证券代码：603565 证券简称：中谷物流 公告编号：2025-037 上海中谷物流股份有限公司 关于持股 5%以上股东权益变动触及 1%刻度的提示性 公告 投资者及其一致行动人保证向本公司提供的信息真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记 载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 本公司董事会及全体董事保证公告内容与信息披露义务人提供的信息一致。 重要内容提示： | 权益变动方向 | 比例增加□ | | 比例减少√ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 权益变动前合计比例 | 62.02% | | | | 权益变动后合计比例 | 60.02% | | | | 本次变动是否违反已作出的承 | 是□ | 否√ | | | 诺、意向、计划 | | | | | 是否触发强制要约收购义务 | 是□ | 否√ | | 一、 信息披露义务人及其一致行动人的基本信息 1.身份类别 | | √控股股东/实际控制人及其一致行动人 | | --- | --- | | | □其他 5%以上大股东及其一致行动人 | | 投资者及其一致行动人的身份 | □合并口径第一大股东及其一致行动人（仅适用 | | | 于无控股股东、实际控制人） | ...

中谷物流公告称，2025年12月5日，股东宁波谷洋投资管理合伙企业（有限合伙）以大宗交易方式减持 公司股份4200.13万股，占总股本2%。信息披露义务人及其一致行动人持股比例从62.02%降至60.02%， 权益变动触及1%整数倍。本次变动是履行减持计划，不触及要约收购，与此前计划、承诺一致，减持 计划尚未执行完毕，也不会导致控股股东及实控人变化。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong high dividend index has a dividend yield of 5.63%, significantly higher than the average yield of 2.96% from 10-year Chinese and U.S. government bonds, indicating strong investment value[11] - The Hong Kong dividend sector is approximately 5-6% cheaper than the overall A-share market after considering a 20% dividend tax[12] - From October 2 to December 1, the high dividend index outperformed the market, with the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect China Central Enterprise Dividend Index rising by 7.62%[3] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The banking sector is expected to enter a stable profit cycle, with a potential reversal of the downward trend in interest margins by 2026[4] - In the transportation sector, the road freight volume growth improved quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, with key companies like Sichuan Chengyu H, Zhejiang Hu-Hangzhou-Ningbo, and Ninghu Expressway showing promise[3] - Coal companies like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy are projected to have dividend yields of 4.7% and 4.44%, respectively, with Yancoal Australia potentially improving its yield to 7.65%[4] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The utility sector is benefiting from cost reductions and expected capacity price increases in 2026, with Huaneng International Power and China Resources Power forecasted to have dividend yields of 6.65% and 5.73%[4] - Real estate companies such as Hang Lung Properties, Swire Properties, and Kerry Properties are projected to yield 7.20%, 5.99%, and 6.53%, respectively, due to the recovery of the Hong Kong economy[4] - Environmental companies like China Everbright Water are expected to have a dividend yield of 8.14%, highlighting opportunities in the sector[4]

Core Conclusion - The report concludes that Zhonggu Logistics (603565.SH) has a leading advantage in profitability and capacity, initiating coverage with a "Buy" rating [3]. Industry Overview - The domestic trade is at an upward demand turning point, supported by RCEP for long-term foreign trade shipping rates [3][4]. - The company is positioned as a leader in domestic trade shipping, holding the top profitability scale in the industry from 2021 to 2025, with a competitive fleet size [3][4]. Financial Projections - Expected EPS for 2025-2027 are projected at 0.93, 0.97, and 1.00 CNY per share, with corresponding PE ratios of 11.38, 10.91, and 10.58 times [3]. - The absolute valuation method estimates the company's per-share value at 14.00 CNY, while the relative valuation method gives a per-share value of 12.07 CNY, leading to a target price of 13.03 CNY [3]. Business Model - Zhonggu Logistics primarily provides container logistics services and is one of the earliest companies in China to specialize in domestic coastal container transportation [4]. - The company has expanded into foreign trade container shipping, launching several near-sea routes and leasing some vessels to enhance its foreign trade operations [4]. Market Dynamics - The government is encouraging consumption to expand domestic demand, with expectations for improvement in 2025 [4]. - The Shanghai Shipping Research Center predicts a 5% growth in domestic container transport capacity supply in 2025, which is lower than the expected demand growth [4]. - Current foreign trade shipping rates are at a low point in a long cycle, with short-term fluctuations expected; however, RCEP's signing is anticipated to support long-term foreign trade fundamentals [4]. Competitive Advantage - The company possesses a significant competitive advantage in fleet size and continues to enhance its own capacity [4]. - Zhonggu Logistics maintains a high dividend payout ratio, reflecting its commitment to sharing benefits with shareholders [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Western Securities indicates that domestic trade is at an upward demand turning point, and RCEP supports long-term freight rates for foreign trade shipping. Zhonggu Logistics, as a leader in domestic shipping, holds the advantage of the largest profit scale in the industry from 2021 to 2025, with a leading fleet size and continuous high dividends providing investment value [1] Company Overview - Zhonggu Logistics primarily provides container logistics services and is one of the earliest companies in China to specialize in domestic coastal container transportation. It ranks second in revenue and first in profit scale within the industry [1] Industry