Summary of China Industrials 2026 Outlook Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Industrials - **Core Themes**: AI technology diffusion, industrial upgrades, and globalization are central to the industrial sector's recovery in 2026. The government is focused on enhancing productivity through equipment upgrades, particularly in high-end equipment [1][4]. Key Insights - **Industrial Cycle**: The industrial cycle is characterized by strong global demand for capital goods, driven by AI technology applications and supply chain security concerns. China's trend of localizing high-end equipment remains strong, with specific sectors like data centers, electronics, and robotics expected to show growth, while processing markets may experience muted demand [3][10]. - **AI Applications**: 2026 is anticipated to mark the beginning of significant capital expenditure on physical AI, which will benefit automation and robotics companies. The government is supporting this through initiatives aimed at increasing the deployment of AI-powered robotics [4][11][12]. - **Localization and Supply Chain**: The localization rates for automation and industrial robots are projected to rise, with expectations of reaching 60-70% by 2030. This trend is expected to benefit companies involved in automation and precision components [21][22][23]. Market Dynamics - **Overseas Expansion**: Equipment exports from China have grown significantly, outpacing overall export growth. Companies are motivated to expand into international markets to capture larger total addressable markets (TAM) and improve margins [24][25]. - **Margin Expansion**: The overall net margin for China's industrials is expected to increase from approximately 13.0% in 2025 to around 14.6% in 2027, driven by overseas growth and advancements in AI technology [26][27]. Stock Recommendations - **Preferred Stocks**: The report highlights several stocks that are expected to benefit from cyclical strength and structural tailwinds, including: - **Geekplus (2590.HK)**: OW - **Sany Heavy (600031.SS)**: OW - **Leaderdrive (688017.SS)**: OW - **Han's Laser (002008.SZ)**: OW - **Inovance (300124.SZ)**: OW - **Hengli (601100.SS)**: OW - **Wuxi Lead (300450.SZ)**: OW - **Envicool (002837.SZ)**: OW - **Underweight Stocks**: Stocks such as **CSCEC (601668.SS)**, **CRRC-H (1766.HK)**, and **Maxwell (300751.SZ)** are rated as underweight due to various market challenges [5][8][46]. Additional Considerations - **Geopolitical Factors**: The geopolitical landscape is influencing supply chain security, which is a critical factor for capital goods demand globally [3]. - **Investment in AI**: The anticipated investment in AI infrastructure is expected to redefine smart manufacturing and create new opportunities within the industrial sector [10][11]. - **Sector Performance**: The report indicates that most industrial stocks are trading at or above their historical five-year average P/E ratios, reflecting a positive outlook for continuous upgrades and AI-related demand [26][38]. This comprehensive analysis provides insights into the expected recovery and growth opportunities within the China Industrials sector for 2026, highlighting key themes, market dynamics, and stock recommendations.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the AI industry [1] Core Insights - The capital expenditure (Capex) guidance from major overseas companies is optimistic, with a continuous upward trend in computing power expected through 2026. The total Capex for Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta is projected to reach $406.5 billion in 2025 and $596.4 billion in 2026, representing year-on-year growth of 46% and 47% respectively [3][5][22] - The demand for AI-related infrastructure is driving significant upgrades in interconnects, cooling, and power supply sectors, indicating a long-term growth cycle distinct from previous technology cycles [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Overseas Major Companies' Capex Guidance - Major companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta are expected to increase their Capex significantly, with projections of $186.4 billion, $139.5 billion, $162.5 billion, and $108 billion respectively for 2026 [6][7][14][18][21] - The overall Capex for these four companies is expected to account for 62% of the global AI-related Capex, which is projected to reach $960 billion by 2026 [22][23] 2. Interconnect Sector: Optical Modules and PCBs - The interconnect sector is experiencing a fundamental shift in demand due to AI server cluster construction, leading to simultaneous upgrades in computing boards, switches, and optical modules, which will increase both demand and pricing [3][4] - The deployment of 800G technology is expected to accelerate, with 1.6T technology entering the introduction phase [3] 3. Cooling Sector: Liquid Cooling Demand - The power density of AI GPU racks is projected to rise from 130 kW in 2024 to over 1 MW by 2029, making liquid cooling technology essential [3][4] 4. Power Supply Sector: AIDC Power Distribution Evolution - The evolution of AIDC power distribution methods is crucial, with a focus on HVDC and SST technologies to enhance system efficiency and reduce energy losses [3][4] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific companies within various sectors: - Computing power: Haiguang Information - Interconnects - Optical modules: LightSpeed Technology, Huagong Technology - Interconnects - PCBs: Shenghong Technology, Shennan Circuits, and others - Cooling: Invec - Power supply: Magpow [3][4]

