主要产品是等离子体增强化学气相沉积设备、原子层沉积设备等的 拓荆科技三季度获得"国家大基金"持仓市值达143.17亿元。 根据拓荆科技三 季报披露， 拓荆科技获国家集成电路产业投资基金股份有限公司重仓持股，位列公司第一大流通股东。 拓荆科技10月30日公告称，公司布2025 年第三季度报告，第三季度实现营业收入22.66亿元，同比增长124.15%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润4.62亿元，同比增长225.07%。 前三季度实现营业收入42.20亿元，同比增长85.27%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润5.57亿元，同比增长105.14%。公司产品竞争力持续 提升，基于新型设备平台（PF-300T Plus和PF-300M）和新型反应腔（pX和Supra-D）的 PECVD Stack（ONO叠层）、ACHM以及 PECVD Bianca、ALD SiCO 等先进制程的验证机台顺利通过客户认证，进入规模化量产阶段，并实现收入转化，营业收入持续大幅度增 长。 A股2025年三季报披露收官，"国家大基金"的最新投资方向也浮出水面。 从最新持仓动向来看，wind数据显示， 共有30家A股上市公司的前十大流通股东中出现"国 ...

主营业务是半导体硅片及其他材料的研发、生产和销售的沪硅产业三季度获得"国家大基金"持仓市值达164.86亿元。根据沪硅产业三季报披露，沪硅产业获 国家集成电路产业投资基金股份有限公司重仓持股，位列公司第一大流通股东。沪硅产业10月30日发布2025年第三季度报告，前三季度实现营业收入26.41 亿元，同比增长6.56%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润为亏损6.31亿元。第三季度营业收入为9.44亿元，同比增长3.79%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润为亏 损2.65亿元。业绩变动主要系公司300mm半导体硅片的销量较上年同期增长超过30%，但单价水平仍旧承压，因此300mm半导体硅片的收入较上年同期增幅 约为16%，而沪硅产业200mm半导体硅片的销量较上年同期有约10%左右的减少，且受托加工服务的收入受终端市场疲软、200mmSOI硅片的需求降低影响 而有较大幅度的下降，综合导致公司在本报告期的利润水平有所下降。 主要产品是等离子体增强化学气相沉积设备、原子层沉积设备等的拓荆科技三季度获得"国家大基金"持仓市值达143.17亿元。根据拓荆科技三季报披露，拓 荆科技获国家集成电路产业投资基金股份有限公司重仓持股，位列 ...

事件：10 月30 日,公司发布2025 年第三季度报告1）25Q1-Q3 公司实现营业收入273.01 亿元，同比增加 34.14%；归母净利润51.30 亿元，同比增加14.97%；扣非后归母净利润42.66 亿元，同比减少16.39%。 2）25Q3 公司实现营业收入111.60 亿元，同比增加39.19%；归母净利润19.22 亿元，同比增加14.30%； 扣非后归母净利润19.21 亿元，同比增加18.15%。 营收稳步增长，市场份额持续提升 投资建议： 我们预计公司2025-2027 年收入分别为390.9 亿元、492.5 亿元、608.2 亿元，归母净利润分别为73.5 亿 元、95 亿元、120.6 亿元。 采用PE 估值法，考虑到半导体行业国产替代趋势明确，公司作为平台型龙头有望获得更高份额，给予 公司2025 年49 倍PE，对应目标价497.28 元/股，维持"买入-A"投资评级。 风险提示： 半导体设备国产化不及预期；下游晶圆厂扩产不及预期；研发节奏存在不确定性；海外制裁风险。 1）25Q1-Q3 公司收入增长的主要推动力为国内集成电路装备市场持续增长，公司凭借高效的产品研发 能力和 ...

