Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [5]. Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a transformation driven by health-conscious consumer trends, product innovation, and channel expansion, with companies actively enhancing their product offerings and exploring overseas markets [1][9]. - In the liquor segment, the supply side is undergoing continuous changes to seek growth, while the demand side is gradually recovering, highlighting the absolute investment value in the industry [2][3]. - The beverage sector is focusing on product innovation and network expansion to uncover growth potential, with a strong emphasis on health upgrades and premiumization [4][7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor Industry - **Water Well**: The company is optimizing its product matrix and plans to launch a new high-end product in 2025, focusing on brand collaboration and expanding its terminal network [2]. - **Jiu Gui Jiu**: The brand is implementing a strategic focus on brand depth and product line simplification, with expectations for improved sales performance [3]. - **She De Jiu Ye**: The company is maintaining its core strategy while expanding its product offerings, particularly in e-commerce, to drive growth [3]. Beverage Industry - **Kang Shi Fu**: The company is committed to innovation and quality, focusing on expanding its product range to meet diverse consumer needs [4]. - **Unified Enterprises**: The company is experiencing stable performance with a focus on product innovation and market expansion, particularly in the instant noodle and beverage segments [7]. - **Hua Run Beverage**: Short-term performance is under pressure due to competition, but long-term growth prospects remain strong due to the essential nature of its products [7]. Health and Wellness Trends - **Anqi Yeast**: The company is targeting over 10% revenue growth, with a focus on expanding its overseas market presence and maintaining cost advantages [9]. - **Xian Le Health**: The company is advancing its global strategy and product innovation to capture new consumer trends, with a focus on high-margin products [9]. - **Jian Yi Health**: The company is enhancing its probiotic offerings and expanding its product lines to meet evolving consumer demands [10]. Overall Market Trends - The food and beverage industry is witnessing a shift towards healthier products and innovative marketing strategies, with companies adapting to changing consumer preferences and exploring new growth avenues [1][4].

《底部布局，柳暗花明—行业投资策 略》-2025.11.14 《白酒底部布局，兼顾成长型标的— 行业周报》-2025.11.9 《三季报业绩压力增大，白酒报表持 续出清—行业周报》-2025.11.2 消费板块共振上涨，消费行业结构性回暖 ——行业周报 食品饮料 2025 年 11 月 16 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -14% -7% 0% 7% 14% 22% 29% 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525080001 核心观点：消费已有企稳迹象，布局机会渐行渐近 11 月 10 日-11 月 14 日，食品饮料指数涨幅为 2.8%，一级子行业排名第 5，跑赢 沪深 300 约 3.9pct，子行业中预加工食品（+6.9%）、烘焙食品（+5.1%）、乳品 （+4.3%）表现相对领先。本周消费板块集体上行，是由于 10 月 CPI 由负转正 引发催化， ...

Market Overview - The non-liquor sector increased by 0.69% compared to the previous trading day, with ST Xifa leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4000.14, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13240.62, down 0.36% [1] Stock Performance - ST Xifa (000752) closed at 11.93, up 3.38% with a trading volume of 71,300 shares and a transaction value of 84.28 million [1] - Wujing Beer (000729) closed at 12.73, up 2.33% with a trading volume of 419,300 shares [1] - Other notable performers include *ST Lanhua (000929) up 2.29%, CITIC Niyah (600084) up 1.39%, and Huishan (601579) up 0.88% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The non-liquor sector experienced a net outflow of 28.91 million from institutional investors and 32.46 million from retail investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 61.37 million [2] - The capital flow data indicates a mixed sentiment among different investor types, with retail investors showing a positive trend [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Kuaijishan (601579) had a net outflow of 57.29 million from institutional investors, while it saw a net inflow of 2.66 million from retail investors [3] - Zhirun Co. (002568) experienced a net inflow of 829.31 thousand from institutional investors, but a net outflow from retail investors [3] - Other stocks like ST Xifa (000752) and Pearl River Beer (002461) also showed varied capital flows, indicating differing investor confidence [3]

