Summary of the Conference Call on Baijiu Industry and Company Insights Company and Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on **Bairun Co., Ltd.**, a leading player in the **premixed cocktail market** in **Anhui Province**. The company is facing challenges in sales and market dynamics for its **Rio** brand of premixed cocktails [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Sales Performance - In **2024**, Bairun's sales in Anhui for premixed cocktails reached **¥1.18 billion**, a slight decline from **¥1.2 billion** in **2023**, but a significant increase from **¥750 million** in **2022** [2]. - The sales decline is attributed to reduced profit margins for distributors and increased competition from low-priced products on online platforms [1][3]. Market Challenges - The company is experiencing a **10% price drop** in the market due to excess inventory and aggressive discounting by distributors [3][5]. - Bairun's strategy has shifted towards channel expansion rather than consumer growth, as the market share is limited [3][31]. Product and Channel Strategy - The **Rio** brand targets consumers aged **18-35**, but male consumer growth has been limited, leading to a decline in sales of stronger products [9]. - The company has introduced various alcohol content levels but faces challenges in pricing consistency between online and offline channels [9][10]. - The **light enjoyment** product line is struggling to gain traction due to lack of dedicated marketing efforts and competition from beer [12][13]. Distribution and Inventory Management - Bairun has implemented measures to address market chaos, including penalties for distributors and reduced marketing expenses, but these are seen as temporary fixes [5][34]. - The company has a **healthy inventory turnover** target of **1.5 to 2 months**, with current levels in Anhui nearing this target, while other provinces may have longer turnover periods [18]. Competitive Landscape - Bairun's **Rio** brand maintains a competitive edge in the premixed cocktail market due to strong brand recognition and pricing strategies, despite the presence of other brands [25]. - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in the **whiskey market**, but the performance has been underwhelming, with most distributors achieving only a few million in annual sales [32]. Future Outlook - The company aims for a sales target of **¥1.44 billion** in **2025**, maintaining the same product structure as in **2024** [22]. - There is a belief that significant improvements in channel management and product offerings may take until the end of **2025** to materialize [33]. Additional Important Insights - The company lacks a dedicated team for the restaurant channel, which is seen as a significant growth area [13][14]. - The pricing structure for various products shows significant variability, with **strong refreshing** products having low margins and relying heavily on rebates for profitability [11][26][27]. - The overall market environment is expected to remain challenging, with a **30% slowdown** in sales turnover compared to the previous year [16]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the challenges and strategies of Bairun Co., Ltd. in the premixed cocktail market.

RIO主引擎失速，是百润股份业绩下滑的主要原因。 曾经RIO爆火各大快消渠道，百润股份也一举坐上预调鸡尾酒行业龙头位置。有了RIO的示范效应，越 来越多玩家涌入这一赛道，再加上市场需求下滑，如今就连RIO这个"低度酒之王"也陷入增长困境。 受夜店、餐饮等即饮场景及线上消费受冲击，去年RIO即饮、数字零售渠道收入分别同比下降43.58%、 30.75%，线下渠道也微降1.48%。去年百润股份RIO预调酒收入26.77亿元，同比降7.17%， 今年一季度，百润股份公司营业收入再降8%，其主力产品RIO预调酒收入亦再度下降。二季度，整个 酒业消费环境加速下行，百润股份营收为7.52亿元，同比下降9.0%；归母净利润为2.08亿元，同比下降 10.9%；扣非归母净利润为1.78亿元，同比下降22.6%。 上半年，百润股份酒类产品占到百润股份营收近九成，这部分收入12.97亿元，同比下滑9.35%；酒类产 品销售量同比下滑12.68%，产量同比下滑11.45%。渠道端，上半年百润股份来自线下的收入少了9%， 除了华南市场保持增长外，华北、华西和大本营华东都出现了下滑。 当然，百润股份不是没想过"自救"。前两年公司"强爽 ...

事件：公司发布2025 年中报，25H1 实现营业收入14.89 亿元，同比-8.6%；实现归母净利润3.89 亿元， 同比-3.3%；实现扣非归母净利润3.56 亿元，同比-9.0%。分季度看，25Q2 实现营业收入7.52 亿元，同 比-9.0%；实现归母净利润2.08 亿元，同比-10.9%；实现扣非归母净利润1.78 亿元，同比-22.6%。 高基数下上半年业绩小幅下滑。分业务看，25H1 公司酒类产品/食用香精分别实现营业收入12.97/1.69 亿元，同比-9.4%/-3.9%。分渠道看，25H1 预调酒线下/数字零售渠道分别实现营业收入13.11/1.55 亿 元，分别同比-9.6%/-0.6%，在即时零售景气度较高的情况下，数字零售渠道相对表现稳健。 分产品看：1）预调酒：二季度消费环境整体承压，公司以库存消化为核心工作，同步加强渠道管理、 主动收缩费用并停止授信，以维护市场秩序。 盈利预测与投资建议：我们预计公司25-26 年实现营业收入33.91/39.53亿元，同比+11.2%/+16.6%，预计 实现归母净利润8.18/10.07 亿元，同比+13.7%/+23.2%，维持"推荐"评级 ...

