行 业 及 产 业 公用事业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 傅浩玮 A0230522010001 fuhw@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 02 日 容量电价机制完善 天然气消费持续 增长 看好 —— 申万公用环保周报(26/1/24~26/1/30) 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行业点评 目录 | 1．电力： 完善容量电价机制 精准定价平稳收益 4 | | | --- | --- | | 2．燃气：全球气价高位震荡 天然气消费持续增长 5 | | | 3．一周行情回顾 | 10 | | 4．公司及行业动态 11 | | | 5．重点公司估值表 13 | | 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信 ...

证券代码：000539、200539 证券简称：粤电力 A、粤电力 B 广东电力发展股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2026001 | 投资者关系活动  | 特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 类别 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | | | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | | □现场参观 | | | | □其他 （请文字说明其他活动内容） | | | 时间 | 2026 年 1 月 30 日 | | | 地点 | 公司 楼会议室 35 | | | 参与单位名称及 | 国盛证券 高紫明、张卓然 | | | 人员姓名 | 嘉实基金 孙逸晨 | | | | 鹏华基金 司马朝阳 | | | | 太保资产 魏巍 | | | 上市公司接待人 | 副总经理、董事会秘书、财务负责人 刘维 | | | 员姓名 | 黄晓雯 董事会事务部 | | | | 经营部 申潇雨 | | | | 发展部 杨锦波 | | | | 郭映嘉、李蘅 新能源公司 | | | | 年公司主要经营情况？ 问题一：2025 | | | | 2025 年度，由于电力市场竞争加剧及相关政策调整，公 ...

欢迎分享给你的朋友！ 企查查网站显示，1月30日，国电投青粤（青海）能源开发有限责任公司成立， 法定代 表人为李洪川， 注册资本为 151亿 元， 国家电投、广东能源集团、青海省清洁能源产 业集团等单位共同持股。 | | 股东信息4 1 ● E 股权结构 | | | | | 四 导出 | © 企查查 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | | 股东名称 | 持股比例 ÷ | 认缴出资额(万元) ۾ | | 认缴出资日期 ; 首次持股日期 ; 关联产品/机构 | | | | | 青海黄河上游水电开发有限责任公司 国有企业 大股东 | 51.00% | BVIP | 2028-12-01 | 2026-01-30 | 黄河公司 | | 2 | 服 | 东省能源集团西北(甘肃)有限公司 国有企业 | 30.00% | BVIP | 2028-12-01 | 2026-01-30 | . | | ਤੇ | 提 能源 | 青海省清洁能源产业发展集团有限公司 国有企业 | 10.00% | BVIP | 2028-12-01 | 2026-01 ...

机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，粤电力A十大流通股东中，南方中证500ETF（510500）位居第七 大流通股东，持股1303.04万股，相比上期减少29.85万股。 粤电力A所属申万行业为：公用事业-电力-火力发电。所属概念板块包括：生物质能、光伏玻璃、太阳 能（光伏）、低价、超超临界发电等。 截至11月30日，粤电力A股东户数6.99万，较上期减少36.39%；人均流通股0股，较上期增加0.00%。 2025年1月-9月，粤电力A实现营业收入377.17亿元，同比减少11.29%；归母净利润5.84亿元，同比减少 60.20%。 分红方面，粤电力AA股上市后累计派现133.34亿元。近三年，累计派现2.10亿元。 2月2日，粤电力A盘中下跌2.04%，截至13:54，报4.79元/股，成交1.40亿元，换手率1.12%，总市值 251.49亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出705.23万元，特大单买入492.57万元，占比3.52%，卖出446.54万元，占 比3.19%；大单买入1693.29万元，占比12.09%，卖出2444.56万元，占比17.45%。 粤电力A今年以来股价涨8.37%， ...

