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美国农业部(USDA)月度供需报告数据分析专题:25/26产季数据首次发布,2026年美国牛肉市场供给加速调减
Guoxin Securities· 2025-05-18 15:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [5] Core Insights - The USDA's May supply and demand report indicates a tightening of global supply for corn, soybeans, and wheat, while beef prices in the U.S. are expected to rise due to reduced supply [5][6] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in the agricultural sector, particularly in corn and soybean markets, as prices are expected to stabilize and recover from historical lows [5][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Corn - The USDA forecasts a global corn production increase of 43.7 million tons (approximately +3.45%) to 1.26498 billion tons for the 25/26 season, with total usage rising by 24.4 million tons (approximately +1.91%) [16][17] - China's corn production is expected to increase by 80,000 tons (approximately +0.03%) to 295 million tons, with total usage up by 5 million tons (approximately +1.56%) [17] - Domestic corn prices are at historical lows, with strong support expected for price recovery [19] Soybeans - Global soybean production is projected to increase by 5.95 million tons (approximately +1.39%) to 426.82 million tons for the 25/26 season, with total usage up by 13.76 million tons (approximately +3.24%) [31][32] - The report anticipates that soybean prices will remain under pressure in the first half of 2025 due to high supply levels, but long-term trends are expected to improve [34][35] Wheat - Global wheat production is expected to rise by 8.81 million tons (approximately +1.10%) to 80.852 million tons for the 25/26 season, with total usage increasing by 4.38 million tons (approximately +0.55%) [43][44] - The overall supply of wheat remains ample, and prices are expected to stabilize at lower levels [43] Beef - The USDA predicts a significant reduction in U.S. beef supply for 2026, with prices expected to rise by 15.2% in Q2 2025 and 14.1% in Q3 2025 [5][7] - The domestic beef market is expected to see a price increase despite seasonal trends, indicating a potential upward cycle for beef prices [5][7] Pork - U.S. pork production is expected to increase by 1.33% in 2026, with consumption growth slightly outpacing supply [7][8] - Domestic pork prices are projected to decline, but low-cost producers are expected to maintain profitability [7] Poultry - U.S. poultry supply is expected to recover in 2026, with domestic demand in China anticipated to improve [7][8] - The report notes that high pathogenic avian influenza impacts are diminishing, which may support recovery in poultry production [7] Eggs - U.S. egg production is projected to increase by 6% in 2026, with domestic supply expected to remain ample throughout the year [8][9] - The report indicates that egg prices may face downward pressure due to high supply levels [8][9]
4月猪价淡季不淡,5月猪价中枢或进一步抬升
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-05-16 07:59
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - In April 2025, the national average selling price of live pigs was 14.80 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 1.33% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.95% [6][18] - The supply gap in May is expected to lead to a further increase in the price center of live pigs, driven by limited increases in supply and improving demand [6][18] - The average weight of pigs sold is expected to gradually decline, but the narrowing price difference between different grades of pigs will have limited pressure on prices [7][22] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - April saw a non-seasonal increase in pig prices, with expectations for further price increases in May due to supply constraints and improving demand [6][18] - The average price of live pigs in April was 14.80 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 1.33% [6][18] - The slaughter volume