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国金证券:给予中谷物流买入评级
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-08-31 12:13
Core Viewpoint - Zhonggu Logistics (603565) reported a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, despite a decline in revenue, leading to a "buy" rating from Guojin Securities [1][4]. Financial Performance - For 1H2025, Zhonggu Logistics achieved operating revenue of 5.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.0%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.07 billion yuan, an increase of 41.6% [1][2]. - In Q2 2025, the company recorded operating revenue of 2.77 billion yuan, down 6.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 530 million yuan, up 42.5% [1]. Operational Analysis - The decline in revenue was attributed to market fluctuations and a decrease in transportation container volume, while operating costs fell by 18.4%, resulting in a gross profit of 1.25 billion yuan, a 72% increase year-on-year [2]. - The increase in gross profit was driven by higher foreign trade capacity and rising domestic freight rates, with the average PDCI index for domestic trade in 1H2025 at 1195, up 10.6% year-on-year [2]. Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for 1H2025 was 23.4%, an increase of 10.7 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by increased foreign trade capacity and higher domestic freight rates [3]. - The company's expense ratio decreased to 2.69%, down 0.36 percentage points year-on-year, with financial expenses dropping to 0.19% due to increased interest income from dollar deposits [3]. Dividend Policy - Zhonggu Logistics maintained a high dividend payout ratio, proposing a cash dividend of 0.43 yuan per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 84.27% for 1H2025, exceeding the commitment of at least 60% of distributable profits for the recent three years [3]. Profit Forecast - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 1.9 billion yuan, 1.95 billion yuan, and 2.05 billion yuan respectively, sustaining a "buy" rating [4].
机器学习因子选股月报(2025年9月)-20250831
Southwest Securities· 2025-08-31 04:12
Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: GAN_GRU **Model Construction Idea**: The GAN_GRU model combines Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) for processing volume-price time-series features and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) for encoding time-series features to create a stock selection factor[4][13][41] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **GRU Component**: - Input features include 18 volume-price features such as closing price, opening price, turnover, and turnover rate[14][17][19] - Training data consists of the past 400 days of these features, sampled every 5 trading days, forming a 40x18 matrix to predict cumulative returns over the next 20 trading days[18] - Data preprocessing includes outlier removal and normalization at both time-series and cross-sectional levels[18] - Model architecture: Two GRU layers (128, 128) followed by an MLP (256, 64, 64), with the final output being the predicted return (pRet), which serves as the stock selection factor[22] - Training method: Semi-annual rolling training, with training conducted on June 30 and December 31 each year[18] - Optimization: Adam optimizer, learning rate of 1e-4, IC loss function, early stopping after 10 epochs, and a maximum of 50 training epochs[18] 2. **GAN Component**: - GAN consists of a generator (G) and a discriminator (D)[23] - Generator: Uses LSTM to preserve the time-series nature of the input features, transforming random noise into realistic data samples[33][37] - Loss function: $$ L_{G} = -\mathbb{E}_{z\sim P_{z}(z)}[\log(D(G(z)))] $$ where \( z \) represents random noise, \( G(z) \) is the generated data, and \( D(G(z)) \) is the discriminator's output probability[24][25] - Discriminator: Uses CNN to process the two-dimensional volume-price time-series features, distinguishing between real and generated data[33][37] - Loss function: $$ L_{D} = -\mathbb{E}_{x\sim P_{data}(x)}[\log D(x)] - \mathbb{E}_{z\sim P_{z}(z)}[\log(1-D(G(z)))] $$ where \( x \) is real data, \( D(x) \) is the discriminator's output for real data, and \( D(G(z)) \) is the output for generated data[27][29] - Training: Alternating updates of the generator and discriminator parameters until convergence[30] **Model Evaluation**: The GAN_GRU model effectively captures both time-series and cross-sectional features, leveraging the strengths of GAN and GRU for stock selection[4][13][41] --- Model Backtesting Results - **GAN_GRU Model**: - **IC Mean**: 11.36%[41][42] - **ICIR (Non-Annualized)**: 0.88[42] - **Turnover Rate**: 0.83[42] - **Recent IC**: -2.56%[41][42] - **1-Year IC Mean**: 8.94%[41][42] - **Annualized Return**: 38.09%[42] - **Annualized Volatility**: 23.68%[42] - **IR**: 1.61[42] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 27.29%[42] - **Annualized Excess Return**: 23.52%[41][42] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: GAN_GRU Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Derived from the GAN_GRU model, this factor encodes volume-price time-series features to predict stock returns[4][13][41] **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is generated using the output of the GAN_GRU model, which combines GAN-based feature generation and GRU-based time-series encoding[4][13][41] - The factor undergoes industry and market capitalization neutralization, as well as standardization, before being used for testing[22] **Factor Evaluation**: The GAN_GRU factor demonstrates strong predictive power across various industries, with consistent outperformance in recent years[4][13][41] --- Factor Backtesting Results - **GAN_GRU Factor**: - **IC Mean**: 11.36%[41][42] - **ICIR (Non-Annualized)**: 0.88[42] - **Turnover Rate**: 0.83[42] - **Recent IC**: -2.56%[41][42] - **1-Year IC Mean**: 8.94%[41][42] - **Annualized Return**: 38.09%[42] - **Annualized Volatility**: 23.68%[42] - **IR**: 1.61[42] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 27.29%[42] - **Annualized Excess Return**: 23.52%[41][42]
中谷物流2025年中报简析:净利润同比增长41.59%,盈利能力上升
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-08-30 23:24
证券之星价投圈财报分析工具显示:业务评价:公司去年的ROIC为9.81%,资本回报率一般。去年的净 利率为16.34%,算上全部成本后,公司产品或服务的附加值高。从历史年报数据统计来看,公司上市 以来中位数ROIC为22.55%,投资回报也很好,其中最惨年份2024年的ROIC为9.81%,投资回报也较 好。公司历史上的财报较为好看(注:公司上市时间不满10年,上市时间越长财务均分参考意义越 大。)。偿债能力:公司现金资产非常健康。融资分红:公司预估股息率4.37%。 财报体检工具显示:建议关注公司债务状况(有息资产负债率已达36.06%) 据证券之星公开数据整理,近期中谷物流(603565)发布2025年中报。截至本报告期末,公司营业总收入 53.38亿元,同比下降6.99%,归母净利润10.72亿元,同比上升41.59%。按单季度数据看,第二季度营 业总收入27.69亿元,同比下降6.25%,第二季度归母净利润5.25亿元,同比上升42.5%。本报告期中谷 物流盈利能力上升,毛利率同比增幅84.84%,净利率同比增幅51.66%。 | 基金筒称 | 基金代码 | 持有股数 | 持仓变动 | 数据来源 | ...
上海中谷物流股份有限公司2025年半年度报告摘要
Group 1 - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1,071.55 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with undistributed profits amounting to 2,494.42 million yuan as of June 30, 2025 [1][23] - The proposed profit distribution plan includes a cash dividend of 4.30 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares, totaling approximately 903.03 million yuan, which represents 84.27% of the net profit for the period [1][23] - The board of directors approved the profit distribution plan during the seventh meeting of the fourth board on August 29, 2025, with unanimous support [5][11] Group 2 - The company will hold its first temporary shareholders' meeting on September 15, 2025, to discuss various proposals, including the profit distribution plan [36][37] - The meeting will utilize a combination of on-site and online voting methods, allowing shareholders to participate remotely [37][38] - The company plans to conduct a performance briefing on September 23, 2025, to provide further insights into its financial results and address investor inquiries [28][30]
中谷物流(603565.SH)上半年净利润10.72亿元,同比增长41.59%
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-08-29 10:09
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Zhonggu Logistics (603565.SH) reported a decline in total operating revenue for the first half of 2025, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased significantly [1] Group 2 - The total operating revenue for the first half of 2025 was 5.338 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 6.99% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.072 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 41.59% [1] - The basic earnings per share were reported at 0.51 yuan [1] - The company proposed a cash dividend of 4.3 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares to all shareholders [1]
中谷物流: 2025年半年度利润分配方案公告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-08-29 09:25
证券代码:603565 证券简称:中谷物流 公告编号:2025-022 上海中谷物流股份有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示: ? 每股分配比例:A 股每股派发现金红利 0.43 元(含税)。 ? 本次利润分配以实施权益分派股权登记日登记的总股本为基数,具体 日期将在权益分派实施公告中明确。在实施权益分派的股权登记日前公司总股本 发生变动的,拟维持分配总额不变,相应调整每股分配比例,并将在相关公告中 披露。 一、利润分配方案内容 公司2025年上半年度实现归属于上市公司股东净利润107,154.83万元,2025 年6月底公司母公司未分配利润金额为249,442.44万元。根据《公司法》、 《公司章 程》的规定,结合公司目前总体运营情况及公司所处发展阶段,在保证公司健康 持续发展的前提下,考虑到公司未来业务发展需要,拟定的2025年半年度利润分 配预案如下: 公司拟向全体股东每10股派发现金红利4.30元(含税)。截至2025年6月30日, 公司总股本2,100,063,103股,以此计算合计 ...
