证券研究报告·公司点评报告·非白酒 百润股份（002568） 执业证书：S0600524120010 such@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 郭晓东 执业证书：S0600525040001 guoxd@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 于思淼 执业证书：S0600123070030 yusm@dwzq.com.cn 股价走势 -17% -9% -1% 7% 15% 23% 31% 39% 47% 55% 2024/6/20 2024/10/19 2025/2/17 2025/6/18 百润股份 沪深300 市场数据 崃州新品正式上市，第二曲线渐入佳境 2025 年 06 月 20 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3,264 | 3,048 | 3,499 | 3,993 | 4,701 | | 同比（%） | 25.85 | (6.61) | 14.80 | 14.11 | 17.74 ...

Core Viewpoint - Baijun Co., Ltd. reported a decline in both revenue and net profit for the year 2024, while executive compensation saw an increase, raising questions about management practices and performance alignment [1][3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of approximately 3.048 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 6.61% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was about 719 million yuan, down 11.15% compared to the previous year [3]. Executive Compensation - Executive compensation for 2024 was notably high, with Vice President Li Yongfeng earning 1.697 million yuan, surpassing other executives [3]. - Other vice presidents, Ma Liang and Lin Liying, received salaries of 1.645 million yuan and 1.56 million yuan, respectively [3]. - Chairman Liu Xiaodong's salary was reported at 1.38 million yuan, while the board secretary Wang Chen earned 131,500 yuan [3]. Management Background - Li Yongfeng, born in 1973 and holding a Master's degree in Business Administration, has a relevant background in the company's core business [3]. - He worked at Shanghai Baijun Investment Holding Group from 2016 to September 2021, serving as the General Manager of the Flavor Division [3]. - Li was promoted to Vice President in September 2024, raising questions about whether his reported salary reflects the full year or only the period after his promotion [3]. Shareholding Information - Despite Li Yongfeng's high salary, he holds only 28,000 shares, significantly lower than Lin Liying's 3.768 million shares [3].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Views - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in the soft drink and low-alcohol segments due to new products, low base effects, and the upcoming peak season [4][5][15] - The white liquor sector is recommended with a focus on Moutai and Fenjiu, while the yellow wine sector is under observation for data validation [3][18] - The report identifies four key themes in the consumer goods sector: cost control, new consumption trends, potential performance elasticity in Q2, and thematic expectations [18][22] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - From May 26 to May 30, the food and beverage sector declined by 1.06%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.03% [24] - Notable performances included soft drinks (+9.27%), other alcoholic beverages (+7.13%), and beer (+3.22%) [24] White and Yellow Liquor - The white liquor sector saw a decline of 2.76%, attributed to recent regulations and seasonal factors [3] - Shanxi Fenjiu aims for national expansion and product growth, indicating a strategic opportunity during the industry's adjustment phase [3][18] Beer and Beverage - The beer sector increased by 3.22%, supported by seasonal demand and promotional activities [14] - The report highlights the potential of the soft drink and low-alcohol segments, with significant growth in companies like Li Ziyuan and Dongpeng Beverage [15][22] Consumer Goods - The consumer goods sector is recommended based on four main themes: cost control, new consumption, potential performance elasticity, and thematic expectations [18][22] - The report suggests focusing on companies that can leverage these themes, such as Ximai Food and H&H [22] Investment Recommendations - Top picks include soft drinks and low-alcohol products like Li Ziyuan, Chengde Lulou, and Dongpeng Beverage [5][22] - For the white liquor sector, leading companies like Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai are recommended [5][22] - The report also suggests monitoring companies in the consumer goods sector that align with the identified themes [22]