行业研究丨深度报告丨公用事业 [Table_Title] 容量电价，因何而来？向何处去？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 长期以来，由于定价机制的差异，导致长协趋于现货的"电价平权"现象成为火电成本回收的 重要矛盾，其背后在于容量电价对固定成本的回收长期未能实现破局。我们测算可靠容量补偿 机制执行后，纵使在供需矛盾较为突出的广东省，火电电量电价按照现货价格结算仍可盈利， 即长协与现货的双轨制矛盾正式将迎刃而解，长协将不再承担过多固定成本回收压力。我们认 为，若可靠性容量补偿机制全国推广，长协与现货的鸿沟将基本被熨平，电力市场机制将得到 理顺，各类电源商业模式也将趋于完善。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 张韦华 司旗 宋尚骞 SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 SFC：BQT627 刘亚辉 张子淳 SAC：S0490523080003 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 27 %% %% %% %% research.955 ...

2026 年 1 月 26 日 行业研究 本周重点事件：1. 2025 年 1-12 月，全国累计完成电力市场交易电量 66394 亿千瓦时，同比增长 7.4%，占全社会用电量比重 64.0%，同比提高 1.3 个百 分点。从交易品种看，中长期交易电量 63522 亿千瓦时；现货交易电量 2872 亿千瓦时。绿电交易电量 3285 亿千瓦时，同比增长 38.3%。2. 1 月 20 日， 全国最大用电负荷首次在冬季突破 14 亿千瓦，达 14.17 亿千瓦。受大范围寒 潮天气影响，1 月 18 日以来全国用电负荷快速攀升，3 天内增加 1.5 亿千瓦， 保暖保供进入关键时期，是今年用电负荷第三次创冬季新高。3. 各公司发布 25 年业绩预告；其中黔源电力预计实现归母净利润 5.67-6.33 亿元，同比增 长 160%-190%，朗新科技预计实现归母净利润 1-1.5 亿元，同比增长 139.96%-159.93%，粤电力 A 预计实现归母净利润 5.77-7.57 亿元，同比下 降 40.12%-21.45%。 本周观点： 各省陆续披露年度长协竞价结果，考虑到今年动力煤价格中枢有 所下行，全国性火电运营商度 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and gas sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment for renewable energy and gas companies [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slight increase in overall power generation in 2025, primarily driven by wind and solar energy contributions, while traditional coal power generation shows a decline [8][9]. - The extreme cold weather in the U.S. has led to a significant spike in natural gas prices due to increased demand and supply constraints [18][22]. - The report suggests various investment opportunities across different segments of the energy sector, including coal power, hydropower, nuclear power, renewable energy, and gas companies [18][43]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Generation - In December 2025, total power generation was 858.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%. Coal power generation decreased by 3.2%, while renewable sources like wind and solar saw significant growth [10][11]. - For the entire year of 2025, total power generation reached 9715.9 billion kWh, up 2.2% from the previous year, with coal power down by 1.0% and solar power up by 24.4% [15][19]. 2. Natural Gas - As of January 23, 2026, the Henry Hub spot price surged to $30.72/mmBtu, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 903.53%. European gas prices also rose significantly due to low inventory levels and increased demand [20][28]. - The report notes that the extreme cold weather has tightened supply and demand dynamics, leading to higher global gas prices, particularly in Europe and Northeast Asia [22][37]. 3. Investment Recommendations - For coal power, companies like Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian are recommended due to their integrated coal and power operations [18]. - Hydropower companies such as Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation are favored due to favorable conditions for energy storage and reduced capital expenditures [19]. - Nuclear power companies like China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are highlighted for their stable cost structures and growth potential [18]. - Renewable energy operators such as Xinte Energy and Longyuan Power are recommended as new market rules enhance the stability of returns [18]. - Gas companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Liuhe are suggested for their potential recovery in profitability due to cost reductions and improved pricing mechanisms [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utilities industry is "Bullish" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The power sector is expected to see improved profitability and value re - evaluation after multiple rounds of power supply - demand contradictions. Coal - fired power's peak - shaving value is prominent, electricity prices may rise slightly, and the cost of coal - fired power enterprises is controllable. The performance of power operators is likely to improve significantly. For the natural gas sector, with the decline in upstream gas prices and the recovery of domestic consumption, the urban gas business can achieve stable gross margins and high growth in sales volume. Traders with low - cost long - term contract gas sources and receiving terminal