马年新春前夕，一场关于时尚非遗与新年祥瑞的对话，在合肥城市地标万象城内启幕。品牌于合肥以全 新"花丝世家"主题概念空间落地，重磅揭幕由非遗花丝镶嵌与合肥国家级非遗"三河羽扇"的共创艺术 品，展现了一场融合匠心、美学与节日仪式的立体叙事。 活动当日，品牌代言人宋轶以一袭新中式礼服搭配潮宏基非遗花丝首饰优雅亮相，在万众瞩目下为非遗 花丝与非遗羽扇共创艺术品"金翎合扇"揭幕。社交平台相关话题热度高涨，活动总曝光突破2亿，全网 总互动量超30万，#宋轶人比花娇、#宋轶鎏金女神 等4个相关话题登上微博、抖音双平台热搜，带动品 牌声量持续攀升。活动现场，宋轶通过趣味游戏将承载新春祝福的"潮宏基五福马串珠"赠予现场幸运来 宾，不仅传递出珍贵的心意，更将"五福驾到，好运报道"的节日祝福，化为随身陪伴的温暖寓意。此次 活动亦转化为扎实的销售助推力：合肥万象城门店当日销售同比飙升1775%，成功将文化热度转化为消 费认同。 新春前夕，辞旧迎新之际，人们既有对过去一年的疲惫进行释放的冲动，也有对未来一年寄予美好期待 的集体无意识。消费，尤其是对"新装备"的消费，就成为这种心理最直接的出口。潮宏基精准地抓住了 这一情绪刚需，并为其注 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that while current gold price fluctuations have a short-term emotional impact on the sector, the fundamental effects are expected to remain stable due to a shift in industry growth logic towards brand building, process innovation, and cultural narrative capabilities, leading to "α returns" [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Historical reference to the 2013 gold price correction suggests that it led to a surge in investment purchases, which may support further short-term performance growth for companies focused on investment gold business [1] - The jewelry sector is entering a consumption peak season at year-end, with overall valuations in the sector at low levels, indicating that short-term gold price fluctuations have not affected the growth logic of core leading companies [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Companies with price advantage and strong operational capabilities in Hong Kong and Macau, as well as leading firms with good product design or differentiated capabilities, are expected to continue strengthening their business advantages and achieve sustained high growth [1] - Companies with a high proportion of investment gold business and those offering fixed-price products are likely to maintain stable growth [1] Group 3: Recommendations - Recommended companies include Caibai Co., Luk Fook Holdings, Laopuhuangjin, Chow Tai Fook, and Chaohongji, which are positioned to benefit from the current market dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the similarities between the current gold price fluctuations and the "gold rush" of 2013, emphasizing the impact on consumer behavior and industry growth dynamics [1][2][3] Group 1: Historical Context and Market Response - In April 2013, a significant drop in gold prices led to a surge in gold product purchases, with retail sales growth in gold and jewelry reaching 72.16% [2][5] - The "gold rush" phenomenon resulted in substantial annual performance improvements for companies like Luk Fook Holdings, which reported a revenue increase of 43.3% and a net profit growth of 50% in the fiscal year following the price drop [7] - The subsequent decline in gold prices from 2013 to 2015 led to a demand pullback, with retail sales growth slowing to 0.04% in 2014, indicating a potential consumption overhang from the previous buying spree [8] Group 2: Current Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The current gold price fluctuations are characterized by a prolonged price increase before the recent downturn, suggesting a similar initial consumer enthusiasm as seen in 2013 [3][4] - The current investment demand is driven by long-term asset allocation and wealth preservation rather than short-term speculative buying, as evidenced by the growth in investment gold products [9][10] - Companies with strong product differentiation and branding, such as Lao Pu Gold and Chow Tai Fook, have shown resilience and growth despite high gold prices, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards quality and cultural narratives [10][11] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that can leverage the current market conditions, such as Cai Bai Co., which combines investment gold bars and jewelry, and Luk Fook Holdings, which has competitive advantages in pricing and operations [4][12] - Companies with strong product design and differentiation capabilities, like Lao Pu Gold and Chao Hong Ji, are also recommended for investment due to their ability to achieve significant growth in a challenging market environment [12]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Gold and Jewelry Industry Industry Overview - The focus is on the gold and jewelry industry, particularly the investment opportunities amidst fluctuating gold prices [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of Gold Price Decline** - The recent drop in gold prices does not affect the long-term logic of the gold and jewelry sector. The business model relies on brand fees linked to annual sales, which provides a stable cash flow that is not significantly impacted by short-term gold price fluctuations [1]. 2. **Gold Price Trends** - The gold price in Shanghai reached a high of 800 yuan in April 2025 and 1250 yuan in January 2026, before falling to approximately 1050 yuan at the end of January 2026. As long as the price does not drop below 800 yuan, the long-term fundamentals of the gold and jewelry market remain intact, presenting potential buying opportunities during price volatility [1]. 