我们近期在高盛中国 AI 机器人与电力行业调研中走访了英维克，并于 2026 年 1 月 19 日与公司董秘进行了交 流。 公司预计 2026 年销售增速将，利润增速将快于收入增长。 管理层认为 2026 年是服务器冷却产品大规模量产的关键拐点，。 增长主要由三大支柱支撑： ：基于谷歌 Project Des 增长主要由三大支柱支撑： ：基于谷歌 Project Deschutes 5 设计的 2MW 级 CDU（冷却液分配单元）项目，将在 2026 年下半年开始贡献 显著收入； ：为应对快速增长的需求，公司计划在 2026 年一季度末前实现快速断开连接件（QD）产能； ：海外市场能源存储冷却需求加速，单机价值量持续提升。 尽管短期内原材料价格带来成本端压力，但。 我们对英维克维持买入评级，目标价 121.1 元人民币。 我们近期在高盛中国 AI 机器人与电力行业调研中走访了英维克，并于 2026 年 1 月 19 日与公司董秘进行了交 流。 公司预计 2026 年销售增速将，利润增速将快于收入增长。 管理层认为 2026 年是服务器冷却产品大规模量产的关键拐点，。 总体来看，我们预计公司 2025-2030 ...

Market Overview - A-share major indices showed a significant rebound this week, with the weekly performance of the indices as follows: CSI 300 at -0.57%, ChiNext 300 at 1.39%, STAR 50 at 2.58%, CSI 500 at 2.18%, CSI 1000 at 1.27%, and the humanoid robot index at 1.48%, with the STAR 50 showing the most notable recovery [1] Recent Events and Highlights - China applied to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) for frequency resources for over 200,000 satellites, with more than 190,000 satellites coming from the newly established Radio Innovation Institute. Experts are optimistic about the institute's role in integrating industry resources and leveraging China's large market to accelerate its industry to catch up with SpaceX [2] Current Perspectives - The establishment of the humanoid robot and embodied intelligence standardization technical committee by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is viewed positively for the humanoid robot industry chain, with related companies including Hengshuai Co., Junpu Intelligent, Anpeilong, Keda Li, Lens Technology, Changying Precision, Sanhua Intelligent Control, Fengmao Co., Top Group, and Wuzhou Xinchun [3] - Guangdong has launched its first provincial-level drone governance system, creating a drone resource pool and a provincial management platform to build a "one network for unified flight" service ecosystem, with related companies including Xindong Link, Wanfeng Aowei, Wolong Electric Drive, and Zongshen Power [3] - The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology's Tair System Laboratory recently issued a liquid cooling capability testing report and certificate to Shenzhen Invech Technology Co., indicating that AI data center construction is expected to drive demand for liquid cooling equipment, with related companies including Invech, Nanfeng Co., Chuanrun Co., and Bojie Co. [3] - China's application to the ITU for over 200,000 satellites coincides with the U.S. Federal Communications Commission granting SpaceX significant authorization to build, deploy, and operate an additional 7,500 second-generation Starlink satellites, with related companies including Superjet Co., Xindong Link, Guoji Precision, and Electric Science Digital [3]

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant outflows of main funds from various stocks, particularly in the communication equipment and renewable energy sectors, suggesting a potential shift in investor sentiment and market dynamics [1][2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance and Fund Outflows - The top stock with the largest fund outflow is Xinye Technology, with a decrease of 20.21 billion yuan and a drop of 5.01% [2] - Zhongji Xuchuang follows with an outflow of 18.09 billion yuan and a decline of 3.22% [2] - Yangguang Electric Power experienced an outflow of 15.07 billion yuan, with a decrease of 5.25% [2] - Shenghong Technology saw a fund outflow of 14.52 billion yuan and a drop of 5.02% [2] - China Satellite had an outflow of 13.92 billion yuan, with a significant decline of 7.84% [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The communication equipment sector is notably affected, with multiple companies like Xinye Technology, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Fenghuo Communication experiencing substantial fund outflows [2][3] - The photovoltaic equipment sector, represented by Yangguang Electric Power and Longi Green Energy, also shows significant outflows, indicating potential challenges in this industry [2][3] - The electronic components sector, including Shenghong Technology and Huadian Co., is facing similar trends with notable fund withdrawals [2][3]

