Core Viewpoint - The logistics sector experienced a strong rally on July 1, with significant stock price increases for companies such as Huapengfei, Shentong Express, Yunda Holdings, and others, driven by recent government policies aimed at addressing "involution" competition and promoting high-quality development in the industry [1]. Industry Developments - The State Post Bureau held a meeting with express delivery companies to discuss the regulation of "involution" competition and the rectification of illegal charges for package collection in rural areas, emphasizing the need for a healthy industry development environment [1]. - National policies released since July 1 focus on combating "involution" in the express delivery sector, with a clear stance against excessive competition and a push for improved service quality at the end of the delivery chain [1]. Price Adjustments - In Yiwu, Zhejiang, a price increase measure has been implemented, raising the minimum price standard from 1.1 yuan to 1.2 yuan, resulting in an approximate 0.05 yuan increase in the average price per package [1]. - Market expectations suggest that the South China grain-producing region may follow suit with price adjustments in early August, indicating a potential shift towards improved pricing strategies in the industry [1]. Future Outlook - Under the guidance of "anti-involution" and high-quality development policies, the express delivery industry is expected to see a marginal improvement in chaotic competition, leading to a new balance among regulation, competition, profitability, and service quality [1]. - The performance of prices and profits in the express delivery sector during the peak season in the fourth quarter of this year is anticipated to be promising [1].

截至2025年8月1日 10:36，中证A500指数上涨0.06%，成分股捷佳伟创20cm涨停，韵达股份10cm涨停， 圆通速递上涨9.78%，甘李药业上涨6.39%，大全能源上涨6.18%。A500ETF嘉实(159351)多空胶着。 截至7月31日，A500ETF嘉实近6月净值上涨9.08%。从收益能力看，截至2025年7月31日，A500ETF嘉 实自成立以来，最高单月回报为4.48%，最长连涨月数为3个月，最长连涨涨幅为10.04%。截至2025年7 月31日，A500ETF嘉实近3个月超越基准年化收益为7.99%。 数据显示，截至2025年7月31日，中证A500指数前十大权重股分别为贵州茅台、宁德时代、中国平安、 招商银行、兴业银行、美的集团、长江电力、紫金矿业、东方财富、比亚迪，前十大权重股合计占比 19.83%。 中信建投研报表示，二季度经济数据超预期，7月底中央政治局会议定调积极，预计三季度经济整体仍 有支撑。流动性方面，近期国内流动性环境整体较为宽松，股债跷跷板效应显现。海外方面，近期美国 和多个国家关税谈判情况均已落地，实际加关税税率在15%左右。 该机构预计后续与中国谈判也仍有较大协商 ...

Group 1 - The main focus of the article is on the net inflow and outflow of capital in various sectors, highlighting significant movements in the market on a specific day [1] - The power equipment sector saw the highest net inflow of 15.22 billion, followed by the new energy industry with 9.62 billion and the automotive sector with 6.19 billion [2] - The computer sector experienced the largest net outflow of 34.09 billion, with the electronics and non-ferrous metals sectors also seeing significant outflows of 31.71 billion and 19.37 billion respectively [3] Group 2 - Individual stocks with the highest net inflow included Jiejia Weichuang with 5.25 billion, Hikvision with 4.45 billion, and Beiqi Blue Valley with 4.10 billion [4] - New Yisheng had the largest net outflow at 5.77 billion, followed by Northern Rare Earth with 5.58 billion and Yingweike with 5.57 billion [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent meeting by the State Post Bureau aims to address the "involution" competition in the express delivery industry, indicating a shift in the competitive landscape following the acquisition of Cainiao Express by Shentong [1] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The express delivery sector is experiencing a wave of stock price increases amid a crackdown on "involution" competition, with companies like Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu benefiting from this trend [5] - The "involution" competition has led to many express companies offering services below cost to capture market share, resulting in significant pressure on profit margins for both headquarters and franchisees [3][5] - Recent price adjustments in grain-producing areas signal a clear intention to stabilize market prices, with increases ranging from a few cents to several dimes [1] Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The recent revision of the Price Law targets predatory pricing practices, defining low-cost dumping aimed at eliminating competitors as illegal [3] - The new Anti-Unfair Competition Law, effective from October 15, introduces specific regulations against "involution" competition, prohibiting platforms from forcing sellers to price below cost [3][5] - These legal changes are expected to create a synergistic effect in regulating "involution" competition and chaotic low-price dumping across various market levels [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - The current strategy of "price for volume" is showing diminishing returns, with further price cuts unlikely to stimulate demand and instead harming profitability [5] - The upcoming traditional peak season in Q4 is anticipated to improve pricing stability and enhance profit margins for express delivery companies [5] - The express delivery sector has seen collective stock price increases recently, with Jitu rising over 50% and Shentong over 40% in the past month, indicating potential valuation recovery [5]

