证券研究报告·公司点评报告·非白酒 百润股份（002568） 执业证书：S0600524120010 such@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 郭晓东 执业证书：S0600525040001 guoxd@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 于思淼 执业证书：S0600123070030 yusm@dwzq.com.cn 股价走势 -17% -9% -1% 7% 15% 23% 31% 39% 47% 55% 2024/6/20 2024/10/19 2025/2/17 2025/6/18 百润股份 沪深300 市场数据 崃州新品正式上市，第二曲线渐入佳境 2025 年 06 月 20 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3,264 | 3,048 | 3,499 | 3,993 | 4,701 | | 同比（%） | 25.85 | (6.61) | 14.80 | 14.11 | 17.74 ...

运营商财经网通过梳理信息得知，李永峰于1973年出生,拥有工商管理硕士学位。其履历与公司核心业 务高度关联，他2016年至2021年9月,在上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司工作,任香精事业部总经理。 2024年9月升任副总经理，不知他2024年薪酬是按照全年计算，还是按照他升任副总经理后计算。 据百润股份2024年度报告显示，去年实现营收约30.48亿元，同比下降6.61%，实现归属净利润约7.19亿 元，同比下降11.15%。 值得关注的是，百润股份高管2024年薪酬十分可观，副总经理李永峰以169.7万元位于前列，高于其他 四位高管。其中，同职级的副总经理马良、林丽莺薪酬分别为164.5万元与156万元。董事长刘晓东薪酬 为138万元，董事会秘书王晨薪酬为13.15万元。 运营商财经网 实习生许小婧/文 近期，百润股份发布2024年年报，财报数据显示，去年公司营收和净利润出现下滑，公司高管薪酬同比 有所增长，李永峰虽任副总经理一职不足一年，但其2024年薪酬高于同级副总，也远超董事长刘晓东。 据财报数据显示，副总经理李永峰薪酬虽高于公司其他高管，但其持股数仅2.8万，低于同职级副总经 理林丽莺的持股数37 ...

债券代码：127046 债券简称：百润转债 证券代码：002568 证券简称：百润股份 公告编号：2025-027 上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）因实施 2024 年 年度权益分派，根据《上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司公开发行可转换公司 债券募集说明书》中"转股价格的调整方式及计算公式"条款的规定，自 2025 年 5 月 22 日起至本次权益分派股权登记日止暂停转股。详见公司于 2025 年 5 月 21 日在《证券时报》《中国证券报》《上海证券报》《证券日报》和巨潮资 讯网（http://www.cninfo.com.cn）披露的《关于实施权益分派期间百润转债暂停 转股的公告》（公告编号：2025-022）。 根据相关规定，"百润转债"将于 2024 年度权益分派股权登记日（即 2025 年 6 月 4 日）后的第一个交易日（即 2025 年 6 月 5 日）起恢复转股。敬请公司 可转换公司债券持有人注意。 上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" with a target price of 36.18 CNY, reflecting a reasonable valuation level of 27 times the earnings per share for 2027 [4][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a second growth curve, driven by its dual attributes in beverages and small category wines, particularly in the whiskey market, which is still in its early stages in China [2][3]. - The report predicts earnings per share of 0.81 CNY, 1.00 CNY, and 1.34 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3,634 million CNY, 4,288 million CNY, and 5,410 million CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.2%, 18.0%, and 26.2% respectively [4]. - Operating profit is forecasted to be 1,091 million CNY, 1,353 million CNY, and 1,774 million CNY for the same years, with growth rates of 18.1%, 24.1%, and 31.1% respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 847 million CNY, 1,051 million CNY, and 1,402 million CNY, with growth rates of 17.8%, 24.0%, and 33.5% respectively [4]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 66.7% in 2023 to 72.9% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to stabilize around 23.3% to 25.9% during the same period [4]. Market Potential - The whiskey market in China is currently underdeveloped, with only 0.8% of the total liquor market share, indicating significant growth potential as domestic brands gain traction [13][20]. - The report highlights that the domestic whiskey market is expected to grow from 55 billion CNY in 2023 to approximately 83 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 11% [39][42]. - The company aims to leverage its experience in the ready-to-drink segment to replicate its success in the whiskey market, focusing on consumer education and strategic marketing [8][36]. Strategic Positioning - The company is building a whiskey matrix with its brands, including Baileys and Laizhou, to establish itself as a leader in the domestic whiskey market [33][56]. - The report emphasizes the importance of localizing imported products to cater to Chinese consumer preferences, which has been a successful strategy in other markets [43][44]. - The company is targeting the mass market with affordable pricing strategies, which is crucial for penetrating the whiskey market in China [57].