Group 1: Company Overview - The company, Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd., is involved in the whiskey business since the barrel filling ceremony in 2021, with the first batch of products meeting international standards for three years of barrel aging [2][3] - The first batch of whiskey products from the Laizhou Distillery was officially announced on November 19, 2024, and the limited edition Genesis whiskey has sold out by the end of December 2024 [2][3] Group 2: Whiskey Production and R&D Advantages - The Laizhou Distillery is one of the few globally that possesses both pot stills and column stills, allowing for the extraction of pure or complex flavors in whiskey [3] - The distillery adheres to the strictest international standards in equipment, processes, and barrel aging, ensuring high-quality whiskey products [3] - The company plans to leverage its existing research on local food and beverage flavor trends to develop whiskey products that cater to Chinese consumer preferences [3] Group 3: Future Plans and Market Strategy - As of the end of 2024, the company has stored over 400,000 barrels of whiskey for aging, with plans to continuously invest in increasing the number of whiskey barrels [3] - The company emphasizes product research and will launch more cost-effective products based on consumer research and market conditions [3] - The strategy includes expanding drinking scenarios and target demographics to maintain rapid industry growth [3]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·非白酒 百润股份（002568） 威士忌起航加速，贡献成长新动能 2025 年 02 月 21 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 2593 | 3264 | 3197 | 3754 | 4349 | | 同比（%） | (0.04) | 25.85 | (2.06) | 17.44 | 15.86 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 521.28 | 809.42 | 719.16 | 826.62 | 1,004.15 | | 同比（%） | (21.74) | 55.28 | (11.15) | 14.94 | 21.48 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.50 | 0.77 | 0.69 | 0.79 | 0.96 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 51.64 | 33.25 | 37.43 | 32.56 | 26.80 | [Table_Tag] ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is accelerating its entry into the whisky market, which is expected to contribute to new growth momentum [1] - The whisky business is progressing well with a diversified channel strategy, and the company anticipates significant revenue contributions from this segment [8] - The pre-mixed beverage segment is still in a growth phase, with potential for further market penetration [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to be 3,264 million in 2023, 3,197 million in 2024, 3,754 million in 2025, and 4,349 million in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.85%, -2.06%, 17.44%, and 15.86% respectively [1][11] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 809 million in 2023, 719 million in 2024, 827 million in 2025, and 1,004 million in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 55.28%, -11.15%, 14.94%, and 21.48% respectively [1][11] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to be 0.77 in 2023, 0.69 in 2024, 0.79 in 2025, and 0.96 in 2026 [1][11] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 25.65 yuan, with a market capitalization of 26,916.31 million [6] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 33.25 for 2023, 37.43 for 2024, 32.56 for 2025, and 26.80 for 2026 [1][11]

| 证券代码：002568 | 证券简称：百润股份 | 公告编号：2025-001 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：127046 | 债券简称：百润转债 | | 上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司 百润转债2024年第四季度转股情况公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 一、可转换公司债券发行上市概况 （一）可转换公司债券发行情况 经中国证券监督管理委员会《关于核准上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司 公开发行可转换公司债券的批复》（证监许可[2021]2939号）核准，公司于2021 年9月29日公开发行了1,128万张可转换公司债券，每张面值100元，发行总额 112,800万元。本次发行的可转换公司债券向发行人在股权登记日收市后中国证 券登记结算有限责任公司深圳分公司登记在册的原股东优先配售，原股东优先配 售后余额部分（含原股东放弃优先配售部分）采用网上通过深交所交易系统向社 会公众投资者发行，认购金额不足112,800万元的部分由主承销商包销。 （二）可转换公司债券上市情况 经深交所"深证上[2021]10 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Cautious Accumulate" [16][17][29] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 2.88% lower year-on-year, with a significant drop from 49.35% growth in the same period last year [16] - The gross profit margin increased by 3.25 percentage points to 70.11% due to a significant decrease in the cost of pre-mixed drinks [16][17] - Sales expenses rose by 27.48%, leading to a decline in net profit margin by 3.06 percentage points to 23.95% [17] Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price: 27.80 yuan [2] - One-year high/low: 27.89/15.26 yuan [3] - Circulating market value: 199.16 billion yuan [6] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024: 2.388 billion yuan, down 2.88% year-on-year [16] - Gross profit margin: 70.11% [10] - Net profit margin: 23.95% [17] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024, 2025, and 2026: 0.76, 0.80, and 0.86 yuan respectively [17] Financial Ratios - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024, 2025, and 2026: 36.71, 34.76, and 32.20 respectively [17][21] - Return on equity (ROE) forecast: 12.62% [11] - Asset-liability ratio: 42.54% [12] Future Projections - Projected revenue growth rates for 2024, 2025, and 2026: 3.60%, 4.50%, and 5.60% respectively [21][24] - Projected net profit for 2024, 2025, and 2026: 795 million, 839 million, and 906 million yuan respectively [21][24]

证券研究报告·公司深度研究·非白酒 百润股份（002568） 前瞻布局威士忌，含苞待放在蛇年 2024 年 12 月 09 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|--------|--------|--------|----------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 2593 | 3264 | 3197 | 3654 | 4124 | | 同比（ % ） | (0.04) | 25.85 | (2.06) | 14.31 | 12.85 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 521.28 | 809.42 | 769.09 | 882.68 | 1,006.94 | | 同比（ % ） | (21.74) | 55.28 | (4.98) | 14.77 | 14.08 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 0.50 | 0.77 | 0. ...

