当英伟达Rubin产品线携MCCP微通道技术呼啸而来，当AI芯片功耗冲破千瓦级物理极限，传统风冷已 触达命运的终局，液冷正从"前沿技术"蜕变为算力时代的"生存标配"。曾几何时，海外巨头垄断核心工 艺、把持价值链顶端，大陆厂商只能在代工赛道捡拾微薄红利，随时面临产能转移的生存危机；而今， 借着AI算力爆发与政策东风，一场以技术破壁、全链自主为核心的国产替代浪潮，正在液冷赛道澎湃 涌动——这不仅是份额的更迭，更是"中国智造"从追赶到引领的韧性史诗，每一步突破都镌刻着坚守， 每一处留白都藏着千亿级的星辰大海。 一、技术破壁：在博弈中突围，啃下"卡脖子"硬骨头 时代的浪潮，从来都眷顾有准备者。当前冷板式液冷以65%的市场份额占据主导，其对现有服务器架构 改动小、部署灵活的优势，成为国产厂商切入市场的最佳跳板。国家"东数西算"工程明确新建数据中心 PUE需低于1.25，四部门专项计划推动液冷技术规模化应用，北上广深更是要求新建智算中心液冷机柜 占比超50%。而液冷技术能将PUE稳定在1.1-1.2区间，远超风冷极限，既是实现"双碳"目标的核心支 撑，更是国产厂商的成长沃土。政策红利与市场需求形成共振，让国产替代从"被动 ...

电力瓶颈，比芯片更紧迫 2024年中国数据中心总耗电量达1660亿度，相当于2个三峡水电站的年发电量；约占全国总耗电量的1.68%，预计2030年占比超过5%，2035年占比超过 13%。 算力扩张与电力约束的失衡，正在重塑数据中心产业的发展逻辑。 "花几十亿元流片，最终或许只能兑现不到六成的理论价值。"这并非危言耸听，而是当下AI芯片在真实数据中心场景中的普遍现实。 当生成式AI掀起全球算力竞赛，半导体行业的目光多聚焦于：AI芯片公司又推出了性能多么强悍的新品？台积电的先进制程是否更进一步？然而一组数 据，却进一步揭示了这场行业狂欢背后的隐形枷锁： 近期，半导体产业纵横深入AI芯片及数据中心产业一线走访调研，与多位行业资深从业者深度交流后发现，当前AI数据中心电力消耗居高不下的核心瓶 颈，主要有三点。 第一点，正如文章开头所言，AI芯片的技术发展和数据中心的实际使用场景脱节，是当前行业电力消耗居高不下的核心问题之一。当前诸多AI芯片研发 走进"拼峰值算力"的误区，把算力多少当成核心竞争力，却忽略了数据中心里最关键的"算力够用且省电"的平衡需求。这种失衡主要体现在两方面： 其一，芯片设计和实际任务对不上。主流 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the demand for AI computing power will continue to grow and diversify in 2026, extending from data centers to network edges and even internal terminals [8][13][27] - The report highlights the significant capital expenditure (Capex) growth driven by business revenue, with major cloud service providers like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon showing consistent revenue growth exceeding 20% year-on-year [27][31][35] - The report identifies the increasing importance of silicon photonics technology, particularly the 1.6T optical module, which is expected to maintain accelerated growth and enhance the global market share of domestic optical chips and devices [7][54][70] Group 2 - The report discusses the emergence of new technologies such as Scale-UP supernodes and their impact on optical link demand, indicating that these technologies will drive additional link requirements in 2026 [7][9][66] - It notes that the AI infrastructure is experiencing a high level of prosperity, with significant investments in data centers and AI capabilities expected to continue, particularly in the U.S. [47][49][53] - The report anticipates that the integration of silicon photonics will significantly increase its market penetration, projecting that by 2026, over half of optical module sales will come from silicon photonics solutions [70][75]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4136.16 points, up 0.33%, with a trading volume of 1.3369 trillion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.79% to 14439.66 points, with a trading volume of 1.7484 trillion yuan. The ChiNext Index increased by 0.63% to 3349.50 points, with a trading volume of 822.63 billion yuan. The STAR Market 50 Index closed at 1553.71 points, up 0.78%, with a trading volume of 110.8 billion yuan. The total trading volume of both markets was 3.0853 trillion yuan, an increase of 393.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Sector Performance - The market saw more sectors gaining than losing, with notable increases in power equipment, non-ferrous metals, precious metals, defense and military, steel, media, computer, environmental protection, and textile and apparel sectors. Concepts such as perovskite batteries, commercial aerospace, satellite internet, sapphire, lithium mining, cultivated diamonds, small metals, gold, and interactive short dramas were particularly active. In contrast, sectors like communication, insurance, banking, coal, and home appliances experienced declines [1]. Individual Stock Performance - A total of 3707 stocks rose, while 1336 stocks fell, with 134 stocks remaining flat and 6 stocks suspended. Excluding newly listed stocks, there were 120 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 2 stocks hitting the limit down [2]. - Among the stocks that hit the daily limit up, 23 stocks had consecutive