Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's revenue has been impacted by business restructuring, leading to a continuous decline in income but an improvement in profit margins. The company reported total revenue of 7.317 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 16.9%, with a net profit of 382 million yuan, compared to a loss of 292 million yuan in the same period last year [4][6] - The report attributes the revenue decline primarily to the divestment of real estate operations, contraction in the meat business, and temporary pressure on liquor demand. The company's gross margin has improved due to structural adjustments, with gross margins increasing by 6.9 percentage points and 13.5 percentage points for the first three quarters and the third quarter of 2024, respectively [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 7.317 billion yuan, down 16.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 382 million yuan, compared to a loss of 292 million yuan in the same period last year. In Q3 2024, revenue was 1.630 billion yuan, down 37.2% year-on-year, with a net loss of 41 million yuan, an improvement from a loss of 211 million yuan in Q3 2023 [4][6] - The company’s revenue from the liquor and slaughtering sectors showed contrasting trends, with liquor revenue up 3.2% and slaughtering revenue down 36.6% in the first half of 2024 [4] Cost and Expenses - The report notes that the company's expense ratio increased by 2.5 percentage points to 25.4% in Q3 2024, with sales, management, and research expenses rising. However, the significant increase in gross margin has led to a reduction in net losses [5] Cash Flow and Receivables - The company's cash flow from sales was 1.979 billion yuan in Q3 2024, down 21.1% year-on-year, which was a smaller decline compared to the revenue drop. The net cash flow from operating activities was 110 million yuan, down 42.8% year-on-year, indicating a better performance relative to profit [5] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to have revenues of 8.957 billion yuan, 9.824 billion yuan, and 10.654 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 331 million yuan, 515 million yuan, and 656 million yuan. The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.45 yuan, 0.69 yuan, and 0.88 yuan for the same years [6][11] Valuation - The report assigns a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18-22 times for the company's liquor business, leading to a fair value range of 16.65-20.35 yuan per share [6][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [7]. Core Views - The company has shown a significant improvement in net profit, with a year-on-year increase of 230.72% in the first three quarters of 2024, despite a 16.92% decline in revenue [1]. - The white liquor business remains stable, and the pork business is showing signs of reduced losses, with a notable recovery in profitability [2]. - The report anticipates a recovery in gross margins in Q4 2024 due to early channel stocking for the upcoming Spring Festival [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 7.317 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.92% year-on-year, while net profit reached 382 million yuan, up 230.72% [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 improved by 13.45 percentage points to 36.26% compared to the previous year [1]. - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 363 million, 535 million, and 639 million yuan respectively, with a revision from previous estimates [2]. Business Segment Insights - The white liquor segment's revenue remained stable year-on-year, with ongoing consumer cultivation efforts enhancing brand visibility and potential sales conversion [2]. - The pork segment has seen improved profitability due to adjustments in production and product mix, benefiting from a recent rise in domestic pork prices [2]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates of -0.40 yuan for 2023, transitioning to 0.49 yuan in 2024, and reaching 0.86 yuan by 2026 [5]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to improve from -45.3 in 2023 to 21.0 in 2026, reflecting a recovery in profitability [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [4][5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.317 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 16.92%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 382 million yuan, a significant increase of 230.72% [4][5]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.63 billion yuan, down 37.2% year-on-year, with a net loss of 41 million yuan, improving from a loss of 211 million yuan in the same period last year [4][5]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, now predicting net profits of 352 million, 452 million, and 552 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 28% and 22% for 2025 and 2026 [5][6]. Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price: 18.89 yuan - Market capitalization: 14,012 million yuan - Price-to-book ratio: 1.9 [2][3]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024E is projected at 9.702 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -8.4% [7]. - The gross profit margin is expected to be 34.8% in 2024E, with a return on equity (ROE) of 4.9% [7]. - The company aims to maintain stable performance in its liquor business while reducing losses in its meat segment [6][7]. Business Strategy - The liquor business remains stable, focusing on nurturing new growth points and maintaining market presence [6]. - The meat segment is undergoing structural adjustments to reduce losses, with a focus on optimizing the supply chain [6]. - The company has a strong brand presence in the liquor market, particularly with its flagship product, Niulan Mountain liquor [5][6].

