Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that BaiRun Co., Ltd. (SZ 002568) has conducted an investor survey, providing insights into its business operations and revenue composition [1] - As of the first half of 2025, BaiRun's revenue composition is as follows: pre-mixed cocktails account for 87.14%, flavor and fragrance manufacturing accounts for 11.34%, and other businesses account for 1.52% [1] - The current market capitalization of BaiRun Co., Ltd. is 29.2 billion yuan [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Cautious Accumulate" [5][12] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.489 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 356 million yuan, down 9.04% year-on-year [5] - Revenue from the pre-mixed drinks and flavoring segments both declined year-on-year, with pre-mixed drinks generating 1.297 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.35%, and flavoring generating 169 million yuan, a decrease of 3.91% [5] - The decline in revenue was primarily driven by offline channels, while online revenue for pre-mixed drinks remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease of 0.57% [5][6] - The company has experienced five consecutive quarters of negative revenue growth, with significant declines in the North and West China markets, while the South China market showed growth [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 70.33% in the first half of 2025, an increase of 0.25 percentage points year-on-year, mainly driven by the flavoring segment [5][6] - The sales expense ratio decreased significantly, primarily due to a reduction in advertising and storage costs, with the sales expense ratio down 4.18 percentage points to 20.21% [5] - The forecast for earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 0.74 yuan, 0.85 yuan, and 0.92 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 37.97, 32.87, and 30.29 [5][9]

证券代码：002568 证券简称：百润股份 上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-04-0827 | | ■特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 投资者关系活动 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | 类别 | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | | | □其他 （请文字说明其他活动内容） 银河证券 刘来珍；长江证券 冯萱 ；中金公司 宗旭豪 ； | | | 国金证券 陈宇君；瑞银证券 黄任悠；国海证券 刘洁铭 ； | | | 财通证券 吴文德；西部证券 田地 ；国泰海通 徐洋 ； | | 参与单位名称及 | 华西证券 寇星 ；兴业证券 汪润 ；中信证券 张晟 ； | | 人员姓名 | 财通证券 吴文德；国盛证券 陈熠 ；浙商证券 满静雅 ； | | | 中泰证券 何长天；华创证券 寸特彬；华安证券 韦香怡 ； | | | 华福证券 童杰 ；国信证券 杨苑 ；华源证券 林若尧 ； | | | 申万宏源 严泽楠；开源证券 张恒玮。 | | 时间 | 年 月 日 2025 8 27 15:00-16:30 | | 地点 | 公司会议室 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][10][14] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 1.49 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 390 million yuan, down 3.3% year-on-year [1][8] - The pre-mixed cocktail business continues to face pressure, while the liquor business has officially launched and is in its early growth phase [1][10] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 due to slower-than-expected recovery in overall revenue, with new projections of 3.19 billion yuan and 3.49 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [3][10] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the gross margin was stable at 70.3%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3 percentage points [2][9] - The sales expense ratio decreased by 4.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a high base from marketing expenses in the first quarter of 2024 [2][9] - Operating cash flow improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 67.1%, attributed to better management of accounts receivable [2][9] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company expects to achieve total revenues of 3.19 billion yuan, 3.49 billion yuan, and 3.80 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.8%, 9.3%, and 8.9% [3][10] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is 790 million yuan, 900 million yuan, and 1.03 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 10.1%, 13.6%, and 14.7% [3][10] - The company maintains a positive outlook on the growth potential of its liquor business, particularly with the recent launch of new products [3][10]

Group 1: Investment Banking and Brokerage Industry - As of August 25, 2025, the Wind All A index has increased by 16% and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 index has risen by 28% since Q3 2025, indicating significant market activity[5] - The self-operated equity business is a key source of performance elasticity for brokerages, with a focus on self-operated business complemented by investment banking and private equity investments[6] - From 2015 to 2024, the scale of fixed income self-operated assets increased from CNY 908.1 billion to CNY 4.5 trillion, while equity self-operated assets decreased from CNY 449.7 billion to CNY 399.2 billion, indicating a shift in focus[6] Group 2: Solid-State Battery Investment Opportunities - Solid-state batteries are expected to become a key development direction due to their advantages in safety and energy density, with significant market potential in consumer batteries and electric vehicles[8] - The core materials for solid-state electrolytes include oxides, polymers, halides, and sulfides, with sulfides being a promising choice for future all-solid-state batteries[9] - The industrialization of semi-solid-state batteries has progressed rapidly, with several automakers achieving mass production since 2022, while all-solid-state batteries are expected to achieve mass production around 2027[10] Group 3: Solar Energy Industry - The solar energy sector is currently at a bottoming phase, with a recent meeting involving six departments aimed at regulating competition and promoting fair practices in the industry[17] - The average price of various solar components, including N-type silicon wafers and TOPCon batteries, has remained stable, indicating a steady market environment[18] - The solar sector's valuation as of August 22, 2025, is at 20.93 times TTM, which is relatively low compared to other sectors, suggesting potential investment opportunities[20]