limit-up days of 2 or more, with Fenglong Co., Ltd. leading with 18 consecutive limit-ups [3]. Capital Flow - The net capital outflow from the two markets was 4.167 billion yuan, with the ChiNext seeing a net inflow of 1.515 billion yuan. The CSI 300 index experienced a net outflow of 1.005 billion yuan, while the STAR Market saw a net outflow of 3.171 billion yuan. Out of 31 sectors, 13 sectors had net capital inflows, with the power equipment sector leading with a net inflow of 8.977 billion yuan [4][6]. - The top sectors with net inflows included non-ferrous metals (4.552 billion yuan), media (2.173 billion yuan), and defense and military (2.157 billion yuan). Conversely, the communication sector had the highest net outflow of 7.992 billion yuan, followed by electronics (6.350 billion yuan) and machinery (5.077 billion yuan) [4][6]. Notable Stocks - 191 stocks had net capital inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with Jin Feng Technology receiving the highest net inflow of 1.861 billion yuan. Other notable stocks included Lens Technology (1.594 billion yuan), Qian Zhao Optoelectronics (1.267 billion yuan), and Xian Dao Intelligent (1.217 billion yuan) [7][8]. - Conversely, 116 stocks experienced net capital outflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with Xin Yi Sheng leading with a net outflow of 3.471 billion yuan, followed by Zhong Ji Xu Chuang (3.103 billion yuan) and Li Ou Shares (2.604 billion yuan) [10][11]. Institutional Activity - Institutional investors had a net selling of approximately 1.02 billion yuan, with 22 stocks seeing net purchases and 14 stocks net sales. Jin Feng Technology was the most purchased stock by institutions, with a net purchase amount of approximately 266 million yuan [13][14].

Summary of China Industrials 2026 Outlook Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Industrials - **Core Themes**: AI technology diffusion, industrial upgrades, and globalization are central to the industrial sector's recovery in 2026. The government is focused on enhancing productivity through equipment upgrades, particularly in high-end equipment [1][4]. Key Insights - **Industrial Cycle**: The industrial cycle is characterized by strong global demand for capital goods, driven by AI technology applications and supply chain security concerns. China's trend of localizing high-end equipment remains strong, with specific sectors like data centers, electronics, and robotics expected to show growth, while processing markets may experience muted demand [3][10]. - **AI Applications**: 2026 is anticipated to mark the beginning of significant capital expenditure on physical AI, which will benefit automation and robotics companies. The government is supporting this through initiatives aimed at increasing the deployment of AI-powered robotics [4][11][12]. - **Localization and Supply Chain**: The localization rates for automation and industrial robots are projected to rise, with expectations of reaching 60-70% by 2030. This trend is expected to benefit companies involved in automation and precision components [21][22][23]. Market Dynamics - **Overseas Expansion**: Equipment exports from China have grown significantly, outpacing overall export growth. Companies are motivated to expand into international markets to capture larger total addressable markets (TAM) and improve margins [24][25]. - **Margin Expansion**: The overall net margin for China's industrials is expected to increase from approximately 13.0% in 2025 to around 14.6% in 2027, driven by overseas growth and advancements in AI technology [26][27]. Stock Recommendations - **Preferred Stocks**: The report highlights several stocks that are expected to benefit from cyclical strength and structural tailwinds, including: - **Geekplus (2590.HK)**: OW - **Sany Heavy (600031.SS)**: OW - **Leaderdrive (688017.SS)**: OW - **Han's Laser (002008.SZ)**: OW - **Inovance (300124.SZ)**: OW - **Hengli (601100.SS)**: OW - **Wuxi Lead (300450.SZ)**: OW - **Envicool (002837.SZ)**: OW - **Underweight Stocks**: Stocks such as **CSCEC (601668.SS)**, **CRRC-H (1766.HK)**, and **Maxwell (300751.SZ)** are rated as underweight due to various market challenges [5][8][46]. Additional Considerations - **Geopolitical Factors**: The geopolitical landscape is influencing supply chain security, which is a critical factor for capital goods demand globally [3]. - **Investment in AI**: The anticipated investment in AI infrastructure is expected to redefine smart manufacturing and create new opportunities within the industrial sector [10][11]. - **Sector Performance**: The report indicates that most industrial stocks are trading at or above their historical five-year average P/E ratios, reflecting a positive outlook for continuous upgrades and AI-related demand [26][38]. This comprehensive analysis provides insights into the expected recovery and growth opportunities within the China Industrials sector for 2026, highlighting key themes, market dynamics, and stock recommendations.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the AI industry [1] Core Insights - The capital expenditure (Capex) guidance from major overseas companies is optimistic, with a continuous upward trend in computing power expected through 2026. The total Capex for Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta is projected to reach $406.5 billion in 2025 and $596.4 billion in 2026, representing year-on-year growth of 46% and 47% respectively [3][5][22] - The demand for AI-related infrastructure is driving significant upgrades in interconnects, cooling, and power supply sectors, indicating a long-term growth cycle distinct from previous technology cycles [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Overseas Major Companies' Capex Guidance - Major companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta are expected to increase their Capex significantly, with projections of $186.4 billion, $139.5 billion, $162.5 billion, and $108 billion respectively for 2026 [6][7][14][18][21] - The overall Capex for these four companies is expected to account for 62% of the global AI-related Capex, which is projected to reach $960 billion by 2026 [22][23] 2. Interconnect Sector: Optical Modules and PCBs - The interconnect sector is experiencing a fundamental shift in demand due to AI server cluster construction, leading to simultaneous upgrades in computing boards, switches, and optical modules, which will increase both demand and pricing [3][4] - The deployment of 800G technology is expected to accelerate, with 1.6T technology entering the introduction phase [3] 3. Cooling Sector: Liquid Cooling Demand - The power density of AI GPU racks is projected to rise from 130 kW in 2024 to over 1 MW by 2029, making liquid cooling technology essential [3][4] 4. Power Supply Sector: AIDC Power Distribution Evolution - The evolution of AIDC power distribution methods is crucial, with a focus on HVDC and SST technologies to enhance system efficiency and reduce energy losses [3][4] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific companies within various sectors: - Computing power: Haiguang Information - Interconnects - Optical modules: LightSpeed Technology, Huagong Technology - Interconnects - PCBs: Shenghong Technology, Shennan Circuits, and others - Cooling: Invec - Power supply: Magpow [3][4]

我们近期在高盛中国 AI 机器人与电力行业调研中走访了英维克，并于 2026 年 1 月 19 日与公司董秘进行了交 流。 公司预计 2026 年销售增速将，利润增速将快于收入增长。 管理层认为 2026 年是服务器冷却产品大规模量产的关键拐点，。 增长主要由三大支柱支撑： ：基于谷歌 Project Des 增长主要由三大支柱支撑： ：基于谷歌 Project Deschutes 5 设计的 2MW 级 CDU（冷却液分配单元）项目，将在 2026 年下半年开始贡献 显著收入； ：为应对快速增长的需求，公司计划在 2026 年一季度末前实现快速断开连接件（QD）产能； ：海外市场能源存储冷却需求加速，单机价值量持续提升。 尽管短期内原材料价格带来成本端压力，但。 我们对英维克维持买入评级，目标价 121.1 元人民币。 我们近期在高盛中国 AI 机器人与电力行业调研中走访了英维克，并于 2026 年 1 月 19 日与公司董秘进行了交 流。 公司预计 2026 年销售增速将，利润增速将快于收入增长。 管理层认为 2026 年是服务器冷却产品大规模量产的关键拐点，。 总体来看，我们预计公司 2025-2030 ...

