Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a slight increase in revenue for H1 2024, with total revenue at 2.479 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.36%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 15.6% to 344 million yuan due to insufficient domestic consumer confidence and extreme weather conditions impacting performance in Q2 [2][3] - The company continues to focus on high-quality sustainable development, with a notable increase in gross margin by 1.46 percentage points to 67.0% in H1 2024, despite rising expense ratios leading to a decline in net profit margin [3] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 downwards due to ongoing weak domestic consumption, with new estimates of 654 million yuan, 742 million yuan, and 831 million yuan respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 8, 7, and 6 times [3] Revenue and Profit Analysis - For H1 2024, the revenue breakdown by brand shows a decline for the main brand Baoshiniao by 3.7%, while Le Fei Ye experienced a significant growth of 32.2% [2] - The revenue contribution from different channels indicates a decline in online and direct sales, while franchise and group purchase revenues saw slight increases [2] Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin improved, but the increase in expense ratios led to a decrease in net profit margin, which fell by 2.62 percentage points to 13.87% in H1 2024 [3] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities decreased by 59% year-on-year to 14,000 yuan, primarily due to reduced government subsidies and increased operational expenses [3][10] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 7.055 billion yuan in 2023 to 10.494 billion yuan by 2026, with a steady increase in equity attributable to shareholders [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 5.06 CNY based on a 2024 PE valuation of 11 times [2][4][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2.48 billion CNY in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, but net profit fell by 15.6% to 340 million CNY, with Q2 showing a revenue and net profit decline of 4.5% and 38.3% respectively, which was below market expectations [1][6]. - The main brand faced growth pressure, while the Haggis brand showed stable growth and the Le Fei Ye brand experienced rapid growth. The main brand's revenue decreased by 3.7% in H1 2024, while Haggis's revenue increased by 0.2% and Le Fei Ye's revenue surged by 32.2% [1][6]. - The optional consumption demand was weak in the first half of the year, compounded by weather and high base effects, putting overall apparel retail under pressure. However, the company actively responded to external challenges by controlling discounts, optimizing channels, and enhancing brand promotion [1][6]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2022 was 4.31 billion CNY, with a projected revenue of 5.54 billion CNY for 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 5.4% [3][9]. - The gross profit margin increased by 1.5 percentage points to 67% in H1 2024, attributed to strict control over terminal discounts [1][3]. - The net profit margin for H1 2024 was 13.9%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [1][3]. Earnings Forecast - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024-2026 is 0.46 CNY, 0.54 CNY, and 0.61 CNY respectively, down from previous estimates of 0.56 CNY, 0.66 CNY, and 0.77 CNY [2][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][6][14]. Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth of 0.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, reaching 2.48 billion yuan, despite a challenging retail environment [2][4]. - Gross margin improved by 1.5 percentage points to 67.0% due to strict discount control, although net profit decreased by 15.6% to 340 million yuan [2][4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.7 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 102 million yuan, with a payout ratio of about 30% [2][4]. Revenue and Profitability - The second quarter saw a revenue decline of 4.5% year-on-year, with a gross margin increase of 1.1 percentage points to 66.0% [2][3]. - The company experienced a rise in sales expense ratio by 5.0 percentage points, leading to a net profit margin drop of 4.6 percentage points to 8.3% [2][3]. Brand Performance - Revenue from the brand "Baoxini" decreased by 3.7%, while "Hajisi" saw a slight increase of 0.2% in revenue [3]. - The "Lefeiye" brand benefited from a high-growth outdoor segment, achieving a revenue increase of 32.2% [3]. Financial Forecasts - The forecast for net profit from 2024 to 2026 is adjusted to 660 million, 750 million, and 830 million yuan respectively, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates [4][11]. - Revenue projections for the same period are revised to 5.367 billion, 5.929 billion, and 6.521 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 2.2%, 10.5%, and 10.0% [4][11]. Valuation - The target price has been adjusted to a range of 5.4 to 5.8 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 12-13x for 2024 [4][14]. - The company’s financial metrics indicate a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.7 for 2024, with a projected earnings per share of 0.45 yuan [15][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price