东兴证券研报指出，中谷物流上半年实现归母净利润10.72亿元，同比增长41.59%。上半年业绩略超预 期，外贸租船持续景气。盈利增长主要系报告期内贸运价上涨及外贸运力投放增加。由于将部分运力调 整至利润率更高的外贸租船业务，公司上半年毛利率由去年同期的12.6%提升至23.4%，毛利率大幅增 长，带动盈利快速提升。认为公司的高分红政策是可持续的，若今年全年按照85%左右的分红比例计 算，以25年预期盈利计算，股息率高达7.8%，具备较强吸引力，维持公司"推荐"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7]. Core Views - In Q2, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 520 million yuan, an increase of 42.5%. The non-recurring net profit was 380 million yuan, up 172.9% year-on-year. The high demand for external chartered ships has led to a tightening of domestic supply, improving both supply and pricing [5][11]. - The company has proposed a mid-term dividend for the first time, with a payout ratio of 84.3% and an annualized dividend yield of 8.2%, emphasizing shareholder returns [11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 5.34 billion yuan, down 7.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.07 billion yuan, up 41.6%. The non-recurring net profit was 820 million yuan, an increase of 94.3% [5]. - In Q2, the company recorded a gross margin of 21.0%, an increase of 12.0 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the contribution from external chartered ships [11]. Market Dynamics - The external chartered ship market remains robust, with charter rates for 4,400 TEU vessels averaging 54.6k USD/day in Q2, a year-on-year increase of 57.7%. This has allowed the company to enhance its capacity deployment in the foreign trade market [11]. - Domestic shipping demand has shown signs of improvement, with container throughput in the first two quarters recording year-on-year changes of +2.1% and -2.1%, respectively. The domestic shipping price index has also improved significantly [11]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a strong domestic shipping peak season in Q4, which is expected to release performance elasticity. Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 2.14 billion, 2.43 billion, and 2.50 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.3, 9.0, and 8.8 times [11].

Market Performance - The shipping and port sector increased by 0.3% compared to the previous trading day, with Nanjing Port leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3858.13, down 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12553.84, down 2.14% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Nanjing Port (002040) closed at 10.03, up 3.62% with a trading volume of 300,200 shares and a transaction value of 301 million yuan [1] - Other notable gainers include: - Air China Securities (833171) up 2.61% to 10.61 [1] - Ningbo Maritime (600798) up 2.56% to 4.01 [1] - Ningbo Ocean (601022) up 2.49% to 9.88 [1] - Conversely, the following stocks experienced declines: - HNA Technology (600751) down 3.64% to 4.24 [2] - Strait Shares (002320) down 2.65% to 8.09 [2] - Tianjin Port (600717) down 2.18% to 4.94 [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The shipping and port sector saw a net outflow of 150 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 198 million yuan [2] - Notable capital flows include: - China Ocean Shipping (601919) with a main fund net inflow of 129 million yuan [3] - Zhonggu Logistics (603565) with a main fund net inflow of 35 million yuan [3] - Nanjing Port (002040) with a main fund net inflow of 10 million yuan [3]

Core Insights - Zhonggu Logistics (603565.SH) reported a total revenue of 5.338 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, ranking 14th among disclosed peers [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.072 billion yuan, ranking 8th among peers, representing an increase of 315 million yuan or 41.59% year-on-year [1] - The net cash inflow from operating activities was 1.280 billion yuan, ranking 13th among peers, with a year-on-year increase of 301 million yuan or 30.80% [1] Financial Metrics - The latest debt-to-asset ratio is 56.98%, a decrease of 1.85 percentage points from the same period last year [3] - The latest gross profit margin is 23.36%, an increase of 10.72 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The latest return on equity (ROE) is 10.25%, ranking 1st among peers, with an increase of 2.66 percentage points from the previous year [3] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is 0.51 yuan, ranking 4th among peers, with an increase of 0.15 yuan or 41.67% year-on-year [3] - The total asset turnover ratio is 0.22 times, ranking 10th among peers [3] - The inventory turnover ratio is 73.01 times, ranking 3rd among peers, with an increase of 10.71 times year-on-year, marking two consecutive years of growth and a year-on-year increase of 17.19% [3] Shareholder Structure - The number of shareholders is 27,400, with the top ten shareholders holding 1.544 billion shares, accounting for 73.51% of the total share capital [3] - The largest shareholder is Zhonggu Shipping Group Co., Ltd., holding 57.46% [3] - Other notable shareholders include Ningbo Guyang Investment Management Partnership (7.01%) and China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. - SSE Dividend ETF (2.17%) [3]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The oil shipping sector is currently undervalued, with companies showing resilience and dividend support, suggesting a focus on left-side opportunities and seasonal demand improvements [1] - Recent shipping price updates indicate a rebound in container shipping rates for the US routes, while European routes have declined. The SCFI index shows a week-on-week change of +17.0% for US routes and -11.2% for European routes [2] - The dry bulk shipping market has seen a strong recent increase in freight rates, with the BDI index up by 7.0% week-on-week, indicating potential demand improvements [2] Group 2: Company Focus - Companies such as COSCO Shipping Energy (中远海能), China Merchants Energy Shipping (招商轮船), and China Merchants Jinling (招商南油) are highlighted as key players to watch due to their potential for growth and dividend yields [1] - High-dividend private enterprises like Seaspan (海丰国际) and Zhonggu Logistics (中谷物流) are recommended for their short-term and long-term value propositions, particularly during the peak season in the second half of the year [1] - The small container ship supply in the Asian region is expected to remain tight, with only a 1-2% annual increase in supply over the next three years, while the proportion of older ships (over 25 years) is at 11.2% [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The average capacity of vessels in the Asian region is concentrated in larger global operators, with the top ten companies holding about 70% of the capacity share, indicating a high chartering ratio [3] - The deployment of vessels in Asia is primarily focused on larger ships (3,000 TEU and above), which creates a competitive landscape with companies like Seaspan focusing on smaller vessels for regional routes [3]