3. **Direct Sales vs. Franchise Models** - Direct sales companies such as Cai Bai Co., Lao Pu Gold, Liufu Group, and Chow Sang Sang are more directly affected by gold price changes, with short-term sales impacting profits. For instance, Cai Bai Co.'s performance forecast for 2025 exceeded expectations due to the gold price being 995 yuan at the end of 2025 [1]. - Franchise models like Chow Tai Fook, Chow Tai Sheng, Lao Feng Xiang, and others typically reflect consumer demand recovery after gold price changes, which may take 3-5 quarters. Currently, these franchise companies are at lower stock price levels, indicating more certain investment opportunities [2]. 4. **Comparison with Gold Mining Companies** - Gold jewelry companies have significantly better cash flow compared to gold mining companies. For example, the dividend payout ratios since listing are 88% for Chow Tai Fook, 58% for Chow Tai Sheng, and 60% for Cai Bai Co., while mining companies like Shandong Gold, Chifeng Gold, and Hunan Gold have much lower ratios of 21%, 5%, and 19% respectively [2]. - There is a time lag in stock price reactions; gold mining stocks respond immediately to gold price increases, while jewelry companies show delayed responses [2]. 5. **Market Reactions and Opportunities** - The recent drop in gold prices may lead to panic selling in the market. However, the long-term business model advantages remain unchanged, and adjustments in stock prices may present buying opportunities. Companies in the direct sales model are expected to benefit if gold prices do not fall significantly below 1000 yuan [2][3]. 6. **Franchise Model Resilience** - Franchise brands will also benefit as long as gold prices do not drop below 800 yuan, with gradual performance improvements expected even in a fluctuating market [3]. Additional Important Insights - The analysis emphasizes the resilience of the gold and jewelry sector against short-term price fluctuations and highlights the importance of understanding different business models within the industry for investment decisions [1][2][3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of HBN, a leading domestic skincare brand, which has submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating strong growth potential in the efficacy skincare market [3][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and recommends high-quality companies in high-growth sectors, including gold and jewelry, offline retail, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics [6][49] Summary by Sections Retail and Social Services Market Review - For the week of January 26 to January 30, the retail and social services indices closed at 2435.34 points and 9283.84 points, respectively, with declines of 4.18% and 3.45% [5][14] - The jewelry sector showed the highest growth, with a weekly increase of 7.07% and a year-to-date increase of 19.39% [15][18] Industry Dynamics: HBN and Efficacy Skincare - HBN, established in 2019, is the largest domestic skincare brand in the efficacy segment, focusing on visible results and innovative product strategies [24][25] - The brand's core products, including the "A Retinol" series, have achieved significant sales milestones, with a strong emphasis on scientific validation and consumer trust [29][33] Investment Recommendations - Investment focus areas include: - Gold and jewelry brands with differentiated product offerings, recommending companies like Laopuhuang and Chaohongji [6][49] - Offline retail companies adapting to market changes, with recommendations for Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [6][49] - Domestic cosmetics brands that emphasize emotional value and safety, recommending brands like Maogeping and Proya [6][50] - Medical aesthetics firms with unique product lines, recommending Meilitiantian Medical Health and Aimeike [6][51]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The retail sector is expected to show varied performance in Q4 2025, with significant growth in certain segments like gold and jewelry, while others like supermarkets and department stores are projected to decline [1][2][4] - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming Spring Festival season, suggesting that sectors with performance elasticity, such as duty-free shops and certain tourist attractions, should be closely monitored [9] - The report emphasizes the potential of AI applications in enhancing e-commerce marketing, indicating a shift towards new retail strategies [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook - Gold and Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% in Q4 2025 - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% in Q4 2025 - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 1.2 to 2.