Analysis - In the foreign trade container shipping sector, Zhonggu Logistics has opened multiple near-sea routes and has leased some vessels to cultivate foreign trade routes, effectively integrating the domestic and foreign trade transportation supply chain, which strongly complements its domestic container logistics business [1] - The domestic trade is experiencing an upward demand turning point, while foreign trade shipping rates may face short-term fluctuations. However, the signing of RCEP is expected to support long-term freight rates [1] Investment Recommendation - The report concludes that Zhonggu Logistics has a leading advantage in profitability and capacity scale, initiating coverage with a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis highlights a mixed outlook for the transportation and logistics sectors, with short-term adjustments in stock prices but long-term optimism driven by demand catalysts and industry recovery [2][3][4]. Shipping Industry - Dry bulk shipping stocks have experienced a rapid price correction after a previous surge, primarily influenced by the implementation of the 301 Act and a cooling sentiment in the Fujian region [2]. - The shipping industry is expected to benefit from three demand catalysts: the commissioning of the West Mangdu project altering iron ore shipping dynamics, potential Fed rate cuts boosting commodity demand, and post-war reconstruction in Ukraine increasing bulk shipping needs [2]. - The BDI index increased by 7.1% to 2,275 points, driven by the release of iron ore cargoes in December [3][7]. Passenger Transport - Domestic passenger traffic showed a 5% year-on-year increase, while international passenger traffic rose by 17% [2]. - The average domestic passenger load factor improved by 2.0 percentage points, and international load factor increased by 3.5 percentage points [2]. - The outlook for the passenger transport sector remains positive, with expectations of revenue improvement as demand gradually recovers [2][7]. Logistics Sector - The volume of postal express deliveries rose by 8.9% year-on-year, reaching 4.42 billion pieces [4]. - Air freight prices have shown a positive year-on-year change, with indices reflecting increases of 3.6% to 4.2% [4][8]. - The logistics sector is expected to benefit from improved export expectations and a focus on absolute return opportunities, particularly for companies like SF Express and China Foreign Trade [4][8]. Highway Tolling - The pricing of highway tolls is influenced by local government decisions, with recent increases driven by construction costs and regional debt pressures [5][6]. - Despite the push for toll increases in some regions, the overall trend may lean towards maintaining or reducing tolls to attract freight traffic, complicating large-scale toll hikes nationwide [6].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen a strong performance in the port and shipping sector, with notable gains in stocks such as China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy, driven by a significant increase in the Baltic Dry Index [1] Group 1: Market Performance - China Merchants Energy Shipping reached its historical high, hitting the daily limit up [1] - COSCO Shipping Energy rose over 5%, while COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers increased by 4% [1] - China Merchants South Oil saw an increase of over 3% [1] Group 2: Baltic Dry Index - The Baltic Dry Index rose by 80 points or 3.2% to 2560 points, marking the highest level since December 2023 [1] - This increase represents the 12th consecutive day of growth, with a weekly increase of 12.5% [1] Group 3: Individual Stock Performance - China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872) had a daily increase of 8.74% and a total market capitalization of 77.4 billion [2] - COSCO Shipping Energy (600026) increased by 5.88% with a market cap of 69.9 billion [2] - COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers (600428) rose by 4.03%, valued at 19.8 billion [2] - China Merchants South Oil (601975) saw a 3.21% increase, with a market cap of 15.5 billion [2]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for improvement in the dry bulk shipping market, particularly for Capesize vessels, with freight rates expected to rise further based on the second half of 2025 [3][10] - The West Simandou iron ore project is highlighted as a key catalyst, expected to disrupt the current iron ore supply dominance of Australia and Brazil, with a projected increase in global iron ore demand by approximately 6.8% post full production [3][10] Shipping Industry Overview - The shipping industry is projected to experience a favorable supply-demand dynamic, with limited supply growth and potential demand increases due to various factors, including the West Simandou project and macroeconomic conditions [8][12] - The total market capitalization of the shipping sector is reported at 579.568 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 458.746 billion yuan [4] Oil Shipping - The oil shipping sector is expected to benefit from a global oil production increase, sanctions improving demand structure, and supply constraints, leading to a sustained upward trend in market conditions [6][9] - VLCC freight rates have shown significant strength, with the TD3C route recording a rate of $126,000 per day on