Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the pig price has bottomed out and is rebounding, but the overall trend of breeding stock reduction remains unchanged. The short-term increase in breeding stock does not alter the long-term reduction trend [3][12] - The beef price continues to rise, but there is cautious replenishment in the industry due to differing expectations. The cattle inventory decreased in Q3 2025 [4][28] - The report highlights the acceleration of pig farming losses and the strengthening logic of domestic pet products, recommending several companies in the pig farming and feed sectors [5][31][34] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The proportion of breeding stock in actual sales increased to 2.09%, with a significant rise in breeding barn utilization rate to 44.8% [17][12] - As of October 24, 2025, the average price of pigs in China was 11.81 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.63 CNY/kg, but a year-on-year decrease of 5.74% [12][3] Weekly Perspective - The report notes that pig and piglet prices are in a loss situation, leading to an accelerated reduction in breeding stock. The report recommends companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and others [5][31] - The feed sector is benefiting from the post-cycle of poultry and livestock, with strong overseas demand supporting prices. Recommended companies include Haida Group and New Hope [31] Market Performance (October 20-24) - The agriculture sector underperformed the market by 4.24 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.88% while the agriculture index fell by 1.36% [35][37] - The report highlights that the fishery sector led the gains among sub-sectors [35] Price Tracking (October 20-24) - The average price of pigs was 11.82 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.65 CNY/kg. The average price of piglets was 17.66 CNY/kg, down by 0.33 CNY/kg [43][44] - The average wholesale price of beef was 66.21 CNY/kg, with a slight increase of 0.21 CNY/kg [48]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that Henan province plays a crucial role in China's food industry, particularly in the prepared food sector, making it a significant contributor to the national dining table [4][10]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Henan is home to several popular new consumer brands, including Mixue Ice City and Pop Mart, which have emerged from the province [4]. - The province has a high concentration of food processing companies, with over 4,000 related enterprises, ranking first in the country [9]. - Major food brands from Henan include Sanquan Foods, Shuanghui Development, and Si Nian Foods, which dominate various segments of the prepared food market [6][7]. Group 2: Market Share and Production - Sanquan Foods holds a market share of 20% to 40% in the frozen food sector, with a sales scale of 7.434 billion yuan in 2023 [6]. - Shuanghui Development, a leader in meat products, reported a sales scale of 60.1 billion yuan, capturing 5% of the market [6]. - Henan produces a significant portion of China's staple foods, including 1/4 of the country's steamed buns, 1/3 of instant noodles, and 1/2 of ham sausages [10]. Group 3: Agricultural Advantages - As a major agricultural province, Henan is known as the "granary of the world," with its grain output second only to Heilongjiang in 2024 [10]. - The province's meat, egg, and milk production totals 13.37 million tons, ranking third nationally, with a leading position in pig farming [14]. - The availability of local raw materials, such as flour and pork, combined with a well-established food production and management system, supports the growth of the prepared food industry [14]. Group 4: Strategic Location - Henan's geographical position in the center of China, along with its developed transportation infrastructure, provides a logistical advantage for the food industry [14]. - The province's population offers a substantial market and labor force, further enhancing its role in the prepared food sector [14].

Core Insights - The aquaculture sector experienced a slight decline of 0.08% on October 24, with Xiaoming Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3950.31, up 0.71%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13289.18, up 2.02% [1] Aquaculture Sector Performance - Yisheng Co. (002458) saw a closing price of 8.85, with an increase of 2.67% and a trading volume of 150,400 shares, totaling a transaction value of 134 million yuan [1] - Shengnong Development (002299) closed at 16.28, up 1.12%, with a trading volume of 136,800 shares and a transaction value of 222 million yuan [1] - Other notable performances include: - ST Tianshan (300313) at 8.43, up 0.60% [1] - Jinjidun Agricultural (000048) at 17.03, up 0.53% [1] - Muyuan Foods (002714) at 48.86, up 0.31% [1] - Xiaoming Co. (300967) led the decline with a closing price of 21.20, down 3.02% [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The aquaculture sector saw a net outflow of 153 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 11.67 million yuan [2] - Notable capital flows include: - Luoniushan (000735) with a net inflow of 5.14 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Yike Foods (301116) with a net outflow of 1.90 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Yisheng Co. (002458) experienced a net outflow of 2.22 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Group 1 - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector experienced a decline today, with the only agricultural ETF (159275) showing a slight drop of 0.1% after a brief rise [1][2] - Key stocks in the sector, including COFCO Technology, Xiaoming Co., and Zhongshui Fishery, saw significant declines, with COFCO Technology dropping over 4% [1][2] - Recent capital inflows into agricultural ETFs indicate a potential stabilization in the sector's performance, despite short-term pressures on pig prices [1][5] Group 2 - The agricultural and fishery sector's valuation remains relatively low, with the market's first agricultural ETF (159275) showing a price-to-book ratio of 2.54, which is at a low percentile compared to the last decade [3] - Analysts suggest that there are opportunities in the pig farming sector, particularly for companies with strong growth in output and stable operations [4] - The recent fluctuations in pork and piglet prices, along with increased slaughter rates, indicate a complex market environment influenced by various pressures [5] Group 3 - The agricultural ETF (159275) tracks the CSI Agricultural Index, which includes leading companies in the sector, with approximately 40% exposure to pig-related businesses [4][6] - The ongoing policy adjustments and market conditions are expected to accelerate the reduction of industry capacity, potentially leading to a price increase in the second half of next year [4][5]