Investment Strategy and Key Stock Portfolio - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a critical phase for achieving socialist modernization, with an implied growth rate requirement of approximately 4.7% during this period. The focus is on high-quality development, emphasizing total factor productivity, resident consumption rates, and domestic demand [3][9] - The improvement in China-US relations is noted, with a meeting between the leaders on October 30 discussing economic cooperation and resulting in a consensus that includes the suspension of certain tariffs and export controls. This is expected to enhance risk appetite in the market [3][9] - There is a continued demand for stabilizing domestic demand in the fourth quarter, with a reported GDP growth rate of 5.2% in the first three quarters, making it feasible to meet the annual target of 5%. However, there are signs of slowing retail sales growth and negative fixed asset investment growth [10][11] - The Federal Reserve has continued its gradual interest rate cuts, with a clear end to quantitative tightening (QT) by December 1. This is seen as a move to maintain the Fed's independence and data-driven decision-making [10][11] Key Stock Recommendations - The report includes a selection of stocks across various industries, highlighting their potential based on current market conditions and company fundamentals. The recommended stocks include: - Hengli Petrochemical (600346.SH) in the petrochemical sector, with a focus on its resilience and dividend policy [12][13] - Satellite Chemical (002648.SZ) in basic chemicals, benefiting from its integrated supply chain and expected recovery in market demand [12][13] - Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (002317.SZ) in the pharmaceutical sector, with a strong pipeline and expected revenue growth [12][13] - Kaili Medical (300633.SZ) in the medical sector, focusing on high-end product launches and market expansion [12][13] - Lihua Co., Ltd. (300761.SZ) in agriculture, benefiting from stable growth in poultry production [12][13] - Top Group (601689.SH) in the automotive sector, expected to benefit from its position as a key supplier to Tesla [12][13] - Zhaoyi Innovation (603986.SH) in electronics, with strong demand for semiconductor products [12][13] - Northern Huachuang (002371.SZ) in electronics, benefiting from the acceleration of domestic semiconductor production [12][13] - Anhui Heli (600761.SH) in machinery, focusing on global expansion and smart logistics [12][13] - Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH) in machinery, benefiting from the recovery in the excavator industry [12][13] ETF Recommendations - The report also recommends several ETFs, including: - Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF (588000.OF) with a year-to-date growth rate of 47.13% [15] - E Fund CSI Artificial Intelligence Theme ETF (159819.OF) with a year-to-date growth rate of 69.58% [15] - Chemical ETF (159870.OF) with a year-to-date growth rate of 25.97% [15] - GF CSI Infrastructure Engineering ETF (516970.OF) with a year-to-date growth rate of 9.09% [15] - Southern CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF (512400.OF) with a year-to-date growth rate of 85.37% [15]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Northern Huachuang, reported strong financial performance in Q3 2025, with significant revenue growth and a healthy order backlog, indicating a positive outlook for future revenue growth [2][3]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 11.16 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 40.6% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.922 billion yuan, up 14.6% year-on-year and 18% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The gross profit margin was 40.3%, showing a decrease of 2 percentage points year-on-year and 1 percentage point quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The company's non-recurring net profit was 1.92 billion yuan, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase and a 19.3% quarter-on-quarter increase [2]. Product Development and Market Position - The company has expanded its product line with new ion implantation machines and electroplating machines, enhancing its platform advantages [3]. - The introduction of the first 12-inch electroplating equipment, designed for advanced packaging, signifies the company's commitment to innovation [3]. - The company holds a substantial order backlog, with inventory valued at 30.2 billion yuan and contract liabilities at 4.7 billion yuan, indicating strong demand for its products [3]. Future Outlook - Given the company's leading position in the semiconductor equipment sector and the expected expansion of advanced production lines in China by 2026, revenue is anticipated to continue growing healthily [3].

Group 1: Fund Scale and Performance - The total net asset value of public funds reached 35.41 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, an increase of 1.69 trillion yuan from the end of Q2 2025, with a quarterly growth of 2.65% in the A-share market [3][16]. - Non-monetary market fund scale reached 21.06 trillion yuan, up 1.56 trillion yuan from the previous quarter, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.02% and a year-on-year increase of 13.48% [3][16]. - Passive index bond funds led the growth with a scale of 1.82 trillion yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.13% and a year-on-year increase of 80.38% [3][24]. Group 2: Active Equity Funds - As of the end of Q3 2025, there were 4,268 active equity funds with a total scale of 3.94 trillion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.06% and a year-on-year increase of 4.80% [4][25]. - The average holding ratio of active equity funds was 88.91%, with the top 10 holdings accounting for an average of 39.90% of the fund's net value, indicating a slight increase in concentration [4][27]. - The top ten fund companies accounted for 44.7% of the total active equity fund market, highlighting a significant concentration effect among leading firms [4][28]. Group 3: Fixed Income Plus Funds - By the end of Q3 2025, there were 1,631 fixed income plus funds with a total scale of 2.11 trillion yuan, with a notable increase in the number of funds in the medium and low elasticity categories [5][40]. - The market saw a significant increase in the allocation to electronic, power equipment and new energy, and non-ferrous metals sectors, with respective increases of 4.6%, 3.2%, and 3.0% in heavy positions [5][69]. - The top three fund companies managing fixed income plus funds were E Fund, Invesco Great Wall, and Fortune Fund, with E Fund managing over 237.2 billion yuan [5][46]. Group 4: FOF, ETF, QDII, and Quantitative Funds - As of Q3 2025, there were 518 FOF funds with a total scale of 1934.89 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.8% [6]. - The ETF market reached a total scale of 54,770.41 billion yuan, up 32.08% from Q2 2025 [6]. - The QDII market had 266 funds with a total scale of 740.3 billion yuan, indicating a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.25% [6][24].