Group 1 - The express logistics sector experienced significant gains on July 30, with Shentong Express rising by 7%, YTO Express by 5%, and other companies like Yunda and Huapengfei also seeing increases [1] - Shentong Express, a leading private express company in China, reported a market capitalization of 23.4 billion and a trading volume increase of 5.21% [1] - YTO Express, a comprehensive logistics operator, has a market capitalization of 53.94 billion and focuses on expanding its international express and supply chain services [1] Group 2 - The State Post Bureau emphasized the need for improved industry regulation and the establishment of market rules to combat "involution" competition in the express delivery sector [2] - The Central Financial Committee's recent meeting highlighted the importance of promoting a unified national market and addressing low-price competition among enterprises [2] - The Yiwu Postal Administration announced an increase in the minimum express delivery price by 0.1 RMB to 1.2 RMB, effective July 18 [2] Group 3 - Current price adjustments in the Yiwu region have led to a 0.05 RMB increase per ticket, with expectations for similar measures in the southern grain-producing areas [4] - The express delivery industry is anticipated to see improved pricing and profitability in the fourth quarter, driven by regulatory guidance and a shift towards high-quality development [4] - If regulatory policies continue to be implemented, the industry may transition from price wars to value wars, leading to long-term improvements in express companies' performance [4]

A股早盘快递概念走高，申通快递走出4天2板，圆通速递、韵达股份、东航物流、东杰智能等跟涨。消 息面上，7月29日，国家邮政局召开快递企业座谈会，就依法依规治理行业"内卷式"竞争，强化农村地 区领取快件违规收费等突出问题整治，促进行业高质量发展进行座谈交流。 ...

