证券研究报告 AI驱动新成长，自主可控大时代 ——2026年半导体设备行业策略报告 行业评级：看好 2026年1月4日 | 分析师 | 邱世梁 | 王华君 | 王一帆 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | qiushiliang@stocke.com.cn | wanghuajun@stocke.com.cn | wangyifan01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230520050001 | S1230520080005 | S1230523120007 | 半导体设备：AI驱动新成长，自主可控大时代 ◼ 2025行业复盘：跑赢大盘，持续增长 2025年至今，半导体设备指数显著跑赢大盘，当前估值处于28%分位点。 2025年前道设备营收持续高增长，利润增速结构性放缓；后道设备迎来爆发式增长，净利率显著提升，行业呈现高景气态势。 ◼ 2026行业展望：半导体行业景气度高，先进逻辑存储扩产共振 半导体行业景气度高：AI驱动下，2025年全球半导体市场创历史新高，预计2026年将继续增长9%至7607亿美元。 中国半导体设备市场：国内晶圆厂产能利用率回升扩 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market shows strong performance in the Changxin Storage concept, with stocks like Jingce Electronics rising nearly 13%, Hefei Urban Construction hitting a 10% limit up, and Shenzhen Technology increasing by nearly 8% [1] - Changxin Technology, the first in China and the fourth globally in DRAM manufacturing, has submitted its IPO application to the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, aiming to raise 29.5 billion yuan [1] - The prospectus reveals that the company's profits are expected to exceed expectations by the fourth quarter of 2025 [1]

2025年最后一个交易日，长鑫科技IPO进展引爆市场关注，半导体产业链多股拉升。半导体设备ETF（561980）目前跌0.44%；Wind显示，该 ETF近期连续"吸金"，连续4个交易日（12月25日—30日）获资金净流入累计超1亿元。 成分股方面，芯源微、雅克科技开盘涨超4%，艾森股份、拓荆科技涨超3%，盛美上海、安集科技、中科飞测、北方华创等跟涨。 消息面上，上交所网站2025年12月30日披露，长鑫科技集团股份有限公司（下称"长鑫科技"）科创板IPO上市申请已经获得受理，将发行不 超过106.22亿新股，拟募集资金295亿元。21世纪经济报道指出，从募资规模来看，长鑫存储IPO有望成为科创板开板以来募资规模第二大的 IPO。 中信证券发布研报认为，国内最大的DRAM存储企业长鑫存储上市已受理，招股书披露公司2025年第四季度利润超预期，同时长鑫技术加速 迭代追赶全球先进水平，未来上市有望持续拉动扩产，设备国产化率有望逐步提升。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 来源：中证指数官网，截至2025.12.30 该指数重点布局中微公司、北方华创、寒武纪、中芯国际、海光信息、拓荆科技、南大光电等细分龙头，前十大集 ...

12月31日，芯源微盘中上涨3.45%，截至09:35，报149.99元/股，成交1.40亿元，换手率0.46%，总市值 302.42亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入2073.61万元，特大单买入2350.90万元，占比16.82%，卖出1013.24万 元，占比7.25%；大单买入4516.31万元，占比32.32%，卖出3780.36万元，占比27.05%。 截至9月30日，芯源微股东户数1.60万，较上期增加15.37%；人均流通股12633股，较上期减少13.17%。 2025年1月-9月，芯源微实现营业收入9.90亿元，同比减少10.35%；归母净利润-1004.92万元，同比减少 109.34%。 分红方面，芯源微A股上市后累计派现1.39亿元。近三年，累计派现8689.45万元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，芯源微十大流通股东中，诺安成长混合A（320007）位居第四大 流通股东，持股476.29万股，相比上期减少39.97万股。嘉实上证科创板芯片ETF（588200）位居第五大 流通股东，持股365.39万股，相比上期减少16.30万股。银华集成电路混合A（013840）位居第 ...

Group 1 - A total of 16 stocks received buy ratings from brokerages on December 30, with one stock announcing a target price [1] - Among the stocks with buy ratings, the highest target price indicates a potential increase of 15.3% for Chip Source Microelectronics [1] - In terms of rating adjustments, 9 stocks maintained their ratings while 7 stocks received ratings for the first time [1] Group 2 - The sectors with the highest number of stocks receiving buy ratings include semiconductors and semiconductor production equipment, automotive and automotive parts, and capital goods, each with 3 stocks [1]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 167.18 RMB based on a projected PS of 13 times for 2026 [4]. Core Insights - The company specializes in photoresist coating and developing equipment, with a strong presence in advanced packaging, compound semiconductors, and MEMS industries. It is actively expanding into front-end fields. The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2025 is under pressure due to delays in order acceptance, but a significant backlog of orders is expected to drive a return to high growth [2][3]. - The semiconductor equipment industry remains robust, with substantial domestic substitution opportunities for coating and developing equipment. In 2024, global semiconductor equipment sales reached 117.1 billion USD, with China accounting for 49.5 billion USD, reflecting a 35% year-over-year increase [2][3]. - The company has successfully broken the monopoly of foreign manufacturers in the domestic market for coating and developing equipment, launching multiple product models and securing orders from leading domestic clients [2][3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Domestic Leader in Coating and Developing Equipment - The company has over 20 years of experience in semiconductor equipment, focusing on the development, production, and sales of specialized equipment, including photoresist coating and developing machines. Its product range has expanded to cover various sectors, including front-end wafer processing and advanced packaging [14][16]. Section 2: Accelerating Domestic Substitution and Market Demand Recovery - The semiconductor market is experiencing rapid growth, driven by high demand for advanced technologies. The company's products are essential in the photolithography process, and the demand for photolithography machines is expected to boost the development of coating and developing equipment [33][34]. - The domestic semiconductor equipment market is growing significantly, with a notable increase in market share from 13% in 2015 to 42% in 2024. This growth is attributed to the rise of domestic wafer fabrication plants and the demand for domestic substitution of various semiconductor equipment [60][61]. Section 3: Product Platform Development and Competitive Advantage - The company is actively enriching its product lines, including physical/chemical cleaning, temporary bonding machines, and advanced packaging products, to create new growth opportunities. The acquisition by Northern Huachuang is expected to enhance the company's R&D capabilities and optimize supply chain management [3][67]. - The company has a strong focus on R&D, with a research expense ratio that exceeds industry averages, indicating a commitment to innovation and product development [75]. Section 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 0.5 million RMB, 2.3 million RMB, and 5.1 million RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively. The current PS valuations are 16, 11, and 8 times for the respective years, with a target PS of 13 times for 2026 [4].