in April was 4.213 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 4.54% but a year-on-year increase of 6.76% [6][18] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of pigs is expected to be limited in May due to previous culling and disease impacts, while demand for pork is showing marginal improvement [6][18] - The planned output for May is expected to increase by 1.98% compared to actual output in April [6][18] Profitability and Market Performance - The average profit for self-bred pigs in April was 69.44 yuan/head, a month-on-month increase of 63.63% [8][26] - The number of breeding sows in April increased by 0.96% month-on-month [8][26] - The price of 15kg piglets reached 630 yuan/head, indicating a high price level during the replenishment season [8][26] Company Performance - In April, 12 listed pig farming companies collectively sold 16.2368 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 37.22% [9][28] - Major companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs reported significant year-on-year increases in sales volume [9][28] - The average selling prices varied among companies, with some experiencing increases while others saw declines [9][35]
大北农(002385) - 北京市天元律师事务所关于北京大北农科技集团股份有限公司2024年年度股东大会的法律意见
2025-05-15 11:31
北京市天元律师事务所 关于北京大北农科技集团股份有限公司 2024 年年度股东大会的法律意见 北京大北农科技集团股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")2024 年年度股东大 会(以下简称"本次股东大会")采取现场投票与网络投票相结合的方式,现场 会议于 2025 年 5 月 15 日 14:30 在北京市海淀区澄湾街 19 号院大北农凤凰国际 创新园行政楼 104 会议室召开。北京市天元律师事务所(以下简称"本所")接 受公司聘任,指派本所律师参加本次股东大会现场会议,并根据《中华人民共和 国公司法》、《中华人民共和国证券法》(以下简称"《证券法》")、《上市 公司股东会规则》(以下简称"《股东会规则》")以及《北京大北农科技集团 股份有限公司章程》(以下简称"《公司章程》")等有关规定,就本次股东大 会的召集、召开程序、出席现场会议人员的资格、召集人资格、会议表决程序及 表决结果等事项出具本法律意见。 为出具本法律意见,本所律师审查了《北京大北农科技集团股份有限公司第 六届董事会第二十九次会议决议公告》《北京大北农科技集团股份有限公司第六 届监事会第十六次会议决议公告》《北京大北农科技集团股份有限公司关于召开 2 ...
大北农(002385) - 2024年年度股东大会决议公告
2025-05-15 11:31
证券代码:002385 证券简称:大北农 公告编号:2025-050 北京大北农科技集团股份有限公司 2024 年年度股东大会决议公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整,没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示: 1.本次股东大会未出现否决提案的情形; 2.本次股东大会不涉及变更以往股东大会已通过的决议。 (1)现场会议召开时间:2025 年 5 月 15 日(星期四)下午 14:30 开始 (2)网络投票起止时间: ①通过深圳证券交易所(以下简称"深交所")交易系统进行网络投票的具 体时间为:2025 年 5 月 15 日 9:15—9:25,9:30—11:30 和 13:00—15:00; ②通过互联网投票系统(http://wltp.cninfo.com.cn)投票的具体时间为:2025 年 5 月 15 日上午 09:15 至下午 15:00 期间的任意时间。 2.现场会议召开地点:北京市海淀区澄湾街 19 号院大北农凤凰国际创新园 行政楼 104 会议室 3.会议召开方式:采取现场投票与网络投票相结合的方式 4.会议召集人:公司第六届董事会 5.会议主持人:公司董事 ...
5月USDA供需报告分析:新作库存低于预期,利多大豆和玉米
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-15 07:30
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The USDA supply and demand report indicates that new crop inventories for soybeans and corn are lower than expected, which is favorable for prices [4][6] - Global corn production for the 2024/25 season is estimated at 1.221 billion tons, with significant increases in production from the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina [1][12] - The soybean production forecast for the 2025/26 season is 410 million tons, with Brazil expected to reach a record 175 million tons [2][3][18] - The global wheat production forecast for 2025/26 is 667 million tons, reflecting a 1.0% year-on-year increase, with the EU showing significant growth [4][28] Summary by Sections Corn - The USDA report estimates a global corn production of 1.221 billion tons for 2024/25, with U.S. production increasing by 24.22 million tons due to expanded planting [1][12] - The projected global corn ending stocks for 2025/26 are 95.68 million tons, a 7.4% increase year-on-year, with a low stocks-to-use ratio of 10% [1][12] Soybeans - The global soybean production for 2024/25 is estimated at 421 million tons, with U.S. ending stocks significantly reduced to 295 million bushels [2][3][18] - The forecast for global soybean ending stocks for 2025/26 is 80.47 million tons, a 1.6% increase year-on-year, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 27.6% [3][19] Wheat - The global wheat production for 2025/26 is projected at 667 million tons, with the EU's production expected to increase by 11.4% to 136 million tons [4][28] - The global wheat ending stocks for 2025/26 are estimated at 14.2 million tons, reflecting a 2.5% year-on-year increase, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 21.6% [5][28] Investment Recommendations - In light of increasing global weather extremes and geopolitical tensions affecting grain prices, the report emphasizes the importance of seed source control for national food security [6][36] - Recommended companies include leading seed firms with transgenic advantages such as Longping High-Tech, Dabeinong, and Qianyuan High-Tech, along with suggestions to monitor Kangnong Seed Industry, Denghai Seed Industry, and Fengle Seed Industry [6][36]
南非口蹄疫蔓延冲击畜牧市场,养殖 ETF(516760) 周涨领先,三条主线成破局关键
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-13 03:26
Core Viewpoint - The livestock farming index in China has shown a slight decline, with specific stocks experiencing mixed performance, while external factors such as foot-and-mouth disease in South Africa are impacting the industry [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 13, 2025, the China Livestock Farming Index (930707) decreased by 0.38%, with stocks like Luyouli (300381) and Jinxinnong (002548) showing gains of 1.07% and 1.05% respectively, while Ruipubio (300119) led the decline with a drop of 2.66% [1]. - The Livestock ETF (516760) fell by 0.80%, with a latest price of 0.62 yuan, but it ranked first in weekly performance among comparable funds as of May 12, 2025 [1]. - The Livestock ETF had a turnover rate of 1.07% during the trading session, with a total transaction value of 1.4475 million yuan, and an average daily transaction of 4.6547 million yuan over the past year [3]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The South African Department of Agriculture confirmed the spread of foot-and-mouth disease to provinces like KwaZulu-Natal, prompting China's Ministry of Agriculture to urge livestock farmers to restrict animal transport and implement a 28-day quarantine for new animals [1]. - Everbright Securities identified three main investment themes: (1) Planting: Rising prices of staple crops like corn and wheat are expected to benefit major planting companies; (2) Seeds: Improved demand in the seed industry due to favorable planting conditions; (3) Agricultural Chemicals: Improved planting profits are likely to reduce agricultural input cost pressures, expanding the agricultural chemicals market [1]. Group 3: Valuation Metrics - The Livestock ETF closely tracks the China Livestock Farming Index, which includes companies involved in animal feed, veterinary drugs, and livestock farming, reflecting the overall performance of related listed companies [3]. - As of May 12, 2025, the Livestock Farming Index's price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) was 12.26, indicating it is at a historical low, being below 99.43% of the time over the past year [3]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the Livestock Farming Index accounted for 69.38% of the index, with Hai Da Group (002311) having the highest weight at 11.24% [3][5].
中证现代农业主题指数下跌0.4%,前十大权重包含牧原股份等
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-05-12 13:43
金融界5月12日消息,上证指数高开高走,中证现代农业主题指数 (CS现代农,930662)下跌0.4%,报 997.35点,成交额75.19亿元。 从中证现代农业主题指数持仓的市场板块来看,深圳证券交易所占比74.03%、上海证券交易所占比 25.97%。 从中证现代农业主题指数持仓样本的行业来看,畜牧产品占比39.61%、饲料占比37.86%、农产品占比 8.40%、种业占比7.29%、动物保健与育种占比5.99%、农业机械占比0.84%。 资料显示,指数样本每半年调整一次,样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整,调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期 调整日前,权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对指数进行临时调整。当样本退市时,将其从指数样 本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的处理,参照计算与维护细则处理。 跟踪CS现代农的公募基金包括:易方达中证现代农业主题ETF。 数据统计显示,中证现代农业主题指数近一个月下跌5.59%,近三个月上涨5.31%,年至今上涨1.82%。 据了解,中证现代农业主题指数选取30只业务涉及农产品 ...
