潮宏基发布业绩预告，公司预计2025年归属于上市公司股东的净利润为43,571.09万元-53,253.56万元， 同比增长125%-175%。 ...

2、业绩预告情况：预计净利润为正值且属于同向上升 50%以上情形 （1）以区间数进行业绩预告的 单位：万元 | 项 | 目 | | | 本报告期 | | | 上年同期 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司 股东的净利润 | | | | 43,571.09 | ～ | 53,253.56 | 19,364.93 | | | | | | 比上年同期增长 | 125% | ～ | 175% | | | | 扣除非经常性损 益后的净利润 | | | | 42,133.01 | ～ | 51,495.90 | 18,725.78 | | | | | | 比上年同期增长 | 125% | ～ | 175% | | | | 基 本 每 收 | 股 | 益 | | 0.49 | ～ | 0.60 | | 0.22 | | （元/股） | | | | | | | | | 二、与会计师事务所沟通情况 证券代码：002345 证券简称：潮宏基 公告编号：2026-001 广东潮宏基实业股份有限公司 2025年度业绩预告 本公司及董 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperforming the Market" [4] Core Insights - The probiotic market in China is expected to exceed 140 billion CNY by 2025, with a CAGR of 12.4% from 2019 to 2024 [11][12] - The second-generation probiotics, such as AKK strains, show significant advantages over first-generation probiotics, which are primarily preventive and transient [12][13] - The competitive landscape indicates that leading brands are facing pressure, while second and third-tier brands are rising, particularly through online channels [15][20] Summary by Sections Probiotic Market Overview - The C-end probiotic market in China is projected to grow from 647.7 billion CNY in 2018 to 1188.5 billion CNY in 2023, with a CAGR of 12.4% [11] - The gastrointestinal probiotic market is expected to reach 310 billion CNY by 2024, with a CAGR of 12% from 2019 to 2024 [11] Competitive Landscape - Leading brands like WonderLab and Life Space have seen a slight decline in market share, with WonderLab's GMV on Tmall and Douyin at 1.36 billion CNY in 2025, down 4.5% year-on-year [15] - Second and third-tier brands, such as Jiangzhong and Purmeo, have gained market share, increasing by over 2% [15] - The product offerings are evolving from basic probiotics to "probiotic+" series, indicating a shift towards more complex formulations [20] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends companies with strong organizational structures and management capabilities in the beauty care sector, such as Maogeping and Shangmei [28] - In the gold and jewelry sector, it suggests focusing on brands with strong pricing power and craftsmanship, recommending Laopu Gold and Chaohongji [28] - For the cross-border e-commerce sector, it highlights the potential of companies like Xiaoshangpin City and Jiaodian Technology due to easing trade conflicts and AI integration [28]

Core Insights - The consumer market in 2026 shows a clear trend towards "value for money," where consumers prioritize emotional value, practicality, and preservation over mere functionality [1] - The collaboration between skincare brand Kefu Mei and jewelry brand Chao Hong Ji has resulted in a customized New Year gift box that combines functional skincare with emotional and collectible gold jewelry [1][3] Group 1: Product Innovation - The gift box features 60 Kefu Mei collagen sticks, each with different blessings, and a gold horse-shaped ornament from Chao Hong Ji, symbolizing good fortune and prosperity [1][4] - This is the first time Kefu Mei has integrated functional skincare products with emotionally valuable gold jewelry, targeting the light luxury consumer segment and the gift market [1][4] Group 2: Strategic Significance - The choice to incorporate gold is based on a deep understanding of the current economic environment and consumer psychology, as gold serves as a "hard currency" that provides value stability and anti-inflation properties [3] - This strategy transcends traditional holiday marketing, offering a dual financial and emotional value proposition for Kefu Mei's skincare products [3] Group 3: Brand Collaboration - Chao Hong Ji's craftsmanship and brand reputation provide strong quality assurance for Kefu Mei, enhancing the emotional significance of the gift box [4] - The gold ornament embodies traditional cultural values, transforming the functional aspect of the collagen sticks into a heartfelt wish for enduring friendship and well-being [4] Group 4: Marketing Strategy - The emotional TV commercial featuring Li Jiaqi and his mother deepens the emotional connection, elevating the product from a mere skincare tool to a medium of intergenerational love [6] - This marketing approach not only enhances the emotional attributes of the product but also resonates with the cultural phenomenon of "young people managing the New Year" [6] Group 5: Commercial Value Logic - The combination of collagen sticks and gold jewelry reflects a complementary value logic, addressing consumer concerns about practicality and emotional significance in gift-giving [8][9] - The design of 60 collagen sticks ensures high usage frequency, while the gold ornament adds asset value, creating a dual certainty of utility and emotional connection for gift-givers [9] Group 6: Market Segmentation - Kefu Mei's innovative practice has successfully opened a new niche market that bridges beauty, light luxury jewelry, and gifting, characterized by high certainty in expressing intentions [10] - This collaboration creates a threefold value unit of "daily usability," "emotional significance," and "asset value," addressing the utility anxiety in gift-giving scenarios [10] Group 7: Industry Implications - The trend of consumer upgrading indicates that purely functional products can no longer meet diverse consumer needs, necessitating cross-industry collaboration and scene innovation for value breakthroughs [11] - Kefu Mei's approach demonstrates that functional brands can expand emotional and cultural value while maintaining professionalism, potentially defining the next consumer paradigm [11]

