Stock Recommendations - 运机集团 (001288.SZ) has a strong order backlog and is expected to increase performance as production capacity ramps up[3] - 道通科技 (688208.SH) reported a 19.59% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, with a net profit growth of 57.48%[3] - 拓普集团 (601689.SH) is a core supplier for Tesla and Huawei, indicating significant growth potential[3] - 中钨高新 (000657.SZ) is enhancing its tungsten self-sufficiency through quality mine acquisitions, with tungsten prices expected to remain high[3] - 巨人网络 (002558.SZ) achieved a net profit of 1.417 billion yuan in Q3 2025, up 32.31% year-on-year[3] - 潮宏基 (002345.SZ) saw an 81.54% profit growth in Q3 after excluding goodwill impairment[4] Market Performance - The 国元金股组合 achieved a weighted return of 3.45% in November 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 1.67%[11] - The best-performing stock in the portfolio was 巨人网络, with a return of 17.24%[11] - 中钨高新 had the highest increase in stock price over the past month, rising by 19.16%[18] Risk Factors - Economic recovery and policy support may fall short of expectations, posing risks to the market[5] - Individual companies may face operational risks that could impact performance[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail trade industry, particularly focusing on the gold and jewelry sector [1]. Core Insights - The demand for gold and jewelry is expected to recover significantly, driven by a stable increase in gold prices since 2025 and a rebound in overall consumer spending [1][14]. - Major listed companies in the gold and jewelry sector are currently valued at historically low levels, with strong cash flow quality and dividend capabilities, making them attractive investment opportunities [1][14]. - Key recommended stocks include Zhou Dasheng, Lao Fengxiang, Chao Hong Ji, Cai Bai Co., China Gold, and Hong Kong stocks such as Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook Holdings [1][14]. Summary by Sections Industry Viewpoint - The report highlights the significant recovery in the performance of leading Hong Kong gold and jewelry companies, Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook Holdings, in FY26H1, with Chow Tai Fook reporting revenue of HKD 38.986 billion (down 1.1% YoY) and net profit of HKD 2.534 billion (up 0.1% YoY) [5][10]. - Luk Fook Holdings achieved revenue of HKD 6.843 billion (up 25.6% YoY) and net profit of HKD 619 million (up 42.52% YoY) in the same period [5][10]. - The same-store sales for both companies in mainland China showed significant recovery, with Chow Tai Fook's same-store sales up 2.6% YoY in FY26H1 [11]. Profitability - The increase in gold prices and adjustments in product mix have positively impacted profitability, with Chow Tai Fook maintaining a gross margin of 30.5% and Luk Fook achieving a record high gross margin of 34.7% [12][12]. - Both companies have shown improvements in their expense ratios, contributing to enhanced profitability [12]. Market Trends - The report notes that the gold price has been on a stable upward trend since 2025, which consumers have adapted to, leading to an anticipated rapid release of terminal consumption demand in 2026 [14]. - The report emphasizes that the tax reform in November is expected to benefit compliant gold and jewelry brands by increasing market concentration [14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the retail industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The retail industry is experiencing a shift towards quality growth and long-term strategies, moving away from reliance on traffic bonuses [25][26] - The industry is focusing on emotional consumption themes, with high-quality companies in sectors like gold jewelry, offline retail, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics being highlighted as investment opportunities [5][29][30] Summary by Sections Retail Market Review - The retail industry index rose by 3.45% during the week of November 24-28, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.05 percentage points [4][13] - The multi-format retail sector showed the highest growth this week, with a 6.18% increase, while the jewelry sector led the year-to-date performance with a 22.11% increase [18][19] Retail Insights: Brand Building and Technological Aesthetics - The 2025 Cosmetics Annual Conference highlighted the importance of brand building and technological aesthetics for domestic beauty brands to achieve growth [25][26] - Companies like Shiseido and Shanghai Jahwa are focusing on quality and profitability, while Elysian Group is transitioning from operational to technological drivers [26][27] Investment Recommendations - **Gold Jewelry**: Focus on brands with differentiated product offerings and consumer insights, recommending companies like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu Gold [5][29] - **Offline Retail**: Highlighting companies adapting to trends and exploring AI-enabled cross-border e-commerce, with recommendations for Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [5][30] - **Cosmetics**: Emphasizing brands that meet emotional value and safety innovation, recommending companies like Maogeping and Proya [5][30] - **Medical Aesthetics**: Targeting differentiated product manufacturers and expanding medical chains, recommending companies like Aimeike and Kedi-B [5][30] Company-Specific Insights - **Chow Tai Fook**: Achieved revenue of HKD 38.986 billion in FY2026H1, with a slight decline in revenue but a stable profit margin [36][37] - **潮宏基 (Chao Hong Ji)**: Reported a revenue increase of 28.4% in Q1-Q3 2025, with a strong performance in Q3 [39][40] - **永辉超市 (Yonghui Supermarket)**: Experienced a revenue decline of 22.2% in Q1-Q3 2025, but is undergoing a transformation towards quality retail [43][44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for the new consumption industry [3] Core Insights - New consumption is characterized by new demand from emerging consumer groups like Generation Z and a shift from leverage-driven consumption to income-driven