粮食概念下跌0.60%,主力资金净流出33股
今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 截至5月12日收盘,粮食概念下跌0.60%,位居概念板块跌幅榜前列,板块内,克明食品、神农种业、 荃银高科等跌幅居前,股价上涨的有11只,涨幅居前的有*ST辉丰、*ST万方、ST亚联等,分别上涨 2.80%、2.73%、2.45%。 | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅(%) | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中船系 | 6.55 | 重组蛋白 | -0.94 | | 成飞概念 | 5.77 | 代糖概念 | -0.82 | | 军工信息化 | 4.28 | 转基因 | -0.77 | | 同花顺果指数 | 4.17 | 创新药 | -0.60 | | 国产航母 | 3.73 | 粮食概念 | -0.60 | | 军民融合 | 3.69 | 玉米 | -0.59 | | 航空发动机 | 3.42 | 大豆 | -0.45 | | 人形机器人 | 3.20 | 农业种植 | -0.31 | | 减速器 | 3.20 | 生物质能发电 | -0.28 | | 军工 | 3.15 | 减肥药 | -0.24 | 资金面上看,今日粮食概念板块获主 ...
转基因概念下跌0.77%,9股主力资金净流出超千万元
截至5月12日收盘,转基因概念下跌0.77%,位居概念板块跌幅榜前列,板块内,神农种业、荃银高 科、敦煌种业等跌幅居前,股价上涨的有4只,涨幅居前的有芭田股份、新安股份、科前生物等,分别 上涨3.20%、1.95%、1.83%。 今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅(%) | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中船系 | 6.55 | 重组蛋白 | -0.94 | | 成飞概念 | 5.77 | 代糖概念 | -0.82 | | 军工信息化 | 4.28 | 转基因 | -0.77 | | 同花顺果指数 | 4.17 | 创新药 | -0.60 | | 国产航母 | 3.73 | 粮食概念 | -0.60 | | 军民融合 | 3.69 | 玉米 | -0.59 | | 航空发动机 | 3.42 | 大豆 | -0.45 | | 人形机器人 | 3.20 | 农业种植 | -0.31 | | 减速器 | 3.20 | 生物质能发电 | -0.28 | | 军工 | 3.15 | 减肥药 | -0.24 | 资金面上看,今日转基因概念板块获主力 ...
2025年第19周周报:它博会归来,如何看宠物经济发展新趋势?
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-12 00:30
Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [12] Core Views - The pet sector continues to show high prosperity, driven by domestic substitution and consumption upgrades, leading to a dual increase in volume and price [1][2] - The industry is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "value creation," with leading companies shifting from "manufacturing" to "intelligent manufacturing" through formula innovation and precise demand capture [2][17] - The domestic pet food market remains strong, with a significant increase in sales and exports, indicating robust growth potential for domestic brands [2][17] Summary by Sections Pet Sector - The fifth TOPS Pet Expo in Shanghai showcased over 1,200 exhibitors and 8,000+ brands, reflecting strong growth momentum in the pet industry, with a 43% year-on-year increase in attendance [1][16] - Trends in pet food are shifting towards precision nutrition, with a focus on age-specific feeding and high-end production techniques [1][16] - Key recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., Petty Co., and Lusi Co., with additional recommendations for pet medical and product companies [2][17] Swine Sector - As of May 10, the average price of live pigs was 14.90 yuan/kg, showing a slight decline, with production capacity continuing to grow [3][18] - The industry is facing a potential downturn in profitability due to weak demand and seasonal price declines [3][19] - Recommended companies include leading players such as Wens Foodstuffs and Muyuan Foods, with a focus on core assets [19] Poultry Sector - The white chicken segment is facing uncertainties in breeding imports, with a significant decline in the number of breeding stock updated [20][21] - The yellow chicken segment is expected to benefit from improved consumer demand, with stable prices observed [23] - Recommended companies include Shengnong Development and Lihua Co. for white chicken, and Wens Foodstuffs for yellow chicken [22][23] Planting Sector - The government emphasizes agricultural technology innovation and self-sufficiency in food security, with a focus on biological breeding [25][26] - Recommended companies in the seed sector include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong, with additional focus on agricultural water-saving technologies [25][26] Feed and Animal Health Sector - Hai Da Group is highlighted for its market share growth and consistent performance in the feed sector [27] - The animal health sector is seeing new opportunities in pet health products, with recommended companies including KQ Bio and Zhongmu Co. [28]