set above the current price of 3.67 CNY [4][3] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.13 billion CNY in Q2 2024, a decrease of 4.6% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 90 million CNY, down 38% year-on-year [1] - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.48 billion CNY, an increase of 0.4% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 15.6% to 340 million CNY [1] - The company is actively responding to external pressures by controlling terminal discounts, expanding channels, upgrading channel structures, and enhancing brand promotion [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.7 CNY per 10 shares, totaling approximately 100 million CNY, with a payout ratio of about 30% [1] Revenue by Brand - In H1 2024, the revenue breakdown by brand shows: - Baoshiniao: 770 million CNY, down 3.7%, accounting for 31% of total revenue - Haji's: 860 million CNY, up 0.3%, accounting for 35% - Lefeiye: 150 million CNY, up 32%, accounting for 6% - Baoniao: 510 million CNY, down 2%, accounting for 20% - Kaimiqie & TB: 90 million CNY, down 6%, accounting for 4% [1] Store Count - As of H1 2024, the company operates a total of 1,772 stores, with a net increase of 11 stores from the end of 2023 [1] - The breakdown by brand includes: - Baoshiniao: 807 stores, 229 of which are direct-operated - Haji's: 467 stores, 335 direct-operated and 132 franchised - Lefeiye: 80 stores, 78 direct-operated [1] Revenue by Channel - Revenue by channel in H1 2024 is as follows: - Online: 380 million CNY, down 2%, accounting for 15% - Direct-operated: 1.01 billion CNY, down 3%, accounting for 41% - Franchised: 360 million CNY, up 7%, accounting for 14% - Group purchase: 540 million CNY, down 2%, accounting for 22% [1] Financial Metrics - The company's gross margin for H1 2024 was 66.99%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin attributable to the parent company was 13.87%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points [1] - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024-2026 to 0.45, 0.53, and 0.60 CNY per share, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 8, 7, and 6 [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.48 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 15.6% to 340 million yuan [4]. - The performance in Q2 2024 was below expectations, with revenue of 1.13 billion yuan, down 4.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 90 million yuan, down 38.3% year-on-year [4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.7 yuan for every 10 shares [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2024, the revenue breakdown by brand shows Baoxini revenue at 770 million yuan (down 3.7%), Haji's revenue at 860 million yuan (up 0.3%), and Le Fei Ye revenue at 160 million yuan (up 32.2%) [5]. - Online sales decreased by 2.3% to 380 million yuan, while franchise sales increased by 7.4% to 360 million yuan [5]. - The company maintained a total of 1,772 stores, with a net increase of 11 stores compared to the end of 2023 [5]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 67.0%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 13.9%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points [5]. - The sales expense ratio increased to 40.5%, driven by higher employee costs and advertising expenses [5]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 700 million yuan, 780 million yuan, and 870 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8, 7, and 7 [5][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][2]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.479 billion yuan in H1 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.36%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 344 million yuan, down 15.60% [2][8]. - The company plans to distribute a mid-term cash dividend of 0.7 yuan per 10 shares, with a payout ratio of approximately 30% [8][21]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 640 million, 730 million, and 810 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.4, 0.5, and 0.6 yuan [2][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Performance - The company faced pressure from business demand in H1 2024, with the "Baoxini" and "Haggis" brands affected by reduced offline foot traffic, while "Lefeiye" showed strong performance with a revenue increase of 32.20% [2][8]. - The revenue breakdown for H1 2024 includes "Baoxini" at 770 million yuan (-3.69%), "Haggis" at 860 million yuan (+0.25%), and "Baoniao" at 507 million yuan (-2.28%) [2][8]. 2. Channel Performance - The company continues to optimize its channels, with a total of 1,772 stores as of H1 2024, an increase of 102 stores year-on-year [12][13]. - Franchise revenue grew by 7.39% to 360 million yuan, while direct sales revenue decreased by 3.28% to 1.01 billion yuan [12][13]. 3. Profitability and Financial Metrics - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 67.0%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, with the net profit margin at 13.9%, down 2.6 percentage points [2][17]. - The company reported a significant decline in operating cash flow, with a net cash flow of 140 million yuan, down 59.05% year-on-year [18][20]. 4. Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the multi-category development of the "Haggis" brand and its brand momentum, maintaining a "Buy" rating despite the downward adjustment in profit forecasts [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][2]. Core Views - The company faced challenges in the first half of 2024 due to weak terminal demand, adverse weather conditions, and high base effects, resulting in a slight revenue increase of 0.4% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 15.6% [1][2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its internal capabilities and expanding its multi-brand strategy to navigate the current market challenges [2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.48 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 340 million yuan, and a basic EPS of 0.24 yuan [1]. - The gross profit margin improved by 1.5 percentage points to 67.0%, attributed to strict control over terminal discounts [1][2]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.07 yuan per share (before tax) [1]. Brand Performance - Revenue contributions from major brands in the first half of 2024 were as follows: Baoxini (31.2%), Haggis (34.7%), Lefeiye (6.1%), and others [1]. - The performance of individual brands varied, with Baoxini and Haggis experiencing revenue changes of -3.7% and +0.3% respectively [1]. Channel Analysis - Revenue distribution by channel for the first half of 2024 was: Direct sales (40.7%), Group purchases (21.8%), Online (15.4%), and Franchises (14.4%), with respective year-on-year changes of -3.3%, -1.7%, -2.3%, and +7.4% [1]. - The total number of stores as of June 2024 was reported as follows: Baoxini (807), Haggis (467), Lefeiye (80), and others, with a net decrease in Baoxini stores [1]. Profitability and Cost Management - The report indicates that the increase in expense ratios outpaced the growth in gross margins, leading to a decline in net profit margins, which fell by 2.6 percentage points to 13.9% [1]. - The company’s operating cash flow decreased by 59.0% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced government subsidies and increased operational costs [1][2]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2024 to 2026 has been adjusted downward, with net profit estimates reduced by 16%, 17%, and 17% respectively, leading to projected EPS of 0.46, 0.52, and 0.59 yuan [2].

上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 纺织服饰 2024 年 08 月 17 日 报喜鸟 (002154) ——终端零售承边际走弱，24H1 归母净利润下滑 16% | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 08 月 16 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 3.90 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 6.94/3.87 | | 市净率 | 1.2 | | 息率（分红/股价） | 6.41 | | | 4,601 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） 上证指数/深证成指 | 2,879.43/8,349.87 | | | | | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 06 月 30 日 | | 每股净资产（元） | 2.96 | | 资产负债率 % | 32.22 | | 总股 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [2][3]. Core Views - The company reported a stable revenue of 2.48 billion yuan in H1 2024, with a year-on-year decline in net profit of 16% to 340 million yuan. The gross margin improved by 1.5 percentage points to 67.0% [1]. - The company is expected to continue its store expansion strategy, with a projected increase of 10% to 20% in new stores for the year, focusing on high-quality outlets in major cities [2]. - Despite short-term profit pressures due to fluctuating consumer environments, the company is anticipated to achieve steady revenue growth in 2024, with net profits projected at 657 million yuan [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2024, the company's revenue remained flat at 2.48 billion yuan, while net profit decreased by 16% to 340 million yuan. The adjusted net profit was 300 million yuan, down 11% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2024, revenue was 1.13 billion yuan, a 5% decline year-on-year, with net profit dropping 38% to 90 million yuan [1]. - The company's gross margin for Q2 2024 was 66.0%, reflecting a 1.1 percentage point increase, while the net margin decreased by 5.2 percentage points to 8.5% [1]. Brand Performance - HAZZYS brand revenue was stable at 860 million yuan in H1 2024, accounting for 36% of total sales. The brand opened 10 new stores, bringing the total to 467 [2]. - The main brand, Baoxini, saw a revenue decline of 4% to 770 million yuan, representing 32% of total sales. The brand's store count decreased by 10 to 817 [2]. - The Baoniao brand reported a 2% revenue decline to 510 million yuan, with expectations for stable growth in H2 2024 [2]. Cash Flow and Inventory Management - As of H1 2024, the company's inventory was 1.07 billion yuan, with a turnover period of 258.3 days, indicating stable inventory management [2]. - The net operating cash flow for H1 2024 was 140 million yuan, approximately 0.4 times the net profit for the same period [2].

资 产 负 债 表 | 2024年6月30日 | | | 编制单位：报喜鸟控股股份有限公司 | | | | | | | | | | | | 单位:元 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年末余额 | | | | | | | | 年初余额 | | | | 年末余额 | | 年初余额 | | | 资产 | | | | | 行次 | 合并 | 母公司 | 合并 | 母公司 | 负债和股东权益 | 行次 | 合并 | 母公司 | 合并 | 母公司 | | 流动资产： | | | | | 1 | | | | | 流动负债： | | | | | | | 货币资金 | | | | | 2 | 1,835,468,664.47 | 1,279,636,438.17 | 1,891,213,321.13 | 1,357,009,053.33 | 短期借款 | 41 | 506,339,270.84 | 42,000,000.00 | 549,358,724.21 ...