Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 284.42 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.1% [1][2] - The gross profit reached 39.61 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, resulting in a gross margin of 13.9%, up by 1.1 percentage points [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.17 billion RMB, marking a 23.5% year-on-year growth, with a net profit margin of 3.6%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points [1][2] Revenue Breakdown - The express and large parcel business generated revenue of 200.16 billion RMB, growing by 7.1% year-on-year [2] - The same-city on-demand delivery segment saw a revenue increase of 22.2%, totaling 9.01 billion RMB [2] - The supply chain and international business segments reported a revenue growth of 17.7%, amounting to 74 billion RMB [2] Shareholder Returns - The company has emphasized shareholder returns, planning to steadily increase the cash dividend ratio from the 2023 level [3] - In 2024, the company implemented a mid-term cash dividend of approximately 1.92 billion RMB, with a dividend payout ratio of 39.9% [3] - A special cash dividend of about 4.8 billion RMB was distributed prior to the H-share listing, with an expected year-end dividend of 2.19 billion RMB, leading to a total cash dividend of approximately 4.1 billion RMB for 2024, reflecting a payout ratio of around 40% [3] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 314.67 billion RMB, 345.13 billion RMB, and 375.41 billion RMB respectively [3] - The net profit estimates for the same period are 11.83 billion RMB, 13.71 billion RMB, and 15.73 billion RMB [3] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.37 RMB, 2.75 RMB, and 3.15 RMB respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 18x, 15x, and 13x [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for S.F. Holding with a target price of RMB 48.50, based on a current price of RMB 43.12 [2][15]. Core Insights - In FY24, S.F. Holding achieved a revenue of RMB 284.42 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.07%, and a net profit of RMB 10.17 billion, which is up 23.51% YoY [3][12]. - The company is transitioning from a traditional "product-selling" model to a "solution-providing" strategy, which is expected to drive sustained growth [15]. Revenue Performance - The total business volume for 2024 reached 13.33 billion parcels, marking an 11.3% increase YoY, with express logistics revenue of RMB 205.8 billion, up 7.7% YoY [4][13]. - International operations outperformed domestic growth, with supply chain and international business revenue increasing by 17.5% YoY to RMB 70.5 billion [4][13]. Cost Management - The company improved its gross margin by 1.1 percentage points to 13.9% in 2024 through enhanced efficiency in transfer, transportation, and delivery processes [5][13]. Shareholder Returns - S.F. Holding increased its dividend payout ratio from 35% to 40% in 2024, distributing a total of RMB 4.10 billion in dividends, along with a one-time special dividend of RMB 4.80 billion [14]. Earnings Forecast - The projected net profit for FY25-27 is RMB 12.10 billion, RMB 14.38 billion, and RMB 16.45 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 2.43, RMB 2.88, and RMB 3.30 [6][15].