Market Overview - A-share major indices showed a significant rebound this week, with the weekly performance of the indices as follows: CSI 300 at -0.57%, ChiNext 300 at 1.39%, STAR 50 at 2.58%, CSI 500 at 2.18%, CSI 1000 at 1.27%, and the humanoid robot index at 1.48%, with the STAR 50 showing the most notable recovery [1] Recent Events and Highlights - China applied to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) for frequency resources for over 200,000 satellites, with more than 190,000 satellites coming from the newly established Radio Innovation Institute. Experts are optimistic about the institute's role in integrating industry resources and leveraging China's large market to accelerate its industry to catch up with SpaceX [2] Current Perspectives - The establishment of the humanoid robot and embodied intelligence standardization technical committee by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is viewed positively for the humanoid robot industry chain, with related companies including Hengshuai Co., Junpu Intelligent, Anpeilong, Keda Li, Lens Technology, Changying Precision, Sanhua Intelligent Control, Fengmao Co., Top Group, and Wuzhou Xinchun [3] - Guangdong has launched its first provincial-level drone governance system, creating a drone resource pool and a provincial management platform to build a "one network for unified flight" service ecosystem, with related companies including Xindong Link, Wanfeng Aowei, Wolong Electric Drive, and Zongshen Power [3] - The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology's Tair System Laboratory recently issued a liquid cooling capability testing report and certificate to Shenzhen Invech Technology Co., indicating that AI data center construction is expected to drive demand for liquid cooling equipment, with related companies including Invech, Nanfeng Co., Chuanrun Co., and Bojie Co. [3] - China's application to the ITU for over 200,000 satellites coincides with the U.S. Federal Communications Commission granting SpaceX significant authorization to build, deploy, and operate an additional 7,500 second-generation Starlink satellites, with related companies including Superjet Co., Xindong Link, Guoji Precision, and Electric Science Digital [3]

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant outflows of main funds from various stocks, particularly in the communication equipment and renewable energy sectors, suggesting a potential shift in investor sentiment and market dynamics [1][2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance and Fund Outflows - The top stock with the largest fund outflow is Xinye Technology, with a decrease of 20.21 billion yuan and a drop of 5.01% [2] - Zhongji Xuchuang follows with an outflow of 18.09 billion yuan and a decline of 3.22% [2] - Yangguang Electric Power experienced an outflow of 15.07 billion yuan, with a decrease of 5.25% [2] - Shenghong Technology saw a fund outflow of 14.52 billion yuan and a drop of 5.02% [2] - China Satellite had an outflow of 13.92 billion yuan, with a significant decline of 7.84% [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The communication equipment sector is notably affected, with multiple companies like Xinye Technology, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Fenghuo Communication experiencing substantial fund outflows [2][3] - The photovoltaic equipment sector, represented by Yangguang Electric Power and Longi Green Energy, also shows significant outflows, indicating potential challenges in this industry [2][3] - The electronic components sector, including Shenghong Technology and Huadian Co., is facing similar trends with notable fund withdrawals [2][3]

Summary of Shenzhen Envicool Technology (002837.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company Name**: Shenzhen Envicool Technology - **Stock Code**: 002837.SZ - **Industry**: AI Robotics & Power, specifically focusing on server cooling technologies Key Points and Arguments 2026 Sales and Earnings Outlook - Envicool anticipates sales growth exceeding its historical target of 30% per annum, with earnings growth expected to outpace sales growth in 2026, marking a critical inflection point for mass production across multiple customers and supply chains [1][23] - The company projects total sales growth of 79% in 2026 and 49% in 2027, with earnings growth of 127% in 2026 and 67% in 2027 [1] Growth Drivers 1. **ASIC Supply Chain Breakthroughs**: Significant contributions from Coolant Distribution Unit (CDU) products are expected in the second half of 2026, particularly from the 2MW Google Project Deschutes 5 design [1][15] 2. **NVIDIA Ecosystem Penetration**: A 20x capacity expansion for Quick Disconnects (QDs) is set to be operational by the end of Q1 2026 to meet rising demand [1][16] 3. **BESS Growth**: The energy storage system (ESS) cooling segment is projected to grow significantly, driven by global demand and increased content value in overseas markets [1][19] Financial Projections - **Revenue Forecast**: Expected revenues of Rmb 11.54 billion in 2026 and Rmb 17.23 billion in 2027 [1][14] - **EBITDA Forecast**: Projected EBITDA of Rmb 1.66 billion in 2026 and Rmb 2.76 billion in 2027 [1][14] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Expected EPS of Rmb 1.45 in 2026 and Rmb 2.42 in 2027 [1][14] Margin Trends - The company expects an increase in overall margins in 2026 due to a rising mix of overseas sales, despite potential near-term headwinds from commodity price increases [1][20] - Forecasted Gross Profit Margin (GPM) of 28.6% in 2026 and 29.1% in 2027, with Net Profit Margin (NPM) of 12.3% in 2026 and 13.7% in 2027 [1][20] Capacity Expansion - Envicool is expanding production capacity both domestically and internationally, including a 20x increase in QD capacity by the end of Q1 2026 [1][17] - The company is also ramping up capacity in the US and Thailand for server cooling products [1][17] Investment Thesis - The company is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of Rmb 121.1, based on a projected P/E of 42x for 2028E discounted back to 2026E [1][24] - Envicool is positioned to capture a growing share of the global server liquid cooling market, with expectations of 5% market share in 2027E, 7% in 2028E, and 10% by 2030E [1][23] Additional Important Insights - The company is selective in domestic data center cooling projects due to intense pricing competition, while the overall industry demand remains strong [1][20] - Envicool's strong R&D capabilities and extensive experience in liquid cooling deployment position it favorably against new entrants in the market [1][16] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding Shenzhen Envicool Technology's growth prospects, financial outlook, and strategic initiatives in the server cooling market.