Market Overview - On September 1, the shipping and port sector rose by 0.24% compared to the previous trading day, with Zhonggu Logistics leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3875.53, up 0.46%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12828.95, up 1.05% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the shipping and port sector included: - Zhonggu Logistics (603565) with a closing price of 11.17, up 6.69% and a trading volume of 507,400 shares, totaling 563 million yuan [1] - COSCO Shipping Energy (600026) closed at 10.65, up 2.90% with a trading volume of 755,500 shares, totaling 804 million yuan [1] - COSCO Shipping Specialized (600428) closed at 6.85, up 2.54% with a trading volume of 646,700 shares, totaling 440 million yuan [1] - Conversely, some stocks experienced declines: - Tianjin Port (600717) closed at 5.05, down 2.13% with a trading volume of 491,700 shares, totaling 250 million yuan [2] - Air China Securities (833171) closed at 10.34, down 1.43% with a trading volume of 102,600 shares, totaling 107 million yuan [2] - Tangshan Port (601000) closed at 3.93, down 1.26% with a trading volume of 599,600 shares, totaling 237 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The shipping and port sector saw a net outflow of 385 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 227 million yuan [2] - Notable capital flows included: - China Merchants Port (001872) with a net inflow of 34.58 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 40.87 million yuan from retail investors [3] - COSCO Shipping Specialized (600428) with a net inflow of 28.17 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 32.08 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zhonggu Logistics is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 12.50 [1][4]. Core Views - The report highlights strong profit growth, with a significant increase in net profit by 41.6% year-on-year, driven by a high demand in the foreign trade container leasing market [1][4]. - The company announced an interim dividend of RMB 0.43 per share, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 84.3%, which is attractive for investors [1][4]. - The outlook for the second half of the year is optimistic, with expectations of improved freight rates in the domestic market due to seasonal demand and sustained high rental income from foreign trade [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Zhonggu Logistics reported revenue of RMB 5.34 billion, a decrease of 7.0% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached RMB 1.07 billion, an increase of 41.6% [1][4]. - The company's non-recurring net profit was RMB 820 million, showing a remarkable growth of 94.3% year-on-year [1][4]. Market Analysis - The foreign trade container leasing market is experiencing high demand, with the average one-year lease rate for small and medium-sized container ships increasing by 82.0% to USD 61,146 per day [2]. - The report notes that the supply of small and medium-sized container ships is at a historically low level, which supports high rental rates [2]. Domestic Market Insights - The domestic market saw a 10.6% year-on-year increase in container freight rates, driven by reduced supply as some capacity was leased to foreign trade [3]. - The company's water transport business revenue was RMB 4.48 billion, down 1.4% year-on-year, while land transport revenue fell by 28.2% to RMB 860 million [3]. Profit Forecasts and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been raised by 2%, 19%, and 9% respectively, with expected net profits of RMB 1.94 billion, RMB 2.05 billion, and RMB 1.96 billion [4]. - The target price has been adjusted upwards by 3% to RMB 12.50 based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.6x for 2025 [4].