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, the company achieved significant revenue and profit growth, driven by its express logistics and supply chain businesses, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 284.42 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [1][2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 10.17 billion yuan, up 23.5% year-on-year, marking a historical high [3][4]. - The adjusted net profit was 9.15 billion yuan, reflecting a 28.2% increase compared to the previous year [3]. Business Volume and Pricing - The total business volume for 2024 was 13.26 billion parcels, an increase of 15.5% year-on-year, with an average price per parcel of 15.5 yuan, down 6.2% [1][2]. - In Q4 2024, the business volume reached 3.83 billion parcels, up 17.8% year-on-year, with an average price of 14.6 yuan, down 8.2% [1][2]. Cost and Profitability - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 13.9%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. - The net profit margin improved from 3.2% to 3.6% year-on-year, driven by cost optimization efforts [3][4]. Shareholder Returns - Capital expenditures decreased by 27% to 9.9 billion yuan, representing 3.5% of revenue [5]. - Free cash flow increased by 70% to 22.3 billion yuan, providing a solid foundation for dividends and share buybacks [5]. - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 was 40%, with a one-time dividend accounting for 47% of net profit [6][7]. Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 319.06 billion yuan, 354.32 billion yuan, and 390.61 billion yuan, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 11%, and 10% respectively [8]. - The company is expected to maintain a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, which will support steady profit growth and shareholder returns [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential relative price increase of over 15% in the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company benefited from rising international shipping rates and stable cargo volumes, leading to a 17% year-on-year growth in supply chain and international segments, contributing to a total revenue increase of 10.1% [1][2]. - Cost optimization measures have resulted in a significant improvement in gross margin, reaching 13.9%, the highest level in five years, supporting over 10 billion yuan in net profit attributable to shareholders [1][19]. - The company has reduced capital expenditures to below 10 billion yuan, marking a historical low of 3.3% of revenue, reflecting a focus on core logistics operations and efficient resource management [28]. Financial Information - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 284.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, with net profit attributable to shareholders approximately 10.17 billion yuan, up 23.5% [2][25]. - Operating costs increased by only 8.7%, resulting in a gross profit of 39.6 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year growth of 19.5% [20][25]. Business Highlights - The total volume of packages handled reached 13.26 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, with a notable growth of 15.3% when excluding divested businesses [3][4]. - The international freight and agency business saw substantial revenue growth, driven by increased demand for international air freight and stable shipping volumes [1][3]. Revenue Structure - The core express delivery segment generated revenue of 206 billion yuan, growing by 7.7%, while the supply chain and international business segments experienced a significant revenue increase of 17.5% [13][18]. - The international freight forwarding segment grew by over 30%, and international express services saw growth exceeding 20% [13]. Cost Management - The company implemented effective cost control measures, resulting in a gross margin of 13.9%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous year [19][20]. - Operating expenses for 2024 were 26 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.9%, with a comprehensive expense ratio decreasing to 9.2% [25][26]. Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - The company reported a significant improvement in operating cash flow, which increased by 21.1% year-on-year, with free cash flow reaching 22.3 billion yuan [28][30]. - Capital expenditures were reduced to 9.34 billion yuan, representing a 25.1% decrease and the lowest proportion of revenue in history [28]. Shareholder Returns - The company allocated 10.66 billion yuan for dividends and share buybacks in 2024, with a 42% increase in regular dividends [32]. - The share buyback program is ongoing, with a significant portion of previously repurchased shares already canceled, indicating a commitment to enhancing shareholder value [32].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][18]. Core Views - The company achieved a significant milestone with its annual net profit exceeding 10 billion yuan, indicating strong potential for continued improvement in profitability [1][4]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 284.42 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.1%, while the net profit is expected to reach 10.17 billion yuan, up 23.5% year-on-year [1][5]. - The company has successfully focused on high-margin express delivery services after divesting from unprofitable segments, leading to improved profitability metrics [2][15]. Revenue and Profitability - The express delivery segment generated revenue of 122.21 billion yuan in 2024, growing 5.8% year-on-year, despite macroeconomic pressures [2][15]. - The company has implemented cost control measures and operational efficiency improvements, resulting in a net profit margin increase to 3.58% for the year [2][16]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 