assets may increase profits [5][98] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Performance - As of January 23rd, the utilities sector rose 2.3%, outperforming the market (CSI 300 fell 0.6% to 4,702.50). The top three industries in terms of gains and losses were building materials (9.2%), petroleum and petrochemicals (7.7%), and steel (7.3%), while the bottom three were banks (-2.7%), communications (-2.1%), and non - bank finance (-1.5%) [12] - The power sector rose 1.72%, and the gas sector rose 7.21%. Among sub - industries, thermal power generation rose 2.71%, hydropower generation fell 0.89%, nuclear power generation rose 0.33%, thermal services rose 2.09%, comprehensive power services rose 4.56%, photovoltaic power generation rose 7.21%, and wind power generation rose 2.82% [14] - In the power sector, the top three gainers were Nanwang Energy (16.26%), Shanghai Electric Power (11.95%), and Zhongmin Energy (7.76%); the bottom three were Yangtze Power (-1.96%), Huaneng Power International (-1.47%), and Huaneng Hydropower (-0.87%). In the gas sector, the top three gainers were Zhongtai Co., Ltd. (23.02%), Jiufeng Energy (14.70%), and Furan Energy (13.15%); the bottom three were Shuifa Gas (0.00%), ENN Energy (1.45%), and Dazhong Public Utilities (2.26%) [17] 3.2 Power Industry Data Tracking 3.2.1 Thermal Coal Prices - In January, the annual long - term contract price of Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal (Q5500) was 684 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton. As of January 23rd, the market price of Shanxi - produced thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port was 686 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/ton [23] - As of January 23rd, the pit - mouth price of Shaanxi Yulin thermal lump coal (Q6000) was 770 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the pit - mouth price (tax - included) of Datong南郊 coking coal (Q5500) was 626.08 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.82 yuan/ton; the wagon - loading price of Inner Mongolia Dongsheng large - sized clean coal (Q5500) was 564 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [23] - As of January 22nd, the FOB spot price of Newcastle NEWC 5500 kcal thermal coal was 73.55 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 US dollars/ton; the ARA 6000 kcal thermal coal spot price was 101.5 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.80 US dollars/ton; the Richards Bay thermal coal FOB spot price was 80 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.95 US dollars/ton. As of January 23rd, the Newcastle NEWC index price was 108.4 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.2 US dollars/ton. The ex - warehouse price of Indonesian coal (Q5500) at Guangzhou Port was 731.9 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.81 yuan/ton; the ex - warehouse price of Australian coal (Q5500) at Guangzhou Port was 737.15 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.36 yuan/ton [26] 3.2.2 Thermal Coal Inventory and Power Plant Daily Consumption - As of January 23rd, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 582 tons, a week - on - week increase of 32 tons [30] - As of January 22nd, the coal inventory of 17 inland provinces was 9,010.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 290.3 tons (3.12%); the daily consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 445.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 33.7 tons/day (8.18%); the available days were 20.2 days, a decrease of 2.4 days compared to last week [32] - As of January 22nd, the coal inventory of 8 coastal provinces was 3,299.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 49.5 tons (1.48%); the daily consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 241.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23.9 tons/day (10.97%); the available days were 13.7 days, a decrease of 1.7 days compared to last week [32] 3.2.3 Hydropower Inflow Situation - As of January 23rd, the Three Gorges outbound flow was 9,180 cubic meters per second, a year - on - year increase of 13.05%, and flat week - on - week [45] 3.2.4 Key Power Market Transaction Electricity Prices - In the Guangdong day - ahead spot market, as of January 16th, the weekly average price was 349.15 yuan/MWh, a week - on - week increase of 10.