证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 29 日 [Table_Title] Q1 业绩超预期，看好公司品牌力持续提升 [Table_Title2] 潮宏基(002345)2024 年度及 2025Q1 业绩点评 | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 002345 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 10.44/4.02 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 92.76 | | 最新收盘价： | 10.44 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 90.52 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 867.00 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 2024 年，公司实现营收 65.18 亿元/+10.48%，归母净利润 1.94 亿元/-41.91%，剔除商誉减值影响，归母净利 润 3.5 亿元/-5.11%。2025Q1，公司实现营收 22.52 亿元/+25.36%，归母净利润 1.89 亿元/+44.38%。同时，公 司拟向全体股东每 10 ...

Core Insights - Domestic gold jewelry brands have reported a decrease in the price of gold jewelry, with prices dropping by 6 yuan per gram to 1022 yuan per gram [1] Price Summary - Zhou Dasheng 999 gold jewelry: 1022 yuan per gram [5] - Caibai Jewelry 999 gold jewelry: 1008 yuan per gram [5] - Chao Hong Ji gold (jewelry ornaments): 1022 yuan per gram [5] - TSL Xie Rui Lang gold jewelry: 1022 yuan per gram [5] - Jin Zun gold 999: 1022 yuan per gram [5] - Zhou Liu Fu 999 gold jewelry: 1028 yuan per gram [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [5][14]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong product and brand power, with Q1 2025 profits exceeding expectations. The revenue for 2024 was 6.518 billion yuan, a 10.48% increase year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 194 million yuan, a decrease of 41.91% [1][9]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 7.909 billion yuan, 9.579 billion yuan, and 11.616 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of 491 million yuan, 599 million yuan, and 714 million yuan [4][14]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue breakdown by product was as follows: - Fashion jewelry: 2.970 billion yuan (45.56%, -0.63%) - Traditional gold: 2.949 billion yuan (45.25%, +30.21%) - Leather goods: 270 million yuan (4.14%, -27.38%) - Other products: 40 million yuan (0.61%, +12.58%) - Agency and franchise fees: 263 million yuan (4.04%, +22.84%) - Other business income: 26 million yuan (0.40%, +3.14%) [2][10]. Channel Performance - Revenue by channel in 2024 was as follows: - Self-operated: 3.017 billion yuan (46.29%, -7.40%) - Franchise: 3.284 billion yuan (50.38%, +32.35%) - Wholesale: 191 million yuan (2.93%, +41.31%) - Other business income: 26 million yuan (0.40%, +3.14%) [2][10]. Cost Management - The company achieved a sales expense ratio of 11.69% in 2024, a decrease of 2.35 percentage points, indicating improved cost management and operational efficiency [3][11]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 23.60%, down 2.47 percentage points, primarily due to the increased proportion of revenue from gold products and franchise channels [12][14]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 2.97%, a decrease of 2.68 percentage points [12]. Future Projections - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with significant increases in revenue and net profit projected for the next three years, reflecting its robust brand positioning and market expansion strategies [14].