77.56 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.55 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 29.6% [1][10]. Capital Expenditure and Financial Health - The company reduced its capital expenditure to 9.9 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 27% year-on-year, which is expected to further enhance profitability [3][16]. - The company is well-positioned to navigate economic cycles due to its robust operational framework and resource management strategies [3][16]. Long-term Outlook - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 11.77 billion yuan, 13.73 billion yuan, and 15.60 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [4][18]. - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 40% in 2024, up by 5 percentage points from the previous year, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [3][16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights strong performance in revenue growth and substantial shareholder returns, recommending active investment in the company [2] - The company achieved a revenue of 284.42 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.17 billion yuan, up 23.5% year-on-year [4][10] - The report emphasizes the dual drivers of express logistics and supply chain/international operations, leading to double-digit revenue growth in 2024 [6] Performance Summary - In 2024, the company completed 13.26 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, with an average price per parcel of 15.5 yuan, down 6.2% [5] - The company’s revenue from express logistics was 205.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [6] - The net profit margin improved from 3.2% to 3.6% year-on-year, driven by cost reduction and efficiency improvements [7][10] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 319.06 billion yuan, 354.32 billion yuan, and 390.61 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 12%, 11%, and 10% [10][12] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 11.62 billion yuan, 13.23 billion yuan, and 15.14 billion yuan for the same years, with a consistent growth rate of 14% [10][12] Shareholder Returns - The company’s capital expenditure decreased by 27% to 9.9 billion yuan in 2024, with free cash flow increasing by 70% to 22.3 billion yuan, supporting dividends and share buybacks [10] - The total cash dividend as a percentage of net profit has increased from 20% in 2022 to 40% in 2024, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns [10]

Core Insights - SF Holding achieved record-high operating performance in 2024, with revenue reaching approximately 284.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 10%, and net profit surpassing 10 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 10.17 billion yuan, a growth of over 20% [1][3][4] Financial Performance - In 2024, SF Holding's revenue increased by 26.01 billion yuan compared to the previous year, marking a growth rate of 10.07% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 1.93 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 23.51% [3] - The company plans to distribute cash dividends exceeding 8.9 billion yuan, setting a historical high [2] Business Segments - The express delivery business generated 122.21 billion yuan in revenue, up 5.8% year-on-year, with a business volume increase of 11.8% [5] - The economic express segment reported 27.25 billion yuan in revenue, a growth of 8.8%, with a business volume increase of 17.5% [5] - The freight business achieved 37.64 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a 13.8% increase, with cargo volume growing over 20% [5] - The cold chain and pharmaceutical segment saw a revenue decline of 4.9% to 9.81 billion yuan, primarily due to climate factors affecting seasonal fresh produce [5] - The same-city instant delivery business grew by 22.4%, generating 8.87 billion yuan [5] - Supply chain and international business revenue exceeded 70.49 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 17.5%, indicating a solid second growth curve [5] Cost Management - Structural cost reduction has been a significant factor in the net profit growth, with continuous optimization of the network and a decrease in average operating costs [6] - The comprehensive gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 13.93% and 3.59%, respectively, both showing year-on-year increases [7] Technological Innovation - SF Holding emphasizes technological empowerment, integrating advanced logistics technology to enhance operational efficiency and customer service [8] - The company has developed proprietary models for logistics decision-making and large language models, improving demand forecasting and operational decision-making [8][9] - The application of automation technologies, such as AGV and RPA, has optimized business processes and enhanced network efficiency [8][9] R&D Investment - Since 2020, SF Holding has invested over 3 billion yuan annually in research and development [10] - As of the end of 2024, the company holds 4,180 active and pending patents, with 2,505 software copyrights, of which 61.5% are invention patents [10] - The company aims to accelerate industry transformation by shifting from a "product-selling" model to a "solution-selling" model, expanding its supply chain capabilities [10]