Summary of Shenzhen Envicool Technology (002837.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company Name**: Shenzhen Envicool Technology - **Stock Code**: 002837.SZ - **Industry**: AI Robotics & Power, specifically focusing on server cooling technologies Key Points and Arguments 2026 Sales and Earnings Outlook - Envicool anticipates sales growth exceeding its historical target of 30% per annum, with earnings growth expected to outpace sales growth in 2026, marking a critical inflection point for mass production across multiple customers and supply chains [1][23] - The company projects total sales growth of 79% in 2026 and 49% in 2027, with earnings growth of 127% in 2026 and 67% in 2027 [1] Growth Drivers 1. **ASIC Supply Chain Breakthroughs**: Significant contributions from Coolant Distribution Unit (CDU) products are expected in the second half of 2026, particularly from the 2MW Google Project Deschutes 5 design [1][15] 2. **NVIDIA Ecosystem Penetration**: A 20x capacity expansion for Quick Disconnects (QDs) is set to be operational by the end of Q1 2026 to meet rising demand [1][16] 3. **BESS Growth**: The energy storage system (ESS) cooling segment is projected to grow significantly, driven by global demand and increased content value in overseas markets [1][19] Financial Projections - **Revenue Forecast**: Expected revenues of Rmb 11.54 billion in 2026 and Rmb 17.23 billion in 2027 [1][14] - **EBITDA Forecast**: Projected EBITDA of Rmb 1.66 billion in 2026 and Rmb 2.76 billion in 2027 [1][14] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Expected EPS of Rmb 1.45 in 2026 and Rmb 2.42 in 2027 [1][14] Margin Trends - The company expects an increase in overall margins in 2026 due to a rising mix of overseas sales, despite potential near-term headwinds from commodity price increases [1][20] - Forecasted Gross Profit Margin (GPM) of 28.6% in 2026 and 29.1% in 2027, with Net Profit Margin (NPM) of 12.3% in 2026 and 13.7% in 2027 [1][20] Capacity Expansion - Envicool is expanding production capacity both domestically and internationally, including a 20x increase in QD capacity by the end of Q1 2026 [1][17] - The company is also ramping up capacity in the US and Thailand for server cooling products [1][17] Investment Thesis - The company is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of Rmb 121.1, based on a projected P/E of 42x for 2028E discounted back to 2026E [1][24] - Envicool is positioned to capture a growing share of the global server liquid cooling market, with expectations of 5% market share in 2027E, 7% in 2028E, and 10% by 2030E [1][23] Additional Important Insights - The company is selective in domestic data center cooling projects due to intense pricing competition, while the overall industry demand remains strong [1][20] - Envicool's strong R&D capabilities and extensive experience in liquid cooling deployment position it favorably against new entrants in the market [1][16] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding Shenzhen Envicool Technology's growth prospects, financial outlook, and strategic initiatives in the server cooling market.

Group 1: Company Performance - As of December 31, the number of shareholders for Invec increased to 148,700, a rise of 10.48% compared to the previous period [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, Invec achieved a revenue of 4.026 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.19% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period was 399 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.13% [2] Group 2: Financial Metrics - On January 16, Invec's stock price fell by 0.67%, with a trading volume of 5.411 billion yuan [1] - The financing buy amount on the same day was 672 million yuan, while the financing repayment was 585 million yuan, resulting in a net financing purchase of 87.62 million yuan [1] - The total balance of margin trading for Invec reached 4.720 billion yuan as of January 16 [1] Group 3: Shareholder and Institutional Holdings - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 9.48% to 5,717 shares [2] - As of September 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the second-largest circulating shareholder, holding 37.06 million shares, a decrease of 45.20 million shares from the previous period [3] - The Southern CSI 500 ETF was the seventh-largest circulating shareholder, holding 8.4644 million shares, down by 149,600 shares compared to the previous period [3] Group 4: Dividend Information - Invec has distributed a total of 581 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 345 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the AI equipment sector, focusing on semiconductor, gas turbine, PCB equipment, and liquid cooling technologies. [1][3] Company Highlights Guanggang Gas - Expected to double new orders from 150,000 cubic meters to approximately 300,000 cubic meters by 2026, with a market capitalization projected to grow from 26 billion to between 80 billion and 100 billion [1][4] - Profit margin anticipated to rise from 10% in 2025 to 34% in the first half of the current year [4] - Actively expanding into overseas markets and developing new products like supercritical carbon dioxide [4] Gas Turbine Sector - Global gas turbine orders expected to increase from 85 GW in 2025 to over 120 GW in 2026, driven by severe electricity shortages in the U.S. [1][5] - Jie Rui is highlighted as a key player, with a potential market capitalization of over 100 billion due to shortened delivery times and strong channel capabilities [5] Gas Turbine Blade Market - Ying Liu and Wan Ze hold less than 2% of a market worth approximately 170 billion, indicating significant growth potential [6] - Improvement in yield rates from 40% to 50-60% expected, enhancing order capacity and profit margins, which currently exceed 40% [6] Lian De Co. - Projected profits for 2026 could exceed expectations, reaching between 350 million and 360 million, with a potential increase to 500 million by 2027 [9] PCB Equipment - Notable companies include Dazhu Laser, New Qiwei, and Kaige, with Dazhu Laser expected to achieve profits of 2 billion by 2026, corresponding to a market cap of 80 billion [10] Liquid Cooling Technology - Companies like Hongsheng and Ying Wei are recommended, with Ying Wei's products being more reliable and likely to enter the U.S. AI supply chain [11] Optical Communication Equipment - Aotewei is identified as a key player with significant market potential in AOI and gold wire bonding machines, with a potential revenue increase of 2 to 2.5 billion if it captures 10% market share [12] Semiconductor Industry - Huahong Semiconductor is highlighted as a key player with a favorable competitive landscape and future growth potential [13] Additional Insights - The gas turbine sector is seen as the most sustainable segment within AI equipment, with increasing demand due to electricity shortages in the U.S. [5] - The liquid cooling technology is noted for its potential to ensure operational stability in data centers, especially under extreme weather conditions [11] - The PCB equipment sector is characterized by limited investment options, making it a secondary focus compared to gas turbines and liquid cooling [3] This summary encapsulates the key points and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the discussed companies and industry trends.