Core Viewpoint - RIO's parent company, Bairun Co., is facing significant performance pressure as it transitions from a period of growth driven by the "stay-at-home economy" to a decline in revenue and profit, particularly in the ready-to-drink cocktail segment [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Bairun's total revenue was 1.489 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 8.56% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 389 million yuan, down 3.32% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 356 million yuan, a decrease of 9.04% [1]. - Revenue from alcoholic beverages, which account for 88% of total revenue, was 1.297 billion yuan, down 9.35% year-on-year [1]. Market Challenges - The North and West China markets are facing significant challenges, with revenues declining by 21.43% and 23.05% respectively, despite an increase in the number of distributors [2]. - RIO is experiencing dual pressures from declining internal growth momentum and disruptive shifts in consumer value [2][3]. Product and Competitive Landscape - RIO, once a market leader in the ready-to-drink cocktail segment, is losing its growth momentum due to weak consumption scenarios and a lack of price competitiveness compared to beer [3][4]. - The rise of diverse low-alcohol beverages, such as fruit wines and non-alcoholic beers, is further eroding RIO's market share [4]. - RIO's new product, jelly wine, aims to integrate the "tipsy" experience into casual snacking, but faces challenges in consumer motivation [4]. Sales Channels - Offline channels accounted for over 89% of RIO's revenue, which saw a year-on-year decline of 9.63%, while online channels made up about 11% with a slight decline of 0.57% [4]. - RIO's low sales in ready-to-drink formats indicate a misalignment with consumer purchasing behaviors, which favor impulse buys in physical stores [5][7]. Strategic Shift - In response to the stagnation in RIO's growth, Bairun is shifting its strategic focus towards developing its whiskey business, which has begun operations and is expected to contribute to future revenue [9][10]. - The whiskey segment aims to capture different market segments, with brands like "Bailide" targeting mass consumption and "Laizhou" focusing on premium offerings [9][10]. Profitability Concerns - Despite a relatively stable asset structure, Bairun faces risks related to high sales expenses, which have pressured profit margins [14][15]. - The company's gross profit margin for its main business was 70.51%, but high sales expenses of 301 million yuan significantly impacted profitability [14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.49 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 8.6% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 390 million yuan, down 3.3% year-on-year. The decline in revenue is attributed to weak demand, particularly in the ready-to-drink segment, while the whisky segment is expected to contribute positively to revenue growth [1][3] - The company has launched new products in the ready-to-drink category and whisky, which are anticipated to drive revenue growth in the second half of 2025. The marketing strategy includes forming a specialized marketing team to enhance consumer engagement [3] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the revenue from alcoholic beverages and food flavoring was 1.3 billion yuan and 170 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9.4% and 3.9% [1] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 71.0%, with a slight decrease of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margin for alcoholic beverages decreased slightly, while the gross margin for flavoring increased by 2.0 percentage points [2] - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 770 million, 940 million, and 1.09 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.9%, 22.2%, and 15.8% [3][5]

Market Overview - On August 27, the non-liquor sector declined by 1.7% compared to the previous trading day, with *ST Lanhuang leading the decline [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3800.35, down 1.76%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12295.07, down 1.43% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the non-liquor sector showed varied performance, with 会稽山 (Kuaijishan) increasing by 0.78% to close at 23.28, while *ST Lanhuang (Lanhuang) fell by 4.47% to close at 8.34 [1][2] - Other notable declines included 重庆啤酒 (Chongqing Beer) down 1.07%, 张裕A (Zhangyu A) down 1.14%, and *ST 椰岛 (Yedao) down 1.45% [1][2] Trading Volume and Capital Flow - The non-liquor sector experienced a net outflow of 283 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 298 million yuan [2] - The trading volume for 会稽山 was 338,600 hands with a transaction value of 779 million yuan, while *ST 兰黄 had a trading volume of 57,300 hands and a transaction value of 48.47 million yuan [1][2] Capital Inflow Analysis - In terms of capital inflow, 张裕A had a net inflow of 5.04 million yuan from institutional investors, while *ST 兰黄 saw a significant net outflow of 10.63 million yuan [3] - The data indicates that retail investors were more active in the market, with notable inflows into stocks like *ST 椰岛 and 珠江啤酒 (Zhujiang Beer) [3]

