Equity – Asia Research 供需出清迎拐点 Turning Point in Supply and Demand Equilibrium 訾猛Meng Zi m.zi@htisec.com 颜慧菁Huijing Yan hj.yan@htisec.com 程碧升Bisheng Cheng bs.cheng@htisec.com 张宇轩Yuxuan Zhang yx.zhang@htisec.com 4 Nov 2025 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券 研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请 参阅附录。(Please see appendix for English translation of the disclaimer) 投资要点 国泰海通证券2026年度策略会 01 投资建议：成长为先，供需出清迎拐点 请参阅附注免责声明 2 02 03 04 05 国泰海通证券2026年度策略 ...

百润股份（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 002568） 公司点评 | 经营趋稳，环比改善 | | --- | ——百润股份 25Q3 点评 | 投资评级：买入（维持） [Table_Rank] | | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025-11-04 | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 25.14 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 31.70/22.28 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1,049 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本（百万股） | 723 | | 流通股比例（%） | 68.93 | | 总市值（亿元） | 264 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 182 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -22% -9% 4% 17% 30% 11/24 2/25 5/25 8/25 百润股份 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：邓欣 执业证书号：S0010524010001 邮箱：dengxin@hazq.com 分析师：韦香怡 执业证书号：S0010525060001 邮箱：we ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 2.27 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 4.89% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 549 million yuan, down 4.35% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 517 million yuan, a decrease of 7.93% [2][4]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 781 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.99%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 6.76% to 160 million yuan [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's liquor business generated a main business income of 1.978 billion yuan and a net profit of 381 million yuan [9]. - The net cash flow from operating activities increased from 539 million yuan in the previous year to 755 million yuan this year, attributed to improved accounts receivable management and receipt of support funds [9]. - The net cash flow from investment activities improved from -741 million yuan to -429 million yuan, mainly due to reduced capital expenditures and equity acquisition expenses [9]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 decreased by 2.15 percentage points to 20.52%, while the gross profit margin slightly increased by 0.01 percentage points to 70.19% [9]. - The selling expense ratio increased by 3.24 percentage points, contributing to the decline in net profit [9]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates gradual recovery in the sales of pre-mixed cocktails, with inventory levels currently deemed reasonable, suggesting potential for increased sales volume in the future [9]. - The whiskey business is progressing steadily and is expected to become a new growth driver for the company [9]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are 0.68 yuan and 0.80 yuan, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 38 and 32 times [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][12][15] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 780 million yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, ending a five-quarter decline in revenue. The improvement in the pre-mixed liquor business and the contribution from the whiskey segment were noted as key factors [1][10] - The gross margin remained stable, while sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios increased by 3.2, 0.5, 0.1, and -0.1 percentage points respectively, primarily due to the initial development phase of the whiskey business [2][11] - The company has actively improved accounts receivable management, resulting in a significant reduction of 65.5% in accounts receivable balance compared to the beginning of the year, indicating improved revenue quality [2][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 160 million yuan, down 6.8% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was also 160 million yuan, down 5.4% year-on-year [1][10] - The revenue from the liquor business in Q3 was 680 million yuan, up 1.5% year-on-year, with expectations of a narrowing decline in pre-mixed liquor revenue and increased contributions from the whiskey business [1][10] Investment Recommendations and Profit Forecasts - The company is expected to see a recovery in revenue growth in the pre-mixed liquor segment in Q4 2025, supported by improved channel inventory management and the introduction of new products [3][12] - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 3.04 billion, 3.30 billion, and 3.56 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 730 million, 820 million, and 911 million yuan [3][12][14] - The current price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 36, 32, and 29 times respectively, reflecting the company's strong market position and growth potential in the whiskey segment [3][12][15]

