通讯员 张蕊 刘玉超 刘旭 钟亦宁 随着经济全球化进程深化与我国对外开放水平持续提升,国内外市场主体的跨境贸易、投资及金融活动 日益频繁,对专业化、高效化、便利化的外汇金融服务需求显著增长。广发银行济宁分行深入贯彻中央 经济工作会议要求,持续优化金融供给,推广便利化政策,创新线上化服务模式,致力于为涉外企业提供一站 式、定制化的外汇综合解决方案,助力外贸企业扬帆远航。 访企问需,畅通银企沟通 为深入践行金融服务实体经济的理念,纾解企业困难,保障企业全面健康发展,广发银行济宁分行持续开展 访企问需活动,深入走访企业,主动上门送政策,向企业宣传便利化政策措施,重点围绕跨境结算、跨境融 资、供应链生产、企业融资需求等方面,切实了解企业需求和困难。针对企业普遍关心的汇率波动风险 问题,着重介绍了远期结售汇、外汇期权等套期保值工具的运用,帮助企业树立"汇率风险中性"理念,引导 企业通过合理运用金融工具锁定汇率风险,保障企业的经营利润。走访过程中,针对企业提出的具体需求, 广发银行济宁分行提供"一对一"金融服务方案,靶向精准解决企业需求和困难。例如,走访中了解到一户 企业有低成本融资需求,广发银行济宁分行为企业定制了跨境 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The probability of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate returning to the "6 era" within the year is still low, but it has increased compared to the previous expectation. The operating range is likely to be between 6.90 - 7.25, with the core fluctuation range more concentrated between 7.00 - 7.20. The overall appreciation space is relatively limited, but the depreciation momentum is accumulating [1]. - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate in Q4 2025 may have potential conditions for upward - fluctuating, but the actual increase depends on the central bank's policy attitude and regulatory signals, as well as the verification of the Chinese economy [2][19]. - The potential capital inflow can provide phased support for the RMB, but its sustainability and actual impact scale should not be linearly extrapolated. The Q4 2025 operating environment of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate will probably be in the cycle combination of "loose money and weak broad credit", which provides a core operating basis for "slowing down the appreciation rhythm" [3]. - The US dollar index is expected to be volatile and weak, with an operating range of 95 - 102 [6]. - The potential "US dollar settlement wave" has increased the probability of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate falling to the "6 era" within the year, although its formation is still restricted by multiple factors [7][90]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - **Strategy Suggestions** - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Given the expected increase in the volatility of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate in Q4 compared to Q3 but still in a historically low range, a short straddle option strategy can be adopted, selling both out - of - the - money call and put options [1]. - **Hedging Strategy** - **For Purchasing Foreign Exchange**: Prioritize forward exchange locking. Start at the low - middle level (7.00 - 7.10) of the core exchange rate range, and lock 60% - 80% of the positions in batches. If the exchange rate briefly falls to 6.90 - 7.00, an additional 20% - 30% can be locked. For those with non - fixed payment cycles, a combination of "forward exchange locking + optional transaction" can be used [1]. - **For Settling Foreign Exchange**: Anchor at the upper limit of the range. When the exchange rate reaches 7.18 - 7.20, settle 30% - 40% of the US dollars. If it breaks through 7.20, an additional 20% - 30% can be settled [1]. 3.2 Market Conditions and Core Concerns 3.2.1 Market Volatility Conditions - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate maintained a low - volatility operation in Q3 2025. Whether it can increase volatility in Q4 depends on factors such as macro - narrative changes, market trading volume, and the central bank's policy [10][19]. - **Macro - Narrative Perspective**: The shift from low - to high - volatility of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is related to major macro - narrative changes, following a cycle of "narrative turning - divergence intensifying - volatility rising - cognition converging - volatility converging - new narrative starting". The next potential macro - narrative that may drive volatility is the "Fed's monetary policy shift (substantial and high - rhythm interest rate cuts)" [20]. - **Market Driving Force Perspective**: The inquiry trading volume of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is positively correlated with its implied volatility. An increase in trading volume may indicate an increase in volatility. Currently, the three indicators (offshore - onshore spread, risk - reversal option, and RMB non - deliverable forward) show relatively stable market expectations for the RMB's appreciation and depreciation. If the trading volume remains above $35 billion, the market may accumulate upward volatility momentum [22][31]. - **Central Bank's Policy Perspective**: The central bank's exchange - rate management in Q4 focuses on the "dynamic balance between enhancing flexibility and preventing risks". It will adopt a "discretionary" approach, adjusting policy tools according to market dynamics. The RMB exchange rate is difficult to form a smooth appreciation or depreciation trend [34][38]. 