consumption among older demographics [5][17] - The supply side benefits from China's robust manufacturing capabilities and the internet's ability to reshape business models and efficiency [5][17] - The report highlights two main investment opportunities: aggressive new consumption sectors such as trendy toys and gold jewelry, and defensive cyclical sectors like liquor and travel [5][4] Summary by Sections New Consumption: What is New Consumption? - New consumption has gained traction in recent years, initially a term from the primary market, now widely recognized [17] - It encompasses both new demand from younger consumers and a shift in older consumers' preferences towards more rational spending [17][21] New Demand: Stars Gather to Form Light - Emotional consumption and the rise of national trends are significant drivers, with luxury attributes associated with products [46] - The report identifies key sectors: IP toys, gold jewelry, and new tea drinks, which align with current consumer trends [5][4] New Supply: Old Trees Sprout New Buds - The report emphasizes that industries with easier pathways develop first, while more challenging sectors follow as technology and information improve [33] - It discusses the efficiency gains in retail and service sectors through standardization and technological advancements [33] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two types of opportunities: aggressive new consumption sectors (e.g., trendy toys, gold jewelry) and defensive cyclical sectors (e.g., liquor, travel) [5][4] - Specific companies to watch include Pop Mart, Mijia, and various tea brands [5][4] Emotional Consumption and National Trends - Generation Z's emotional consumption is highlighted, with a significant portion willing to pay for emotional value [21][23] - The report notes the increasing acceptance of Chinese brands among younger consumers, contrasting with older generations' preferences [21][22] Gold Jewelry Market - The gold jewelry market is projected to grow significantly, with ancient gold jewelry gaining popularity due to its cultural significance [86][87] - The market size for ancient gold jewelry is expected to reach 4,214 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 21.8% [86][87] IP Toy Market - The report outlines the rapid growth of the IP toy market, with a projected market size of 1,741 billion by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 13.6% [69][70] - The emotional value associated with IP toys is a key driver of consumer interest and market expansion [78][79]

Core Insights - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the retail sector, highlighting the potential for recovery in consumer demand and the importance of adapting to new market conditions [1][4][10] 2025 Industry Review - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's retail sales reached 365,877 billion yuan, growing by 4.5% year-on-year, with non-automotive retail sales increasing by 4.9% [2][10] - The cosmetics sector saw a stable growth of 3.9%, while gold and jewelry sales surged by 11.5% due to low base effects and rising gold prices [2][26] - Cross-border e-commerce imports and exports amounted to approximately 2.06 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.4% despite external pressures [2][33] 2026 Outlook - New markets will be explored, including offline channel adjustments and innovations in instant retail, alongside continued overseas expansion opportunities [3][61] - New consumer demands will focus on emotional and practical value, leveraging AI and IP for product innovation [3][66] - A platform-based approach is necessary to ensure sustainable growth amid intensifying competition and shorter product life cycles [3][66] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in beauty care, gold and jewelry, cross-border e-commerce, and offline retail, with specific recommendations for companies like Up Beauty, Chow Tai Fook, and Yonghui Superstores [4][34] - The beauty care sector is expected to benefit from product innovation and platform capabilities, while gold and jewelry companies are advised to capitalize on differentiated designs [4][45] - Cross-border e-commerce firms are projected to thrive as external tariff impacts diminish, with recommendations for companies like Anker Innovations and Focus Technology [4][54] Consumer Behavior Trends - The report notes a structural shift in consumer preferences, with a growing emphasis on emotional value and product differentiation, particularly among younger demographics [3][78] - Instant retail is identified as a significant growth area, with the market expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2030 [3][80] Cross-Border E-commerce Insights - Cross-border e-commerce continues to show resilience, with exports to the EU growing by 8.4% while exports to the US declined by 17% due to tariff impacts [33][87] - Successful brands in overseas markets are those that effectively combine global branding with localized operational strategies [87]

Market Performance - The cultivated diamond concept declined by 1.67%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sector as of the market close on November 27 [1] - Notable declines within the sector included *ST Yazhen, which hit the daily limit down, and companies like Sifangda, World, and Huanghe Xuanfeng, which also experienced significant drops [1] - Conversely, four stocks within the sector saw price increases, with Inno Laser, Chaohongji, and Henglin Co. rising by 3.96%, 2.17%, and 1.82% respectively [1] Capital Flow - The cultivated diamond concept experienced a net outflow of 344 million yuan from major funds today, with 13 stocks seeing net outflows [1] - The stock with the highest net outflow was Jing Sheng Electric, which saw a net outflow of 68.92 million yuan, followed by World, Guojijinggong, and Sifangda with outflows of 57.60 million yuan, 47.16 million yuan, and 47.11 million yuan respectively [1] - On the other hand, stocks with the highest net inflows included Inno Laser, Chaohongji, and Boyun New Materials, with inflows of 10.78 million yuan, 4.95 million yuan, and 1.72 million yuan respectively [1][2]