Group 1 - The agricultural sector is experiencing adjustments, yet funds are increasingly investing in related ETFs, with nearly 2 billion yuan accumulated since September 29 [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting on October 21 to enhance grain yield through technology integration and support for genetically modified crops, benefiting related seed and planting companies [1] - In September, listed pig companies reported a decline in sales revenue, totaling 21.647 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.74% and a month-on-month decrease of 10.77%, primarily due to falling pig prices [2] Group 2 - The average selling price of pigs dropped over 30% year-on-year and 5.42% month-on-month, reaching the lowest level since 2022 [2] - The Ministry of Agriculture and other authorities are focusing on controlling production capacity and reducing weight, which is expected to accelerate capacity reduction in the fourth quarter [2] - The current valuation of the agricultural sector is relatively low, with the agricultural ETF's price-to-book ratio at 2.54, indicating a good investment opportunity [2] Group 3 - Recent fluctuations in pork and piglet prices, along with increased slaughter rates, indicate a tightening supply in the pig farming industry [3] - The number of breeding sows is decreasing, and self-breeding operations are facing losses, leading to enhanced capacity reduction motivation [3] - In the livestock sector, beef prices are expected to rise in the medium to long term, while dairy prices remain low, and poultry prices are stable [3] Group 4 - The first agricultural ETF (159275) tracks the CSI Agricultural Index, with major holdings in leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, comprising about 40% of the index [4] - The ETF focuses on high-concentration industries, with over 90% of the top ten industries in agriculture, breeding, and feed sectors [4] - Investors can also access the agricultural ETF through linked funds for broader exposure [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Biotech Index (970038) closed at 2259.94 points, down 0.06%, with a trading volume of 17.182 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.24% on October 23 [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The Biotech Index had 26 stocks rising and 22 stocks falling on the day, with Huace Testing leading the gainers at a 3.03% increase, while Jingxin Pharmaceutical led the decliners with a 4.17% drop [1] - The top ten constituent stocks of the Biotech Index include: - Mindray Medical (13.81% weight, latest price 221.80, market cap 268.92 billion yuan) [1] - Changchun High-tech (5.41% weight, latest price 117.65, market cap 47.994 billion yuan) [1] - Kanglong Chemical (4.66% weight, latest price 31.44, market cap 55.906 billion yuan) [1] - Others include Shishi Yushang, Biao Ge Pharmaceutical, and more, all within the biotech and related sectors [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The Biotech Index constituents experienced a net outflow of 502 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 354 million yuan [3] - Detailed capital flow for key stocks includes: - Deep Technology: Main fund net inflow of 82.5949 million yuan, retail net inflow of 21.4 million yuan [3] - Mindray Medical: Main fund net inflow of 66.9479 million yuan, retail net outflow of 3.6088 million yuan [3] - Other stocks like Muyuan Foods and Kanglong Chemical also showed varying levels of net inflow and outflow from different investor categories [3]

Core Insights - The aquaculture sector experienced a slight increase of 0.28% on October 23, with Xiaoming Co. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3922.41, up 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13025.45, also up 0.22% [1] Aquaculture Sector Performance - Xiaoming Co. (300967) closed at 21.86, up 2.82% with a trading volume of 105,300 shares and a transaction value of 230 million [1] - Tianyu Biological (603717) closed at 9.17, up 2.12% with a trading volume of 152,700 shares and a transaction value of 140 million [1] - Other notable performers include Xiangjia Co. (002982) up 1.76%, Minhe Co. (002234) up 1.73%, and Xinwufeng (600975) up 1.57% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The aquaculture sector saw a net inflow of 25.81 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 4.57 million [2] - Major stocks like Jingji Zhino (000048) experienced a significant net outflow of 29.90 million from speculative funds [3] - Muyu Co. (002714) had a net inflow of 43.02 million from institutional investors, but also saw a net outflow of 26.25 million from speculative funds [3]