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit growth of 150% to 254% in Q4 2025 - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion in Q4 2025, compared to a loss of 1.03 billion in the same period last year [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30% in Q4 2025, with adjusted net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarkets and Department Stores - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a decline of 22.4% year-on-year, with a projected drop of 92.5% in Q4 2025 - Wangfujing: Expected net profit loss of 0.45 to 0.23 billion, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% in Q4 2025 - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a net profit growth rate of -3.1% in Q4 2025 - Home Home Joy: Expected net profit of 198 to 228 million, with a growth rate of 50.1% to 72.8% in Q4 2025 [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% in Q4 2025 - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% in Q4 2025 - Su Mei Da: Expected net profit of 1.355 billion, with a growth rate of 70.8% in Q4 2025 [3] Social Services Sector Outlook - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% in Q4 2025 - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% in Q4 2025 - Jiuhua Tourism: Expected net profit growth of 0% to 15% in Q4 2025 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with performance elasticity during the Spring Festival, including duty-free, certain tourist attractions, and gold and jewelry [9] - For 2026, the report suggests looking at service consumption and product consumption, particularly in duty-free and travel chains, as well as undervalued segments with improving fundamentals [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sub-sectors with performance elasticity during the upcoming Spring Festival peak season, including duty-free, certain scenic spots, supermarkets, and gold jewelry [9] - It suggests that the recent fundamentals of duty-free and travel chains have improved, warranting ongoing observation and validation [9] - For 2026, the report recommends focusing on service consumption and product consumption, particularly in the duty-free and travel chain sectors, as well as the gold jewelry sector and Miniso, which have high valuation attractiveness [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Gold Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 436 million to 533 million, a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion, corresponding to a growth of 150% to 254% - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion, primarily due to asset impairment provisions [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30%, with adjusted operating profit and net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarket and Department Store Outlook for Q4 2025 - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.4% - Wangfujing: Expected net profit of -45 million to -23 million, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a growth rate of -3.1% - Jiajiayue: Expected net profit of 198 million to 228 million, growth of 50.1% to 72.8% - Hongqi Chain: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 0% [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce Outlook for Q4 2025 - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% - Saiwei Times: Expected net profit of 90 million to 130 million - Huakai Yibai: Expected net profit of 80 million to 110 million, driven by improved operational efficiency [3] Social Services Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% - Tianmu Lake: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 5% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Small Commodity City, China Duty-Free, Huazhu Group, Shoulu Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, Chao Hong Ji, Jiuhua Tourism, Ruoyu Chen, Qingmu Technology, and Miniso, while also keeping an eye on other companies with potential [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of HBN, a leading domestic skincare brand, which has submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating strong growth potential in the efficacy skincare market [3][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and suggests focusing on high-quality companies in high-growth sectors [6][49] Summary by Sections Industry Performance Overview - The commercial retail and social services indices reported declines of 4.18% and 3.45% respectively during the week of January 26 to January 30, 2026, ranking 26th and 23rd among 31 primary industries [5][14] - The jewelry sector showed the highest growth, with a weekly increase of 7.07% and a year-to-date increase of 19.39% [15][18] Key Industry Developments - HBN, established in 2019, is recognized as the largest domestic skincare brand in the efficacy skincare segment, with a market share of 0.8% in the Chinese improvement skincare market as of 2024 [24][25] - HBN's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 1.