Market Overview - The jewelry sector increased by 0.64% on November 25, with ST Xinhua Jin leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3870.02, up 0.87%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12777.31, up 1.53% [1] Stock Performance - ST Xinhua Jin (600735) closed at 6.15, up 4.24% with a trading volume of 326,600 shares and a turnover of 196 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include: - Cai Zi Co. (605599) at 15.22, up 2.98% [1] - XD Laisentong (603900) at 9.17, up 2.80% [1] - Ruibeka (600439) at 3.04, up 2.36% [1] - Mankalon (300945) at 17.45, up 1.81% [1] Capital Flow - The jewelry sector experienced a net outflow of 58.72 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 73.45 million yuan [2] - Conversely, speculative funds recorded a net inflow of 132 million yuan [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Cai Zi Co. (6655609) had a net inflow of 13.72 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors faced a net outflow of 13.78 million yuan [3] - Ruibeka (600439) saw a net inflow of 7.34 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors also experiencing a net outflow [3] - China Gold (600916) had a net outflow of 4.84 million yuan from institutional investors, despite a net inflow of 11.09 million yuan from speculative funds [3]

Core Viewpoint - The price of domestic gold jewelry has risen to approximately 1315 RMB per gram as of November 25, 2025, indicating a trend in the gold jewelry market [1]. Price Summary - The price of gold jewelry from various brands is as follows: - Lao Miao Gold in Shanghai: 1315 RMB/gram - Chow Sang Sang: 1315 RMB/gram - Chow Tai Fook: 1312 RMB/gram - Xie Rui Lin: 1312 RMB/gram - Chao Hong Ji: 1312 RMB/gram - Liufuk Jewelry: 1310 RMB/gram [1]. Market Data - As of November 25, 2025, the London spot gold price is reported at 4152.76 USD/ounce, with a daily increase of approximately 0.2% - The Shanghai Gold Exchange spot gold price (Au99.99) is reported at 944.98 RMB/gram, with a daily increase of about 2% [2].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the retail industry, particularly highlighting strong performance in jewelry and instant retail sectors [4][8]. Core Insights - The "Double 11" e-commerce sales showed steady growth, with instant retail experiencing significant increases. Categories such as clothing, cosmetics, and jewelry performed well, with jewelry retail sales increasing by 37.6% year-on-year [4][8]. - Instant retail sales reached RMB 67 billion, marking a 138.4% increase year-on-year, driven by platforms like Meituan and Taobao [4][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumption combined with technology as a key industry trend, with specific companies identified for potential investment [4][8]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, online retail sales of physical goods in October increased by 4.9% year-on-year, with a slowdown of 2.4 percentage points from September [4][8]. - The total e-commerce sales during the 2025 "Double 11" promotion are projected to reach RMB 1,695 billion, a 14.2% increase year-on-year [4][8]. Category Performance - Retail sales for clothing, cosmetics, and jewelry in October showed year-on-year increases of 6.3%, 9.6%, and 37.6% respectively, indicating a strong recovery in these categories [4][8]. - Household appliances and furniture saw a decline in retail sales, with figures of -14.6% and +9.6% respectively, attributed to high base effects and timing fluctuations from national subsidies [4][8]. Key Investment Targets - The report highlights several companies as key investment targets, including jewelry leaders like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu Gold, as well as companies benefiting from the new consumption trend such as Gu Ming and Mixue Bingcheng [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the retail industry [1] Core Insights - The retail industry is experiencing a significant transformation, with a focus on emotional consumption and innovative product offerings driving growth [6][32] - Companies like Liufu Group and Meili Tianyuan are implementing strategic upgrades to enhance brand value and market presence [27][29] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - The retail index reported a decline of 7.24% during the week of November 17-21, 2025, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.34 percentage points [5][14] - The retail index has increased by 0.58% year-to-date, lagging behind the overall market performance [14][18] Company Performance Highlights - Liufu Group anticipates a revenue increase of approximately 20%-30% and a net profit growth of 40%-50% for the six months ending September 30, 2025, driven by effective product differentiation and sales strategies [27] - Meili Tianyuan is focusing on three major strategic initiatives: building a super brand through acquisitions, establishing a super chain for quality growth, and enhancing digital capabilities for precise marketing [29] Investment Themes - **Gold and Jewelry**: Focus on brands with differentiated product offerings and consumer insights, recommending companies like Laopuhuang and Chaohongji [6][35] - **Offline Retail**: Emphasize companies adapting to market changes, recommending Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [6][32] - **Cosmetics**: Highlight domestic brands that cater to emotional value and safety innovations, recommending companies like Maogeping and Pola [6][33] - **Medical Aesthetics**: Target differentiated product manufacturers and expanding medical chains, recommending Aimeike and Kedi-B [6][34] Key Company Updates - Chaohongji reported a revenue increase of 28.4% year-to-date, with a focus on expanding its franchise model and product innovation [38][40] - Yonghui Supermarket's revenue decreased by 22.2% year-to-date, but the company is undergoing a transformation to improve its supply chain and store optimization [41][43]