Core Viewpoint - The livestock farming ETF (516670) has seen significant inflows, with nearly 22 million yuan on a single day and a total of 210 million yuan over the past 11 days, reaching a new high of 1.063 billion yuan since its listing [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - In September, the overall sales revenue of listed pig farming companies declined, with a total revenue of 21.647 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 18.74% and a month-on-month decrease of 10.77% [3] - The decline in sales revenue is attributed to significantly lower pig prices compared to the same period last year, as well as a continuous drop in prices in September [3][4] - The total number of pigs sold by listed companies in September was 15.2934 million heads, marking a year-on-year increase of 27.11% but a month-on-month decrease of 5.92% [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The price decline is influenced by both ample supply and weak demand, with a notable increase in the number of pigs being marketed due to the release of new production capacity from last year [4] - The number of breeding sows in September was 40.35 million heads, showing a year-on-year decrease of 280,000 heads (0.7%) and a slight month-on-month decrease of 90,000 heads (0.2%) [4] Group 3: Policy and Future Outlook - Since May, the industry has been focusing on "de-involution," with multiple meetings held by the Ministry of Agriculture, the National Development and Reform Commission, and industry associations to control production capacity and reduce weight [5] - With the increasing enforcement of policies and recent pig prices entering a loss zone, it is expected that the industry's capacity reduction will accelerate in the fourth quarter, with a potential upward trend in pig prices anticipated in the second half of next year [5] - The livestock farming ETF (516670) has a management fee rate of 0.2% per year, making it the lowest among ETFs tracking the livestock farming index [5]

Core Insights - On October 22, Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. experienced a 1.54% decline in stock price with a trading volume of 1.786 billion yuan, indicating market volatility [1] - The company reported a net financing purchase of 89.38 million yuan on the same day, with a total financing and securities balance of 4.946 billion yuan as of October 22 [1] - Muyuan Foods' financing balance is currently at 4.929 billion yuan, representing 1.85% of its market capitalization, which is below the 20th percentile level over the past year, indicating a low financing level [1] Financing and Securities - On October 22, Muyuan Foods had a financing purchase of 208 million yuan, while the financing balance stood at 4.929 billion yuan [1] - The company repaid 1.19 billion yuan in financing, resulting in a net financing purchase of 89.38 million yuan [1] - In terms of securities lending, 16,600 shares were repaid, and 12,100 shares were sold, with a selling amount of 589,300 yuan, indicating a higher securities lending balance compared to the past year [1] Company Overview - Muyuan Foods, established on July 13, 2000, and listed on January 28, 2014, is located in Nanyang, Henan Province [1] - The company's main business involves pig farming and sales, with revenue composition as follows: 98.68% from pig farming, 25.30% from slaughtering and meat products, 1.63% from feed raw materials, and 0.49% from other sources [1] Financial Performance - As of June 30, Muyuan Foods had 209,000 shareholders, a decrease of 25.13% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 33.57% to 18,236 shares [2] - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 76.463 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.46%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.530 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 1169.77% [2] Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, Muyuan Foods has distributed a total of 26.576 billion yuan in dividends, with 16.594 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the third-largest circulating shareholder with 149 million shares, an increase of 20.471 million shares from the previous period [3] - Other notable institutional shareholders include Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF, E Fund CSI 300 ETF, and Huaxia CSI 300 ETF, with varying increases in their holdings [3]

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector is experiencing a downturn, with the first agricultural ETF (159275) declining by 1.31% as of market close on October 22, 2023 [1] Industry Analysis - The pig farming industry is facing significant capacity pressure, leading to widespread losses. Current prices for fat and piglets have dropped to yearly lows, suggesting a potential further decline in prices. Historical trends indicate that when both prices are low, the industry may initiate market-driven capacity reduction, which could support long-term price increases for pigs [3] - Despite the current challenges, there is an expectation of increased pig supply in the fourth quarter due to rising slaughter volumes and accelerated weight gain as temperatures drop. This has led to a stronger demand for meat, with pig prices stabilizing at psychological levels, easing the pressure on the breeding sector [3] - The valuation of the agricultural sector remains relatively low, presenting a favorable investment opportunity. As of October 22, 2023, the agricultural ETF's index price-to-book ratio stands at 2.57, placing it in the 29.3 percentile over the past decade, highlighting its mid- to long-term investment value [3] Investment Direction - Analysts are optimistic about the pig farming sector due to policy and market forces driving capacity reduction, which is expected to enhance long-term performance [4] - The agricultural sector plays a crucial role in food security, economic development, ecological balance, and social welfare. The traditional farming industry is undergoing significant supply-side reforms, which are likely to benefit large-scale farming enterprises. The domestic market concentration is increasing, and companies that have expanded into overseas markets are expected to gain a competitive edge [5] - The current upward trend in grain prices and favorable conditions in the planting and seed sectors indicate significant investment opportunities in these areas [6] ETF Overview - The agricultural ETF (159275) tracks the CSI Agricultural Index, with major holdings including leading companies in livestock, feed, and planting sectors. The top ten holdings account for over 90% of the index, focusing on agricultural breeding, feed, and planting industries [6]