Performance Overview - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 5.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.0%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.07 billion yuan, an increase of 41.6% [1] - The second quarter revenue was 2.77 billion yuan, down 6.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 530 million yuan, up 42.5% [1] - The decline in revenue was primarily due to market fluctuations and a decrease in shipping container volumes, while operating costs fell by 18.4%, leading to a gross profit of 1.25 billion yuan, a 72% increase year-on-year [1] Profitability Factors - The increase in gross profit margin to 23.4%, up 10.7 percentage points year-on-year, was attributed to increased foreign trade capacity and rising domestic shipping prices [1] - The average PDCI index for domestic trade in the first half of 2025 was 1195, reflecting a 10.6% year-on-year increase in shipping prices [1] Expense Management - The company's period expense ratio was 2.69%, down 0.36 percentage points year-on-year, with management expenses increasing to 2.03% due to revenue decline [2] - Financial expenses decreased to 0.19%, down 0.68 percentage points, mainly due to increased interest income from large dollar deposits [2] - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders rose to 20.1%, an increase of 6.9 percentage points year-on-year [2] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.43 yuan per share, with a dividend payout ratio of 84.27% [3] - The company has committed to a minimum dividend payout of 60% of distributable profits over the last three years, with the current dividend exceeding this commitment [3] Future Projections - The net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are maintained at 1.9 billion yuan, 1.95 billion yuan, and 2.05 billion yuan respectively [4] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its performance and projections [4]

Macro Insights - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar and a basket of currencies has been notable, with a 0.4% increase observed on August 28-29 [2] - The manufacturing PMI for August showed a slight recovery to 49.4% from 49.3% in July, indicating marginal improvement in manufacturing activity [3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.3% from 50.1% in July, suggesting a stable outlook for the service sector [3] Investment Strategy - The technology sector is experiencing increased investor interest, with TMT transaction volume exceeding 40% of total market activity, indicating a shift towards fundamental-driven market behavior [5] - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from Renminbi appreciation, such as consumption, non-bank financials, and electric new energy, which are currently at relatively low valuations [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining flexibility in investment strategies, particularly in the context of market volatility and sector rotation [8] Company Performance - Alibaba's Q1 FY26 revenue reached 247.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, with adjusted EBITA declining by 13.7% [14] - Huichuan Technology reported a 26.73% increase in revenue for H1 2025, reaching 20.509 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.968 billion yuan, up 40.15% [18] - Zhonggu Logistics experienced a 41.6% increase in net profit for H1 2025, despite a 7.0% decline in revenue, attributed to high demand in the foreign trade container leasing market [19] Sector Analysis - The beverage sector showed strong sales performance, with revenue growth of 22.8% in Q2 2025, while the snack food sector faced challenges with a 0.3% decline [12] - The insurance sector is seeing a shift towards high-yield stocks, with the average allocation to FVOCI stocks increasing by 1.3 percentage points to 4.2% [10] - The real estate sector is under pressure, with China Overseas Development reporting a 4% decline in revenue for H1 2025, but maintaining a strong project pipeline for future growth [22]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company Overview - The company discussed is Zhonggu Logistics, focusing on its performance in the logistics industry for the first half of 2025. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's non-GAAP net profit reached 1.072 billion yuan, with 1 billion yuan attributed to sustainable income, 750 million yuan from foreign trade, and 250 million yuan from domestic trade [1][5][2]. - The second quarter saw a decline in non-GAAP net profit compared to the first quarter, primarily due to lower domestic freight rates and a lack of asset disposal gains, which were 70 million yuan in the first quarter [1][3][4]. - The company's operating costs increased due to a reduction in loaded tonnage to 1.2 million tons, resulting in a year-on-year increase of over 10% [1][6][8]. Market Dynamics - The domestic logistics market experienced a 40% reduction in capacity compared to the previous year, leading to a contraction in domestic trade volume despite a slight recovery in freight rates [2][5]. - Conversely, foreign trade capacity increased by approximately 40% year-on-year, with leasing prices remaining high, contributing to better performance in foreign trade [2]. - The competitive landscape in the domestic market has stabilized, with expectations for freight rates to rise in the fourth quarter, driven by historical trends [9][10][11]. Cost Structure and Challenges - The mismatch between capacity and cargo volume has been a significant factor in rising costs, with a 15% increase noted in the first half of the year [7][8]. - Fixed asset depreciation has also contributed to increased costs per container, despite the company maintaining industry-leading efficiency [6][8]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates an increase in freight rates in the fourth quarter, contingent on demand stability [10][12]. - The foreign trade segment faces uncertainties due to U.S. tariffs, but the overall trend remains positive [10][12]. - The company has successfully signed long-term contracts for foreign trade vessel leases, with all contracts post-April 2025 being for two years or more [13]. Investment and Dividend Strategy - The company achieved a high dividend payout ratio of 84% in the mid-year report, with plans to maintain a minimum of 60% for the full year [16]. - Management is focused on exploring new business directions to achieve growth beyond existing domestic and foreign container operations [17]. Additional Insights - Demand for small vessels in the foreign trade market remains strong, with ongoing negotiations for potential deployment despite cost challenges [14]. - The company aims to enhance investor returns through improved dividend strategies and innovative business developments [16][17].