Core Viewpoint - The gold jewelry market is experiencing a price surge, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Chao Hong Ji announcing significant price increases for their products as the new year begins [3][18]. Price Increases - Chow Sang Sang has recently raised prices on certain gold jewelry items, with increases ranging from 200 to 1500 yuan [18]. - Chao Hong Ji is set to implement its first price adjustment of the year next week, with some popular items seeing price hikes of nearly 20,000 yuan [3][12]. - For example, a specific necklace from the "Sheng Sheng You Xi" series has increased by 15,200 yuan, reflecting a significant price trend over the past year [6][11]. Historical Price Trends - The "Sheng Sheng You Xi" series necklace, weighing 53.1 grams, now costs 2,560 yuan per gram, marking a nearly 100,000 yuan increase over the past year and a sevenfold increase over the last decade [6]. - A buyer who purchased a similar necklace in April 2024 for 45,000 yuan noted the drastic price changes, while another buyer from around 2016 reported an initial price of 20,000 yuan [6]. Market Dynamics - As of January 9, major gold jewelry brands are reporting prices close to 1,400 yuan per gram, with Chow Sang Sang and Chao Hong Ji pricing at 1,398 yuan per gram [18][21]. - The international gold price has seen a strong start to 2026, with a nearly 200 USD increase in the first three trading days, reaching 4,500.640 USD per ounce [21]. Consumer Sentiment - There is a growing perception among consumers that gold jewelry is increasingly becoming a luxury item [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Shenzhou International, with specific price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for FY2026 [9][30]. Core Insights - Fast Retailing's FY2026 Q1 results exceeded expectations, with revenue increasing by 14.8% to 1,027.7 billion JPY, operating profit up 31% to 205.6 billion JPY, and net profit rising 11.7% to 147.4 billion JPY. The company has revised its FY2026 earnings forecast, expecting revenue growth of 11.7% to 3,800 billion JPY and operating profit growth of 17.9% to 650 billion JPY [1][12]. - The sports footwear and apparel sector shows strong resilience amid a volatile environment, with long-term growth potential. Recommended stocks include Anta Sports and Li Ning, with current PE ratios of 14 and 18, respectively [3][18]. - The apparel manufacturing sector is expected to see improved orders in 2026, with recommendations for Shenzhou International and Huayi Group, which are entering a capacity release cycle [3][30]. Summary by Sections Weekly Topic - Fast Retailing's FY2026 Q1 report shows significant growth across all regions, particularly in the Uniqlo division, which has seen revenue and operating profit increases [1][12]. Weekly Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the resilience of the sports footwear and apparel sector, recommending high-quality stocks such as Anta Sports and Li Ning, while also highlighting the potential for recovery in manufacturing stocks like Shenzhou International and Huayi Group [3][18]. Weekly Market Performance - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the market, with the textile manufacturing sector up 2.9% and brand apparel up 2.88% [22]. Recent Reports - The report anticipates stable retail demand in 2025, with a focus on the performance of key companies in the textile and apparel sector [27][28]. Key Company Announcements - The report includes updates on share buybacks and other corporate actions from companies like Jian Sheng Group, indicating ongoing strategic financial management [31]. Industry News - ASICS and FILA have launched new marketing campaigns, reflecting the industry's focus on brand engagement and consumer connection [32]. Raw Material Trends - Cotton prices have shown a year-on-year increase, with domestic cotton prices higher than international prices, indicating potential cost pressures for manufacturers [33][34].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the successful IPO of Shaanxi Tourism, which leverages its rich tourism resources and strong operational experience to build competitive advantages through a combination of performance-driven tourism, cable car operations, and dining services [22][24][34] - The report emphasizes the resilience of the cultural tourism industry amid ongoing trends to expand domestic demand and promote consumption, suggesting that Shaanxi Tourism's future growth will be supported by new performance projects and cable car capacity upgrades [36] Summary by Sections Retail and Social Services Market Review - The retail and social services indices rose by 4.23% and 4.71% respectively during the week of January 5 to January 9, 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 3.82% [12][14] - Among the sub-sectors, the supermarket segment showed the highest growth, with an increase of 8.18% year-to-date [15][17] Industry Dynamics: Shaanxi Tourism - Shaanxi Tourism, a leading regional tourism company, successfully listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on January 6, 2026, becoming the first A-share listed company of the year [22] - The company reported significant revenue contributions from its tourism performance and cable car operations, with a net profit margin and gross profit margin remaining high post-pandemic [24][27] - Revenue breakdown for the first half of 2025 shows that tourism performance accounted for 60.2%, cable car operations for 35.8%, and dining services for 4.0% [24] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-end gold and fashion jewelry brands, highlighting companies like Chow Tai Fook and Chao Hong Ji, which are expected to benefit from market trends [39] - It also suggests monitoring offline retail companies adapting to market changes and AI-enabled cross-border e-commerce leaders, with specific recommendations for Yonghui Supermarket and Aiying Room [39] - In the cosmetics sector, the report emphasizes brands that capture emotional value and innovate with safe ingredients, recommending companies like Mao Ge Ping and Proya [40]