November 13, 2025, and an average rate of $104,000 per day for November [6][15] Dry Bulk Shipping - The dry bulk shipping market is recovering, with the BDI index averaging 1997 points, indicating a near five-year high, driven by improved demand for iron ore and coal [6][44] - Supply growth for dry bulk vessels is limited, with Capesize orders at only 9.32%, leading to projected capacity growth rates of 1.4%, 2.2%, and 2.6% for 2025-2027 [10][49] Container Shipping - The container shipping market in Asia remains tight, with a significant portion of new orders focused on ultra-large container ships, while smaller vessels face aging issues [11][68] - Despite a year-on-year decline in freight rates, the Asian container shipping market is expected to maintain demand above industry growth levels due to regional economic growth [11][68] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investments in companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy for oil shipping, and Haitong Development and China Merchants Industry for dry bulk shipping, citing favorable supply-demand dynamics [12][68] - For container shipping, it suggests focusing on Jinjiang Shipping and Zhonggu Logistics, while keeping an eye on Hapag-Lloyd International [12][68]

Core Insights - The shipping and port sector experienced a slight decline of 0.18% on November 25, with China Merchants Energy leading the losses [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3870.02, up 0.87%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12777.31, up 1.53% [1] Shipping and Port Sector Performance - Xiamen Port Authority saw the highest increase, closing at 10.59 with a rise of 4.96% and a trading volume of 330,600 shares, amounting to 345 million yuan [1] - Haitong Development and Strait Shares also reported gains of 2.03% and 1.62%, respectively, with closing prices of 11.05 and 12.54 [1] - Conversely, several companies in the sector, such as Zhi Shang Tire and China Merchants Energy, reported declines of 1.99% and 0.71%, with closing prices of 8.85 and 12.59 [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The shipping and port sector saw a net inflow of 145 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 358 million yuan [2] - Notable net inflows from institutional investors included Rizhao Port with 39.62 million yuan and China Merchants South Oil with 34.46 million yuan [3] - In contrast, retail investors showed significant outflows from companies like Rizhao Port and Ningbo Port, with outflows of 38.41 million yuan and 26.07 million yuan, respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery industry is experiencing resilient demand, with a "de-involution" trend driving up express prices, enhancing corporate profit elasticity, and creating favorable competition opportunities in the medium to long term [15] - The shipping market is expected to benefit from the OPEC+ production increase cycle and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a notable improvement in the oil transportation market's outlook for Q4 2025 [15] - The shipping market is anticipated to recover, supported by environmental regulations limiting the operation of older fleets and the upcoming production of the West Manganese iron ore by the end of 2025 [15] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - In October 2025, the express delivery industry achieved a business volume of 17.6 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with revenue reaching 131.67 billion yuan, up 4.7% year-on-year [4][24] - Major players like YTO, Shentong, and Yunda showed varied growth rates, with YTO's volume increasing by 12.78% and Shentong by 3.97%, while Yunda's volume decreased by 5.11% [4][30] - The industry is transitioning towards high-quality development, with significant improvements in single-ticket revenue due to price increases driven by the de-involution trend [4] Shipping and Ports - VLCC freight rates reached a new high of $136,843 per day, the highest since Q2 2020, driven by tight available capacity and stable inquiry rhythms [8] - The Capesize bulk carrier spot freight rates surpassed $30,000 per day, reflecting a 20% increase over the past week, supported by seasonal demand recovery and strong import demand from China [8] - The BDI index increased by 7.1% to 2225 points, indicating a robust recovery in the bulk shipping market [9] Aviation - In October 2025, civil aviation transported approximately 68 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, and cargo/mail transport reached 917,000 tons, up 13.3% [58] - The overall passenger load factor for major airlines was 86.88%, showing a slight increase from the previous month [62] Road and Rail - From November 10 to November 16, 2025, national freight logistics operated smoothly, with rail freight reaching 81.8 million tons, a 0.17% increase week-on-week [14] - In October 2025, road freight volume was 3.706 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.08% [64] Supply Chain Logistics - The logistics landscape is evolving, with companies like Shenzhen International expected to benefit from the transformation of logistics parks, providing performance elasticity [15] - The industry is witnessing a slowdown in competition, with companies like Debang and Aneng Logistics showing significant profit improvements due to strategic transformations [15]