3.2.2 Stock - Exchange Linkage - The stock market and the foreign - exchange market are related through capital flow and market expectation. The recent "residential deposit migration" to the stock market has provided incremental funds for the A - share market, which is driven by the decline in bank deposit interest rates and the increase in the attractiveness of equity assets [43][49]. - However, the "residential deposit/ total market value" chart has three core flaws and cannot be used as direct evidence of "residential deposit migration". The potential capital inflow can provide phased support for the RMB, but its sustainability and scale depend on the long - term investment attractiveness of the stock market and the domestic economic fundamentals [53][55]. - The Q4 2025 operating environment of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is likely to be in the cycle of "loose money supply and weak credit expansion", with the appreciation rhythm slowing down. The probability of the RMB forming a trend - based appreciation against the US dollar within the year is still low, but the probability of the RMB exchange rate returning to the "6 era" has increased [63][64]. 3.2.3 External Weak US Dollar Environment - The Fed's interest - rate cut amplitude and rhythm depend on the evolution path of the US economic fundamentals. The September 2025 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut and the weak non - farm employment data have made the issue of "whether the US economy is facing a recession" a key concern [66]. - **Economic Level**: The current US employment market has slowed down but not stalled. Inflation pressure and real - estate market risks restrict the Fed from implementing substantial interest - rate cuts within the year [71][72]. - **Policy Level**: Politically, the short - term policy is likely to remain on the "gradual adjustment" track. If the Fed's independence is interfered with, it may lead to more and larger - scale interest - rate cuts. Overall, the US dollar index is expected to operate in the range of 95 - 102 [73][76]. 3.2.4 US Dollar Settlement Wave - The formation of the US dollar settlement wave has a solid capital foundation, but it also depends on the effective cooperation of enterprise settlement willingness. The factors affecting the RMB exchange rate returning to the "6 era" include the central bank's exchange - rate intermediate - price control, the attractiveness of the domestic equity market, the trend of the US dollar index, and the behavior of enterprises in foreign - exchange transactions [7][85]. 3.3 Q4 Exchange - Rate Trend Judgment - **Benchmark Scenario**: In the context of the Fed's cautious interest - rate cut and the weak recovery of the domestic economy, the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7.00 - 7.20, with the depreciation momentum gradually accumulating. There are uncertainties in the domestic economic recovery process and the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm [91]. - **Upward Risk**: Factors such as the unexpected rebound of US inflation, strong US economic data, a change in global risk preference, and uncertainties in the domestic economic recovery may cause the RMB to face short - term depreciation pressure and may briefly break through the 7.20 mark [91][92]. - **Downward Risk**: If the US inflation continues to fall, the domestic economic recovery exceeds expectations, and domestic policies are actively implemented, the RMB may appreciate, and the USD/CNY spot exchange rate may fall below 7.0 [92]. 3.4 Strategy Suggestions - **Arbitrage Strategy**: In a low - volatility environment, a short straddle option strategy can be adopted, selling both out - of - the - money call and put options. Attention can also be paid to volatility surface arbitrage opportunities, such as constructing a position of "selling near - month straddle combinations + buying far - month straddle combinations" when the near - month implied volatility is significantly higher than the far - month [94]. - **Hedging Strategy** - **For Purchasing Foreign Exchange**: Prioritize forward exchange locking. Start at the low - middle level (7.00 - 7.10) of the core exchange - rate range, and lock 60% - 80% of the positions in batches. For those with non - fixed payment cycles, a combination of "forward exchange locking + optional transaction" can be used [95]. - **For Settling Foreign Exchange**: Anchor at the upper limit of the range. When the exchange rate reaches 7.18 - 7.20, settle 30% - 40% of the US dollars. If it breaks through 7.20, an additional 20% - 30% can be settled, leaving 20% - 30% for subsequent fluctuations [96]. - **Common Risk Warnings** - Avoid excessive speculation and adhere to the "risk - neutral" principle, with the hedging scale matching the actual trade volume [97]. - Dynamically track policies and the market. Adjust hedging positions in time if the USD/CNY spot exchange rate breaks through 7.25 or falls below 7.0 [99]. - Select appropriate tools. Small and medium - sized enterprises should give priority to simple tools such as forwards and options, while large enterprises can combine futures and other tools to optimize strategies but need to be equipped with a professional foreign - exchange management team [99].

