证券研究报告 | 季报点评 金石资源（603505.SH） 公司发布 2024 年一季报。2024Q1 公司实现营收 4.48 亿元，同比+166.5%， 环比-39.6%；归母净利润 6054 万元，同比+74.9%，环比-41.1%；扣非归母 净利润 6114 万元，同比+83.4%，环比-41.8%。业绩同比增长主因包头"选 化一体"放量，环比下滑主因一季度淡季季节性影响。 季节性影响 Q1 单一矿产销环比下滑，包钢选化一体产销释放节奏良好。单 一矿：一季度公司萤石精矿产/销量分别达 5.6/5.4 万吨，环比分别-15.9%/- 51.2%，2024Q1 萤石市场均价 3317 元/吨，同比+11.1%，环比-8.5%；伴 生矿：一季度无水氟化氢项目实现产/销量分别为 2.38/2.4 万吨，环比分别 +11.2%/+11.1%，无水氢氟酸市场均价 9750 元/吨，同比+1.2%，环比9.1%；实现萤石精粉销量 4.14 万吨（不含自用）；锂云母矿：一季度实现锂 云母精矿产/销量分别为 0.95/0.56 万吨，环比分别-43.5%/+69.7%。 供给收紧叠加需求旺季，二季度萤石价格易涨难跌。3 ...

风险提示 矿山开采以及下游化工均属于危险性较高的行业，存在安全生产和环境 保护风险；产品价格大幅波动风险；萤石下游行业众多，存在下游需求不及 预期风险；国家对环境保护以及资源利用效率日益重视，存在萤石资源产业 政策变化风险；矿山资源储量低于预期风险；新项目投产进度及市场需求不 及预期风险等。 李旋坤 邮箱：lixuankun@sxzq.com 研究助理： 刘聪颖 邮箱：liucongying@sxzq.com 请务必阅读最后一页股票评级说明和免责声明 1 公司研究/公司快报 财务数据与估值： | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | 会计年度 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入(百万元 ) | 1,050 | 1,896 | 3,600 | 4,357 | 5,034 | | YoY(%) | 0.7 | 80.5 | 89.9 | 21.0 | 15.5 | | 净利润(百万元 ) | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company achieved a record high in Q1 2024 performance, with revenue of 448 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 166.49%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 60.54 million yuan, up 74.94% year-on-year [7] - The company expects to continue its growth trajectory with clear production targets for various projects, including plans to produce 400,000 to 500,000 tons of fluorite products from its single fluorite mine in 2024 [9] - The recent price performance of fluorite has exceeded expectations, with the average price of 97 wet powder fluorite at 3,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.9% year-on-year [10] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, the company reported a non-recurring net profit of 61.14 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 83.44% [7] - The company's revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are as follows: net profit of 700 million yuan in 2024, 950 million yuan in 2025, and 1.145 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding EPS of 1.16, 1.56, and 1.89 yuan [7] - The company's financial metrics indicate a projected P/E ratio of 27.0 for 2024, 20.0 for 2025, and 16.5 for 2026, suggesting a favorable valuation outlook [7][12] Project Updates - The company has reported stable operational performance across its projects, including a slight decrease in production and sales of fluorite concentrate from its single mine, while prices have increased [9] - The Baotou "selection and processing integration" project produced approximately 125,000 tons of fluorite powder and 23,800 tons of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid, with sales figures reflecting strong demand [9] - The Jiangxi Jinling project produced 9,500 tons of lithium mica concentrate, with a gross margin of about 20% [9]

上 市 公 司 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） 公 司 发布 2024 年 一季报 ，业 绩符 合预 期。 1Q24 公 司实 现营 业收 入 4.48 亿 元 （yoy+166.5%,QoQ-39.6%)，归母净利润为 0.61 亿元（yoy+74.9%,QoQ-41.1%)， 扣非归母净利润为 0.61 亿元（yoy+83.4%,QoQ-40.8%)，管理费用同比增长 41.06%至 0.26 亿元，1Q24 整体销售毛利率同比环比分别下降 24.14、1.75pct 至 20.61%，业绩 符合预期。1Q24 营收同比增长的主要原因为金鄂博氟化工无水氟化氢实现销售以及金鄂 博氟化工对外销售包钢金石萤石粉产生贸易收入，归母净利润同比上涨的原因为包头"选 化一体"项目投产贡献增量业绩，但由于新业务整体毛利率比开采萤石单一矿山低，因此 整体毛利率下行。 1Q24 公司自产萤石精粉产销量同比略有下滑，但萤石价格同比上涨，盈利同比基本持 稳，近期全国萤石矿检查力度加强，萤石供需紧张，价格持续上涨。1Q24 公司自产萤石 精矿产量约 5.6 万吨、销量约 5.4 万吨，同比略有下滑，但萤石价格同比上涨， ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年04月23日 全国供应紧张推动近期萤石价格景气上行，公司单一型萤石利润平稳且新项目已放 量。从全国看，2024 年 2 月起，在矿山开工较低、供应减少的背景下，国内萤 石粉价格再次步入上行通道。3-4 月是传统萤石生产淡季、下游需求旺季；叠加 近期国家矿山安全监察局要求对于矿山企业较多及问题隐患突出的地区进行整 改，多地萤石矿山开工受限，酸级萤石粉供应紧张问题加剧：目前 97%萤石湿粉 市场价 3510 元/吨，已较 2 月低点上涨 7.2%。未来随着行业政策逐渐趋紧、监 管力度不断加大、准入门槛提升，我们看好萤石行业将持续绿色、安全、高质 量发展。从公司看，2024Q1，公司自产单一型萤石精矿产量/销量分别 5.6/5.4 万吨，销量小幅下滑而销售价上涨，净利润整体平稳；包头"选化一体"项目 生产萤石精粉/无水氟化氢分别 12.5/2.38 万吨，对外销售分别 4.14/2.4 万吨。 公司将筑牢萤石行业龙头地位，发展迈入新篇章。随着各矿山和选矿厂建设和改造 的陆续完成，叠加稀土共伴生萤石资源回收领域产能的逐步释放，公司萤石产 量将持续处于全国的领先地位；未来面向蒙古国等的海外资 ...

