证券之星消息，10月27日航运港口板块较上一交易日上涨0.58%，渤海轮渡领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3996.94，上涨1.18%。深证成指报收于13489.4，上涨1.51%。航运港口板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603167 | 渤海轮渡 | 10.37 | 4.85% | 20.33万 | 2.09亿 | | 920571 | 国航远洋 | 10.57 | 2.62% | 27.98万 | 2.97亿 | | 616169 | 中远海控 | 14.87 | 2.48% | 116.63万 | 17.28亿 | | 601083 | 锦江航运 | 12.39 | 1.56% | 14.38万 | 1.78亿 | | 001872 | 指商港口 | 20.67 | 1.03% | 4.75万 | 9844.43万 | | 601008 | 连云港 | 5.91 | 1.03% | 60.82万 | 3.60亿 | | 600798 | 宁波海运 | 4. ...

证券研究报告 交通运输 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 10 月 27 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 联系人 板块表现： 9 月快递行业业务量增长 12.7%，民航新航季启动 投资评级： 看好（维持） —交通运输行业周报（2025 年 10 月 20 日-2025 年 10 月 26 日） 投资要点： 一、行业动态跟踪 快递物流： 1）国家邮政局公布 9 月快递行业数据，快递业务量同比增长 12.7%。2025 年 9 月 我国快递业务量完成 168.8 亿件，同比增长 12.7%，快递业务收入完成 12 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨运输 [Table_Title] 油运制裁再度升级，物流科技投融资提速 ——交运周专题 2025W43 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 出行链：客运量恢复增长，票价同比下滑 海运：集运挺价意愿较强，油散运价小幅回调 物流：物流科技融资提速，件量增速环比改善 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490520020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S0490520080027 SAC：S0490524120001 SFC：BQK468 SFC：BWN875 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 韩轶超 赵超 鲁斯嘉 张银晗 胡俊文 海运：集运挺价意愿较强，油散运价小幅回调 油运小幅回落：本周克拉克森平均 VLCC-TCE 下跌 8.4%至 79k 美元/天。临近周末，中东运 价趋于稳定，下周随货盘释放预计上行。此外，本周欧美宣布对俄实施新制裁，或导致俄油出 口波动，利好合规原油运输需求。集运淡季挺价：本周外贸集运 SCFI 综合指 ...

Group 1: Logistics - The logistics industry is expected to undergo a paradigm shift towards high-quality development, driven by policy changes and the "anti-involution" movement, which aims to ensure the rights of delivery personnel and improve profitability [4][24][30] - The logistics sector is entering a new phase of overseas expansion, with companies like Jitu Express and Jiayou International transitioning from initial stages to more advanced operations, focusing on management and capacity exports [4][8][35] Group 2: Aviation - The aviation industry is poised for recovery, benefiting from a resurgence in business travel demand since September, leading to improved revenue and cost dynamics [9][51] - The supply side is tightening, with low aircraft deliveries expected in 2025 and high capacity utilization rates, indicating a potential for revenue and cost resonance in the industry [9][51] Group 3: Shipping - The shipping sector is influenced by both seasonal and non-seasonal factors, with a focus on oil transportation due to OPEC+ production adjustments and the expected positive impact of new projects in the dry bulk segment [10][20] - The container shipping market is facing tariff disruptions, but demand is anticipated to rise due to proposed measures from the 301 investigation, which may boost feeder vessel demand [10][20] Group 4: Highways - Highway companies are regaining attractiveness in terms of valuation and dividend yield, with a focus on low valuation and high dividend characteristics [11][20] - The widening gap between highway company dividend yields and ten-year government bond yields suggests a return to a high cost-performance ratio for these assets [11][20]

Core Viewpoint - Zhonggu Logistics has shown a significant increase in stock price and trading activity, indicating positive market sentiment and potential growth opportunities in the logistics sector [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of October 23, Zhonggu Logistics' stock price rose by 2.06% to 11.41 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 139 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.59%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 23.962 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has increased by 32.98% year-to-date, with a 7.54% rise over the last five trading days, 5.36% over the last 20 days, and 13.76% over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Zhonggu Logistics reported a revenue of 5.338 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 6.99%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 41.59% to 1.072 billion CNY [1]. - The company has distributed a total of 8.127 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 4.386 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, Zhonggu Logistics had 27,400 shareholders, an increase of 32.52% from the previous period, with an average of 76,636 circulating shares per shareholder, a decrease of 24.54% [1]. - Major shareholders include Huatai-PB Shanghai Composite Dividend ETF, which holds 45.5778 million shares, and Guotou Securities, which is a new shareholder with 29.1517 million shares [2].

Market Overview - The shipping and port sector declined by 0.62% on October 22, with Haixia Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3913.76, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12996.61, down 0.62% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the shipping and port sector included: - Zhonggu Logistics (603565) with a closing price of 11.18, up 1.82% [1] - Tangshan Port (601000) at 4.00, up 1.01% [1] - COSCO Shipping Specialized (600428) at 7.21, up 0.84% [1] - Major decliners included: - Haixia Co. (002320) at 13.59, down 7.55% [2] - Antong Holdings (600179) at 4.29, down 6.94% [2] - Haitong Development (603162) at 10.63, down 6.01% [2] Trading Volume and Capital Flow - The shipping and port sector experienced a net outflow of 752 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 708 million yuan [2][3] - The trading volume for Zhonggu Logistics was 177,100 shares, with a transaction value of 197 million yuan [1] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Zhonggu Logistics (603565) had a net inflow of 10.93 million yuan from retail investors, while institutional investors saw a net outflow of 54.53 million yuan [3] - COSCO Shipping Holdings (601866) had a net inflow of 73,040 yuan from retail investors, with a minor outflow from institutional investors [3]

