Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Changjiu Logistics [2][7][25] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.326 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.54%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.1688 million yuan, a decline of 80.66% year-on-year, which is within the expected range [7] - The new highway overload control policies are expected to lead to a clearer and stronger enforcement compared to previous years, which will positively impact freight rates [7][10] - The anticipated increase in freight rates due to the new policies is estimated to be around 27%, which could significantly enhance the profit elasticity for Changjiu Logistics [11][13] - The logistics industry is undergoing a consolidation phase, with smaller companies facing risks of elimination, while leading companies like Changjiu Logistics are expected to gain market share and improve service quality [16] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Changjiu Logistics are as follows: 4.896 billion yuan for 2025, 5.711 billion yuan for 2026, and 6.587 billion yuan for 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 17.3%, 16.7%, and 15.3% [6][20] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 88 million yuan in 2025, 129 million yuan in 2026, and 153 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 10.8%, 46.7%, and 18.1% respectively [6][20] - The report maintains the profit forecast for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 60x, 41x, and 35x [7][20]

Core Viewpoint - Long-term Logistics (603569) reported mixed financial results for the first half of 2025, with significant revenue growth but a sharp decline in net profit, raising concerns about the company's financial health and operational efficiency [1][11]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 2.326 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.54% compared to 1.824 billion yuan in 2024 [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.17 million yuan, down 80.66% from 52.57 million yuan in the previous year [1]. - The gross profit margin decreased to 8.32%, a decline of 31.74% from 12.19% in 2024 [1]. - The net profit margin fell to 0.94%, down 74.57% from 3.68% in 2024 [1]. Cash Flow and Debt - Operating cash flow per share increased by 150.67% to 0.36 yuan, compared to 0.15 yuan in 2024 [1]. - The company’s cash and cash equivalents rose by 29.10% to 743 million yuan [1]. - Interest-bearing liabilities increased by 12.65% to 1.685 billion yuan [1]. Accounts Receivable and Expenses - Accounts receivable amounted to 1.21 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.23% from 1.276 billion yuan [1]. - Total selling, general, and administrative expenses were 189 million yuan, accounting for 8.13% of revenue, down 21.84% year-on-year [1]. - The ratio of accounts receivable to net profit reached 1520.4%, indicating potential liquidity issues [11]. Business Model and Market Position - The company relies heavily on marketing-driven performance, necessitating a deeper analysis of the underlying factors [11]. - Historical return on invested capital (ROIC) was 4.04%, indicating weak capital returns, with a median ROIC of 20.84% since its listing [11]. - Analysts project a net profit of 88 million yuan for 2025, with an expected earnings per share of 0.15 yuan [11].

| | | | 统计截止日 区间股价涨跌幅 股东户数 增减 增减比例 户均持股市值 (元) 户均持股数（股) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-06-30 | 11.17% | 31323 3474 | | 12.47% | 15.03万 | 1.93万 | | 2025-03-31 | -5.11% | 27849 -1385 | | -4.74% | 15.30万 | 2.17万 | | 2024-12-31 | -3.63% | 29234 | 21 | 0.42% | 15.36万 | 2.06万 | | 2024-09-30 | 12.54% | 29113 | ele | 2.16% | 16.00万 | 2.07万 | 证券之星消息，近日长久物流披露，截至2025年6月30日公司股东户数为3.13万户，较3月31日增加 3474.0户，增幅为12.47%。户均持股数量由上期的2.17万股减少至1.93万股，户均持股市值为15.03万 元。 在物流行业个股中，长久物流股东户数低于行业平均水平，截至6月30日，物流行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to mitigate foreign exchange risks associated with its international business operations by engaging in financial derivative transactions with reputable domestic financial institutions [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Derivative Products Overview - The primary purpose of the transactions is to hedge against foreign exchange risks due to increasing foreign currency settlement volumes as the company expands its international business [1]. - The company plans to conduct transactions including but not limited to forward foreign exchange contracts, foreign exchange swaps, foreign exchange options, interest rate swaps, and currency swaps [2][3]. Transaction Amount - The authorized transaction amount for financial derivative transactions is capped at RMB 300 million (including equivalent foreign currency amounts) [2]. - The maximum expected margin and premium for these transactions will not exceed RMB 35 million (including equivalent foreign currency amounts) [2]. Funding Source - The funds for the financial derivative transactions will come from the company's own resources and will not involve raised funds [2]. Transaction Duration - The validity of the transactions will last for a maximum of 12 months from the date of approval by the company's board of directors [3]. Review Procedures - The proposal for engaging in financial derivative transactions was approved by the company's board of directors and does not require shareholder meeting approval [3]. Impact on the Company - Engaging in financial derivative transactions is intended to enhance the company's ability to manage foreign exchange risk without affecting normal business operations or cash flow [4]. - The company will adhere to relevant accounting standards for the recognition and measurement of financial instruments related to these transactions [4].