证券日报网讯 9月17日晚间，迈威生物发布公告称，为规避外汇市场波动带来的风险，公司及合并范围 内子公司拟使用自有资金开展任一时点总交易额度不超过5，000万美元（或等值其他货币）的外汇衍生 品交易业务，包括但不限于外汇远期、外汇掉期、外汇期权、结构性远期及其他外汇衍生品产品业务。 交易对手为经监管机构批准、具有外汇衍生品业务经营资质且经营稳健、资信良好的境内大型银行等金 融机构。上述交易额度的使用期限自公司董事会审议通过之日起12个月内有效，在授权交易额度范围和 有效期内，上述额度可循环滚动使用。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Global Foreign Exchange (FX) Market** and the trading activities related to various currency pairs, particularly focusing on options trading. Core Insights and Arguments - **Trading Volume Analysis**: - The total volume of calls and puts traded over the past 24 hours and one week is detailed, with significant activity noted in major currency pairs such as **EUR/USD**, **USD/JPY**, and **GBP/USD**. For instance, the **EUR/USD** pair had a total volume of **$71.781 billion** over the past week, indicating robust trading activity [2][12]. - **Notable Trades**: - The top trades in the past 24 hours for the **EUR/USD** pair include multiple call options with strikes around **1.1861** and **1.214**, with notional values of **$330 million** and **$330 million** respectively, indicating strong bullish sentiment [7][12]. - **Market Sentiment**: - The **Z-scores** for trading volumes are provided, indicating the relative strength of trading activity. For example, the **EUR/USD** pair shows a high volume of calls compared to puts, suggesting a bullish outlook among traders [2][8]. - **Risk Reversals**: - The report includes data on **25D risk reversals**, indicating market sentiment towards potential price movements in the **USD/JPY** pair, with levels showing a slight bearish bias [15]. Additional Important Content - **Expiry Information**: - Notable expiries for options are highlighted, with significant notional values associated with upcoming expiries in the **EUR/USD** and **GBP/USD** pairs, which could impact market dynamics [12][18]. - **Strike Price Analysis**: - The report provides a detailed breakdown of the volume of puts and calls across various strike price ranges for the **USD/JPY** pair, indicating where traders are positioning themselves for future movements [13][16]. - **Market Trends**: - The analysis includes trends in call volume as a percentage of total volume, suggesting a shift in trader sentiment over the past months, with a noted increase in bullish positions [14]. - **Analyst Certification and Disclosures**: - The report includes a note on analyst certification and important disclosures, emphasizing the credibility of the data presented [4]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on trading volumes, market sentiment, notable trades, and expiry information within the global FX market.