中谷物流: 第四届董事会第七次会议决议公告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-08-29 09:25
证券代码:603565 证券简称:中谷物流 公告编号:2025-024 该议案已经董事会审计委员会及独立董事专门会议审议无异议通过。 具体内容详见上海证券交易所网站同日披露的《2025 年半年度募集资金存 放与使用情况的专项报告》。 表决结果:赞成 9 票,反对 0 票,弃权 0 票。 上海中谷物流股份有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、董事会会议召开情况 上海中谷物流股份有限公司第四届董事会第七次会议于 2025 年 8 月 29 日召 开,会议通知及相关文件于会议 10 日前发出。本次会议在公司会议室以现场结 合通讯方式召开,会议应参加董事 9 人,实际参加董事 9 人,会议由董事长周斌 先生主持,符合《公司法》及《公司章程》的有关规定,会议合法有效。 二、董事会会议审议情况 表决结果:赞成 9 票,反对 0 票,弃权 0 票。 该议案已经董事会审计委员会及独立董事专门会议审议无异议通过。 具体内容详见上海证券交易所网站同日披露的《2025 年半年度报告》及其 摘要。 表决结果:赞成 9 票,反对 ...
中谷物流: 第四届监事会第七次会议决议公告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-08-29 09:25
证券代码:603565 证券简称:中谷物流 公告编号:2025-025 上海中谷物流股份有限公司 本公司监事会及全体监事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、 监事会会议召开情况 上海中谷物流股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")第四届监事会第七次会议于 通讯方式通知全体监事。本次会议在公司会议室以现场结合通讯方式召开,应参 加表决的监事 3 人,实际参加表决的监事 3 人,会议由监事会主席赵尉华女士主 持,符合《公司法》和《公司章程》的有关规定,会议合法有效。 表决结果:赞成 3 票,反对 0 票,弃权 0 票。 具体内容详见上海证券交易所网站同日披露的《2025 年半年度报告》及其 摘要。 表决结果:赞成 3 票,反对 0 票,弃权 0 票。 二、监事会会议审议情况 具体内容详见上海证券交易所网站同日披露的《2025 年半年度募集资金存 放与使用情况的专项报告》。 表决结果:赞成 3 票,反对 0 票,弃权 0 票。 本议案尚需提交股东大会审议。 具体内容详见上海证券交易所网站同日披露的《2025 年半年度利润分配方 案公告》。 表决结 ...
中谷物流: 关于召开2025年第一次临时股东大会的通知
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-08-29 09:25
? 本次股东大会采用的网络投票系统:上海证券交易所股东大会网络投票 系统 一、 召开会议的基本情况 证券代码:603565 证券简称:中谷物流 公告编号:2025-026 上海中谷物流股份有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示: ? 股东大会召开日期:2025年9月15日 (一)股东大会类型和届次 (二)股东大会召集人:董事会 (三)投票方式:本次股东大会所采用的表决方式是现场投票和网络投票相结合的 方式 (四)现场会议召开的日期、时间和地点 召开的日期时间:2025 年 9 月 15 日 14 点 30 分 召开地点:上海市浦东新区民生路 1188 号 18 楼会议室 (五)网络投票的系统、起止日期和投票时间。 网络投票系统:上海证券交易所股东大会网络投票系统 网络投票起止时间:自2025 年 9 月 15 日 至2025 年 9 月 15 日 采用上海证券交易所网络投票系统,通过交易系统投票平台的投票时间为股 东大会召开当日的交易时间段,即 9:15-9:25,9:30-11:30,13:0 ...
中谷物流(603565) - 关于取消监事会、修订《公司章程》及相关制度的公告
2025-08-29 09:02
证券代码:603565 证券简称:中谷物流 公告编号:2025-023 关于取消监事会、修订《公司章程》及相关制度的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、取消监事会情况 根据《中华人民共和国公司法》《上市公司章程指引》等相关法律法规的规 定,结合公司实际情况,公司将不再设置监事会,监事会的职权由董事会审计委 员会行使,《监事会议事规则》等监事会相关制度相应废止;在公司股东大会审 议通过取消监事会前,公司第四届监事会仍将严格按照《公司法》《证券法》《上 市公司治理准则》等相关法律法规的要求,继续履行相应的职责。 取消监事会及废止《监事会议事规则》等监事会相关制度的事项尚需提交股 东大会审议。 上海中谷物流股份有限公司 二、修订《公司章程》情况 根据《中华人民共和国公司法》《上市公司章程指引》《上海证券交易所股 票上市规则》等法律、法规、规范性文件的规定,公司取消监事会,由审计委员 会承接监事会职权;公司依据前述法律法规增设职工代表董事;另外,公司结合 实际情况对《公司章程》部分条款进行相应修订,主要修订条款见 ...