张林锋先生将与公司 2026 年第一次临时股东会选举产生的8名董事共同组成公司第七届董事会，任期自 职工代表大会选举之日起至公司第七届董事会任期届满之日止。 格隆汇1月16日丨新澳股份(603889.SH)公布，公司于2026年1月16日召开职工代表大会，选举张林锋先 生为公司第七届董事会职工代表董事。 ...

2026年01月16日 证券研究报告 | 2 户外新消费研究系列： 2025年景气度回顾与产业前沿洞察 行业研究 · 行业专题 纺织服饰 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师：丁诗洁 证券分析师：刘佳琪 0755-81981391 010-88005446 dingshijie@guosen.com.cn liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn S0980520040004 S0980523070003 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 报告摘要： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 l ISPO Beijing 2026展会亮点。1）展会品类结构变化：滑雪品牌及相关产品增加，而露营品牌数量减少，与户外展区合并为攀登徒步露营区 域。2）伯希和加码专业产品和营销，鞋类产品增加：伯希和发布会以"从世界之巅到全球赛场"为主题，发布对登山运动员、运动队的赞助 支持，以及与国际体育组织、赛事体系的合作，参展产品集中展示了专业登山、滑雪及冬奥会定制装备，此外鞋子产品有单独货架展出。3） 羊毛参展商和产品增加：羊毛材质在户外服饰中的渗透率提升趋势明显，本次展会羊毛相关面料和产品较之前都有所增加 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongfang Securities indicates that New Australia Co. is expected to release profit elasticity in 2026 due to rising wool prices, driven by tight supply and expanding demand [1] Group 1: Wool Price Trends - Australian wool prices have been continuously rising since December of last year, with the new fiscal year expected to further strengthen this upward trend due to supply constraints and increased demand [1] - The wool price in 2025 exhibited volatility, characterized by a "low start and high finish," with a clear upward trend from December onwards [1] Group 2: Company Performance and Outlook - As a leading player in the fine wool spinning sector, New Australia Co. has maintained operational resilience amid industry pressures in 2025 [1] - The company is anticipated to release profit elasticity in 2026 due to rising raw material prices, with an expected improvement in profitability from its cashmere business, which may become a new growth driver in the medium term [1] Group 3: Valuation and Rating - Based on comparable companies, a 17x PE valuation is projected for 2025, corresponding to a target price of 10.54 yuan, with a maintained "buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to release profit elasticity in 2026 due to rising wool prices, with a resilient performance in 2025 despite industry pressures [4][8] - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast slightly, projecting earnings per share (EPS) of 0.62, 0.77, and 0.86 yuan for 2025-2027, respectively, with a target price of 10.54 yuan based on a 17x PE valuation for 2025 [5][9] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 4,438 million yuan in 2023 to 6,050 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.4% [6] - Operating profit is expected to increase from 484 million yuan in 2023 to 755 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 11.1% [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 404 million yuan in 2023 to 624 million yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of 11.2% [6] - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 18.6% in 2023 to 21.0% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [6] Market Performance Summary - The company's stock price as of January 13, 2026, is 8.9 yuan, with a target price of 10.54 yuan, suggesting a potential upside [1] - The stock has shown strong absolute performance over various time frames, including a 45.76% increase over the past year [1]

Market Review - In December, the A-share textile and apparel sector underperformed the broader market, with textile manufacturing outperforming branded apparel. Since January, the sector has shown stronger performance, with textile manufacturing up by 5.1% and branded apparel up by 4.5% [1][15] - Key companies that have led in stock price increases since January include Under Armour (12.5%), New Australia (11.9%), and Geely (11.0%) [1] Brand Apparel Insights - Retail sales of clothing in November grew by 3.5% year-on-year, but the growth rate slowed down, decreasing by 2.8 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] - E-commerce growth in December declined, indicating weak overall apparel consumption demand, primarily due to early release of consumer demand during the "Double 11" shopping festival, rising temperatures, and the delayed Spring Festival peak season [2] - Outdoor apparel categories showed strong growth, with sportswear and outdoor apparel growing by 6% and 10% respectively, while home textiles and personal care categories saw declines [2] - Notable brands with strong growth in the sportswear category include Lululemon (10%) and Descente (6%) [2] Textile Manufacturing Insights - In December, Vietnam's textile exports increased by 8.4% year-on-year, while footwear exports rose by 4.3%, marking a positive turnaround in growth rates [3] - The prices of cotton showed slight increases and decreases, with domestic cotton prices rising by 4.2% and international prices falling by 1.0% in December [3] - Wool prices continued to rise, with a month-on-month increase of 4.4% and a year-on-year increase of 39.9% [3] - Companies in Taiwan showed significant revenue differentiation in December, with overall strong performance driven by World Cup demand, leading to increased order visibility and production capacity expansion [3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on brands with favorable market conditions and recovering upstream orders. The report is optimistic about the recovery of high-end consumption and the growth of the light luxury sports and outdoor segments [5][8] - Recommended brands include Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Xtep International, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing trends in high-end and outdoor apparel [5][8] - In textile manufacturing, companies like Shenzhou International and Weixing Co. are highlighted for their potential benefits from tariff reductions and Nike's recovery [9]