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Canray Technology Co., Ltd. plans to engage in foreign exchange derivative trading to mitigate foreign exchange market risks and enhance financial stability [1][5]. Trading Details - The company and its subsidiaries intend to use their own funds for foreign exchange derivative transactions with a maximum trading limit of 100 million RMB (or equivalent in other currencies) [2]. - The trading limit is valid for 12 months from the board's approval date on September 12, 2025, with a maximum contract value of 100 million RMB at any point during this period [2]. - The types of derivatives include foreign exchange forwards, options, swaps, and currency swaps, which are characterized by transparency, liquidity, and known risks [2]. Review Procedure - The board of directors approved the proposal for foreign exchange derivative trading, with the supervisory board agreeing that it effectively mitigates foreign exchange risks and does not harm the interests of the company or its shareholders [3]. - The matter falls within the board's approval authority and does not require a shareholders' meeting [3]. Risk Analysis and Control Measures - The company adheres to principles of legality, prudence, safety, and effectiveness in its derivative trading, avoiding speculative and purely arbitrage transactions [4]. - A management system for foreign exchange derivative trading has been established to outline operational principles and approval authorities [4]. Impact on the Company - Engaging in foreign exchange derivative trading is expected to enhance the company's ability to manage foreign exchange volatility risks and protect shareholder interests [5]. - The company will account for this business in accordance with relevant accounting standards [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the offshore RMB against the USD has become a focal point in the market, with significant increases observed since August, indicating strong market performance [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since August, the offshore RMB has appreciated significantly against the USD, with an increase of nearly 1000 basis points and approximately 3000 basis points compared to the low in early April [1]. - Hedge funds are actively increasing their bets on the continued appreciation of the RMB, with expectations that the exchange rate may reach 7 or higher by year-end [1][3]. - The demand for options that profit from RMB appreciation is on the rise, reflecting a shift in hedge fund strategies [3]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Multiple factors are contributing to the RMB's appreciation, including enhanced market confidence in the Chinese economy due to supportive policy signals and changes in U.S. interest rate expectations [3]. - The trading volume of foreign exchange options in the onshore market surged to $227.8 billion in July, the highest level since 2015, indicating a strategic shift among exporters [3]. - Analysts from Huatai Securities and CICC highlight that the recent appreciation is influenced by the adjustment of the daily USD/CNY midpoint and increased global interest in Chinese equity assets [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - There is a divergence of opinions regarding whether the RMB will break below the 7 mark, with the strengthening of the Chinese stock market often correlating with RMB appreciation [4]. - The current market environment reflects not only the resilience of the Chinese economy but also global investor confidence in the Chinese market [4].

Core Viewpoint - Suzhou Mingzhi Technology Co., Ltd. has announced the initiation of foreign exchange derivative trading to mitigate foreign exchange market risks and enhance financial stability [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons and Objectives - The company aims to effectively hedge against foreign exchange market risks due to its export business, preventing adverse impacts from significant exchange rate fluctuations on its performance [2]. - The initiative is expected to improve the efficiency of foreign exchange fund utilization and reduce financial costs [2]. Group 2: Types of Transactions - The foreign exchange derivative trading will include products closely related to the company's core business, such as foreign exchange forwards, swaps, options, structured forwards, interest rate swaps, interest rate options, and currency swaps [3]. Group 3: Transaction Limits, Duration, and Authorization - The total amount for foreign exchange derivative trading is capped at $20 million, which can be rolled over within 12 months from the date of board approval [4]. - The board has authorized the chairman or designated personnel to make decisions and sign relevant documents within the approved limit [4]. Group 4: Risk Analysis and Control Measures - The company has identified risks such as exchange rate fluctuations, liquidity risks, and counterparty risks, with measures in place to mitigate these risks [4]. - A management system for foreign exchange derivative trading has been established to ensure compliance and risk control [4]. Group 5: Accounting Policies and Principles - The company will follow relevant accounting standards for the recognition and measurement of financial instruments, ensuring accurate reflection in financial statements [5]. Group 6: Supervisory Board Opinion - The supervisory board supports the foreign exchange derivative trading initiative, stating it effectively mitigates foreign exchange market risks and enhances fund utilization efficiency [6]. - The approval process complies with legal regulations and the company's articles of association, ensuring no harm to the company or shareholders [6].