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 2.326 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.54% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased to 10.17 million yuan, a decline of 80.66% year-on-year [1] - The non-recurring net profit was 9.16 million yuan, down 82.79% compared to the previous year [1] - The basic earnings per share stood at 0.02 yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - Changjiu Logistics announced the approval of a proposal to engage in financial derivative trading during the 13th meeting of its fifth board of directors [2] Summary by Category - **Company Announcement** - The company held its fifth board of directors' 13th meeting on August 26, where it approved the proposal for financial derivative trading [2]

证券日报网讯 8月26日晚间，长久物流发布公告称，公司第五届监事会第八次会议审议通过了《关于开 展金融衍生产品交易的议案》等。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Core Viewpoint - The company Long-term Logistics (stock code: 603569) announced on August 27, 2025, its plan to engage in financial derivative transactions with reputable domestic commercial banks to mitigate foreign exchange market risks and reduce the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on its profits [1]. Transaction Details - The authorized period for the proposed financial derivative transactions is up to 12 months from the board's approval date, with a maximum transaction amount not exceeding RMB 300 million (including equivalent foreign currency amounts) at any point within the authorized limit [2]. - The maximum margin and premium to be utilized for these transactions will not exceed RMB 35 million (including equivalent foreign currency amounts), and the funds can be recycled within the authorized period [2]. - The types of transactions include but are not limited to forward foreign exchange contracts, foreign exchange swaps, foreign exchange options, interest rate swaps, interest rate options, currency swaps, and combinations thereof, involving major settlement currencies such as USD, EUR, and PLN [2]. Review Situation - This matter was approved at the 13th meeting of the fifth board of directors held on August 26, 2025, and does not require submission to the shareholders' meeting as it falls within the board's approval authority [3]. - The company had previously approved a similar proposal on August 23, 2024, which was successfully executed without exceeding the authorized limit, necessitating a new application due to the expiration of the 12-month authorization period [3]. Risk and Control - The company acknowledges the market, performance, liquidity, and operational risks associated with financial derivative transactions and has implemented several measures to control these risks [4]. - These measures include selecting simple and controllable products aimed at hedging, adhering to the authorized limit, and establishing clear responsibilities and approval processes [4]. - The finance department is responsible for implementation and monitoring, while the audit department oversees compliance, with independent directors and the supervisory board having the authority to conduct inspections [4]. Impact on the Company - The purpose of engaging in these transactions is to hedge against the risks posed by foreign exchange market fluctuations, thereby enhancing the company's ability to manage exchange rate risks without engaging in speculative or arbitrage activities [5]. - The company assures that this will not affect its daily cash flow or core business operations, and it will account for the transactions according to relevant accounting standards and disclose pertinent information in a timely manner [5].

Core Insights - Longjiu Logistics reported a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, with a decrease of over 80% year-on-year [1] - The company achieved a revenue of approximately 2.326 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.54% [1] Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 was approximately 10.17 million yuan, down 80.66% compared to the previous year [1] - The operating revenue for the same period was around 2.326 billion yuan, showing an increase of 27.54% year-on-year [1] Market Reaction - On August 26, the stock price of Longjiu Logistics increased by 6.91%, closing at 8.82 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 5.323 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Changjiu Logistics experienced a significant increase in revenue but a substantial decline in net profit during the first half of 2025 [1][2] - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 2.326 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.54% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.1688 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 80.66% [1] Group 2 - The basic earnings per share for the first half of 2025 was 0.02 yuan, with a weighted average return on equity of 0.34% [2] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is approximately 77.55 times, with a price-to-book ratio of about 1.79 times and a price-to-sales ratio of around 1.20 times [2] - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 8.32%, down 3.87 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 0.94%, a decrease of 2.74 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] Group 3 - In the second quarter of 2025, the gross profit margin was 6.93%, down 5.68 percentage points year-on-year and 2.78 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - The net profit margin for the second quarter was 0.78%, a decline of 4.02 percentage points year-on-year and 0.32 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company's operating expenses for the first half of 2025 amounted to 195 million yuan, an increase of 3.2762 million yuan year-on-year, with an expense ratio of 8.37%, down 2.13 percentage points from the previous year [2] Group 4 - The company is primarily engaged in full truckload transportation logistics services, with its main business revenue composition being 55.98% from full truckload services, 35.76% from international business, 3.72% from truckload supporting services, 3.31% from new energy business, and 0.71% from other businesses [3] - Changjiu Logistics is classified under the transportation and logistics industry, specifically in road freight [3] - The company was established on September 10, 2003, and went public on August 10, 2016 [3]