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%. In the real - time spot market, the weekly average price was 291.58 yuan/MWh, a week - on - week decrease of 0.83% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.2% [52] - In the Shanxi day - ahead spot market, as of January 22nd, the weekly average price was 377.70 yuan/MWh, a week - on - week increase of 253.77% and a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. In the real - time spot market, the weekly average price was 385.26 yuan/MWh, a week - on - week increase of 194.3% and a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [59] - In the Shandong day - ahead spot market, as of January 18th, the weekly average price was 221.85 yuan/MWh, a week - on - week increase of 9.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.4%. In the real - time spot market, the weekly average price was 275.45 yuan/MWh, a week - on - week increase of 50.11% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9% [60] 3.3 Natural Gas Industry Data Tracking 3.3.1 Domestic and International Natural Gas Prices - As of January 23rd, the national index of LNG ex - factory prices at the Shanghai Oil and Gas Trading Center was 3,992 yuan/ton (about 2.85 yuan/cubic meter), a year - on - year decrease of 7.44% and a month - on - month increase of 3.72%. In November 2025, the average import price of domestic LNG was 490.97 US dollars/ton (about 2.48 yuan/cubic meter), a year - on - year decrease of 17.25% and a month - on - month increase of 2.80%. As of January 23rd, the CIF price of imported LNG in China was 11.32 US dollars/million British thermal units (about 2.93 yuan/cubic meter), a year - on - year decrease of 19.80% and a month - on - month increase of 9.58% [58] - As of January 21st, the European TTF spot price was 13.79 US dollars/million British thermal units, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% and a week - on - week increase of 21.0%; the US HH spot price was 4.98 US dollars/million British thermal units, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and a week - on - week increase of 68.8%; the Chinese DES spot price was 10.6 US dollars/million British thermal units, a year - on - year decrease of 22.6% and a week - on - week increase of 6.5% [61] 3.3.2 EU Natural Gas Supply, Demand, and Inventory - In the third week of 2026, the EU's natural gas supply was 6.34 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 14.8% and a week - on - week increase of 4.6%. Among them, LNG supply was 3.21 billion cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 12.6%, accounting for 50.6% of the natural gas supply; imported pipeline gas was 3.13 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 4.2% and a week - on - week decrease of 2.6%. From January to March 2026, the EU's cumulative natural gas supply was 18.28 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 11.2% [65] - In the fourth week of 2026, the EU's natural gas inventory was 54.489 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.60% and a week - on - week decrease of 4.45%. As of January 21st, 2026, the EU's natural gas inventory level was 47.6% [73] - In the third week of 2026, the EU's estimated natural gas consumption was 11.82 billion cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. From January to March 2026, the EU's estimated cumulative natural gas consumption was 33.49 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 13.4% [75] 3.3.3 Domestic Natural Gas Supply and Demand - In November 2025, the apparent domestic natural gas consumption was 36.28 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative apparent domestic natural gas consumption was 388 billion cubic meters, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.1% [78] - In December 2025, the domestic natural gas production was 22.98 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The LNG import volume was 8.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8% and a month - on - month increase of 22.2%. The PNG import volume was 4.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative domestic natural gas production was 261.89 billion cubic meters, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.3%. The cumulative LNG import volume was 68.43 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 10.7%. The cumulative PNG import volume was 59.43 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.0% [79] 3.4 This Week's Industry News 3.4.1 Power Industry - Related News - In December 2025, the power generation of above - scale industrial enterprises was 858.