Investment Rating and Valuation - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 34.89 RMB for 2024 [1][2] - The company's 2024-26 revenue is forecasted at 3.92/5.01/5.58 billion RMB, with growth rates of 107%/28%/12% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 700/970/1,104 million RMB, with growth rates of 102%/38%/14% [1] - EPS is projected at 1.16/1.60/1.83 RMB per share, with a 3-year CAGR of 47% [1] Core Financial Data and Projections - Revenue for 2022-2026 is forecasted at 1,050/1,896/3,921/5,007/5,583 million RMB [1] - EBITDA for the same period is projected at 454/669/1,492/1,986/2,224 million RMB [1] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 85.0 in 2022 to 17.1 in 2026 [1] - ROE is forecasted to increase from 16.44% in 2022 to 32.67% in 2025 before slightly decreasing to 28.73% in 2026 [12] Business Model and Growth Strategy - The company's light-asset model leverages technology to access resources, which is expected to be replicable [1] - The company is expanding globally, with potential for further integration of global resources [1] - The "selection and chemical integration" project is gradually being implemented, contributing to the company's performance [18] - The company is transitioning into a technology platform company, with a focus on light-asset operations [20] Industry and Market Position - The company operates in the basic chemicals/chemical products industry [2] - The company's stock price has shown a relative performance of -30% to 40% compared to the CSI 300 index from 2023/4 to 2024/4 [3] - The company's market capitalization is 18,899.13 million RMB, with a total share capital of 604.77 million shares [2] Recent Performance and Outlook - Q1 2024 revenue was 448 million RMB, a 166% YoY increase, with a net profit of 61 million RMB, up 75% YoY [17] - The company produced 125,000 tons of fluorite concentrate and 23,800 tons of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride in Q1 2024 [18] - Fluorite prices are expected to recover in Q2, with current prices for anhydrous hydrogen fluoride rising to 11,000-11,500 RMB/ton [19] - The company's ROA is expected to perform well due to its light-asset model [20] Global Expansion - The company is starting its global expansion in Mongolia, aiming to integrate global scarce resources [21] - The company's technology is well-suited to address the pain points of Mongolian mining, potentially serving as a starting point for global resource integration [21]

Financial Performance - Net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB 60,535,568.14, representing a year-on-year increase of 74.94%[14]. - Operating income for the period was RMB 448,114,391.69, reflecting a significant increase of 166.49% compared to the same period last year[14]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 57,925,958.90, showing a substantial increase of 318.76% year-on-year[14]. - Total operating revenue for Q1 2024 reached RMB 448,114,391.69, a significant increase of 167.5% compared to RMB 168,155,782.19 in Q1 2023[28]. - Operating profit for Q1 2024 was RMB 70,652,302.10, an increase of 70.7% from RMB 41,363,030.10 in Q1 2023[28]. - Net profit for Q1 2024 amounted to RMB 69,243,857.85, compared to RMB 41,094,956.56 in Q1 2023, reflecting a growth of 68.5%[28]. - The total comprehensive income amounted to ¥62,291,205.08, reflecting a substantial increase from ¥34,057,017.13 in the previous period[29]. - Basic and diluted earnings per share improved to ¥0.10, up from ¥0.06[29]. Assets and Liabilities - Total assets at the end of the reporting period reached RMB 5,448,923,080.15, an increase of 8.68% compared to the end of the previous year[4]. - Total assets as of Q1 2024 were RMB 5,448,923,080.15, up from RMB 5,013,506,192.90 at the end of the previous period, indicating a growth of 8.7%[25]. - Non-current assets totaled RMB 3,618,648,738.15, an increase of 6.5% from RMB 3,397,157,488.53[25]. - Current liabilities decreased slightly to RMB 1,713,000,000.00 from RMB 1,800,000,000.00, reflecting a reduction of approximately 4.8%[25]. - The total liabilities of the company as of the latest report were CNY 3,268,655,250.93, an increase from CNY 2,898,751,899.38 year-over-year[48]. - The total equity attributable to shareholders increased to CNY 1,694,253,757.99 from CNY 1,633,099,366.83, reflecting a growth of approximately 3.7%[48]. - The company's retained earnings rose to CNY 1,025,597,416.85 from CNY 965,061,848.71, marking an increase of approximately 6.7%[48]. Cash Flow - The net cash flow from operating activities for Q1 2024 was CNY 57,925,958.90, compared to CNY 13,832,832.14 in Q1 2023, indicating a substantial improvement[48]. - In Q1 2024, the company reported cash inflows from operating activities of CNY 568,235,473.36, a significant increase from CNY 281,212,916.92 in Q1 2023, representing a growth of approximately 102.2%[48]. - The company incurred cash outflows for investing activities totaling CNY 183,749,341.27 in Q1 2024, down from CNY 324,208,175.83 in Q1 2023, reflecting a decrease of about 43.4%[49]. - Cash inflows from financing activities in Q1 2024 amounted to CNY 434,051,213.97, compared to CNY 606,051,222.09 in Q1 2023, a decline of approximately 28.4%[49]. - The net cash flow from financing activities for Q1 2024 was CNY 208,494,153.38, down from CNY 440,187,159.50 in Q1 2023, indicating a decrease of about 52.7%[49]. - The company reported a net increase in cash and cash equivalents of CNY 82,774,583.29 for Q1 2024, compared to CNY 128,346,092.47 in Q1 2023[49]. Production and Sales - The company produced approximately 56,000 tons of self-produced fluorite concentrate, with sales of about 54,000 tons, indicating a decline compared to the same period last year[10]. - The market price for anhydrous hydrofluoric acid was reported at RMB 11,000-11,500 per ton, up from RMB 9,000-9,500 per ton earlier in the year[10]. - Operating revenue surged by 166.49% due to sales from Jin Ebo fluorochemical anhydrous hydrogen fluoride and trade income from Baotou's "selection and processing integration" project[35]. Shareholder Information - The total number of ordinary shareholders at the end of the reporting period was 16,097, with the largest shareholder holding 49.71% of the shares[7]. - The weighted average return on net assets increased by 1.12 percentage points to 3.64%[14]. Government Support - The company received government subsidies amounting to RMB 1,086,836.28, which were recognized as regular income due to their ongoing impact on the company's operations[17]. Research and Development - Research and development expenses for Q1 2024 were RMB 7,328,816.44, an increase of 31.8% from RMB 5,557,936.32 in Q1 2023[28]. - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence and enhancing product offerings through new technology developments[35]. - The financial results reflect the successful execution of strategic initiatives, including potential mergers and acquisitions to bolster growth[35].

