号：S0160523090002 mengxin@ctsec.com 分析师 谢铭 SAC 证书编号：S0160523010001 xieming@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《两轮+四轮车领航者，深化全球布 局迎春风》 2024-09-05 2. 《23Q3 业绩承压，期待四季度景气 度提振》 2023-10-18 春风动力(603129) / 摩托车及其他 / 公司点评 / 20 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/造纸轻工/轻工制造 证券研究报告 春风动力（603129）公司半年报点评 2024 年 09 月 11 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------|--------------| | 股票数据 | | | 09 [ Table_StockInfo 月 11 日收盘价（元） ] | 147.30 | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 78.47-178.57 | | 总股本 / 流通 A 股（百万股） | 151/151 | | 总市值 / 流通市值（百万元） | 22306/22306 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《 Q1 利润表现较好，国内外产能建设推进》 | | | 2024.05.16 | | | 《三季度业绩承压，产品矩阵不断完善》 | | | 2023.10.24 | | | 《两轮新品推出大年，高增速有望延续》 | | | 2023. ...

深 度 研 究 报 告 ＃assAuthor＃ 公 司 研 究 | --- | --- | |--------------------|------------| | | | | 市场数据日期 | 2024-09-06 | | 收盘价（元） | 132.89 | | 总股本（百万股） | 151.43 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 151.43 | | 净资产（百万元） | 5438.32 | | 总资产（百万元） | 12339.9 | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ) | 35.91 | ＃相关报告 relatedReport＃ 《【兴证汽车】春风动力 24H1 业 绩点评：24Q2 业绩超预期，两 轮车表现靓丽》2024-08-16 《【兴证汽车】春风动力 2023 年 报及 2024 一季报点评：公司经 营边际改善，24Q1 业绩超预期》 2024-04-17 《【兴证汽车 戴畅团队】春风动 力 2023 年三季报点评：2023Q3 盈利能力改善，产品持续升级》 2023-11-04 ＃分析师： emailAuthor＃ 董晓彬 dongxiaobin@xyzq.com.cn S0190520080001 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, with a target price of 132.89 yuan per share as of September 6, 2024 [1][3] Core Views - The company is positioned to become a global leader in the Powersport industry, driven by its dual focus on motorcycles and all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) [1] - The company's revenue and net profit have shown strong growth, with a CAGR of 27.4% and 37.1% respectively from 2013 to 2023 [1] - The domestic market for large-displacement motorcycles (>250cc) is expected to grow significantly, with penetration rates projected to increase from 8.6% in 2024H1 to 20% by 2030 [1] - The company's export strategy for large-displacement motorcycles is accelerating, with overseas sales expected to reach 60,000 units by 2030, representing a CAGR of 29.5% from 2023 [1] - The company is focusing on high-end ATV products in the North American market, with sales expected to grow from 190,000 units in 2025 to 273,000 units by 2030 [1] Motorcycle Market Analysis Domestic Market - The domestic market for large-displacement motorcycles (>250cc) is expected to grow, with penetration rates projected to increase from 8.6% in 2024H1 to 20% by 2030 [1] - The company's domestic market share for large-displacement motorcycles is expected to increase from 25% in 2025 to 30% by 2030, with sales reaching 300,000 units [1] - The company's electric motorcycle brand, ZEEHO, is expected to contribute significantly to growth, with sales increasing by 300.4% in 2024H1 [1] Export Market - The overseas market for large-displacement motorcycles (>250cc) is estimated to be 525,000 units in 2023, more than 10 times the domestic market [1] - The company's export sales of motorcycles reached 98,000 units in 2023 and 86,000 units in 2024H1, with a projected CAGR of 29.5% from 2023 to 2030 [1] - The company's competitive advantage in the export market lies in its product quality, cost-effectiveness, and extensive product lineup [1] All-Terrain Vehicle (ATV) Market Analysis - The global ATV market is estimated at 960,000 units in 2023, with high-end UTV products gaining market share [1] - The company is focusing on the North American market, with high-value products contributing to steady growth [1] - The company plans to launch high-performance ATV models in 2024H2, targeting the North American market [1] - ATV sales are expected to grow from 190,000 units in 2025 to 273,000 units by 2030, with a CAGR of 9.3% [1] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 15.2 billion yuan in 2024 to 23.7 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 25.5% [1][2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1.32 