Group 1 - Several gold jewelry listed companies reported mixed performance in Q1, with some companies like潮宏基 and 菜百股份 showing profit growth, while老凤祥 and 周大生 experienced significant declines [1] - 周大生's revenue from self-operated offline gold products decreased by 19.12% to 485 million yuan, and its e-commerce gold product revenue fell by 17.61% to 327 million yuan, with wholesale sales from franchisees dropping by 63.31% to 1.28 billion yuan [3] - 老凤祥 reported a decrease in revenue due to reduced sales from its subsidiaries and accelerated store closures, with a net reduction of 9 direct stores and 297 franchise stores in Q1 2025 [3] Group 2 - 潮宏基 and 菜百股份 did not provide detailed explanations for their revenue growth, but 菜百股份 noted a 30.18% increase in sales revenue attributed to market demand and consumer preferences [4] - 菜百股份 is focusing on a brand matrix that includes its main brand and sub-brands, and it plans to open 20 new chain stores in 2024 [5] - The gold jewelry industry is seeing a trend towards smaller, lighter, and more refined products, with consumers willing to pay a premium for items that align with personal aesthetics [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.52 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 194 million RMB, a decrease of 41.9% primarily due to goodwill impairment in the women's bag business. Excluding this impact, the net profit was 350 million RMB, down 5.1% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue reached 2.252 billion RMB, up 25.4%, with a net profit of 189 million RMB, an increase of 44.4% [1][2][3] - The company is expected to benefit from its young and fashionable brand positioning, leveraging unique craftsmanship and modern design to capture consumer interest. The brand has been recognized as one of China's 500 most valuable brands for 21 consecutive years [3][4] - The report projects an increase in net profit for 2025 and 2026 by 16% and 23% respectively, with a target price set at 11.80 RMB, based on a PE ratio of 21 times for 2025 [4][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's jewelry brand revenue and operating profit increased by 13.3% and 12.8% respectively, outpacing the 9.8% growth of the gold jewelry market. The self-operated revenue was 3.017 billion RMB, down 7.4%, while franchise revenue was 3.28 billion RMB, up 32.4% [2] - The overall gross margin decreased by 2.4 percentage points in 2024 and increased by 2.0 percentage points in Q1 2025, attributed to a higher proportion of lower-margin gold products. The expense ratio improved, leading to a net margin increase of 1.1 percentage points to 8.4% in Q1 2025 [2][3] Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 503.78 million RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 160%, and 610.28 million RMB in 2026, with a growth of 21.14% [6] - The report highlights a projected EPS of 0.57 RMB for 2025 and a ROE of 13.32% [6] Valuation - The target price of 11.80 RMB is based on a PE ratio of 21 times for 2025, reflecting the company's strong growth momentum driven by product and brand strength [4][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.52 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 194 million RMB, a decrease of 41.9% primarily due to goodwill impairment in the women's bag business. Excluding this impact, the net profit was 350 million RMB, down 5.1% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue reached 2.252 billion RMB, up 25.4%, with a net profit of 189 million RMB, an increase of 44.4% [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's jewelry brand revenue and operating profit increased by 13.3% and 12.8% respectively, outpacing the 9.8% growth of the gold jewelry market. The self-operated revenue was 3.017 billion RMB, down 7.4%, while franchise revenue was 3.28 billion RMB, up 32.4%. The overall gross margin decreased by 2.4 percentage points in 2024 and increased by 2.0 percentage points in Q1 2025, driven by improved expense efficiency [2][3] Brand Positioning - The company targets the young demographic aged 25-40, integrating Eastern culture with modern fashion. Its unique craftsmanship and design align with consumer willingness to pay for quality, especially in a high gold price environment. Collaborations with popular IPs are expected to enhance average transaction values and mitigate gold price volatility risks [3][4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 16% and 23% to 500 million RMB and 610 million RMB respectively. The target price is set at 11.80 RMB, based on a 21x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting strong growth momentum due to enhanced product and brand strength [4][8]

广东潮宏基实业股份有限公司 审 计 报 告 华兴审字[2025]24012370011 号 华兴会计师事务所（特殊普通合伙） w 审 计 报 告 华兴审字[2025]24012370011号 广东潮宏基实业股份有限公司全体股东： 一、审计意见 我们审计了广东潮宏基实业股份有限公司（以下简称"潮宏基"）财务报 表，包括2024年12月31日的合并及母公司资产负债表，2024年度的合并及母公 司利润表、合并及母公司现金流量表、合并及母公司股东权益变动表以及相关 财务报表附注。 我们认为，后附的财务报表在所有重大方面按照企业会计准则的规定编 制，公允反映了潮宏基2024年12月31日的合并及母公司财务状况以及2024年 度的合并及母公司经营成果和现金流量。 二、形成审计意见的基础 我们按照中国注册会计师审计准则的规定执行了审计工作。审计报告的 "注册会计师对财务报表审计的责任"部分进一步阐述了我们在这些准则下 的责任。按照中国注册会计师职业道德守则，我们独立于潮宏基，并履行了职 业道德方面的其他责任。我们相信，我们获取的审计证据是充分、适当的，为 发表审计意见提供了基础。 三、关键审计事项 关键审计事项是我们根据职 ...