Core Insights - The food and beverage sector has underperformed the market, with a decline of 1.6% from January to October 2025, lagging behind the CSI 300 by approximately 37.2 percentage points, ranking last among primary sub-industries [4][11][25] - The snack segment has shown better performance with a growth of 32.5%, while beer, seasoning, and liquor have experienced declines of 9.7%, 6.5%, and 4.8% respectively [4][11][25] - The sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio has decreased by 10.4% compared to the end of 2024, with an expected net profit growth of 5.4% for 2025, leading to a 5.6% decline in market capitalization [4][17][20] Market Performance - The food and beverage sector has underperformed the market, with a decline of 1.6% from January to October 2025, ranking last among primary sub-industries [4][11] - The snack segment has shown better performance with a growth of 32.5%, while beer, seasoning, and liquor have experienced declines of 9.7%, 6.5%, and 4.8% respectively [4][11] - The sector's PE ratio has decreased by 10.4% compared to the end of 2024, with an expected net profit growth of 5.4% for 2025, leading to a 5.6% decline in market capitalization [4][17] Fund Holdings - In Q3 2025, the allocation of food and beverage in the overall market funds dropped to a new low of 6.4%, down from 8.0% in Q2 2025, marking the lowest level since 2020 [5][37] - The allocation in active equity funds also decreased from 5.6% in Q2 2025 to 4.1% in Q3 2025, indicating a significant reduction in food and beverage exposure [5][37] - The white liquor segment has seen a reduction in fund allocation, with companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Shede Liquor gaining more market favor due to their performance [5][42] Industry Judgment - The macroeconomic environment shows a weak recovery, with China's GDP growth at 4.8% in Q3 2025, slightly down from Q2 2025 [6][46] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.5% year-on-year in Q3 2025, reflecting a slower recovery pace, primarily due to the impact of the alcohol ban on dining consumption [6][46] - The food manufacturing sector has faced pressure, with revenue growth of only 1.5% and profit growth of 2.1% from January to September 2025, indicating a downward trend [6][52] Investment Opportunities - The food and beverage industry is expected to see a recovery from its bottom, with a focus on resilient consumer spending and improved economic activity [7][65] - The white liquor sector is nearing a left-side layout zone, suggesting gradual investment opportunities in companies like Kweichow Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao [7][68] - The snack segment is recommended for investment due to its growth potential, with companies like Wei Long and Ximai Foods highlighted for their market opportunities [7][69][62]

Core Viewpoint - BaiRun Co., Ltd. is a leading company in the pre-mixed cocktail industry in China, with strong brand and technological barriers, and has shown impressive financial performance in recent quarters [1][2]. Group 1: Business Performance - In Q3 2025, BaiRun's revenue reached 2.27 billion yuan, ranking first among nine companies in the industry, with the second place, Zhangyu A, at 2.116 billion yuan [2]. - The net profit for the same period was 549 million yuan, also the highest in the industry, with Zhangyu A at 192 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Financial Ratios - As of Q3 2025, BaiRun's debt-to-asset ratio was 41.65%, a decrease from 42.54% year-on-year, but still above the industry average of 28.63% [3]. - The gross profit margin was 70.28%, slightly up from 70.11% year-on-year, significantly higher than the industry average of 47.51% [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders increased by 20.70% to 41,700, while the average number of circulating A-shares held per account decreased by 17.15% to 17,300 [5]. - The top ten circulating shareholders included the liquor ETF (512690), which increased its holdings by 5.789 million shares [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts expect BaiRun's revenue to grow to 3.1 billion yuan in 2025, 3.528 billion yuan in 2026, and 4.082 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 2%, 14%, and 16% respectively [5]. - Projected net profits for the same years are 706 million yuan, 794 million yuan, and 908 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -2%, +12%, and +14% respectively [5]. - The company is expected to see a positive trend in its pre-mixed cocktail and whiskey businesses, with improvements in new product contributions and sales networks [6].

Market Overview - The non-liquor sector increased by 0.1% on October 31, with *ST Yedao leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3954.79, down 0.81%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13378.21, down 1.14% [1] Stock Performance - The top performers in the non-liquor sector included: - *ST Yedao: Closed at 6.70, up 1.67% with a trading volume of 76,500 shares [1] - Zhirun Co.: Closed at 25.18, up 1.37% with a trading volume of 80,700 shares [1] - Jinfeng Wine: Closed at 5.71, up 1.24% with a trading volume of 90,100 shares [1] - Other notable stocks included: - Huichuan Beer: Closed at 11.41, up 1.06% [1] - ST Xifa: Closed at 11.25, up 0.81% [1] Capital Flow - The non-liquor sector experienced a net outflow of 44.38 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 51.71 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for specific stocks showed: - *ST Yedao: Net outflow of 6.65 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Zhujiang Beer: Net inflow of 328,580 yuan from institutional investors [3] - Huichuan Beer: Net inflow of 105,040 yuan from institutional investors [3]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the wealth management market in China has seen a significant increase in scale, reaching a new high despite valuation rectification pressures, with a third-quarter increase of 1.46 trillion yuan, which is 620 billion yuan more than the same period last year [5] - The report indicates that the financial institutions' deposit growth has slowed down, with a total increase of 4.76 trillion yuan in deposits in the third quarter, which is a decrease of 400 billion yuan year-on-year [5] - The wealth management and bond fund scales have shown a year-on-year decrease in the second half of the year, while deposits have started to recover [5] Group 2 - The report discusses the growth potential of the pool cleaning robot industry, which has a current market size of 2.5 billion USD and is expected to grow to 4.21 billion USD by 2029, with a CAGR of 11.1% from 2024 to 2029 [6] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the pool cleaning robot market, holding a 9.2% market share and ranking third globally, with the top five manufacturers accounting for approximately 74.9% of the market [6] - The report emphasizes the company's competitive advantages, including strong R&D capabilities, comprehensive product offerings, and a robust multi-channel sales strategy [6] Group 3 - The report notes that the company has experienced a slowdown in revenue growth, with a 2025 year-to-date revenue of 1.76 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.7% increase year-on-year, while net profit has decreased by 29% [11] - The company is expected to face continued pressure on profitability due to significant investments in new product molds [11] - The report projects net profits for the company to be 121 million yuan, 145 million yuan, and 171 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a decline in 2025 followed by growth in subsequent years [11] Group 4 - The report indicates that the company has achieved a significant increase in revenue and net profit, with a third-quarter revenue of 19.68 billion yuan, representing a 129.19% year-on-year growth [31] - The new game "杖剑传说" has contributed significantly to the company's revenue growth, with total revenue from this game reaching 11.66 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [31] - The report highlights the company's strong performance in overseas markets, with a 59.46% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue [33]

Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights the recent performance of the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index, showing a significant decline over the past year, with the Shanghai Composite down by 32% and the ChiNext down by 16% [1][2] Group 2: Industry Insights - The report discusses the strong performance of the power equipment and non-bank financial sectors, with power equipment showing a rise of 4.79% and non-bank financials increasing by 2.08% in the latest trading session [1] - Conversely, the banking sector experienced a decline of 1.98%, indicating a challenging environment for traditional financial institutions [2] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The report emphasizes a dual-driven strategy focusing on technology and PPI trading, suggesting that AI and self-controlled technology will lead the market, supported by stable dividends and sectors like gold and military [6] - The recommended industry sectors for November include social services, non-bank financials, and public utilities, indicating a diversified approach to investment [7] Group 4: Company-Specific Updates - Celestica reported a strong Q3 performance with revenues of $3.19 billion, a 28% year-over-year increase, and raised its full-year revenue guidance to $12.2 billion, reflecting confidence in the AI infrastructure market [20] - Tesla plans to launch its Optimus V3 robot by Q1 2026, with a production capacity of 1 million units per year, showcasing advancements in robotics and AI [29][30] - The report notes that the food and beverage sector, particularly companies like Hai Tian Wei Ye, has shown steady revenue growth of 2.5% and profit growth of 3.4% in Q3 2025, highlighting resilience in challenging market conditions [51]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has returned to positive revenue growth in Q3, but profit growth is impacted by increased expenses. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 2.27 billion yuan, down 4.9% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 550 million yuan, down 4.4% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, revenue was 780 million yuan, up 3.0% year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 6.8% to 160 million yuan. The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 730 million yuan, 850 million yuan, and 990 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 1.1%, 16.9%, and 16.7% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 36.0, 30.8, and 26.4 for the respective years [4][5][6][8] Revenue and Profit Analysis - Q3 revenue from the liquor business showed a positive growth rate, with Q3 revenue reaching 680 million yuan, up 1.5% year-on-year. The revenue from food flavoring and other segments was 290 million yuan for the first three quarters, up 2.5% year-on-year, and 100 million yuan in Q3, up 14.5% year-on-year. The overall revenue growth turned positive due to the recovery in liquor sales and double-digit growth in flavoring segments [5][6] Business Segment Performance - The pre-mixed liquor segment showed signs of improvement, with a narrowing decline in revenue. The company optimized its distributor structure and implemented digital marketing strategies, leading to improved sales. New products such as jelly liquor and light enjoyment were launched in Q3, receiving positive market feedback. The whiskey business is also progressing steadily, focusing on high-end channels such as convenience stores and whiskey bars [6][7] Financial Metrics - The gross margin remained stable at 70.19%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.01 percentage points. However, the net profit margin decreased by 2.15 percentage points to 20.52% due to increased sales and management expenses, primarily related to the promotion of new pre-mixed liquor products and marketing activities [7][8] Financial Forecasts - The company expects revenues to recover in the coming years, with projected revenues of 3.069 billion yuan in 2025, 3.536 billion yuan in 2026, and 4.08 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 0.7%, 15.2%, and 15.4% respectively. The net profit is expected to grow steadily, with EPS projected at 0.69 yuan, 0.81 yuan, and 0.95 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [8][10]