证券研究报告 百润股份 (002568 CH) Q2 收入承压，期待威士忌业务表现 2025 年 8 月 27 日│中国内地 饮料 公司发布 2025 年半年报，25H1 总营收/归母净利/扣非净利 14.9/3.9/3.6 亿， 同比-8.6%/-3.3%/-9.0%；25Q2 总营收/归母净利/扣非净利 7.5/2.1/1.8 亿， 同比-9.0%/-10.9%/-22.6%。25Q2 公司仍以库存去化为主，收入同比延续承 压态势，微醺表现相对较好；近期公司前期布局的新品陆续上市，5 月底预调 酒新品轻享推出市场陆续打款发货，6 月推出果冻酒；崃州单一麦芽威士忌 6 月官宣铺货聚焦华南市场，威士忌产品顺利铺货。期待预调酒新品发布扩充 产品矩阵后稳步增长，关注威士忌铺货动销打造第二曲线。维持"买入"。 预调酒收入承压，加速开拓经销商 25H1 预调鸡尾酒/食用香精营收 13.0/1.7 亿，同比-9.4%/-3.9%，预调酒销 量/箱价同比-12.7%/+3.8%，我们预计 Q2 成熟大单品强爽/清爽同比销售承 压，微醺表现相对靠前，公司持续丰富口味/规格延长生命周期，持续推出 新品轻享和果冻酒，形成新增长 ...

老品调整去库，新品上市催化 证 券 研 究 报 告 百润股份（002568）2025 年中报点评 推荐（维持） 事项： ❖ 公司公布 2025 年半年报。25 年上半年实现营业总收入 14.9 亿元，同减 8.6%， 归母净利润 3.9 亿元，同减 3.3%；单 Q2 来看，营业总收入为 7.5 亿元，同减 9.0%，归母净利润 2.0 亿元，同减 10.9%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 3,048 | 3,320 | 3,682 | 4,053 | | 同比增速(%) | -6.6% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 10.1% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 719 | 790 | 914 | 1,051 | | 同比增速(%) | -11.2% | 9.8% | 15.6% | 15.1% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.69 | 0.75 | 0.87 | 1.00 | | 市盈率(倍) | 42 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bairun Co., Ltd. reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to a downturn in its alcoholic beverage segment, particularly the RIO ready-to-drink products, which experienced significant sales and production drops [2][4][5]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Bairun achieved revenue of 1.489 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.56% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 389 million yuan, down 3.32% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit decline of 9% [2] - In Q2 alone, revenue was 752 million yuan, reflecting a 9% year-on-year decline, while net profit fell over 10% [2] Alcoholic Beverage Segment - Revenue from alcoholic products was 1.297 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.35%, accounting for nearly 90% of Bairun's total revenue [4] - RIO's sales volume dropped by 12.68% in the first half of the year, with production also experiencing a double-digit decline [5] Product Strategy - RIO continues to focus on strengthening its "358" brand positioning and launching new products, including seasonal flavors and innovative offerings like jelly wine [5][9] - Despite these efforts, the overall downward trend in sales persists, attributed to weak offline channels, which saw a 9% revenue decline [6] Cost Management - Bairun managed to reduce advertising expenses by half, leading to a 24% year-on-year decrease in sales expenses, which helped maintain stable gross margins despite declining revenues [6][7] Whiskey Business Development - Bairun's whiskey segment, particularly the Laizhou Distillery, has launched several new products, including limited editions and a range of whiskey offerings, but has yet to significantly impact overall revenue [9][10] - As of June 2025, the distillery had accumulated 500,000 barrels, showing substantial growth from the previous year [11]

预调鸡尾酒业务方面，报告期内，公司持续完善"358"品类产品矩阵，多维度稳固品类成长。微醺系列2 月推出青梅龙井春节限定新口味，上市表现出色，单店产出位列前茅；6月推出果冻酒，带给消费者全 新Q弹口感，好喝好玩的体验获得消费者喜爱，线上首批迅速售罄；强爽系列推出茉莉青提新口味，同 期搭配了系列短剧进行宣传，短剧广获好评带动茉莉青提新品销售强劲。 8月26日，百润股份（002568）2025年半年度报告显示，公司2025上半年实现营业收入14.89亿元，同比 下降8.56%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为3.89亿元，同比下降3.32%。经营活动产生的现金流量 净额为4.91亿元，同比增长67.06%。 2025年上半年，百润股份积极有序开展各项经营活动，现有业务高质量稳健发展，新业务加快培养，数 字化管理持续推进，为实现中长期战略目标进一步夯实基础、储备动能。报告期内，公司酒类产品业务 及香精香料业务稳健运营，毛利率、净利率保持较高水平，经营性净现金流大幅优化。 报告期内，公司分别于2025年3月和2025年6月正式发布了"百利得"单一调和威士忌系列产品和"崃州"单 一麦芽威士忌系列产品，累计推出10个以上 ...