广东潮宏基实业股份有限公司 内部控制审计报告 华兴审字[2025]24012370031 号 华兴会计师事务所（特殊普通合伙） 华兴审字[2025]24012370031号 w 内部控制审计报告 广东潮宏基实业股份有限公司全体股东： 按照《企业内部控制审计指引》及中国注册会计师执业准则的相关要求， 我们审计了广东潮宏基实业股份有限公司（以下简称"潮宏基"）2024年12 月31日的财务报告内部控制的有效性。 一、企业对内部控制的责任 按照《企业内部控制基本规范》、《企业内部控制应用指引》、《企业 内部控制评价指引》的规定，建立健全和有效实施内部控制，并评价其有效 性是潮宏基董事会的责任。 二、注册会计师的责任 我们的责任是在实施审计工作的基础上，对财务报告内部控制的有效性 发表审计意见，并对注意到的非财务报告内部控制的重大缺陷进行披露。 三、内部控制的固有局限性 内部控制具有固有局限性，存在不能防止和发现错报的可能性。此外， 由于情况的变化可能导致内部控制变得不恰当，或对控制政策和程序遵循的 程度降低，根据内部控制审计结果推测未来内部控制的有效性具有一定风险。 1 四、财务报告内部控制审计意见 我们认为，潮宏 ...

广东潮宏基实业股份有限公司 2024年度独立董事林天海述职报告 作为广东潮宏基实业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）的独立董事，在2024 年度任职期间（2024年1月1日至2024年11月22日），本人严格按照《公司法》、 《上市公司独立董事管理办法》、《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第1 号—主板上市公司规范运作》以及《公司章程》、公司《独立董事制度》等有关 法律、法规的规定和要求，恪守独立董事职责，勤勉尽责地参与公司治理，对公 司经营发展提供专业、客观的建议，切实维护公司及全体股东的合法权益。现将 本人2024年任期内履职情况汇报如下： 一、本人的基本情况 在担任公司独立董事期间，本人符合《上市公司独立董事管理办法》、《深 圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第1号—主板上市公司规范运作》等有关法 律法规中对独立董事独立性的相关要求，能够独立、公正地履行职责，未受上市 公司及其主要股东、实际控制人等单位或者个人的影响，不存在影响独立性的情 况。 二、年度履职概况 （一）出席董事会、股东大会情况 1 2024年度，公司共召开了5次董事会，2次股东大会。在本人任职期间，应出 席董事会4次，本人均亲自出席了全部 ...

本人廖朝理，经济学硕士，中国注册会计师、注册税务师、高级会计师。受 聘担任广东省财政厅及佛山市南海区财政局的预结算评审专家、广东省政府采购 评审专家及广东省经信委省级技术中心项目评审专家，曾任天健正信会计师事务 所有限公司和立信会计师事务所（特殊普通合伙）的合伙人。现任信永中和会计 师事务所（特殊普通合伙）合伙人，广东金马游乐股份有限公司独立董事。2018 年11月6日起至2024年11月22日任公司独立董事。 （二）独立性自查情况说明 广东潮宏基实业股份有限公司 2024年度独立董事廖朝理述职报告 作为广东潮宏基实业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）的独立董事，在2024 年度任职期间（2024年1月1日至2024年11月22日），本人严格按照《公司法》、 《上市公司独立董事管理办法》、《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第1 号—主板上市公司规范运作》以及《公司章程》、公司《独立董事制度》等有关 法律、法规的规定和要求，恪守独立董事职责，勤勉尽责地参与公司治理，对公 司经营发展提供专业、客观的建议，切实维护公司及全体股东的合法权益。现将 本人2024年任期内履职情况汇报如下： 一、本人的基本情况 （一）个人 ...