芯源微围绕前道涂胶显影、前道单片清洗、后道先进封装三大主赛道。新一代架构涂胶显影机26 年可 在客户端看到整体表现；化学清洗瞄准超临界和高温硫酸两款高端机台实现卡位；高端封装设备聚焦热 压键合技术。 在控股股东北方华创的赋能下，公司有望实现业绩高速增长。 涂胶显影：公司目前系国内唯一可提供量产型前道涂胶显影机的厂商，产品涵盖offline、I-line、KrF、 ArF 浸没式等多种工艺类型。新一代超高产能涂胶显影机架构FT Alkaid 具有高产能、高稳定性、高可 靠性、高度集成化和智能化等多项核心优势，机台采用六层对称架构，中间布局高效的晶圆传输模组作 为连接枢纽，并设计高效冷盘塔连接模块，在调度上应用多层并行进片回片模式，可匹配未来更先进的 光刻机产能提升需求。该机型有望明年在客户端看到整体表现。 单片清洗：前道物理清洗设备已达到国际先进水平，成功实现国产替代。 前道化学清洗设备聚焦先进制程，持续推进高温硫酸、超临界等高端机台的验证及产业化，前三季度签 单同比数倍增长。芯源微已成为国内首个通过高温硫酸清洗工艺验证并获得重复订单的企业，超临界机 台已陆续向多家客户发出样机开展工艺验证。战略性新产品前道化学 ...

圣晖集成、创元科技均3连板，德明利、北京君正、芯源微、汇成股份、华虹公司等涨幅居前。 (本文来自第一财经) ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news highlights the strong performance of semiconductor-related stocks, driven by ByteDance's planned capital expenditure of 160 billion RMB (approximately 23 billion USD) for 2026, with half allocated for advanced semiconductor procurement to develop AI models and applications [1] - NVIDIA, SK Hynix, and Phison Electronics are collaborating to develop AI-specific solid-state drives (SSDs), which are expected to outperform current AI server SSDs by a factor of ten [1] - The liquid cooling market is projected to reach 21.8 billion USD by 2027, driven by increased efficiency and lower power usage effectiveness (PUE) in data centers, with Taiwanese manufacturers currently dominating the supply chain [1] Group 2 - The Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) report forecasts global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales to reach 133 billion USD in 2025, a 13.7% increase year-over-year, with further growth expected in 2026 and 2027 [2] - Domestic GPU companies are entering a capital expenditure acceleration phase, with companies like Muxi Technology and Moer Thread achieving significant milestones in GPU sales and technology breakthroughs [2] - The domestic supply chain for semiconductor upstream equipment and materials is expected to accelerate, providing opportunities for local suppliers as wafer fabrication plants expand [2] Group 3 - As of December 23, 2025, the semiconductor materials and equipment theme index rose by 1.79%, with the chip equipment ETF (560780) increasing by 1.70% [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the ETF account for 64.75% of the index, with notable increases in stocks such as Kema Technology and Aisen Co., Ltd. [3] - The chip equipment ETF has seen a significant growth of 1.01 billion RMB in the past three months, indicating strong investor interest [3]

Group 1 - Semiconductor equipment stocks have strengthened, with Anji Technology rising over 4%, and Beifang Huachuang and Xinyuan Micro both increasing over 3% [1] - Semiconductor-related ETFs have also seen gains, with an increase of over 2% [1] Group 2 - Specific ETF performance includes: - Semiconductor Materials ETF at 1.666, up 0.038 (2.33%) - Chip Equipment ETF at 1.744, up 0.038 (2.23%) - Semiconductor Equipment ETF E Fund at 1.854, up 0.039 (2.15%) - Semiconductor Equipment ETF Fund at 1.887, up 0.038 (2.06%) - Semiconductor Equipment ETF at 1.587, up 0.032 (2.06%) [2] Group 3 - Analysts indicate that under the backdrop of the AI wave and domestic production, there is a continuous demand for expansion in advanced production lines, making semiconductor equipment a cornerstone for wafer foundry expansion and an important link for achieving self-sufficiency in the industry chain [2]