Group 1: Macro and Strategy - The report highlights the importance of constructing negative duration funds using government bond futures to navigate market cycles [3][8] - Public funds have established a stable presence in the government bond futures market, with a significant number of funds holding short positions [8][9] - The report suggests that the current market for negative duration funds is limited, with most funds using futures primarily for hedging rather than seeking additional returns [10] Group 2: Industry and Company Insights - The medical and biological sector is experiencing strong performance, particularly in areas like brain-computer interfaces and AI healthcare, with significant investment opportunities identified [20][21] - The consumer-grade 3D printing industry is entering a period of widespread adoption, driven by technological advancements and increasing demand for personalized products, with a projected market size exceeding $4 billion by 2024 [22][23] - The food and beverage sector is preparing for the Spring Festival, with various companies expected to benefit from favorable market conditions, particularly in the dairy and beverage segments [27][28] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the 3D printing sector that demonstrate technological advantages and strong market positions [24][25] - In the food and beverage industry, companies like Moutai and Yili are highlighted for their growth potential amid favorable market conditions [27][28] - The service sector is expected to benefit from ongoing government policies aimed at boosting consumer spending, with companies like Ctrip and Huazhu Group recommended for investment [30][33]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 10.60 RMB, based on a projected PE of 13 times for 2026 [5]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the wool and cashmere yarn industry in China, with production advantages that support market share growth. Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 3.894 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.60%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 377 million RMB, up 1.98% year-on-year [2][14]. - The company is expected to benefit from a "Davis Double Play" as wool prices rise, driven by supply constraints and low inventory levels. The price of Australian 19-micron fine wool was 1,096 cents per kilogram in September 2025, reflecting a 20% year-on-year increase [3][25]. - The company has implemented a wide-band strategy since 2021, which has helped maintain a good capacity utilization rate and is expected to enhance profit margins compared to previous cycles [4][20]. Company Overview - The company focuses on the research, production, and sales of fine wool yarn and wool tops, establishing an integrated spinning industry chain. In 2024, it achieved a revenue of 4.841 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 9.07%, and a net profit of 428 million RMB, up 5.96% year-on-year [14][15]. - The company has expanded its production capacity significantly, with a current capacity of approximately 194,000 spindles, including over 32,000 tons of cashmere yarn [2][23]. Production Capacity and Expansion Plans - The company has diversified its production capacity across regions, including Zhejiang, Ningxia, and Vietnam, with ongoing projects to enhance production capabilities. The first phase of a 50,000 spindle high-end fine wool project in Vietnam is expected to be fully operational by June 2025 [22][24]. - Future expansion plans include further capacity increases in Vietnam and Ningxia, aligning with the global trend towards high-end and functional products [22][24]. Profitability Outlook - The rising wool prices are anticipated to drive profit elasticity for the company, with stable growth in both costs and product prices expected to be around 50%-60% during the wool price upcycle [4][41]. - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio of over 50% in recent years, with a current dividend yield exceeding 4% [4][5]. Market Trends - The report highlights a significant supply shortage in the wool market, with Australian wool production declining to historical lows. This supply contraction is expected to support higher wool prices in the coming years [25][27]. - Demand for wool is projected to recover, particularly in the sportswear segment, which is expected to further bolster wool prices as inventory levels remain low [33][35].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the continuous increase in wool prices since Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11.5% in Q3 and a cumulative quarterly increase of 22.6% [2] - The demand for wool and cashmere materials in outdoor sports apparel is expected to grow, with a significant increase in sales and market penetration [3][4] - The company is positioned to benefit from the growth in the outdoor sports segment, with approximately 30% of its wool and cashmere products allocated to this category, significantly higher than the industry average [3][12] - The gross margin is anticipated to improve due to rising wool prices and a recovery in orders since September 2025, leading to a favorable "high price, low cost" scenario [3][15] - The report projects an increase in net profit for the company, estimating RMB 460 million, RMB 600 million, and RMB 650 million for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 7.1%, 31.4%, and 8.2% respectively [21][22] Summary by Relevant Sections Wool Price Trends - Wool prices have shown a consistent upward trend, with Q4 2025 prices expected to rise by 30.6% year-on-year and a quarterly increase of 6.2% [2][15] - The report notes fluctuations in prices, with a decrease in early October followed by a recovery later in the month [2] Market Potential - The penetration of wool and cashmere materials in outdoor sports apparel has increased, with sales growth exceeding 30% year-on-year in most quarters since Q4 2021 [3][4] - The market share of wool and cashmere products in outdoor sports apparel has risen from 0.34% in Q4 2021 to 1.04% in Q4 2025, indicating significant growth potential [3][4] Company Positioning - The company has a first-mover advantage in the outdoor sports segment, with a higher proportion of its wool and cashmere products dedicated to this market compared to industry averages [3][12] - The report emphasizes the company's ability to capture growth opportunities in the expanding outdoor sports apparel market [3][12] Financial Projections - The report revises the profit forecast for 2026-2027, with net profits expected to reach RMB 460 million, RMB 600 million, and RMB 650 million, reflecting a positive outlook based on rising wool prices and expanding demand [21][22] - The target price for the company's stock has been adjusted to RMB 9.9-10.7, corresponding to a PE ratio of 12-13x for 2026 [21]