Core Viewpoint - RIO's market position has weakened significantly, with its products being replaced by competitors in the low-alcohol beverage segment, leading to declining sales and financial performance for its parent company, Bairun Co. [1][5] Group 1: Market Position and Sales Performance - RIO's products, once dominating low-alcohol beverage shelves, now occupy less than one-third of the space, with many products nearing expiration dates [3][4] - Bairun Co. reported a revenue decline of approximately 5% and a net profit decrease of about 4% in the first three quarters of the year [4][5] - The company's inventory turnover days have increased significantly, indicating slower sales, with the latest figure reaching 468.66 days [4] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The low-alcohol beverage market is becoming increasingly competitive, with brands like Suntory's Holo and 196°C gaining popularity among consumers [7][8] - The market is shifting from a blue ocean to a red ocean, with various brands, including traditional liquor companies, entering the low-alcohol segment, further squeezing RIO's market share [8][9] Group 3: Future Growth Strategies - Bairun Co. is exploring whiskey as a second growth curve, having initiated its whiskey business in 2016 and launching brands like "Laizhou" and "Bailide" [9][10] - The domestic whiskey market is expanding, with a projected capacity of 5 to 8 billion yuan and an annual growth rate of at least 15% [10][11] - However, Bairun Co. faces challenges in brand recognition and sales performance in the whiskey segment, as its products are less known compared to established brands [10][11]

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a downturn, with the Food ETF (515710) showing a decline of 0.64% as of the report time [1][2] - Key stocks in the sector, particularly in the liquor and consumer goods categories, are seeing significant drops, with Meihua Biological down over 3% and several others down more than 1% [1][2] - The report indicates that the overall performance of the food and beverage sector is under pressure due to policy impacts and increased competition, leading to reduced profit margins for companies [1][4] Group 2 - The valuation of the food and beverage sector is at a historical low, with the Food ETF's underlying index PE ratio at 21.22 times, indicating a potential opportunity for left-side positioning [3] - The report highlights that leading liquor companies are showing resilience despite the pressure on their financial statements, suggesting a potential for high-quality development in the coming year [4][5] - The demand side is expected to improve gradually, with policies likely to become less restrictive, which may drive demand recovery in the sector [5]