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. From January to December 2025, it was 9,715.9 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. In December 2025, the decline of thermal power narrowed, and the growth rates of hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and solar power generation slowed down [87] - Facing the severe test of winter power supply, the national energy system took multiple measures to ensure stable supply. After winter 2026, the national electricity load increased rapidly, exceeding 1.4 billion kilowatts for the first time on January 20th, reaching 1.417 billion kilowatts and setting three consecutive winter records. The daily electricity consumption also exceeded 30 billion kWh for the first time in winter, reaching 30.47 billion kWh on January 19th [87] 3.4.2 Natural Gas Industry - Related News - From January to December 2025, the natural gas production of above - scale industrial enterprises was 261.9 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. In December, the production was 23 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 5.1% [88] 3.5 This Week's Important Announcements - Shenergy Co., Ltd.: In 2025, the power generation of its controlled power plants was 57.654 billion kWh, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. The on - grid electricity was 55.376 billion kWh, with an average on - grid electricity price of 0.494 yuan/kWh (tax - included). In the fourth quarter of 2025, it added 2.0672 million kilowatts of controlled installed capacity. As of the end of 2025, its controlled installed capacity was 20.6611 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 15.1% [89] - Shanghai Electric Power Co., Ltd.: From January to December 2025, its combined power generation was 78.232 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 1.41%. The on - grid electricity was 74.979 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 1.49%. The average on - grid electricity price was 0.58 yuan/kWh. As of the end of December 2025, its controlled installed capacity was 26.3213 million kilowatts, and clean energy accounted for 62.59% of the installed capacity [90] - Hubei Energy Group Co., Ltd.: As of the end of 2025, its total assets were 100.081 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.83%. The attributable net profit was 1.896 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.51% [91] - SDIC Power Holdings Co., Ltd.: From October to December 2025, the power generation of its controlled enterprises was 33.142 billion kWh, and the on - grid electricity was 32.229 billion kWh, a year - on - year decrease of 14.22% and 14.43% respectively. From January to December 2025, the power generation was 158.093 billion kWh, and the on - grid electricity was 154.209 billion kWh, a year - on - year decrease of 8.12% and 8.06% respectively. In the fourth quarter, it added 2.1471 million kilowatts of controlled installed capacity. As of the end of the fourth quarter, its installed controlled capacity was 46.8956 million kilowatts [92] - Guanghui Energy Co., Ltd.: It is estimated that the attributable net profit in 2025 will be between 1.32 billion yuan and 1.47 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 50.03% - 55.13% [93] - Furan Energy Group Co., Ltd.: In 2025, its natural gas supply was 4.931 billion cubic meters, and its operating revenue was 33.754 billion yuan, a year - on -

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 广东电力发展股份有限公司 2025年度业绩预告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 一、本期业绩预计情况 1、业绩预告期间：2025年1月1日-2025年12月31日 2、预计的经营业绩：同比下降 ■ 二、与会计师事务所沟通情况 证券代码：000539、200539 证券简称：粤电力A、粤电力B 公告编号：2026-07 公司债券代码：149418 公司债券简称：21粤电02 公司债券代码：149711 公司债券简称：21粤电03 本次业绩预告未经会计师事务所审计,系公司初步测算结果，但公司已就有关事项与年度审计会计师事 务所进行了预沟通，公司与会计师事务所在业绩预告方面不存在分歧。 三、业绩变动原因说明 2025年度，由于电力市场竞争加剧及相关政策调整，公司上网电价同比显著下行，对全年营业收入形成 较大压力。燃煤、燃气等主要发电燃料价格整体延续了下降趋势，对公司控制成本产生积极影响。但由 于燃料成本下降效应在全年体现存在一定的滞后性，叠加新项目投产带来的成本增加，未能抵销电价下 降对利润的不利影响 ...

粤电力Ａ公告称，2025年度，公司累计完成合并报表口径发电量1277.82亿千瓦时，同比增加1.54%；上 网电量1212.22亿千瓦时，同比增加1.46%。截至2025年末，公司拥有可控装机容量4668.31万千瓦，受 托管理装机容量895.4万千瓦，合计5532.51万千瓦。2025年，公司通过自建及收购新增煤电装机300万千 瓦、光伏99.36万千瓦、风电60万千瓦，通过煤电技改增加装机容量6万千瓦。 ...