Core Insights - Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd. (Bairun Shares) reported a revenue of 1.489 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 389 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [2] - The company's main business is divided into two segments: alcoholic beverages and flavoring agents, with alcoholic beverages accounting for 88.49% of total revenue [2] - Bairun Shares maintains a leading position in the pre-mixed cocktail market, with its core brand "RIO" holding the number one market share nationally for several consecutive years [2] Business Segments - The alcoholic beverages segment, primarily consisting of pre-mixed cocktails and spirits, is the core revenue source for the company [2] - The flavoring agents segment contributes 11.51% to the total revenue [2] Market Position and Strategy - Bairun Shares continues to strengthen its brand advantage through channel innovation, product innovation, and digital marketing [2] - The company invests in enhancing R&D capabilities, expanding its product matrix, and strengthening brand building to address increasing market competition [2] - The Laizhou Distillery, a key whiskey production base, leads in production capacity and barrel aging quantity, supporting the long-term development of the spirits business [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The pre-mixed cocktail business remains under pressure, while the whiskey segment is expected to provide new growth momentum [4][9] - The company has launched new products in the pre-mixed cocktail category and is focusing on expanding its whiskey offerings [7][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 390 million yuan, down 3.3% year-on-year [4] - The sales volume of alcoholic products in the first half of 2025 was 15.03 million boxes, a decline of 12.68% year-on-year, attributed to weak demand for pre-mixed cocktails [5] Product and Channel Analysis - The company’s main business revenue from alcoholic products was 1.297 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, down 9.35% year-on-year [5] - The digital retail channel showed resilience, generating revenue of 155 million yuan, a slight decline of 0.57% year-on-year, while offline channels saw a revenue drop of 9.63% [5] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 70.33%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.26 percentage points [6] - The company reduced its sales expense ratio to 20.21% in the first half of 2025, down 4.18 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to optimized expense allocation [6] Future Outlook - The company is enhancing its product matrix for pre-mixed cocktails and has introduced new flavors to stabilize category growth [7] - The whiskey business is expected to drive revenue growth, with the company having launched new whiskey products and expanding its distribution channels [8][9] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 767 million, 909 million, and 1.055 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward revision of 5% for 2025 [9] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 38x for 2025, 32x for 2026, and 28x for 2027 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The report on Bairun Co., Ltd. indicates a continued adjustment in the ready-to-drink (RTD) liquor segment, while there are expectations for growth in the whisky category, leading to a "buy" rating for the company [1][4]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Bairun's revenue was 1.489 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.56%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 389 million yuan, down 3.32% year-on-year [2]. - In Q2 2025, revenue was 752 million yuan, a decline of 8.98% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 208 million yuan, down 10.85% year-on-year [2]. - The RTD liquor segment saw revenue of 1.297 billion yuan, down 9.35% year-on-year, while the food flavoring segment generated 169 million yuan, down 3.91% year-on-year [2]. Product and Channel Analysis - The RTD liquor segment continues to face challenges, but new products like "Mikushen" are expected to perform well, while whisky products are gradually contributing to revenue growth [2][4]. - Revenue from offline channels was 1.311 billion yuan, down 9.63% year-on-year, while digital retail channels generated 155 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.57% [2]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The net profit margin after deducting non-recurring items in Q2 2025 decreased by 4.18 percentage points to 23.71%, primarily due to a decline in gross margin and an increase in expense ratios [3]. - The gross margin fell by 0.79 percentage points to 71.00%, influenced by reduced economies of scale and changes in product mix [3]. Future Outlook - The company is focusing on inventory reduction in the RTD liquor segment and expects new product launches to improve sales performance [4]. - The whisky segment is anticipated to have significant growth potential, with ongoing marketing investments needed to reach a sales turning point [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been updated to 786 million yuan, 902 million yuan, and 1.048 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 37, 33, and 28 times [4].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·非白酒 百润股份（002568） 2025 年中报点评：预调酒主业延续调整，期 待威士忌打开成长空间 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3,264 | 3,048 | 3,276 | 3,720 | 4,245 | | 同比（%） | 25.85 | (6.61) | 7.46 | 13.56 | 14.13 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 809.42 | 719.14 | 786.09 | 901.70 | 1,048.35 | | 同比（%） | 55.28 | (11.15) | 9.31 | 14.71 | 16.26 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.77 | 0.69 | 0.75 | 0.86 | 1.00 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 36.24 | 40.78 | 37.31 | 32.53 | 27.98 | [Table_Tag ...

Core Viewpoint - 百润股份 reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a focus on improving profitability metrics such as gross and net profit margins [1][3]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 was 1.489 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.56% year-on-year [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 389 million yuan, down 3.32% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, total revenue was 752 million yuan, a decline of 8.98% year-on-year, while net profit was 208 million yuan, down 10.85% year-on-year [1]. - Gross margin increased to 70.33%, up 0.36% year-on-year, and net margin rose to 26.14%, an increase of 6.48% year-on-year [1]. - Total operating expenses were 427 million yuan, accounting for 28.7% of revenue, a decrease of 8.41% year-on-year [1]. Cash Flow and Debt Management - Net cash flow from operating activities increased by 67.06%, attributed to improved management of accounts receivable [3]. - The company’s interest-bearing debt rose to 2.495 billion yuan, an increase of 16.66% year-on-year [1]. - The interest-bearing asset-liability ratio reached 29.97% [5]. Investment and Market Position - The company’s return on invested capital (ROIC) was 11.41% last year, indicating average capital returns [3]. - The company has a history of stable financial performance, with only one loss year since its IPO [3]. - The largest fund holding in 百润股份 is the Penghua Zhongzheng Wine ETF, which has a scale of 12.64 billion yuan [6]. Future Expectations - Analysts expect the company’s performance in 2025 to reach 807 million yuan, with an average earnings per share of 0.77 yuan [5].