Core Viewpoint - Bairun Co., Ltd. has experienced a decline in stock price and financial performance, with a notable drop in revenue and net profit for the first nine months of 2025 compared to the previous year [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On November 11, Bairun's stock price fell by 2.03%, trading at 24.65 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 25.847 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, Bairun's stock price has decreased by 11.05%, with a 1.20% drop over the last five trading days and a 5.84% decline over the past 20 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Bairun reported a revenue of 2.270 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year decrease of 4.89% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 549 million CNY, down 4.35% year-on-year [2]. Group 3: Shareholder and Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, Bairun had 41,700 shareholders, an increase of 20.70% from the previous period, with an average of 17,345 circulating shares per shareholder, down 17.15% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 2.673 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 833 million CNY distributed over the last three years [3]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, the Wine ETF (512690) is the fifth largest, holding 16.793 million shares, an increase of 5.789 million shares from the previous period [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [22] Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of the liquor industry has significantly declined, entering a rapid clearing phase, but demand is expected to show weak recovery as policy pressures ease [3] - The industry is currently at a low valuation level, with pessimistic expectations fully priced in, indicating a clearer direction for future industry clearing [3] - The introduction of new tax policies in the gold sector is expected to benefit companies with brand and channel advantages, leading to a concentration of demand towards leading enterprises [4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage industry index decreased by 0.56%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.08% [4][6] - Among the sub-sectors, pre-processed foods led with a gain of 2.26%, while soft drinks saw the largest decline at -1.20% [4][9] Liquor Sector Insights - Guizhou Moutai announced a mid-term dividend of approximately 30 billion yuan and a buyback plan of 15-30 billion yuan, enhancing shareholder returns [4] - Guizhou is promoting a shift in the liquor industry from "selling liquor" to "selling lifestyle," aiming to upgrade the industry from traditional manufacturing to cultural experience [4] Gold Sector Developments - The new tax policy for gold sales, effective from November 1, is expected to increase costs for non-member companies, potentially shifting demand towards leading firms with membership qualifications [4] Consumer Goods Focus - The report suggests focusing on high-growth consumer goods companies, such as Wancheng Group and Dongpeng Beverage, which are expected to receive valuation premiums due to their growth trajectories [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The liquor sector is entering a layout phase, with the snack segment being the preferred choice for consumer goods. The food and beverage index experienced a decline of 0.6% from November 3 to November 7, ranking 25th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 1.4 percentage points. The processed food (+2.3%), baked goods (+1.7%), and meat products (+0.8%) sectors performed relatively well. The food and beverage sector has significantly underperformed the market since the beginning of 2025 due to changes in consumer environment and market style. Factors include the impact of alcohol bans, pressure on household income expectations, and a noticeable shift of funds towards technology sectors. The current underlying logic of the sector indicates that the fundamentals are nearing a bottom, with recovery expectations gradually warming up. The negative impacts on the industry have largely been released, and the marginal effects of alcohol bans are slowing down. Some companies are actively reducing supply to achieve a balance between supply and demand, alleviating channel pressures and releasing channel risks. Strengthened policy expectations are boosting demand in related consumption areas. The fundamentals are at a bottom, and the sector's valuation has dropped to a low point, with fund holdings in food and beverage remaining at a low level, indicating a relatively good chip structure. Therefore, there is no need for pessimism at this stage. Looking ahead to 2026, the main theme for the food and beverage industry is a recovery from the bottom, with the pace and strength of recovery being closely related to macroeconomic conditions. It is expected that consumer resilience will be maintained, and increased economic activity will boost business consumption [4][12][13]. Summary by Sections Weekly Viewpoints - The liquor sector is entering a layout phase, with the snack segment being the preferred choice for consumer goods. The food and beverage index experienced a decline of 0.6% from November 3 to November 7, ranking 25th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 1.4 percentage points. The processed food (+2.3%), baked goods (+1.7%), and meat products (+0.8%) sectors performed relatively well [12][14]. Market Performance - The food and beverage index declined by 0.6%, ranking 25th out of 28 sectors, and underperformed the CSI 300 by about 1.4 percentage points. Leading individual stocks included Anji Food, Huifa Food, and Barbie Food, while Jinzi Ham, Jiu Gui Jiu, and Gu Qing Gong Jiu saw significant declines [14][19]. Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased. For instance, the price of whole milk powder at GDT auction was $3,503 per ton, down 3.0% month-on-month and 5.7% year-on-year. The domestic fresh milk price was 3.0 yuan per kilogram, down 0.3% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year [19][21]. Liquor Industry News - The launch of the 2025 special edition of Langpai Lang was announced, with a suggested retail price of 299 yuan per bottle. The product features classic packaging elements and is limited in availability. Additionally, significant growth in white liquor sales was reported during the Double 11 shopping event, with brands like Moutai and Wuliangye seeing year-on-year increases exceeding 100% [47][48]. Recommended Portfolio - The recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Weilong Delicious, and Bairun Shares. Guizhou Moutai is focusing on sustainable development despite short-term demand pressures. Shanxi Fenjiu has high mid-term growth certainty. Ximai Food is expanding rapidly in new channels, while Weilong Delicious is stabilizing its base with new product launches. Bairun Shares is improving its pre-mixed liquor trends [5][54].

Core Points - The company Baorun Co., Ltd. announced that its controlling shareholder and actual controller, Liu Xiaodong, has completed the stock pledge release process at GF Securities Co., Ltd. [2] Summary by Category Company Actions - Liu Xiaodong released a total of 24,600,000 shares from pledge [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that BaiRun Co., Ltd. has announced the pledge of shares by its executive, Liu Xiaodong, and provided details on its revenue composition for the first half of 2025 [1] - As of the announcement date, Liu Xiaodong has pledged a total of 17.6 million shares, which accounts for 4.85% of his total holdings [1] - For the first half of 2025, BaiRun's revenue composition is as follows: pre-mixed cocktails account for 87.14%, flavor and fragrance manufacturing accounts for 11.34%, and other businesses account for 1.52% [1] Group 2 - As of the report, BaiRun Co., Ltd. has a market capitalization of 25.4 billion yuan [1]