百润股份 20250912 摘要 2025 年上半年，百润股份预调酒业务整体下滑约 9%，但微醺系列实现 双位数增长，强爽和清爽系列则分别出现双位数和个位数的下滑，表明 市场偏好正在发生变化。 公司于 2025 年三季度推出果冻酒和轻享系列高度数预调酒等新品，目 标三季度实现 6,000 万元销售额，旨在通过产品创新稳定并提升业绩， 收窄预调酒业务降幅。 百润股份积极发展威士忌业务，已推出百利得调和威士忌和莱州单一麦 芽威士忌等新品，预计三季度末完成 85%终端铺货，但动销反馈平淡， 需持续优化执行方式。 中国威士忌市场规模约为 50 至 60 亿元，过去 8 至 9 年进口金额年均复 合增长率达 21%，但仍由保乐力加、帝亚吉欧等外资品牌主导，百润股 份有望通过本土化分销体系改变这一格局。 百润股份拥有超过 50 万桶基酒储备，并创新使用中国黄酒桶等进行威 士忌酿造，预调酒与威士忌在消费者培育上存在共振效应，可借鉴美国 和日本市场预调酒与威士忌销售比例关系。 Q&A 百润股份在预调酒业务方面的表现如何？ 百润股份在预调酒业务方面经历了显著的增长。2018 年至 2024 年，公司通 过推出微醺和强爽两大单品 ...

食品饮料 2025 年 09 月 14 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 0% 10% 19% 29% 38% 48% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《白酒筑底，新消费领航—行业周报》 -2025.9.7 《中报综述：传统消费微光渐明，新 消 费 繁 花 正 盛 — 行 业 投 资 策 略 》 -2025.9.4 《中报承压下微光渐显，业绩分化中 孕育新机—行业周报》-2025.8.31 白酒底部等待回暖，西麦食养赛道可期 风险提示：经济下行、食品安全、原料价格波动、消费需求复苏低于预期等。 ——行业周报 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 证书编号：S0790525080001 zhangsimin@kysec.cn 核心观点：白酒基本面逐渐稳定，健康营养孕育西麦第二增长曲线 9 月 8 日-9 月 12 日，食品饮料指数涨幅为 1.1%，一级子行业排名第 17，跑输沪 深 300 约 0.3pct，子行业中肉制品（+3.0%）、白酒（+1.7%）、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The transfer of shares from Liu Xiaodong, the actual controller of Bairun Co., Ltd., to Liu Jianguo raises complex signals amid the company's declining performance, particularly in its main product, RIO cocktails [1][5]. Group 1: Share Transfer Details - Liu Xiaodong plans to transfer 63 million shares, representing 6.01% of the total share capital, to Liu Jianguo for a total price of RMB 1.47 billion, at a price of RMB 23.337 per share [3][4]. - Following the transfer, Liu Jianguo will hold 6.01% of Bairun's shares, while Liu Xiaodong will retain 34.58% of the shares, ensuring no change in the controlling shareholder [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Bairun's financial report for the first half of 2025 shows a revenue decline of 8.56% to RMB 1.489 billion and a net profit decrease of 3.32% to RMB 389 million [5][6]. - The company's main product, alcoholic beverages, which account for 88% of revenue, saw a 9.35% decline in sales, totaling RMB 1.297 billion [6]. Group 3: Market Strategy and Challenges - Bairun is attempting to diversify its product line by introducing whiskey, with plans to produce 1 million barrels of original liquor over the next 4 to 5 years [6][7]. - The whiskey market remains niche, with challenges in converting cocktail consumers to whiskey drinkers, as the product is still in the early stages of market acceptance [7].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a rating of "Buy" for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of 10.21%, 13.80%, and 15.81% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with absolute values of 33.59 billion, 38.23 billion, and 44.27 billion [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to grow by 7.53%, 18.45%, and 16.85% over the same period, with absolute values of 7.73 billion, 9.16 billion, and 10.70 billion [5] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company launched its liquor business in 2016 and has made significant investments, exceeding 35 billion, to establish a production capacity of 26,000 tons for grain-based spirits and 4,000 tons for malt whiskey by 2024 [13][14] - The company aims to achieve a raw liquor reserve target of 1 million barrels over the next five years, positioning itself as the largest liquor manufacturer in China [13][18] Product Development and Market Strategy - The company has successfully localized imported products, particularly in the ready-to-drink cocktail market, where it holds the top market share in China [34] - The product matrix has been refined to meet diverse consumer preferences, with a focus on high-quality and innovative offerings [22][23] - The company has developed a dual-brand strategy for whiskey, with a focus on high-quality products that cater to both traditional and modern consumer tastes [22] Market Potential and Consumer Insights - The domestic whiskey market is expected to double in size, driven by the growing consumer interest in premium and differentiated products [4] - The company has identified a significant overlap in the consumer demographics of its ready-to-drink cocktails and whiskey, particularly among younger consumers aged 18-39 [59] Financial Projections - Revenue and net profit forecasts indicate a positive growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 33.59 billion, 38.23 billion, and 44.27 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.69 in 2024 to 1.02 by 2027, reflecting the company's growth strategy and market positioning [6]