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" with a target price of 36.18 CNY, reflecting a reasonable valuation level of 27 times the earnings per share for 2027 [4][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a second growth curve, driven by its dual attributes in beverages and small category wines, particularly in the whiskey market, which is still in its early stages in China [2][3]. - The whiskey market in China has significant growth potential, with the current market size being only 55 billion CNY, representing a mere 0.8% of the total liquor market [13][20]. - The company has successfully localized imported products, as evidenced by its previous success in the ready-to-drink (RTD) segment, and aims to replicate this success in the whiskey market [8][36]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for earnings per share from 2025 to 2027 is 0.81 CNY, 1.00 CNY, and 1.34 CNY respectively, with a projected revenue growth of 19.2% in 2025, 18.0% in 2026, and 26.2% in 2027 [4]. - The company’s revenue is expected to reach 3,634 million CNY in 2025, 4,288 million CNY in 2026, and 5,410 million CNY in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [4]. Market Analysis - The whiskey segment is projected to grow significantly, with the potential for domestic brands to capture a larger market share, aiming for a 50% domestic market penetration by leveraging local production and unique flavor profiles [37][39]. - The report highlights that the company’s whiskey products are positioned in the mass market price range, which is crucial for stimulating initial consumer interest and expanding market share [57][58]. Strategic Positioning - The company is building a liquor matrix with its whiskey brands, including Baileys and Laizhou, to establish itself as a leader in the domestic whiskey market [33]. - The marketing strategy focuses on experiential marketing and collaboration with local distributors to enhance brand recognition and consumer engagement [34][36].

债券代码：127046 债券简称：百润转债 证券代码：002568 证券简称：百润股份 公告编号：2025-026 上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司 关于为全资子公司提供担保额度的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、解除担保情况 （一）担保情况概述 上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）与上海农村商业 银行股份有限公司宝山支行（以下简称"上海农商银行宝山支行"）签订了《保 证合同》（编号：31065244070364），为公司之全资子公司上海巴克斯酒业营销 有限公司（以下简称"巴克斯营销"）承担最高限额为 1 亿元的连带责任保证， 详见 2024 年 5 月 18 日登载于《证券时报》《上海证券报》《证券日报》《中国 证券报》及巨潮资讯网（http://www.cninfo.com.cn）的《百润股份：关于为全资 子公司提供担保额度的进展公告》（公告编号：2024-034）。 （二）解除担保情况 近日，公司接到巴克斯营销、上海农商银行宝山支行通知，巴克斯营销已足 额偿还全部本息，根据《保证合同》（编号：310652440 ...

今日早盘，A股市场延续震荡态势。截至午间休市，上证指数报3342.93点，涨0.07%。深证成指跌 0.04%，创业板指涨0.02%。 中国酒业协会日前发文表示，随着人们生活水平的提高，健康、养生意识的增强，消费者对酒类产品的 需求日益多元化、个性化。黄酒作为低度、健康、养生的酒类代表，其独特的口感和丰富的营养价值， 正逐渐被更多消费者认可和喜爱。特别是年轻一代消费群体，他们追求品质生活，注重文化体验，对传 统文化有着浓厚的兴趣，这为黄酒开拓年轻市场奠定了坚实的基础。 国家统计局发布的数据显示，今年4月，全国餐饮收入4167亿元，同比增长5.2%；限额以上单位餐饮收 入1230亿元，同比增长3.7%。餐饮市场的持续回暖，为消费市场的稳定增长提供了有力支撑。 东海证券分析表示，在消费券等政策刺激下，餐饮场景有望回暖，餐饮供应链为核心受益板块。长期来 看，行业为稀缺成长赛道，一方面餐饮企业"三高"痛点日益突出（高人工、高原材料成本、高租金）， 成本控制需求强烈；另一方面，对比成熟市场，我国连锁化率仍有较大提升空间。建议关注经营韧性 强、低估值的餐饮供应链相关公司。 | 上证指数 深证成指 | | 北证50 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The consumer sector is expected to improve due to increased domestic demand policies and declining upstream raw material prices, leading to a potential recovery in the food and beverage industry [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 28, 2025, the CSI Major Consumer Index (000932) rose by 0.52%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as BaiRun Co. (002568) up 5.42% and Dongpeng Beverage (605499) up 3.59% [1]. - The Major Consumer ETF (159672) also increased by 0.52%, with the latest price at 0.78 yuan [1]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The white liquor industry is currently in a destocking phase, with a potential recovery in business demand expected in 2025 due to economic stimulus policies. This includes a rebound in wedding banquets and graduation celebrations, which may alleviate inventory pressure [2]. - In the mass food sector, demand recovery and cost reductions are anticipated, with the restaurant industry's revival likely to boost the demand for the food supply chain. Certain sub-sectors are experiencing declining raw material costs, benefiting profit margins and overall performance [2]. Group 3: ETF Performance and Valuation - The Major Consumer ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 24.35% since its inception, with an average return of 5.36% during rising months [3]. - As of May 27, 2025, the ETF's maximum drawdown this year was 5.57%, with a management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10%, making it one of the lowest in its category [3]. - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the CSI Major Consumer Index is 19.72, indicating it is at a historical low, below 95.63% of the past year [3]. Group 4: Top Holdings - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Major Consumer Index accounted for 67.16% of the index, including Yili Co. (600887) and Kweichow Moutai (600519) [3].