国泰安康定期支付混合A（000367）成立日期2014年4月30日，最新规模1.7亿。今年以来收益0.64%， 同类排名7865/9012；近一年收益4.77%，同类排名7350/8157；成立以来收益104.3%。 国泰安康定期支付混合A（000367）基金经理为茅利伟。 1月12日，新澳股份涨5.01%，截至发稿，报8.60元/股，成交7163.20万元，换手率1.19%，总市值62.80 亿元。 资料显示，浙江新澳纺织股份有限公司位于浙江省桐乡市崇福镇观庄桥，成立日期1995年9月8日，上市 日期2014年12月31日，公司主营业务涉及羊毛纱线及羊毛毛条、羊绒纱线的研发、生产和销售。主营业 务收入构成为：毛精纺纱线56.11%，羊绒30.77%，羊毛毛条11.87%，改性处理、染整及羊绒加工 0.78%，其他0.48%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，国泰基金旗下1只基金重仓新澳股份。国泰安康定期支付混合A（000367）三季度持有股数 20万股，占基金净值比例为0.66%，位居第五大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约8.2万元。 截至发稿，茅利伟累计任职时间2年214天，现任基金资产总规模41.75亿 ...

Summary of Xin'ao Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - Xin'ao Co., Ltd. is a leading global wool spinning enterprise with production capacity in worsted yarn and cashmere yarn, achieving steady revenue and profit growth through partnerships with international brands and a global marketing network [2][3] Core Insights and Arguments - Revenue growth is projected at approximately 10% from 2019 to 2024, while profit growth is expected to reach 24% [2][6] - The company has shifted from a sales-driven production model to a production-driven sales model, aiming for high operating rates, which has effectively reduced fixed costs and improved gross margins [2][16] - Despite challenges from tariffs and brand destocking cycles, Xin'ao's revenue and profit have remained stable in the first three quarters of 2026, benefiting from a manufacturing recovery trend in Q4 [2][7] - Xin'ao holds a significant position in the cashmere market, ranking second domestically, and has rapidly expanded its cashmere business through the integration of Ningxia Xin'ao Cashmere and the acquisition of UK-based Duncan [2][19] - The company is actively expanding its product range from knitted to woven categories, narrowing the gap with competitors, and has a 30% share of overseas revenue [2][12] Industry Context - China is the largest wool consumer and the leading exporter of fine cashmere, relying heavily on imports for wool [2][9] - The global wool market is experiencing a recovery phase, with expectations of sustained demand growth from 2026 to 2028 due to low inventory levels and a healthy market environment [5][20] - The cashmere industry is projected to grow significantly, with Xin'ao's cashmere business expected to see a compound annual growth rate exceeding 50% from 2020 to 2024 [2][19] Additional Important Points - Xin'ao has established offices in over 20 countries and actively participates in international sports goods expos to promote its products [4] - The company has a stable and experienced management team, which enhances decision-making efficiency [8] - Xin'ao's raw material reserves are at a historical high, with a 30% increase in wool prices since 2026, leading to increased domestic and overseas order demand [21] - The company’s strategic shift to a production-driven model has resulted in a significant reduction in unit costs, approximately 11,000 yuan per ton lower than in 2019, enhancing competitiveness [16] - The outdoor sports trend is driving demand for functional blended fabrics, providing new growth opportunities for the industry [12]