证券代码：603505 证券简称：金石资源 公告编号：2024-024 金石资源集团股份有限公司 关于参加 2023 年报沪市主板新质生产力之传统产业 集体业绩说明会暨召开 2024 年第一季度业绩说明会的 公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： （网址：http://roadshow.sseinfo.com/） 会议召开方式：上证路演中心视频直播和网络互动 问题征集方式：投资者可于 2024 年 4 月 19 日(星期五) 至 4 月 22 日(星期 一)16:00 前通过公司投资者关系邮箱 webmaster@chinesekings.com 进行提问，公 司将在说明会上就投资者普遍关注的问题进行回答。 金石资源集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）已于 2024 年 3 月 29 日披露了 公司 2023 年年度报告，并将于 4 月 23 日披露公司 2024 年第一季度报告，为便于广 大投资者更全面深入地了解公司 2023 年度及 2024 年第一季度经营成果、财务状况， 公司计划于 202 ...

Group 1: Investor Relations Activities - The company conducted offline and online investor meetings from April 1 to April 15, 2024, involving over 100 institutions [2][3][4]. - Key participants included various funds and securities firms, such as Zhonggeng Fund, Ruifeng Fund, and others [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Performance Overview - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 1.896 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 80.54% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 349 million, up 56.89% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of CNY 351 million, increasing by 62.23% [4]. - The sales volume of fluorite products reached 426,600 tons, a 3.92% increase, while sales amounted to 441,300 tons, up 7.01% [4]. Group 3: Growth Drivers - The growth was primarily driven by the production of new projects in Baotou and Jiangxi, which became significant profit contributors [4]. - The average selling price of fluorite products increased by approximately 10.73% [4]. Group 4: Industry Trends and Regulations - A national safety inspection policy for fluorite mines was introduced, which may accelerate the exit of small to medium capacities in the industry [5]. - The policy includes a three-phase approach: self-inspection (March-May), key inspections (June-July), and evaluation (August) [5]. Group 5: Inventory and Production Insights - The company reported significant inventory levels of over 300,000 tons of fluorite concentrate due to production timing mismatches between Baogang Jinshi and Jincheng Fluorine Chemical [6][7]. - The production cost for Jiangxi Jinling Lithium Industry is approximately CNY 2,000 per ton, with a net profit margin of around 40% [7]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The company plans to focus on the Mongolian project before considering expansions into South Africa and South America [8]. - Capital expenditures for 2024 are expected to decrease [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 34.89 CNY for 2024, based on a PE of 30 times [67]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning towards a technology platform model, leveraging a "light asset technology to leverage heavy asset resources" business model, which is expected to enhance its operational efficiency and profitability [20][34]. - The report highlights that the company's net asset value may be underestimated due to early acquisition of mining rights and a unique business model that conceals some assets [39][95]. - The projected revenue growth for the company is significant, with expected revenues of 39.2 billion CNY in 2024, representing a 107% increase from the previous year [67]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 1.896 billion CNY in 2023, with a projected increase to 3.921 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 106.79% [53]. - The EBITDA is expected to rise from 669 million CNY in 2023 to 1.492 billion CNY in 2024 [53]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to reach 703 million CNY in 2024, up from 349 million CNY in 2023 [53]. Asset Valuation - The report indicates that the company's non-current assets to total assets ratio is relatively low, suggesting a "light asset" operational characteristic [24][21]. - The estimated PB (Price to Book) ratio is around 3.5, which is lower than the historical average of 5.5 during stable periods [95]. Market Position and Competitive Analysis - The company is compared with other non-metal and metal mining companies, showing superior ROA and ROE metrics, which indicate better operational efficiency [10][11]. - The report emphasizes the company's strategic positioning in the fluorite market, particularly in relation to the rising demand and potential price increases [39][42]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from rising fluorite prices, with projections indicating that for every 200 CNY increase in fluorite price, the profit from the fluorite segment will increase by 140 million CNY [67]. - The anticipated production from the company's projects in Mongolia is expected to contribute significantly to its revenue and profitability in the coming years [90][97].