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, with high-efficacy skincare products accounting for 78.6% of total revenue [29] Investment Recommendations - Investment Theme 1: Focus on high-end gold and fashion jewelry brands, recommending companies like Laopuhuangjin and Chaohongji [6][49] - Investment Theme 2: Highlighting retail companies that adapt to emotional value and intelligent trends, with recommendations for Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [6][49] - Investment Theme 3: Emphasizing beauty and personal care brands that innovate with emotional value and safe ingredients, recommending brands like Maogeping and Pola [6][50] - Investment Theme 4: Targeting differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers and leading medical beauty institutions, recommending companies like Aimeike and Meilitiantian [6][51]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the gold jewelry sector, indicating that consumer enthusiasm remains strong despite fluctuations in gold prices, particularly during the Chinese New Year [10][24]. Core Insights - On January 30, gold prices experienced significant volatility, yet consumer interest in Lao Pu gold stores remained high, showcasing the brand's growing influence [10]. - Promotional activities at Lao Pu gold stores and SKP malls are expected to sustain high-end gold brand consumption during the Spring Festival, with various discounts and gifts driving consumer demand [10]. - Lao Pu gold's fixed-price model contrasts with competitors that price by weight, leading to stronger consumer expectations for price increases, thus insulating the brand from gold price fluctuations [10]. - The report highlights that despite a drop in gold prices at the end of January 2026, certain Lao Pu stores in Shanghai and Beijing continued to see long queues, indicating strong brand appeal during price volatility [10]. Industry Data Tracking - According to Guojin Digital Future Lab, the overall GMV for Tmall and JD.com in the fourth week of December increased by 49.2% year-on-year [11]. - The top five categories in terms of growth during this period were books and audio-visual products, automotive and bicycles, watches, toys, and shoes and bags [11]. Market Review - For the week of January 26 to January 30, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index recorded changes of -0.44%, -1.62%, 0.08%, 2.38%, and -1.38% respectively, while the retail sector saw a gain of 4.18% [17]. - Notable stock performances included *ST Huike, Yiyaton, Yiwan Yichuang, Yuyuan Co., and Kaichun Co., which saw gains attributed to AI application catalysts [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on cross-border e-commerce, particularly companies with strong brand power and product differentiation, which are expected to show resilience in performance [24]. - In the gold jewelry sector, the report anticipates that consumer enthusiasm will remain strong despite high baseline figures in January, with same-store growth expected to continue [24]. - The report highlights the potential for companies like Chao Hong Ji, which is expected to benefit from new product launches and an increase in self-produced products, driving profitability [24]. - The duty-free sector is also noted for its potential growth, particularly with the launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port, which is expected to significantly impact local and national duty-free businesses [24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the textile and apparel industry, including Li Ning, Anta Sports, Shenzhou International, and others [9][21][29]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing a low overall fund holding ratio, with a total market value of approximately 9.76 billion yuan at the end of Q4 2025, slightly down from 10.31 billion yuan at the end of Q3 2025. However, the proportion of heavy holdings increased from 0.13% to 0.25% [1][12]. - The report highlights the resilience of the sports footwear and apparel sector, predicting it will outperform the broader apparel market in the long term. Companies like Li Ning and Anta Sports are expected to manage inventory effectively and benefit from upcoming marketing initiatives [2][17]. - The report emphasizes the healthy inventory levels in the industry, anticipating that stable replenishment from downstream will lead to increased orders for upstream manufacturers [3][18]. - The report suggests focusing on quality stocks with stable growth or potential for performance reversal, particularly in the brand apparel segment, where companies like HLA and Luolai Living are highlighted for their growth prospects [4][19]. Summary by Sections Fund Position Analysis - The textile and apparel sector's fund holding ratio remains low, with significant increases in holdings across sub-sectors such as home textiles, textile manufacturing, and accessories [1][12][15]. Market Performance - The textile and apparel sector underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with declines noted in both textile manufacturing and brand apparel segments [24][25]. Key Company Recommendations - Li Ning is recommended due to its expected brand strength during the Olympic cycle, with projected profits of 2.74 billion yuan in 2025 and a growth forecast for 2026 [2][17]. - Anta Sports is highlighted for its strong operational capabilities, with expected profits of 13.2 billion yuan in 2025 and growth in 2026 [2][17]. - Shenzhou International is recommended for its cost-effectiveness and positive customer trends, with a projected PE ratio of 11 times for 2026 [3][18]. - HLA is expected to see stable profit growth, with a projected PE ratio of 12 times for 2026 [4][19].