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.048 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 6.61% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company, excluding non-recurring items, was 672 million yuan, down 13.65% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 662 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.97% [1] - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 737 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.11%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 10.39% to 178 million yuan [1] Revenue Breakdown - The significant decline in revenue was primarily due to a decrease in the sales of pre-mixed drinks, which recorded a revenue of 2.677 billion yuan in 2024, down 7.17% year-on-year [2] - The revenue from food flavoring remained stable, reaching 337 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [2] - As of 2024, pre-mixed drinks accounted for 87.83% of total sales, while food flavoring represented 11.04% [2] Sales Channel Performance - Offline sales saw a slight decline, while ready-to-drink and digital retail channels experienced significant drops of 43.58% and 30.75% respectively [3] - The number of distributors decreased by 4% to 2068 by the end of 2024, with a notable 16% reduction in the East China market [3] - The decline in sales was attributed to the closure of entertainment venues, impacting the ready-to-drink segment [3] Profitability Analysis - Despite a rise in gross margin, the net profit margin declined due to higher selling, general, and administrative expenses, which reached 35.45% in 2024, up 4.51 percentage points year-on-year [4] - In Q1 2025, the expense ratio decreased significantly, leading to a net profit margin increase of 3.68 percentage points [4] - The company is diversifying into the spirits business, with initial revenue generated in Q1 2025 [4] Spirits Business Development - The company aims to become a leader in the domestic whiskey industry, focusing on high-quality whiskey production [5] - The whiskey aging project is progressing as planned, with the capacity to manage 1 million oak barrels [5] - Two whiskey products were launched in 2024, and the spirits segment is expected to contribute to future growth [5] Earnings Forecast - Projected earnings per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.78 yuan, 0.93 yuan, and 1.07 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 34.65, 29.13, and 25.28 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Accumulate" rating for the company [6][9][10] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.048 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 6.61%, and a net profit of 672 million yuan, down 13.65% year-on-year [6][10] - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to the drop in the sales of pre-mixed alcoholic beverages, which accounted for 87.83% of total sales, while food flavoring revenue showed stable growth [6][7] - The company is diversifying its business by developing a liquor segment, aiming to become a leader in the domestic whiskey market [6][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 737 million yuan, a decrease of 8.11% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 10.39% to 178 million yuan [6][10] - The gross margin for pre-mixed beverages improved to 70.03% in 2024, up 2.42 percentage points year-on-year, despite a decrease in sales volume [6][7] Sales Channels - Offline sales saw a slight decline, while ready-to-drink and digital retail channels experienced significant drops of 43.58% and 30.75% respectively [6][9] - The number of distributors decreased by 4% to 2068 by the end of 2024, impacting sales negatively [6][9] Future Projections - The company forecasts earnings per share of 0.78 yuan, 0.93 yuan, and 1.07 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 34.65, 29.13, and 25.28 [6][10]