Core Points - The article outlines the foreign exchange hedging management system of Jiangsu Zhenjiang New Energy Equipment Co., Ltd, aimed at regulating hedging activities and mitigating risks associated with foreign exchange rate fluctuations [2][3][4] Summary by Sections General Principles - The system is applicable to the company and its subsidiaries, ensuring compliance with relevant laws and regulations while safeguarding company assets [2] - Foreign exchange hedging activities must be based on actual business needs and should not be conducted for speculative purposes [2][3] Operational Principles - The company is required to establish its own trading accounts for hedging and can only transact with qualified financial institutions approved by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and the People's Bank of China [3] - Hedging transactions must align with the company's foreign currency receivables and payables forecasts, ensuring that the amounts do not exceed these forecasts [3][4] Approval Authority - The board of directors or shareholders' meeting determines the hedging limits, with specific approval processes based on the transaction amounts relative to the company's audited net assets [4][5] Internal Procedures - The finance department is responsible for feasibility analysis, planning, and execution of hedging transactions, while the audit department oversees compliance and performance [6][7] - Regular reporting and monitoring of hedging activities are mandated to ensure transparency and risk management [7][8] Confidentiality - All personnel involved in hedging activities must adhere to confidentiality obligations regarding the company's hedging strategies and financial information [13] Risk Reporting and Management - Significant market fluctuations or risks that could impact the company's financial performance must be reported immediately to management and the board [15][16] - The finance department is tasked with monitoring market conditions and making timely decisions to minimize potential losses [16] Information Disclosure - The company is required to disclose information regarding its hedging activities in accordance with regulations set by the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Shanghai Stock Exchange [18][19]

Business Background - The company, Great Wall Motor Co., Ltd., is expanding its overseas operations, leading to increased foreign exchange income and expenditure, which has resulted in a growing foreign exchange risk exposure due to mismatches in currency and timing [1] - To mitigate the adverse effects of significant exchange rate fluctuations and reduce financial costs, the company plans to engage in foreign exchange hedging through derivatives based on specific business needs [1] Types of Transactions - The foreign exchange derivative transactions include but are not limited to forward foreign exchange contracts, foreign exchange swaps, currency swaps, foreign exchange options, interest rate swaps, interest rate options, and their combinations [1] Transaction Amounts and Limits - The maximum contract value held at any point during the period from board approval until the 2025 annual board meeting will not exceed RMB 20 billion or its equivalent in other currencies [2] - The estimated transaction margin and premiums will not exceed RMB 3.5 billion or its equivalent in other currencies during the same period [2] Duration and Funding Sources - The duration of the transactions will generally not exceed three years and will match the underlying transaction period [2] - The funding for these foreign exchange derivative transactions will primarily come from the company's own funds [2] Counterparties and Liquidity Arrangements - Transactions will be conducted with domestic and international financial institutions that have the qualifications and good credit for foreign exchange derivative trading [2] - The business amounts and durations will generally align with the expected income and expenditure plans to ensure liquidity [2] Risk Analysis - Market risk arises from differences between contract rates and actual rates at maturity, which can lead to trading gains or losses [3] - Liquidity risk may occur if foreign exchange derivatives are not appropriately arranged, potentially impacting the company's cash flow [3] - Performance risk is minimized by selecting counterparties with good credit and established long-term business relationships [3] Risk Control Measures - The company will only engage in simple foreign exchange derivatives closely related to its core business, adhering to prudent and safe risk management principles [4] - A strict management system for foreign exchange derivative trading has been established, detailing operational principles, approval authority, and risk management procedures [4] - Regular audits of derivative trading activities will be conducted by the internal audit department to ensure compliance and risk management [4] Feasibility Conclusion - The company aims to enhance financial stability by addressing exchange rate and interest rate risks through foreign exchange derivative transactions based on actual business needs [5]

Group 1 - The company aims to conduct foreign exchange derivative business, including forward foreign exchange settlement and sales, to mitigate the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on its operating performance [1][2] - The total amount for the foreign exchange derivative transactions planned for 2025 is not to exceed the equivalent of 500 million RMB or other equivalent foreign currencies [2][3] - The funding for these transactions will primarily come from the company's own funds and will not involve the use of raised funds [2][3] Group 2 - The effective period for the foreign exchange derivative business is twelve months from the approval date by the board of directors, with the ability to roll over the transaction limits within this period [3] - The company has established a comprehensive internal control system and risk response measures to effectively manage the risks associated with foreign exchange derivative transactions [4][5] - The company will account for and disclose the foreign exchange derivative business in accordance with relevant accounting standards [4] Group 3 - The company has received approval from its board of directors for the foreign exchange derivative business, which does not involve related party transactions and does not require shareholder approval [4] - The sponsor institution has no objections to the company's plan to conduct foreign exchange derivative transactions, affirming that it aligns with legal regulations and the company's operational needs [5]