Market Overview - On September 12, the non-liquor sector declined by 1.05%, with Bai Run Co., Ltd. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3883.69, up 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12996.38, up 0.13% [1] Stock Performance - The following stocks in the non-liquor sector experienced notable price changes: - Bai Run Co., Ltd. (002568) closed at 25.91, down 1.78% with a trading volume of 95,000 shares and a turnover of 248 million yuan [2] - ST Xifa (000752) closed at 11.96, down 1.56% with a trading volume of 67,800 shares and a turnover of 82.15 million yuan [2] - Xianjing Beer (000729) closed at 11.82, down 1.34% with a trading volume of 227,600 shares and a turnover of 270 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The non-liquor sector saw a net outflow of 145 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 123 million yuan [2][3] - The following stocks had significant capital flows: - Gu Yue Long Shan (600059) had a net inflow of 11.18 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 7.20 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Chongqing Beer (600132) had a net inflow of 7.43 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 14.01 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Summary of Baijiu Co. Conference Call Industry Overview - The pre-mixed alcoholic beverage market in China is expected to experience rapid expansion, driven by changes in consumer demographics, channel development, and consumption scenarios, similar to the Japanese market [2][5][6] - The current scale of the pre-mixed beverage market in China is approximately 70 billion yuan in production and 150 billion yuan in retail [6] - The whisky market in China has seen significant growth, with retail sales increasing from about 1 billion yuan in 2013 to an estimated 55-60 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of around 20% [17] Company Insights - Baijiu Co. is positioned as a leading player in the pre-mixed beverage market, holding over 60% market share [2][7] - The company has introduced innovative products such as jelly wine and the light enjoyment series, contributing to revenue growth [2][14] - Baijiu Co. has established a clear product matrix with three core offerings: 3-degree light, 5-degree refreshing, and 8-degree strong beverages [10] Key Points from the Conference Call - **Operational Turnaround**: The company anticipates a turning point in operations in Q3, with expected revenue growth driven by stable performance of the 358 series and new product contributions [2][4] - **Whisky Business Growth**: Baijiu Co. has become the largest whisky producer in China, with projected whisky revenue reaching 300 million yuan for the year [3][22] - **Marketing Strategy**: The company has refined its marketing approach since 2016, focusing on a combination of online and offline strategies to enhance cost efficiency and drive sales growth [9] - **Product Development**: The company has successfully launched new products targeting specific consumer segments, such as the micro-drunk series aimed at young women and the refreshing series for home dining [11][12] Competitive Landscape - The pre-mixed beverage market is expected to see a concentration of leading brands while smaller brands become more fragmented [8] - Baijiu Co.'s long-standing presence and continuous innovation provide it with a competitive edge in the market [7] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the growth potential of both its pre-mixed beverage and whisky segments, with