债券代码：127046 债券简称：百润转债 证券代码：002568 证券简称：百润股份 公告编号：2025-027 上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）因实施 2024 年 年度权益分派，根据《上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司公开发行可转换公司 债券募集说明书》中"转股价格的调整方式及计算公式"条款的规定，自 2025 年 5 月 22 日起至本次权益分派股权登记日止暂停转股。详见公司于 2025 年 5 月 21 日在《证券时报》《中国证券报》《上海证券报》《证券日报》和巨潮资 讯网（http://www.cninfo.com.cn）披露的《关于实施权益分派期间百润转债暂停 转股的公告》（公告编号：2025-022）。 根据相关规定，"百润转债"将于 2024 年度权益分派股权登记日（即 2025 年 6 月 4 日）后的第一个交易日（即 2025 年 6 月 5 日）起恢复转股。敬请公司 可转换公司债券持有人注意。 上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in the soft drink and low-alcohol segments due to new products, low base effects, and the upcoming peak season [4][5][15] - The white liquor sector is recommended with a focus on Moutai and Fenjiu, while the yellow wine sector is under observation for data validation [3][18] - The report identifies four key themes in the consumer goods sector: cost control, new consumption trends, potential performance elasticity in Q2, and thematic expectations [18][22] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - From May 26 to May 30, the food and beverage sector declined by 1.06%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.03% [24] - Notable performances included soft drinks (+9.27%), other alcoholic beverages (+7.13%), and beer (+3.22%) [24] White and Yellow Wine - The white liquor sector saw a decline of 2.76%, attributed to recent regulations and seasonal factors [3] - Fenjiu aims for national expansion and product growth, indicating a strategic opportunity during the industry's adjustment phase [3][18] Beer and Beverage - The beer sector increased by 3.22%, supported by seasonal demand and promotional activities [14] - The report highlights the potential in the soft drink and low-alcohol segments, driven by new marketing strategies and upcoming sales events [15][22] Consumer Goods - The report recommends focusing on four main themes: cost control, new consumption logic, potential performance elasticity, and thematic expectations [18][22] - Specific companies to watch include Ximai Foods, Li Ziyuan, and Sanhua Foods, among others [22] Investment Recommendations - Top picks include soft drinks and low-alcohol products such as Li Ziyuan, Chengde Lulou, and Dongpeng Beverage [5][22] - In the white liquor sector, Moutai and Fenjiu are highlighted for their strong alpha and benefits from market concentration [5][22]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" with a target price of 36.18 CNY, reflecting a reasonable valuation level of 27 times the earnings per share for 2027 [4][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a second growth curve, driven by its dual attributes in beverages and small category wines, particularly in the whiskey market, which is still in its early stages in China [2][3]. - The report predicts earnings per share of 0.81 CNY, 1.00 CNY, and 1.34 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3,634 million CNY, 4,288 million CNY, and 5,410 million CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.2%, 18.0%, and 26.2% respectively [4]. - Operating profit is forecasted to be 1,091 million CNY, 1,353 million CNY, and 1,774 million CNY for the same years, with growth rates of 18.1%, 24.1%, and 31.1% respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 847 million CNY, 1,051 million CNY, and 1,402 million CNY, with growth rates of 17.8%, 24.0%, and 33.5% respectively [4]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 66.7% in 2023 to 72.9% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to stabilize around 23.3% to 25.9% during the same period [4]. Market Potential - The whiskey market in China is currently underdeveloped, with only 0.8% of the total liquor market share, indicating significant growth potential as domestic brands gain traction [13][20]. - The report highlights that the domestic whiskey market is expected to grow from 55 billion CNY in 2023 to approximately 83 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 11% [39][42]. - The company aims to leverage its experience in the ready-to-drink segment to replicate its success in the whiskey market, focusing on consumer education and strategic marketing [8][36]. Strategic Positioning - The company is building a whiskey matrix with its brands, including Baileys and Laizhou, to establish itself as a leader in the domestic whiskey market [33][56]. - The report emphasizes the importance of localizing imported products to cater to Chinese consumer preferences, which has been a successful strategy in other markets [43][44]. - The company is targeting the mass market with affordable pricing strategies, which is crucial for penetrating the whiskey market in China [57].