Trading Information - On March 28, 2025, SF Holding (002352) closed at 42.04 yuan, down 0.69%, with a turnover rate of 0.22% and a trading volume of 104,600 shares, amounting to 439 million yuan [1] - The capital flow on the same day showed a net inflow of 13.66 million yuan from main funds, accounting for 3.11% of the total trading volume, while retail investors had a net outflow of 14.01 million yuan, representing 3.19% of the total [1][6] Shareholder Changes - As of February 28, 2025, the number of shareholders of SF Holding was 178,800, a decrease of 10,800 from December 31, 2024, representing a reduction of 5.72% [2][6] - The average number of shares held per shareholder increased from 25,400 to 26,900 shares, with an average market value of 1.1241 million yuan [2] Performance Disclosure - The 2024 annual report of SF Holding indicated a total revenue of 284.42 billion yuan, an increase of 10.07% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.17 billion yuan, up 23.51% year-on-year [3][4][6] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a single-quarter revenue of 77.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.76%, and a net profit of 2.55 billion yuan, up 29.61% year-on-year [3] Company Announcements - The board of directors proposed to increase the cash dividend ratio for 2024 from 35% in 2023 to 40%, with an expected total cash dividend of 4.104 billion yuan for the year [6][7] - The company has repurchased a total of 79.29 million shares, which will be canceled, and announced a second phase of share repurchase with an expected total amount of approximately 758 million yuan [5][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Strong Buy" (maintained) [1][2]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 10.17 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.5%, with a net profit margin of 3.6%. The outlook for the company's net profit margin is positive, indicating a sustained improvement [1][5]. - The target price is set at 56.3 RMB, with the current price at 42.04 RMB, suggesting a potential upside of approximately 34% [2][5]. - The company has shown resilience in its core express delivery demand, maintaining growth above GDP levels despite macroeconomic pressures. The transition from selling products to providing industry solutions is expected to enhance service penetration [5][10]. - The company has implemented operational changes that have reduced costs and improved efficiency, including a new operational model that has shortened the average distance for delivery personnel by 38% [5][10]. - The international business segment is anticipated to contribute positively to profits, with significant growth in air cargo throughput at Ezhou Airport [5][10]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 284.42 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%. The express logistics segment generated revenue of 205.8 billion RMB, up 7.7% [5][6]. - The company reported a quarterly net profit of 2.55 billion RMB in Q4 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.6% [5][9]. - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of approximately 4.104 billion RMB for the year, with a payout ratio of 40% [5][10]. - The company’s operating data indicates a total express delivery volume of 13.26 billion pieces in 2024, an increase of 11.5% year-on-year [5][9]. - The company’s financial forecasts for 2025 to 2027 predict a net profit of 11.67 billion RMB, 13.70 billion RMB, and 15.60 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.34, 2.75, and 3.13 RMB [6][11].

Core Viewpoint - SF Holding (002352.SZ; 6936.HK) reported a strong financial performance for 2024, with revenue reaching 284.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and net profit of 10.2 billion yuan, up 23.5%, marking a historical high since its A-share listing. However, losses in the supply chain and international business raise concerns for future growth [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, SF Holding achieved revenue of 284.4 billion yuan, a 10.1% increase year-on-year, and net profit of 10.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 23.5% growth [2]. - The gross profit margin improved from 12.82% to 13.93% [2]. - Despite revenue growth, the supply chain and international business reported a loss of 132 million yuan, indicating ongoing challenges in these segments [2]. Business Segment Analysis - The supply chain and international business generated revenue of 70.49 billion yuan, a 17.5% increase, but continued to incur losses due to restructuring and market pressures [2]. - The core express delivery business faced increased competition, with revenue of 122.21 billion yuan, a 5.8% increase, while the business volume grew by 11.8%, leading to a 3.4% decline in average price per shipment [2]. - The market share of SF Holding in the express delivery sector is 7.57%, below the industry average growth rate of 21.5% [2]. Highlights and Challenges - Same-city instant delivery emerged as a bright spot, with revenue growing by 27.1% to 15.75 billion yuan and net profit increasing by 161.8% to 133 million yuan, driven by an increase in active merchants and coverage in e-commerce returns [3]. - However, the company faces strong competition from rivals like Jitu and Tongda, which are aggressively penetrating the market through price wars [3]. International Expansion - SF Holding made significant strides in its international strategy by becoming the first A+H listed company in the express logistics sector, marking a milestone in its capital market internationalization [4]. - Despite rapid expansion in Southeast Asia and Japan, the company continues to face profitability challenges in overseas markets, with unclear profit models leading to short-term losses [4]. Future Outlook - The company plans to enhance its market position through technological innovation and diversified strategies, focusing on high-efficiency express delivery and air logistics network development [4]. - SF Holding aims to optimize its supply chain and international business to turn losses into profits and strengthen its competitive edge [4]. - In the capital market, the company is taking measures such as cash dividends and share buybacks to boost investor confidence, with operating cash flow reaching 32.19 billion yuan, a 21.1% increase [5].