Revenue and Profit - Revenue for Q3 2024 was CNY 1,630,250,242.43, a decrease of 37.20% compared to the same period last year[2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY -40,508,510.21, an increase of 80.83% year-on-year[2] - Total operating revenue for Q3 2024 was CNY 7,316,762,837.51, a decrease of 17.8% compared to CNY 8,807,316,989.49 in the same period last year[13] - Net profit for Q3 2024 was CNY 389,127,515.53, a significant recovery from a net loss of CNY 295,325,626.52 in the previous year[14] - Earnings per share for Q3 2024 was CNY 0.5151, compared to a loss per share of CNY -0.3940 in the same quarter last year[15] Cash Flow - Cash flow from operating activities for the year-to-date was CNY -907,851,810.41, a decrease of 54.92% compared to the previous year[2] - Cash flow from operating activities for Q3 2024 was CNY 6,294,252,322.73, down from CNY 6,944,383,547.43 in the previous year[16] - The net cash flow from operating activities was -907,851,810.41 CNY, an improvement from -2,013,657,127.09 CNY in the previous year, indicating a reduction in cash outflow[17] - Total cash outflow from operating activities amounted to 7,202,104,133.14 CNY, down from 8,958,040,674.52 CNY year-over-year[17] - Cash inflow from financing activities was 3,161,218,568.63 CNY, down from 3,998,785,143.07 CNY in the previous year[17] - The net cash flow from financing activities was 1,059,639.06 CNY, a recovery from -99,000,942.97 CNY in the previous year[17] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets as of September 30, 2024, were CNY 14,088,906,998.42, down 8.32% from the end of the previous year[2] - Current assets decreased from CNY 10,107,212,465.12 to CNY 9,105,971,053.36, a reduction of about 9.9%[11] - Total liabilities decreased to CNY 6,897,883,012.36 from CNY 8,565,269,748.66, indicating a reduction of 19.5%[13] - Total liabilities increased from CNY 9,107,212,465.12 to CNY 9,105,971,053.36, indicating a slight decrease of about 0.1%[12] - Short-term borrowings increased from CNY 2,564,331,609.58 to CNY 2,609,242,602.75, an increase of approximately 1.8%[12] Shareholder Information - The total number of ordinary shareholders at the end of the reporting period was 96,758[8] - The largest shareholder, Beijing Shunxin Holdings Group Co., Ltd., held 38.36% of the shares[8] Financial Expenses - Financial expenses decreased by CNY 130.08 million, a decline of 96.43%, due to reduced financing scale and increased interest income[6] - The company reported a significant decrease in financial expenses, down to CNY 4,816,396.83 from CNY 134,894,275.56, a reduction of 96.4%[14] Inventory and Receivables - Accounts receivable increased by CNY 1,173.36 million, a growth of 30.83% due to increased customer receivables[4] - Inventory decreased from CNY 2,194,181,966.67 to CNY 1,824,836,386.77, a reduction of approximately 16.9%[11] - The company reported a significant increase in other receivables from CNY 6,452,594.19 to CNY 11,072,727.99, an increase of approximately 71.5%[11] Research and Development - Research and development expenses for Q3 2024 were CNY 22,435,012.83, slightly down from CNY 24,022,666.07 in the previous year[14] Audit and Reporting - The company did not undergo an audit for the third quarter report[18] - The report was released by the Board of Directors on October 29, 2024[18]

一、指数名称和代码 二、指数基日和基点 该指数以 2014 年 12 月 31 日为基日，以 1000 点为基点。 三、样本选取方法 2024 年 9 月 | 版本号 V1.3 中证央企结构调整指数编制方案 中证央企结构调整指数从央企上市公司中，综合评估其在市值规模、股东权 益回报、红利支付水平、科技创新投入等方面情况，选取其中较具代表性的上市 公司证券作为指数样本，以反映央企结构调整板块相关上市公司证券的整体表现。 1、样本空间 同中证全指指数的样本空间 2、可投资性筛选 过去一年日均成交金额排名位于样本空间前 80%。 3、选样方法 （1）对于样本空间内符合可投资性筛选条件的证券，选取属于国资委央企 1 指数名称：中证央企结构调整指数 指数简称：结构调整 英文名称：CSI Central-SOEs' Structural Reform Index 英文简称：SOEs' Structural Reform 指数代码：000860 2024 年 9 月 | 版本号 V1.3 名录，以及实际控制权或第一大股东归属于国务院国资委的上市公司证券作为待 选样本； （2）在上述待选样本中，剔除满足以下任一条件的证券： ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark index within the next six months [4][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 5.687 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.45%, but turned a profit with a net profit of 423 million yuan compared to a loss of 81 million yuan in the same period last year [2]. - The white liquor business remains stable, while the pork business has shown signs of reduced losses, with a focus on improving profitability [2]. - The report highlights a strategic focus on maintaining the white liquor segment and reducing losses in the pork business as the main themes for the company [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported revenues of 4.698 billion yuan from white liquor, 786 million yuan from pork, and 203 million yuan from other businesses, with year-on-year changes of +3.17%, -36.64%, and -51.35% respectively [2]. - The company’s revenue from the Beijing region was 1.601 billion yuan, down 22.93%, while revenue from outside Beijing was 4.085 billion yuan, down 1.17% [2]. - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was 34.05%, an increase of 12.58 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of -1.72%, improving from -19.26% in the same period last year [2]. Business Segments - The white liquor segment's revenue breakdown shows high-end liquor (over 50 yuan per 500ml) at 603 