Core Points - The State Post Bureau held a meeting on July 29 to address "involution" competition and illegal charges for package collection in rural areas, aiming to promote high-quality development in the express delivery industry [1][3] - The meeting emphasized the need for express companies to enhance their awareness of the overall situation and implement the directives from the central government [3][4] - The meeting highlighted the importance of compliance, risk management, and the establishment of a long-term mechanism to ensure stable operations and high-quality development of enterprises [3][4] Industry Development - Since the 18th National Congress, the express delivery industry in China has experienced rapid growth [3] - Express companies are encouraged to innovate their business models and improve the adaptability and sustainability of services in rural areas [3][4] - The meeting called for strengthening the political guidance of party building in the industry to enhance governance and management [3][4] Regulatory Measures - The postal management department is urged to increase regulatory and enforcement efforts to protect the legal rights of consumers and delivery personnel [3][4] - The meeting included discussions among representatives from major express companies such as Zhongtong, Yuantong, Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu, focusing on regulatory issues and suggestions for improvement [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the express delivery industry [8]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is expected to experience a "de-involution" phase, with significant policy catalysts anticipated in the upcoming months. The transition from the off-peak to peak season is expected to enhance the pricing power of express companies [2][11]. - The pricing increase duration is projected to be between 2 to 4 months, with a price increase of 0.06 to 0.30 yuan per ticket expected during the peak season. The profit per ticket is anticipated to improve by 0.01 to 0.10 yuan in Q4 [2][11]. - The average profit elasticity for e-commerce express delivery is expected to reach double digits, with second-tier express companies showing even more significant profit elasticity [2][11]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The report discusses the recent meeting of the State Post Bureau, which emphasized the need to combat "involution" in the express delivery sector. It addresses three main questions: the timing and sustainability of the current "de-involution," the profit elasticity for core enterprises, and the tools available for this process [6]. Pricing Dynamics - The report analyzes historical pricing trends, indicating that the current "de-involution" phase may be catalyzed by policy changes, with pricing increases expected to last longer than in 2024 but shorter than in 2021. The report references past data to illustrate potential outcomes [11][20]. Profit Elasticity - The report provides a detailed analysis of profit elasticity for major express companies, projecting that if the industry begins to raise prices in August and continues until December, the net profit for companies like Zhongtong, Yunda, and Shentong could reach 95.8 billion, 40.6 billion, and 17.4 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding profit elasticities of 6.5%, 12.7%, and 27.9% [20][21]. Tools for "De-involution" - The report identifies two main strategies for achieving "de-involution": regulatory measures to curb price wars and encouraging mergers and acquisitions among leading companies to optimize competition. The acquisition of Danbird Logistics by Shentong Express is highlighted as a significant step towards improving market dynamics [25][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively seizing opportunities presented by the "de-involution" phase, recommending companies such as YTO Express, Shentong Express, Zhongtong Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the transportation industry [4][6][7]. Core Views - The "anti-involution" policy in the express delivery sector is expected to ease competition, with Shentong Express planning to acquire Dan Niao Logistics [3][54]. - The shipping industry is anticipated to see a bottoming out of oil transportation rates during the summer, with potential upward pressure on rates due to supply constraints and demand changes [1][22][23]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a decline in flight volumes, but the domestic passenger market is expected to continue optimizing supply and demand dynamics through 2025 [2][37][46]. Summary by Sections Shipping Sector - In July, crude oil entered the off-season, leading to a softening of oil freight rates, with expectations for a bottoming out during the summer [1]. - The current supply situation is relatively tight, and marginal changes in demand could significantly impact freight rates [1][22]. - Recommendations include China Merchants Energy and China Merchants Shipping, with a focus on China Merchants South Oil [1]. Aviation Sector - The overall and domestic passenger flight volumes have decreased by 1.5% and 1.4% respectively compared to the previous week, but remain above 2019 levels [2][37]. - The average ticket price for domestic routes has dropped by 8.0% year-on-year, while passenger load factors have improved slightly [2][37]. - Investment recommendations include closely monitoring ticket price performance during the peak summer season, with a focus on China National Aviation, Eastern Airlines, Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [2][46]. Express Delivery Sector - The "anti-involution" policy has been implemented to combat excessive competition, with price increases already observed in regions like Yiwu [3][53]. - The introduction of unmanned logistics vehicles is expected to reduce costs significantly for leading companies like SF Express and Zhongtong Express [3][61]. - Investment suggestions include SF Express, Zhongtong Express, YTO Express, and Shentong Express, with a focus on the impact of the "anti-involution" policy [3][63]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - China Merchants Energy, China Merchants Shipping, SF Express, Zhongtong Express, and YTO Express are all rated as "Outperform" [7]. - SF Express is expected to maintain a growth rate of 15-20% over the next two years, with a PE ratio of approximately 20 times in 2025 [3][63]. - China Merchants Shipping reported a 20.1% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025, indicating strong performance [27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the express delivery industry [1] Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing a trend of "anti-involution," leading to a revaluation of its value [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of regulatory actions in stabilizing the industry and improving profitability [3] - Short-term price improvements are expected, with potential for further increases during peak seasons [3] Summary by Sections 1. Review of 2021's "Anti-Involution" - In 2021, the express delivery industry saw a significant policy push to protect courier rights, leading to price increases and improved profitability [3][19] - The average price per ticket for the "Tongda" system increased by approximately 0.6 yuan from the low point in August 2021 to January 2022 [3] - By Q4 2021, YTO Express reported a net profit of 1.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 202% [3] 2. Current Industry Dynamics - After 2023, the industry has re-entered a phase of price competition due to increased capacity and market share strategies, leading to profitability nearing historical lows [3][39] - The National Postal Administration has clearly opposed "involution-style" competition, indicating a regulatory environment similar to that of 2021 [3][65] - The report suggests monitoring regulatory developments in key production areas like Yiwu and Guangdong for potential price adjustments [3] 3. Short-term and Long-term Outlook - Short-term price improvements are anticipated, particularly in traditionally low-price cities, with potential for broader price increases in peak seasons [3][69] - The report forecasts a shift from price wars to value competition, which could enhance long-term profitability for leading express companies [3][69] - Investment recommendations include focusing on A-shares such as Shentong Express, YTO Express, and Yunda Express, as well as H-shares like Jitu Express and ZTO Express [3] 4. Financial Performance Metrics - In Q1 2025, the net profit per ticket for major companies like Zhongtong, YTO, Yunda, and Shentong fell close to or below historical lows [50] - The report highlights significant cash flow pressures, with some companies experiencing cash flow performance worse than the bottom of 2021 [50] - The report provides elasticity calculations indicating that price increases could significantly enhance profitability for express companies [70]