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.23 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 31.3% [1][2] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to grow from 8.74 yuan in 2024 to 14.75 yuan in 2026 [1][2] Industry Trends - The global motorcycle market is stable, with annual sales of around 50 million units, dominated by road motorcycles and scooters [54] - The Americas and Europe are key markets for motorcycles, with steady growth in demand [57] - Emerging markets like Turkey and Mexico are showing rapid growth in motorcycle sales, driven by economic factors and increased supply from Chinese manufacturers [58][60]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3] Core Views - The company's Q2 2024 performance showed steady improvement with revenue reaching 4,468 million yuan, up 23.2% YoY and 45.96% QoQ, driven by strong demand for two-wheel motorcycles both domestically and internationally [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders in Q2 2024 was 431 million yuan, up 26.35% YoY and 55.40% QoQ, with a gross margin of 30.82% [2] - The company's all-terrain vehicle (ATV) business remains stable, maintaining a leading position in exports with a 71.75% market share in the industry [3] - The two-wheel motorcycle business saw significant growth, with revenue reaching 3,248 million yuan in H1 2024, up 41.95% YoY, driven by the company's focus on user-centric product development and strong performance in the domestic large-displacement motorcycle market [3] - The company's electric two-wheelers entered the high-end market with a 300% YoY revenue increase [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 14,500 million yuan in 2024E to 20,322 million yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 19.7% from 2024E to 2026E [1][3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1,270 million yuan in 2024E to 1,942 million yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 23.4% [1][3] - EPS is forecasted to grow from 8.39 yuan in 2024E to 12.82 yuan in 2026E [1][3] - ROE is expected to remain stable at around 19% from 2024E to 2026E [1] Business Segments - The ATV business generated 3,532 million yuan in revenue in H1 2024, down 1.55% YoY, but maintained a strong export market share, particularly in the US and Europe [3] - The two-wheel motorcycle business achieved 3,248 million yuan in revenue in H1 2024, up 41.95% YoY, with the company leading the domestic market for motorcycles over 250cc [3] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decline from 16.2x in 2024E to 10.6x in 2026E, indicating potential undervaluation [1] - The P/B ratio is projected to decrease from 3.2x in 2024E to 2.1x in 2026E [1] Financial Ratios - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 33% from 2024E to 2026E [5] - Net margin is forecasted to improve from 9.1% in 2024E to 10.0% in 2026E [5] - ROIC is projected to increase from 12.4% in 2024E to 13.7% in 2026E [5] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - Operating cash flow is expected to grow from 1,743 million yuan in 2024E to 2,491 million yuan in 2026E [6] - The company's total assets are projected to increase from 13,366 million yuan in 2024E to 18,448 million yuan in 2026E [5] - The debt-to-equity ratio is expected to decline from 61.9% in 2024E to 59.4% in 2026E [6]

投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点 | --- | --- | |------------------------|------------| | 基本数据 | 2024-09-04 | | 收盘价 ( 元 ) | 135.55 | | 流通股本 ( 亿股 ) | 1.51 | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ) | 35.91 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 1.51 | | 最近 12 月市场表现 | | -44% -31% -18% -5% 9% 22% 春风动力 沪深300 上证指数 摩托车及其他 分析师 佘炜超 SAC 证书编号：S0160522080002 shewc@ctsec.com 分析师 孟欣 SAC 证书编号：S0160523090002 mengxin@ctsec.com 分析师 谢铭 SAC 证书编号：S0160523010001 xieming@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《23Q3 业绩承压，期待四季度景气 度提振》 2023-10-18 2. 《业绩高增长，受益全球化布局和产 品结构优化》 2023-07-16 春风动力(603129) / 摩托车及其他 / 公司深度研究报告 ...

证券研究报告 公司点评 春风动力(603129.SH) 汽车｜ 摩托车及其他 两轮快速成长，盈利能力改善 2024 年 08 月 23 日 评级 买入 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------|----------|---------------| | 交易数据 \n当前价格（元） | 评级变动 | 首次 \n126.00 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | | 81.10-176.80 | | 总市值（百万） | | 19080.50 | | 流通市值（百万） | | 19080.50 | | 总股本（万股） | | 15143.20 | | 流通股（万股） | | 15143.20 | | | | | 涨跌幅比较 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------|----------|--------------|---------| | | | | | | 36% | 春风动力 | 摩托车及其他 | | | 16% -4% | | | | | -24% | | | | | -44% 2023-0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 128.19 yuan [2] Core Views - The company's two-wheeled vehicle business is experiencing strong growth both domestically and internationally, with significant contributions from overseas markets [1] - The company has achieved a milestone by winning the MotoGP championship in Qatar, marking the first time a Chinese manufacturer has won in the 75-year history of the series [2] - The company's all-terrain vehicle exports account for 71.75% of the domestic market share, solidifying its leading position in the industry [2] - The domestic market for large-displacement motorcycles is growing, driven by increasing consumer interest and technological advancements, with the company leading in the >250cc segment [2] - The company has implemented an employee stock ownership plan, with income targets set at 140 billion yuan for 2024, 305 billion yuan cumulative for 2024-2025, and 505 billion yuan cumulative for 2024-2026, demonstrating confidence in future growth [2] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 7.529 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 15.73%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 709 million yuan, a YoY increase of 28.49% [1] - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 31.51%, a slight decrease of 1.07 percentage points YoY, while the net profit margin increased by 0.94 percentage points to 9.41% [1] - In Q2 2024, revenue reached 4.468 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 23.2%, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 431 million yuan, a YoY increase of 26.35% [1] - The company's two-wheeled vehicle sales in H1 2024 were 153,900 units, a YoY increase of 56%, with domestic sales of 68,000 units (+42% YoY) and overseas sales of 86,000 units (+69% YoY) [1] Product Performance - All-terrain vehicle sales in H1 2024 were 81,400 units, generating revenue of 3.532 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.55% YoY [1] - Two-wheeled vehicle revenue in H1 2024 was 3.248 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 41.95%, with domestic revenue of 1.446 billion yuan (+38% YoY) and overseas revenue of 1.802 billion yuan (+45% YoY) [1] Future Projections - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 14.569 billion yuan in 2024E to 21.874 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 20.31% to 21.67% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 1.318 billion yuan in 2024E to 2.078 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 30.82% to 25.08% [3] - The company's PE ratio is forecasted to decrease from 14.73x in 2024E to 9.34x in 2026E, indicating potential undervaluation [3] Industry Trends - The domestic motorcycle industry is undergoing a transformation towards high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing, with large-displacement motorcycles driving growth [2] - The company is well-positioned in the domestic market for large-displacement motorcycles, with a rapidly improving product portfolio and leading market share in the >250cc segment [2]

1、近期地缘形势相对复杂,公司的想法如何,如何有效降低关税等潜在风险? 答:海外产能未来逐步稳定,关税层面,鉴于竞争对手也在墨西哥设有产能,并大量从中国采购零部件,公司 认为市场竞争环境公平,对墨西哥地区加征关税的可能性不大。若真有相关针对性政策出台,公司将通过在 海外建厂、多元化市场布局等多渠道快速应对,不排除在美国建厂的可能性,但需谨慎评估成本效益。 2、从中国摩托车协会的产销快讯看,公司 2024 年 7 月份摩托车的出口销量环比有所下滑,这个主要原因是 什么?大概什么时候可以修复? 答:首先是国际订单月度间波动的正常影响,去年同期也存在,并不是偶发现象;其次是欧洲市场欧五+证书 切换,欧洲明年将实施更为严格的排放标准,促使经销商切换前尽可能清除库存,减少对新订单的需求;此外, 存在部分客户清关延迟,引起短期内波动。从下半年情况来看,会有比较大的改善。 3、关于欧五+的认证,目前进展如何,有多少车型通过了认证,有哪些困难? 答:公司始终高度重视环保法规的遵循与符合性,针对欧五+排放标准,提前做了相应的准备。公司已实施了 对产品的技术升级,以提升产品的环保性能,确保公司产品能够符合后续相关法规要求。同时, ...