million yuan, mid-range liquor (10-50 yuan) at 638 million yuan, and low-end liquor (under 10 yuan) at 3.456 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of +5.94%, -7.29%, and +4.87% respectively [2]. - The pork business has seen a reduction in losses, with a revenue contribution of 13.82% in H1 2024, down 6.14 percentage points year-on-year, and a gross margin of 2.53%, up 14.95 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Profitability Forecast - The company’s projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 506 million yuan, 708 million yuan, and 856 million yuan respectively, with previous estimates being 479 million yuan, 618 million yuan, and 848 million yuan [2][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a 6-month outlook maintained [3]. Core Views - The company's revenue has been impacted by its pork business, while profitability has shown significant improvement. The revenue for Q2 2024 was 1.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.26%, but the net profit attributable to the parent company improved by 93.15% to a loss of 28 million yuan [1]. - The company is focusing on product segmentation, particularly in the liquor segment, with a strategy to enhance brand positioning and market promotion [1][2]. Financial Performance - For H1 2024, the company's revenue from pork, other products, and liquor was 786 million yuan, 203 million yuan, and 4.698 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -36.64%, -51.35%, and +3.17% [1]. - The gross profit margin for the liquor business was 42.86%, while the pork business saw an improvement in profitability due to better industry conditions and product structure [1]. - The company expects revenues of 10.5 billion yuan, 11.4 billion yuan, and 12.4 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits projected to be 500 million yuan, 700 million yuan, and 800 million yuan [2][5]. Market and Product Strategy - The company is enhancing its low-end liquor offerings, which have a strong price advantage, while also focusing on upgrading its product structure to include more high-end products [1]. - The number of liquor distributors increased by 14 to 459, indicating a strengthening distribution network [1]. Financial Ratios and Valuation - The company's P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 21X, 16X, and 13X respectively, reflecting a potential recovery in profitability [2][5]. - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 17.2 billion yuan by 2024, with a debt ratio of 46.4% [3][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shunxin Agriculture (000860.SZ) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.687 billion yuan for H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.45%, but achieved a net profit of 423 million yuan, compared to a loss of 81 million yuan in the same period last year [4] - The white liquor segment showed positive growth, with H1 revenue of 4.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.17%, while the slaughtering segment saw a revenue decline of 36.64% [4] - The report forecasts revenue for 2024-2026 to be 10.86 billion yuan, 11.92 billion yuan, and 13.01 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.5%, 9.8%, and 9.1% [5] Financial Performance Summary - H1 2024 net profit was 423 million yuan, significantly better than the forecasted median of 405 million yuan [4] - The company’s high-end liquor, mid-range liquor, and low-end liquor revenues changed by +5.94%, -7.29%, and +4.87% respectively in H1 2024 [4] - The gross profit margins for high-end, mid-range, and low-end liquors decreased by 2.84, 5.26, and 3.36 percentage points respectively compared to the previous year [5] Future Projections - The report projects net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 630 million yuan, 800 million yuan, and 968 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 311.8%, 27.8%, and 20.9% respectively [5] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.84 yuan, 1.08 yuan, and 1.30 yuan respectively [6]

F 证券研究报告 白酒 顺鑫农业（000860.SZ） 增持-A(维持) 白酒业务保持稳定，盈利水平扭亏为盈 2024 年 8 月 28 日 公司研究/公司快报 公司近一年市场表现 事件描述 事件：公司发布 2024 年半年报，24H1 公司实现营业收入 56.87 亿元， 同比减少 8.45%。实现归母净利润 4.23 亿元，同比扭亏为盈；24Q2 公司实 现营业收入 16.30 亿元，同比减少 23.26%，实现归母净利润-0.28 亿元，上 年同期为-4.09 亿元，同比大幅减亏。 事件点评 白酒业务保持稳定，上半年业绩扭亏为盈。公司上半年实现营业收入 市场数据：2024 年 8 月 27 日 56.87 亿元，同比减少 8.45%。其中，白酒业务实现收入 46.98 亿元，同比增 收盘价（元）： 14.99 长 3.17%。其中高/中/低档酒分别实现营收 6.03/6.38/34.56 亿元，同比 年内最高/最低（元）： 26.78/14.90 +5.94%/-7.29%/+4.87%，消费弱复苏下餐饮相关消费表现疲软，中档酒收入 流通 A 股/总股本（亿 股）： 7.42/7.42 增速有所承压；同 ...

食品饮料 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 08 月 27 日 顺鑫农业 (000860) ——24H1 点评：白酒业务基本稳定 猪肉板块大幅减亏 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 08 月 26 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 15.64 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 26.78/14.93 | | 市净率 | 1.6 | | 息率（分红 / 股价） | | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 11,601 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 2,855.52/8,194.65 | | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | | | | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 06 月 30 日 | | | | | 每股净资产（元） | 9.71 | | 资产负债率 % | 46.40 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | ...