Core Viewpoint - The surge in global risk aversion has led to a significant increase in the precious metals market, particularly gold and silver, with silver emerging as a new favorite among investors [1][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong and A-share markets have seen substantial gains in the gold and precious metals sector, with China Silver Group rising over 21% and several other companies hitting their daily price limits [2]. - As of the latest data, spot silver has reached over $36 per ounce, marking a 13-year high, while COMEX silver futures are reported at $36.19 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of 1.08% [5]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for silver is expected to reach record levels in 2024, contributing to a structural deficit in the silver market for the fourth consecutive year, driven by strong industrial demand, particularly in green energy sectors like solar power [8]. - The recent underperformance of U.S. economic data and the anticipation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have positively influenced the prices of silver and other industrially used precious metals [8]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - Global geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-Iran relations, have heightened the demand for safe-haven assets, further boosting precious metals [8]. - The recent escalation of trade tensions, particularly with the doubling of tariffs on steel and aluminum by former President Trump, has raised concerns about potential tariffs on other key metals, impacting market sentiment [8]. Group 4: Future Price Expectations - Analysts predict that if U.S. non-farm payroll data falls short of expectations, it could strengthen market bets on a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve, potentially leading to a significant rise in precious metal prices [9]. - Forecasts suggest that silver prices could reach $40 by the end of this year or early 2026, with ongoing central bank purchases and robust safe-haven demand driving this trend [9].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.13%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.40% [2] - The chemical sector showed resilience, rising against the market trend, while sectors such as pet economy, education, and textile apparel faced significant declines [4] Sector Performance - The chemical sector saw notable gains, with specific stocks like Danhua Technology, Poly United, and Yonghe Shares hitting the daily limit up [7] - The precious metals sector also experienced upward movement, particularly in silver, with stocks like Hunan Silver and Zhongrun Resources reaching their daily limit up [14] Notable Stocks - In the innovation drug sector, Hailin Pharmaceutical achieved a 20% increase, while Changshan Pharmaceutical rose over 14% [7] - Chemical stocks such as Sulihua Shares, Xianda Shares, and Changqing Shares also saw significant gains, with each reaching close to the daily limit up [9][10] Precious Metals Insights - The silver price surged recently, with spot silver rising by 3.4%, reaching a peak of $36 per ounce, the highest since February 2012 [16] - The demand for precious metals is supported by inflation risks and geopolitical tensions, although fluctuations in U.S. Federal Reserve policies and the dollar's performance may increase volatility [16]

每经记者｜刘明涛 每经编辑｜叶峰 随着特朗普对等关税面临司法挑战，关税风波再起令黄金价格也再度走高，今日黄金板块表现抢眼，包括黄金股票ETF（159321）在内的5只黄金股相关 ETF半日涨幅超3.5%，领涨整个ETF市场。 | | | 黄金股相关ETF | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 涨幅% | 现价 | | 159321 | 黄金股票ETF | 3.99 | 1.12 | | 517520 | 黄金股ETF | 3.81 | 1.44 | | 517400 | 黄金股票ETF | 3.8 | 1.14 | | 159562 | 黄金股ETF | 3.54 | 157 | | 159322 | 黄金股票ETF基金 | 3.53 / | 1.17 | | 159315 ETF规模截止日: 5.30 | 黄金股ETF基金 | 3.4 | 1.18 | ETF份额变化方面，近8个交易日，黄金ETF规模整体呈现小幅增加，其中，黄金股ETF（517520）份额增加1亿份，短期份额增加相对较大。 投资逻辑来看，贸易逆差缩减的本质是美债买盘的衰减，美国长债利率上行概率加 ...

Group 1 - The gold stock sector is experiencing significant gains, with notable increases in stocks such as Western Gold, Mankalon, and others, indicating strong market interest in gold-related investments [1] - The Huafu Yongxin Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund has heavily invested in gold-related companies, achieving a year-to-date increase of 25.23% as of May 30, 2025, reflecting the positive impact of rising gold prices on these stocks [1] - International gold prices have surged, with spot gold breaking through $3,380 per ounce and COMEX gold futures rising by 2.74% to $3,406.4 per ounce, indicating a bullish trend in the gold market [1] Group 2 - Short-term market sentiment is supported by potential risks from U.S. "reciprocal tariffs," leading to a rise in gold prices, while long-term uncertainties in global tariff policies and regional politics continue to bolster gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] - The Huafu Yongxin Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund focuses on diversifying investments in A-share gold-related companies, allowing for exposure to the benefits of rising gold prices while mitigating risks associated with holding individual gold stocks [2]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Gold Mining Index has shown significant growth, with a year-to-date increase of 32.05%, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies involved in gold mining and refining [2]. Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Gold Mining Index reported a value of 2444.44 points as of May 30 [1]. - The index has increased by 0.47% over the past month, and by 24.92% over the last three months [2]. - The index is based on a reference point of 1000.0, established on December 31, 2011 [2]. Group 2: Index Composition - The top ten weighted companies in the index include: - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (19.17%) - Shandong Gold Mining (15.07%) - Shandong Gold International (14.34%) - Zijin Mining (13.95%) - Zhongjin Gold (13.61%) - Hunan Gold (11.53%) - Hengbang Shares (3.81%) - Xiaocheng Technology (3.13%) - Western Gold (3.0%) - Sichuan Gold (2.38%) [2]. - The index's holdings are entirely composed of the materials sector, with a 100% allocation [3]. Group 3: Market Distribution - The Shanghai Stock Exchange accounts for 64.80% of the index's holdings, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange represents 35.20% [2]. Group 4: Sample Adjustment - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [3]. - In special circumstances, the index may undergo temporary adjustments, such as when a sample company is delisted or undergoes significant corporate changes [3].

Core Viewpoint - Hunan Gold has experienced a decline for four consecutive trading days, with a cumulative drop of -4.98% [1] Company Overview - Hunan Gold Co., Ltd. was established on December 25, 2000, as Hunan Chenzhou Mining Co., Ltd. and was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on August 16, 2007 [1] - The company changed its name to Hunan Gold Co., Ltd. on May 18, 2015, while retaining the stock code "002155" [1] Shareholder Activity - Four funds under Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund have entered the top ten shareholders of Hunan Gold, all of which reduced their holdings in the first quarter of this year [1] - The funds include Qianhai Kaiyuan Hong Kong-Shenzhen Advantage Selection Mixed A, Qianhai Kaiyuan Quality Enterprises 6-Month Holding Mixed A, Qianhai Kaiyuan China Scarce Assets Mixed A, and Qianhai Kaiyuan National Comparative Advantage Mixed A [1] Fund Performance - Qianhai Kaiyuan Hong Kong-Shenzhen Advantage Selection Mixed A has a year-to-date return of 2.80%, ranking 663 out of 2306 in its category [1] - Qianhai Kaiyuan Quality Enterprises 6-Month Holding Mixed A has a year-to-date return of 2.02%, ranking 2143 out of 4538 [1] - Qianhai Kaiyuan China Scarce Assets Mixed A has a year-to-date return of -6.12%, ranking 2088 out of 2306 [1] - Qianhai Kaiyuan National Comparative Advantage Mixed A has a year-to-date return of -6.02%, ranking 2082 out of 2306 [1] Fund Manager Profile - The fund manager for the aforementioned funds is Qu Yang, who holds a Ph.D. in engineering from Tsinghua University and has been with Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund Management Co., Ltd. since July 2014 [6][8] - Qu Yang has extensive experience in fund management, having previously worked with Southern Fund and managed various funds over the years [6][8]

Market Overview - As of May 29, the gold concept sector declined by 0.66%, ranking among the top losers in the market, with notable declines in stocks such as Lai Shen Tong Ling, Mingpai Jewelry, and Man Ka Long [1][2] - The sector experienced a net outflow of 553 million yuan from major funds, with 46 stocks seeing outflows, and 6 stocks experiencing outflows exceeding 30 million yuan [1][2] Key Performers - The top gainers in the gold concept sector included 35 stocks, with Zhu Zhou Development, Fu Da Alloy, and Ningbo Zhong Bai rising by 3.19%, 3.06%, and 2.33% respectively [1][2] - The stocks with the highest net outflows included Chi Feng Gold, with a net outflow of 98.93 million yuan, followed by Hunan Gold and Xiao Cheng Technology with outflows of 92.45 million yuan and 61.23 million yuan respectively [1][2] Fund Flow Analysis - The gold concept sector saw significant fund outflows, with the top outflowing stocks including: - Chi Feng Gold: -1.37% with a turnover rate of 2.43% and a net outflow of 98.93 million yuan - Hunan Gold: -1.83% with a turnover rate of 2.52% and a net outflow of 92.45 million yuan - Xiao Cheng Technology: -2.54% with a turnover rate of 14.41% and a net outflow of 61.23 million yuan [1][2][3] - Conversely, the stocks with the highest net inflows included Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Zhu Zhou Development, and Beifang Copper, with net inflows of 48.97 million yuan, 16.71 million yuan, and 16.64 million yuan respectively [1][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [11]. Core Views - The report highlights that the recent announcement by Trump to impose tariffs on the EU has increased global economic uncertainty, which supports a bullish trend in gold prices. Central banks continue to purchase gold, indicating a sustained long-term bullish outlook [3]. - For copper and aluminum, while there is a short-term weakness in downstream operations, the long-term supply-demand dynamics are expected to remain tight, justifying a "Recommended" rating for both industries [11]. - Tin prices are expected to stabilize at a high level, with corporate profits projected to gradually increase, leading to a "Recommended" rating for the tin industry [11]. - Antimony prices are currently weak due to short-term demand decline, but long-term supply constraints are expected to support prices, hence a "Recommended" rating is maintained [11]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) showed a monthly performance increase of 3.1%, a quarterly increase of 4.3%, and a yearly increase of 3.5%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [1]. Macroeconomic Indicators - China's real estate development investment from January to April decreased by 10.3%, while the industrial added value in April grew by 6.1%, exceeding expectations [4][28]. - The U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI for May was reported at 52.3, significantly above the expected 49.9 [3][28]. Gold Market Data - The London gold price increased to $3342.65 per ounce, a rise of 3.48% from the previous week [32]. - SPDR Gold ETF holdings rose to 29.66 million ounces, an increase of 120,000 ounces [32]. Copper Market Data - LME copper closed at $9565 per ton, up by $52 from the previous week, while SHFE copper closed at 77,790 yuan per ton, down by 880 yuan [41]. - Domestic copper social inventory was reported at 139,900 tons, a decrease of 790 tons from the previous week [41]. Aluminum Market Data - Domestic electrolytic aluminum prices rose to 20,400 yuan per ton, an increase of 170 yuan [42]. - The operating rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises was reported at 56.0%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points [42]. Tin and Antimony Market Data - Domestic refined tin prices were reported at 265,070 yuan per ton, a slight decrease of 370 yuan [43]. - Antimony ingot prices were reported at 220,500 yuan per ton, down by 2,000 yuan [43].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic, with a recommendation to buy [3][19]. Core Insights - The report highlights the production elasticity and profit elasticity of electrolytic aluminum companies, indicating that profitability will be a key competitive factor due to fixed production capacity [8]. - The report predicts a decrease in the volatility of alumina prices in 2025, which will enhance the profitability of companies like Yun Aluminum, Shenhuo, and Tianshan [8]. - The report provides forecasts for gold production from listed companies, with specific attention to the CAGR of production from 2024 to 2027 [10][11]. Summary by Sections Copper Industry - The report includes production data and forecasts for major copper companies, emphasizing the importance of proprietary mining data [6]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The report details the production capacity and market valuation of various electrolytic aluminum companies, noting that the lowest market value per ton of aluminum is approximately 21,000 RMB [8][9]. Gold Industry - The report presents a forecast of self-produced gold output for listed companies, with specific figures for total gold resources and market capitalization [10][11]. Lithium Industry - The report outlines the lithium resource rights and production forecasts for several companies, highlighting significant growth rates for companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Yongxing Materials [12]. Uranium Industry - The report discusses the production forecasts for uranium companies, particularly focusing on China General Nuclear Power Corporation, with a projected CAGR of 8.16% from 2024 to 2027 [14][15].

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a pullback on Friday, with all three major indices turning negative, and the ChiNext index dropping over 1% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index also reversed its earlier gains, which had exceeded 1% [1] - A50 futures index saw a sharp decline, reporting a drop of 0.75% [3] Group 2 - Government bond futures turned upward across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.06%, the 10-year main contract up by 0.06%, the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.07%, and the 2-year main contract gaining 0.04% [5] - Gold prices surged, with New York gold futures rising by over 1%, while A-share gold stocks rallied, with Western Gold hitting the limit up, and other stocks like Xiaocheng Technology, Mankalon, Chifeng Gold, and Hunan Gold also seeing gains [5] Group 3 - U.S. President Trump urged the EU to reduce tariffs, warning of more tariffs if they do not comply [7] - Japanese Prime Minister discussed U.S. tariff measures with Trump, maintaining a stance on the removal of tariffs, and also addressed diplomatic and security issues [7] Group 4 - A significant policy briefing is scheduled for next Tuesday, where officials will discuss reforms and innovations in national-level economic and technological development zones [8]