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" with a target price of 36.18 CNY, reflecting a reasonable valuation level of 27 times the earnings per share for 2027 [4][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a second growth curve, driven by its dual attributes in beverages and small category wines, particularly in the whiskey market, which is still in its early stages in China [2][3]. - The whiskey market in China has significant growth potential, with the current market size being only 55 billion CNY, representing a mere 0.8% of the total liquor market [13][20]. - The company has successfully localized imported products, as evidenced by its previous success in the ready-to-drink (RTD) segment, and aims to replicate this success in the whiskey market [8][36]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for earnings per share from 2025 to 2027 is 0.81 CNY, 1.00 CNY, and 1.34 CNY respectively, with a projected revenue growth of 19.2% in 2025, 18.0% in 2026, and 26.2% in 2027 [4]. - The company’s revenue is expected to reach 3,634 million CNY in 2025, 4,288 million CNY in 2026, and 5,410 million CNY in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [4]. Market Analysis - The whiskey segment is projected to grow significantly, with the potential for domestic brands to capture a larger market share, aiming for a 50% domestic market penetration by leveraging local production and unique flavor profiles [37][39]. - The report highlights that the company’s whiskey products are positioned in the mass market price range, which is crucial for stimulating initial consumer interest and expanding market share [57][58]. Strategic Positioning - The company is building a liquor matrix with its whiskey brands, including Baileys and Laizhou, to establish itself as a leader in the domestic whiskey market [33]. - The marketing strategy focuses on experiential marketing and collaboration with local distributors to enhance brand recognition and consumer engagement [34][36].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that multiple semiconductor and food & beverage stocks have received upgraded ratings from various institutions [1] - In May, a total of 71 institutions conducted 5,151 ratings, with 1,859 stocks receiving a "buy" rating, which includes buy, overweight, strong buy, and recommended [1] - The semiconductor sector saw several stocks, including Zhongwei Semiconductor, Shengke Communication, Weicai Technology, and Naxin Micro, being upgraded to "buy" ratings [1] Group 2 - Additionally, certain food and beverage stocks, such as Lianhua Holdings, Bairun Co., and Dongpeng Beverage, also received rating upgrades, with their latest ratings being "buy" [1]

债券代码：127046 债券简称：百润转债 证券代码：002568 证券简称：百润股份 公告编号：2025-026 上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司 关于为全资子公司提供担保额度的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、解除担保情况 （一）担保情况概述 上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）与上海农村商业 银行股份有限公司宝山支行（以下简称"上海农商银行宝山支行"）签订了《保 证合同》（编号：31065244070364），为公司之全资子公司上海巴克斯酒业营销 有限公司（以下简称"巴克斯营销"）承担最高限额为 1 亿元的连带责任保证， 详见 2024 年 5 月 18 日登载于《证券时报》《上海证券报》《证券日报》《中国 证券报》及巨潮资讯网（http://www.cninfo.com.cn）的《百润股份：关于为全资 子公司提供担保额度的进展公告》（公告编号：2024-034）。 （二）解除担保情况 近日，公司接到巴克斯营销、上海农商银行宝山支行通知，巴克斯营销已足 额偿还全部本息，根据《保证合同》（编号：310652440 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market continues to show a fluctuating trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3342.93 points, up 0.07% [1][2] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.04%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.02% [1][2] Non-Wine Beverage Sector - The non-wine beverage sector has shown strong performance, with the non-wine index rising by 2.19%, leading all secondary industries [4] - Kweichow Moutai's stock hit the daily limit, marking its sixth rise in four days, with a cumulative increase of over 70% since May [2][4] - Cocktail concept stocks, such as Bai Run Co., saw a rise of over 5%, while other beer stocks like Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer also experienced significant gains [2][4] Deep Sea Technology Sector - The deep sea technology concept has gained momentum, with stocks like Giant Lifting Equipment hitting the daily limit [8] - The marine engineering equipment sector saw multiple stocks, including Giant Lifting Equipment and Xingwang Yuda, reach their daily limit, with some stocks increasing by over 10% [8][9] - Analysis indicates that the current deep sea technology concept shares similarities with the low-altitude economy trend of 2024, suggesting potential for further development [10] Restaurant Industry - In April, China's restaurant revenue reached 416.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, indicating a recovery in the dining market [6] - Analysts suggest that the restaurant supply chain is a core beneficiary of this recovery, with a focus on companies that demonstrate strong operational resilience and low valuations [6]