证券代码：002568 证券简称：百润股份 公告编号：2024-073 债券代码：127046 债券简称：百润转债 一、解除担保情况 （一）担保情况概述 上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）与招商银行股份 有限公司上海分行（以下简称"招行上海分行"）签订了《最高额不可撤销担保 书》（编号：5402230801），为公司之全资子公司上海巴克斯酒业营销有限公司 （以下简称"巴克斯营销"）承担最高限额为 2.5 亿元的连带保证责任；公司与 招行上海分行签订了《最高额不可撤销担保书》（编号：5402231001），为公司 之全资子公司上海锐澳商务咨询有限公司（以下简称"锐澳商务"）承担最高限 额为 2 亿元的连带保证责任。详见 2023 年 9 月 9 日、2023 年 11 月 16 日登载于 《证券时报》《上海证券报》《证券日报》《中国证券报》及巨潮 资讯网 （http://www.cninfo.com.cn）的《百润股份：关于为全资子公司提供担保额度的 进展公告》（公告编号：2023-054、2023-069）。 （二）解除担保情况 1．近日，公司接到锐澳商务、招行上海分行通知，锐澳商务已足额偿 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5]. Core Viewpoints - The launch of the "Shengzhou" single malt whisky and "Bailede" blended whisky marks a significant innovation, with both products priced at CNY 399 and limited to 20,000 bottles [2][3]. - The dual-brand strategy establishes a clear business framework, allowing for differentiation between single malt and blended whiskies, which can reduce risk and trial costs [2]. - The innovative product features, such as the use of eight different barrel types in the "Shengzhou" single malt whisky, highlight the company's competitive edge and potential for market expansion [3]. - The pricing strategy targets the mass market, appealing to younger consumers, and is positioned as a value-for-money option compared to competitors [3]. Financial Projections - The projected revenue for 2024 is CNY 3,218.40 million, reflecting a slight decline of 1.39% from the previous year, with expected growth rates of 12.53% and 15.30% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [12]. - The estimated diluted EPS for 2024 is CNY 0.71, with projections of CNY 0.86 and CNY 1.00 for 2025 and 2026 [12]. - The P/E ratios for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 34, 28, and 24, respectively, indicating a potential increase in valuation as new products are launched [4][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has launched two new whiskey products, "Lai Zhou Single Malt Whiskey" and "Bailide Blended Whiskey," both priced at CNY 399, marking a significant step in its whiskey strategy [2][3] - The company aims to create a unique Chinese whiskey experience, blending local flavors and culture, and plans to expand its product offerings to meet diverse consumer needs [3][4] - The company has established a strong production capacity in the whiskey sector, with a distillery capable of producing 400,000 barrels, and is focusing on local operations and innovative marketing strategies [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company expects total revenue to be CNY 32.4 billion in 2024, with a slight decline of 1% year-on-year, followed by growth of 14% and 13% in the subsequent years [5] - The projected net profit for 2024 is CNY 7.8 billion, reflecting a decrease of 4% year-on-year, with anticipated growth of 15% and 14% in the following years [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 32, 28, and 25 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [4][12]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.386 billion yuan for Q1-3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.88%, and a net profit of 574 million yuan, down 13.67% year-on-year. Q3 revenue was 758 million yuan, down 5.95% year-on-year, with a net profit of 172 million yuan, down 24.01%, indicating performance below expectations [1]. - The pre-mixed beverage segment generated 2.102 billion yuan in revenue for Q1-3 2024, a decline of 3.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 409 million yuan, down 14.4% year-on-year. Q3 revenue for pre-mixed beverages fell by 7% year-on-year, but the company is maintaining healthy operations to prepare for future growth [1]. - The lower-than-expected profits are attributed to increased marketing and promotional expenditures, with Q3 net profit margin down by 5.3 percentage points. Gross margin increased by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, while sales and management expense ratios rose by 3.1 and 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [1]. - The company plans to continue its 358-degree matrix strategy, exploring new flavors and promoting refreshing new products comprehensively. A new whiskey product is set to launch in November, with attention on subsequent distribution progress [1]. Financial Forecast - Revenue growth rates for 2024-2026 are adjusted to -1%, 12%, and 15%, with projected revenues of 3.22 billion, 3.60 billion, and 4.16 billion yuan, respectively. Net profit growth rates are projected at -9%, 11%, and 15%, with expected net profits of 740 million, 820 million, and 950 million yuan, respectively. Corresponding P/E ratios are 38X, 35X, and 30X [2][6]. - The pre-mixed beverage segment is expected to stabilize, while the whiskey business shows promising prospects [2]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue for 2022 was approximately 2.593 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 3.220 billion yuan for 2024. The net profit for 2022 was 521 million yuan, with a forecasted net profit of 739 million yuan for 2024 [3][6]. - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 54.41 in 2022 to 30.01 in 2026, indicating an improving valuation over time [3][8]. Key Financial Ratios - The net profit margin is projected to be 20.10% in 2022, increasing to 22.74% by 2026. The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 13.85% in 2022 to 18.74% in 2026 [8]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio is 42.54%, indicating a moderate level of debt relative to its assets [4]. Market Position - The company operates in the food and beverage industry, specifically in the non-baijiu segment, with a focus on pre-mixed beverages and whiskey products [4]. - The total market capitalization of the company is approximately 28.36 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 19.36 billion yuan [4].