Group 1 - As of January 15, the margin balance of A-shares reached 27,187.51 billion yuan, an increase of 205.20 billion yuan from the previous trading day, accounting for 2.63% of the A-share circulating market value [1] - The trading volume of margin transactions on the same day was 3,180.43 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,338.68 billion yuan from the previous trading day, representing 10.81% of the total A-share trading volume [1] - Among the 31 primary industries in the Shenwan index, 22 industries experienced net financing inflows, with the electronics industry leading at a net inflow of 75.76 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - A total of 73 stocks had net financing inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with Zhongji Xuchuang leading at a net inflow of 16.98 billion yuan [1] - Other notable stocks with significant net financing inflows included Luxshare Precision, Xinyi Sheng, Dongfang Wealth, Liou Shares, Kweichow Moutai, Meinian Health, Lanke Technology, Yingweike, and Jiangbolong [1] - According to Dongfang Securities, the demand for power chips is expected to grow due to the increasing requirements for AI servers and power management, with some foundries' 8-inch capacity utilization rates significantly improving since mid-2025 [2]

Market Overview - On January 15, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4112.60 points, down 0.33%, with a trading volume of 11,759 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41% to 14,306.73 points, with a trading volume of 17,296.48 billion yuan. The ChiNext Index increased by 0.56% to 3,367.92 points, with a trading volume of 8,497.13 billion yuan. The total trading volume for both markets was 29,055.48 billion yuan, a decrease of 10,358.95 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Sector Performance - The chemical, electronics, non-ferrous metals, precious metals, and real estate sectors showed strong performance, while industries such as media, defense, computer, retail, textiles, pharmaceuticals, education, and light manufacturing experienced declines. Notably, the phosphorous chemical, storage chip, solid-state battery, fluorine chemical, organic silicon, and minor metals concepts were particularly active [2]. - Among the stocks, 2,169 rose, while 2,898 fell, with 104 remaining flat and 13 suspended. Excluding newly listed stocks, there were 65 stocks that hit the daily limit up and 72 that hit the limit down [2]. Capital Flow - The net outflow of main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 509.2 billion yuan, with the ChiNext experiencing a net outflow of 302.36 billion yuan. The CSI 300 index saw a net inflow of 53.17 billion yuan, while the STAR Market had a net outflow of 7.86 billion yuan. The electronics sector had the highest net inflow of 99.72 billion yuan, followed by banking, chemicals, and real estate [4]. - A total of 2142 stocks saw net inflows, with 117 stocks receiving over 1 billion yuan in net inflows. Leading the inflows was Luxshare Precision with 2.689 billion yuan, followed by Zhongji Xuchuang, Wolong Materials, and others [8][9]. Individual Stock Performance - The stocks with the highest net outflows included BlueFocus with a net outflow of 3.139 billion yuan, followed by Shanzhi Technology, Dongfang Wealth, and others [11][12]. - Institutional investors had a net buy of 15 stocks, with the highest net buy in Province Group at approximately 494 million yuan. Conversely, the highest net sell was in Liou Co., with a net outflow of approximately 432 million yuan [14][15].