expectations of improved revenue and profit margins in the coming quarters [15][22] - The introduction of new products is expected to complement existing offerings and fill gaps in the market, particularly in the mid-alcohol segment [14][15] Additional Insights - The whisky segment is primarily targeted at young male consumers aged 18-29, with a focus on home consumption and small gatherings [17] - Baijiu Co. has established a dual-brand strategy with Bailede and Laizhou, aiming to enhance market penetration and brand recognition [18][22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd. has seen a significant increase in its stock price, with a rise of 5.11% to 26.53 CNY per share, and a total market capitalization of 27.818 billion CNY [1] - The company was established on June 19, 1997, and went public on March 25, 2011. Its main business involves the research, production, and sales of flavor and fragrance products, as well as pre-mixed cocktails [1] - The revenue composition of the company is primarily from alcoholic products at 87.14%, followed by food flavoring at 11.34%, and other sources at 1.52% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, a fund under Shanzheng Asset Management has heavily invested in Bairun shares, with an increase of 1,500 shares in the second quarter, bringing the total to 19,200 shares, which constitutes 4.35% of the fund's net value [2] - The fund, Shanzheng Asset Management Selected Industry Mixed Initiation A (018750), was established on December 26, 2023, with a latest scale of 10.9956 million CNY. It has achieved a year-to-date return of 5.45% and a one-year return of 33.79% [2] - The fund manager, Zhuang Bo, has a tenure of 10 years and 179 days, with the fund's total asset scale at 11.3079 million CNY. The best return during his tenure is 24.93%, while the worst is -3% [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Liu Xiaodong, the controlling shareholder and actual controller of the company, plans to transfer 63 million shares of the company's unrestricted circulating shares to Liu Jianguo, which represents 6.01% of the total share capital, for a consideration of 1.47 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - This equity change will not result in a change of control of the company, as Liu Xiaodong will remain the controlling shareholder and actual controller [1]

百润股份（002568）(002568.SZ)公告，公司控股股东、实际控制人刘晓东先生拟向受让方刘建国先生 协议转让其所持有的6300万股公司无限售流通股股份，占公司总股本的6.01%，股份转让价款为14.7亿 元。本次权益变动不会导致公司控制权发生变更，刘晓东先生仍为公司控股股东、实际控制人。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Liu Xiaodong, the controlling shareholder of BaiRun Co., plans to transfer 63 million shares, representing 6.01% of the company's total equity, to Liu Jianguo for a total consideration of RMB 1.47 billion, at a price of RMB 23.34 per share, which is calculated at a 10% discount to the closing price prior to the agreement [1][3]. Group 1 - Liu Jianguo holds 38.72% of the shares in Honma Golf through Kouunn Holdings Limited and has no other significant equity interests in listed companies [2]. - Liu Jianguo is a businessman from Wenzhou, Zhejiang, with a background in managing various companies, including Zhejiang Pentium Electric Co., and has significant ownership in Shanghai Pentium Enterprise Group [2]. - BaiRun Co. is well-known for its pre-mixed cocktails, particularly the RIO brand, and has seen its stock price increase nearly 15 times over two and a half years since mid-November 2018 [3]. Group 2 - BaiRun Co. began its foray into whiskey around 2020, raising RMB 1.006 billion through a private placement to fund whiskey aging projects, which are essential for producing the base liquor for pre-mixed cocktails [3]. - After the share transfer, Liu Xiaodong's holding will decrease to 34.58%, and the transfer aims to diversify the shareholder structure and bring in external resources to promote company development [3][4]. - Liu Jianguo has committed not to participate in the management of BaiRun Co. and will not reduce his holdings in the company for twelve months following the transfer [4].