刘梦麟 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340521070002 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： liumenglin@dgzq.com.cn 陈伟光 S0340520060001 电话：0769-22119430 邮箱： chenweiguang@dgzq.com.c n | 主要数据 2025 | 10 | 月 31 | 日 | 年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | 407.05 | | | | 总市值（亿元） | | 2,948.58 | | | | 总股本（亿股） | | 7.24 | | | | 流通股本（亿股） | | 7.24 | | | | ROE(TTM) | | 17.45% | | | | 12 月最高价（元） | | 486.69 | | | | 12 月最低价（元） | | 314.33 | | | 股价走势 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，同花顺 2025 年 10 月 31 日 投资要点： 事件：公司发布2025年三季报。公司2025年前三季度实现营收273.01亿元， 同比增长32.97%，实现归母净利润51.30亿元 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company reported Q3 2025 earnings that met market expectations, benefiting from the expansion of advanced process manufacturing [2] - The semiconductor equipment business is experiencing rapid growth, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching 11.16 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38.31%, driven by improvements in mature products and breakthroughs in new technologies [3] - The company's gross profit margin has shown fluctuations, with Q3 2025 gross margin at 40.31%, down 1.95 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by new product confirmation timing and changes in customer structure [4] - The company's platform layout is benefiting from advanced process expansion, with a focus on mergers and acquisitions to enhance competitiveness [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 273.01 billion, a year-on-year increase of 32.97%, nearing the total revenue for 2024 [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q1-3 2025 was 51.30 billion, up 14.83% year-on-year, with Q3 net profit at 19.22 billion, reflecting a 14.60% increase [4] - The company adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 385.04 billion, 477.62 billion, and 592.97 billion respectively, with corresponding net profit forecasts of 68.27 billion, 93.01 billion, and 120.20 billion [6] Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on advanced process manufacturing and platformization as key investment considerations, with significant orders from logic customers [5] - The acquisition of a stake in Chip Source Micro was completed ahead of schedule, positioning the company to benefit from integration and enhance its competitive edge in the semiconductor equipment market [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [1][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 11.16 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 40.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.922 billion yuan, up 14.6% year-on-year and 18% quarter-on-quarter. The company has a strong order backlog, indicating a healthy growth trajectory for future revenues [1][7]. - The company is enhancing its platform advantages by expanding its product offerings, including new ion implantation and electroplating equipment. This expansion is expected to strengthen its market position [7][8]. - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company had inventory worth 30.2 billion yuan and contract liabilities of 4.7 billion yuan, indicating a robust order book and potential for sustained revenue growth [7][8]. Financial Data and Valuation - The projected total revenue for the company is expected to reach 39.12 billion yuan in 2025, 48.76 billion yuan in 2026, and 59.41 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 7.21 billion yuan, 9.31 billion yuan, and 11.76 billion yuan respectively. The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 41.8, 32.3, and 25.6 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [3][10]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 53.625 billion yuan in 2023 to 109.992 billion yuan in 2027, with total liabilities increasing from 28.8 billion yuan to 49.616 billion yuan over the same period [8][9]. Key Financial Ratios - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of approximately 42% in 2025, with a net profit margin of around 18.4%. Return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 21% in 2025, indicating strong profitability [10][11]. - The asset-liability ratio is expected to decrease from 53.7% in 2023 to 45.1% in 2027, reflecting improved financial stability [10].

Core Viewpoint - The digital economy theme index has shown fluctuations, with specific stocks performing variably, while the government supports mergers and acquisitions in strategic emerging industries [1][2]. Group 1: Digital Economy Index Performance - As of October 31, 2025, the CSI Digital Economy Theme Index (931582) decreased by 1.44% [1]. - Leading stocks included Deepin Technology (300454) with a rise of 6.51%, while Lattice Technology (688008) led the decline with a drop of 7.24% [1][4]. - The digital economy ETF (560800) experienced a turnover of 1.41% during the trading session, with a total transaction value of 9.5176 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Market Trends and Government Support - The Beijing municipal government has issued opinions to support mergers and acquisitions aimed at promoting high-quality development of listed companies, focusing on strategic emerging industries [1]. - Key sectors for development include artificial intelligence, healthcare, integrated circuits, smart connected vehicles, cultural industries, and renewable energy [1]. Group 3: ETF and Index Composition - The digital economy ETF closely tracks the CSI Digital Economy Theme Index, which includes companies with high digitalization levels [2]. - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 54.31% of the total index weight, with Dongfang Fortune (300059) being the highest at 8.64% [2].