Core Insights - The shipping and port sector experienced a rise of 0.48% on October 21, with Ningbo Marine leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3916.33, up 1.36%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13077.32, up 2.06% [1] Sector Performance - Ningbo Marine (600798) closed at 4.22, with a gain of 3.18% and a trading volume of 1.0529 million shares, amounting to a transaction value of 438 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include: - Haixia Co. (002320) at 14.70, up 2.80% with a volume of 2.0146 million shares [1] - COSCO Shipping Development (601866) at 2.65, up 2.32% with a volume of 1.3505 million shares [1] - Ningbo Ocean (601022) at 10.66, up 1.91% with a volume of 330,700 shares [1] - Liaoning Port (601880) at 1.80, up 1.69% with a volume of 1.5551 million shares [1] Capital Flow - The shipping and port sector saw a net outflow of 238 million yuan from institutional funds and 282 million yuan from speculative funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 520 million yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The express logistics sector is experiencing resilient demand, with a "de-involution" trend driving up express prices, enhancing corporate profitability. The long-term outlook for e-commerce express logistics is positive due to healthy competition [3][13] - The shipping sector is expected to benefit from the OPEC+ production increase and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a notable improvement in VLCC freight rates anticipated in Q4 2025 [13] - The aviation industry is seeing stable demand growth, with supply chain issues leading to increased costs for airlines. The overall passenger demand is projected to grow by 10.4% in 2024, outpacing capacity growth [9][14] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - In September 2025, major express companies reported improved performance, with YTO, Shentong, and Yunda achieving business volumes of 2.627 billion, 2.187 billion, and 2.110 billion pieces, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 13.64%, 9.46%, and 3.63% [3][27] - The average revenue per piece for these companies also saw increases, indicating a trend of rising prices in the express delivery sector [3][27] Shipping and Ports - The implementation of new port fees between China and the US is expected to create a dual market structure, granting strategic pricing power to compliant shipping capacities [5] - China has secured pricing power for iron ore, marking a significant shift in global commodity trade dynamics [6] - The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose by 12.9% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in shipping rates [7] Aviation - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported that supply chain bottlenecks are delaying aircraft production, leading to increased costs for airlines, estimated to exceed $11 billion in 2025 [9] - Chinese airlines collectively oppose the US Department of Transportation's proposed flight restrictions, highlighting concerns over operational impacts [10] Road and Rail - National logistics operations were reported to be running smoothly, with significant increases in highway freight traffic [12] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to enhance electric vehicle charging infrastructure along highways by 2027 [12] Overall Market Performance - From October 13 to October 17, 2025, the transportation sector index increased by 0.73%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 1.47% [18]

Core Insights - The shipping and port sector experienced a rise of 0.78% on October 20, with Antong Holdings leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3863.89, up 0.63%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12813.21, up 0.98% [1] Stock Performance - Antong Holdings (600179) closed at 4.71, with a significant increase of 10.05% and a trading volume of 2.5053 million shares [1] - Haitong Development (603162) saw a rise of 9.63%, closing at 12.30 with a trading volume of 846,100 shares [1] - Xiamen Port Authority (000905) increased by 5.98%, closing at 9.92 with a trading volume of 1.4216 million shares [1] - Other notable performers include Phoenix Shipping (000520) up 4.04% and COSCO Energy (600026) up 3.96% [1] Capital Flow - The shipping and port sector experienced a net outflow of 282 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 205 million yuan [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors withdrawing funds while retail investors are actively buying [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - China Merchants South Oil (601975) had a net inflow of 96.09 million yuan from institutional investors, but saw a net outflow from retail investors [3] - COSCO Energy (600026) also experienced a significant net inflow of 90.75 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors withdrawing funds [3] - Other stocks like Jinjiang Shipping (601083) and China Merchants Shipping (601872) showed similar patterns of institutional inflows and retail outflows [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [8] Core Insights - The travel chain is experiencing a recovery in demand, with ticket prices showing a positive trend and a clear inflection point in revenue [2][5] - The shipping sector is witnessing a seasonal surge in freight rates due to peak season and geopolitical factors [6] - The logistics sector is seeing a year-on-year increase in unit prices for major express delivery companies, with a second round of price hikes initiated [6] Summary by Sections Aviation - Demand recovery is evident, with business travel gradually increasing since September, leading to improved revenue margins. The industry is expected to benefit from a tightening supply side and lower fuel costs, resulting in a resonance of income and costs [5][17] - The introduction of new aircraft is expected to remain slow in 2025, with engine maintenance squeezing capacity. The industry is projected to reach historical highs in capacity utilization [5][17] Shipping - Oil shipping rates are on the rise, with the average VLCC-TCE increasing by 8.7% to $86,000 per day. Geopolitical events and OPEC+ production increases are expected to support the oil shipping market [6][22] - The SCFI index for foreign trade shipping has risen by 12.9% to 1,310 points, driven by increased demand and tariff adjustments [6][22] - The BDI index for bulk shipping has increased by 6.9% to 2,069 points, supported by stable overseas mining shipments [6][22] Logistics - The express delivery sector is seeing a year-on-year increase in unit prices, with a second round of price hikes underway. The overall performance of the sector is expected to improve in Q4 and next year [6][36] - The average daily collection volume for postal express services has decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, indicating seasonal effects and price adjustments [6][36]