Group 1 - The international gold price is reported at $4509.3 per ounce, while palladium is at $1815.5 per ounce and silver at $79.9 per ounce as of January 11 [1] - Domestic gold prices are quoted at ¥1011.5 per gram [1] Group 2 - Major domestic gold retailers have varying prices, with Chow Sang Sang at ¥1410 per gram being the highest and China Gold at ¥1372 per gram being the lowest [1] - Other notable prices include: - Chow Tai Fook, Liufuk Jewelry, and King of Gold all at ¥1406 per gram - Lao Miao at ¥1407 per gram - Lao Feng Xiang at ¥1399 per gram - Zhou Sixi at ¥1391 per gram [1]

Price Adjustments in Jewelry Industry - The price of the "Sheng Sheng You Xi" series pearl four-leaf clover necklace by Chow Sang Sang was raised to 136,000 yuan from 120,800 yuan, an increase of 15,200 yuan in just one day [1] - The necklace weighs 53.1 grams, resulting in a new price of 2,560 yuan per gram, and has seen an increase of nearly 100,000 yuan over the past year, and approximately 7 times over the last decade [8] - Chow Sang Sang's price adjustments are attributed to rising material costs, design fees, and patent fees due to the increase in gold prices [5] Market Trends and Future Projections - The international gold price has been on a significant upward trend, with February gold futures reaching $4,500.90 per ounce, reflecting a 0.90% increase [12] - Analysts predict that gold prices will continue to rise, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a price of $4,900 per ounce by 2026, driven by strong demand from central banks [13] - The World Gold Council's report outlines four potential scenarios for the gold market in 2026, ranging from a 5% decrease to a 30% increase in gold prices depending on economic conditions [14] Competitor Price Changes - Other brands, such as Chow Tai Fook, are also expected to raise prices, with some products seeing increases of nearly 20,000 yuan [10] - Store employees have confirmed that price adjustments will take effect on January 15, indicating a broader trend in the jewelry market [10]

Group 1 - Chowsang Sang's "Sheng Sheng You Xi" series pearl four-leaf clover necklace price increased to 136,000 yuan from 120,800 yuan, a rise of 15,200 yuan in one day [1][3] - The price increase is attributed to rising material costs, design fees, and patent fees due to soaring gold prices [3] - The necklace weighs 53.1 grams, resulting in a price of 2,560 yuan per gram after the increase, and has appreciated nearly 100,000 yuan over the past year, with a sevenfold increase over ten years [4] Group 2 - A buyer reported purchasing the same necklace for 45,000 yuan in April 2024, while another buyer acquired it for 20,000 yuan around 2016 [5] - Another jewelry brand, Chao Hong Ji, is also set to raise prices, with a popular item seeing an increase of nearly 20,000 yuan [9][11] - As of January 9, gold prices approached 1,400 yuan per gram, with several brands, including Chowsang Sang and Chow Tai Fook, reporting prices of 1,392 yuan per gram, up from 1,376 yuan [14]