Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the mechanical industry, relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [1]. Core Insights - The mechanical sector has shown a strong performance, with a 9.68% increase in January, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 8.02 percentage points [3][10]. - Key sub-sectors such as photovoltaic equipment, 3C equipment, laser processing equipment, oil and gas equipment, and semiconductor equipment have seen significant gains, with increases of 44.52%, 36.32%, 21.48%, 20.92%, and 20.17% respectively [3][10]. - The report suggests focusing on traditional engineering machinery with stable earnings and high dividend yields, as well as on humanoid robots and AIDC supporting equipment [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Mechanical Sector Performance - The mechanical sector's performance in January 2026 was strong, with a 9.68% increase, ranking 8th among 30 major industries [3][10]. - The report highlights the recent upward trend in sub-sectors, particularly in photovoltaic and semiconductor equipment, which had previously been lagging [4][10]. 2. Engineering Machinery - The report indicates a positive outlook for the engineering machinery sector in 2026, driven by a recovery in demand and an ongoing equipment update cycle [20][41]. - Key statistics include a 19.2% year-on-year increase in excavator sales in December 2025, with total sales for the year reaching 235,257 units, a 17% increase [20][27]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the engineering machinery sector, such as SANY Heavy Industry and XCMG [41]. 3. Robotics - The industrial robotics sector continues to recover, with a 14.7% year-on-year increase in production in December 2025, totaling 90,116 units [42][49]. - The humanoid robot industry is rapidly developing, with over 140 companies and more than 330 products launched in 2025, marking it as a year of mass production [42][44]. - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in leading companies and core component suppliers within the robotics sector [49]. 4. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding sector shows signs of recovery, with new ship price indices stabilizing and ongoing profitability improvements for shipbuilding companies [50]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's shipbuilding output increased by 6.0%, maintaining a leading position globally [50].

当英伟达Rubin产品线携MCCP微通道技术呼啸而来，当AI芯片功耗冲破千瓦级物理极限，传统风冷已 触达命运的终局，液冷正从"前沿技术"蜕变为算力时代的"生存标配"。曾几何时，海外巨头垄断核心工 艺、把持价值链顶端，大陆厂商只能在代工赛道捡拾微薄红利，随时面临产能转移的生存危机；而今， 借着AI算力爆发与政策东风，一场以技术破壁、全链自主为核心的国产替代浪潮，正在液冷赛道澎湃 涌动——这不仅是份额的更迭，更是"中国智造"从追赶到引领的韧性史诗，每一步突破都镌刻着坚守， 每一处留白都藏着千亿级的星辰大海。 一、技术破壁：在博弈中突围，啃下"卡脖子"硬骨头 时代的浪潮，从来都眷顾有准备者。当前冷板式液冷以65%的市场份额占据主导，其对现有服务器架构 改动小、部署灵活的优势，成为国产厂商切入市场的最佳跳板。国家"东数西算"工程明确新建数据中心 PUE需低于1.25，四部门专项计划推动液冷技术规模化应用，北上广深更是要求新建智算中心液冷机柜 占比超50%。而液冷技术能将PUE稳定在1.1-1.2区间，远超风冷极限，既是实现"双碳"目标的核心支 撑，更是国产厂商的成长沃土。政策红利与市场需求形成共振，让国产替代从"被动 ...

Core Insights - The current reality of AI chips in data centers reveals that significant investments may yield less than 60% of their theoretical value due to power consumption issues [1] - The expansion of computing power is outpacing electricity supply, reshaping the development logic of the data center industry [1] Group 1: Power Consumption Challenges - The disconnection between AI chip technology and actual data center usage is a core issue leading to high power consumption [2] - Many AI chips focus on peak computing power rather than balancing efficiency and power usage, resulting in wasted energy [2] - The rapid increase in computing demand, with a growth rate of 74.1% in 2024, exacerbates the power consumption problem, turning data centers into "power black holes" [3] Group 2: Cooling Technology Innovations - Data centers rely heavily on cooling systems, which account for over 38% of total power consumption, with some cases exceeding 50% [4] - Liquid cooling technology is emerging as a key solution, with three main types: cold plate liquid cooling, immersion cooling, and spray cooling [5][6] - Despite being the most efficient, liquid cooling technology has a low adoption rate of about 10% in the industry [7] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - Companies like NVIDIA and AMD are developing customized liquid cooling solutions to enhance cooling efficiency and adapt to high-density computing environments [8] - In China, Shuguang Shuchuang leads the liquid cooling infrastructure market with a 56% share, providing solutions to major internet firms [9] - The overall manufacturing advantage of China is becoming evident in the transformation of data centers, with the manufacturing sector's value surpassing that of the US [10][11][12] Group 4: Future Directions - The future of data centers will prioritize intelligent design over sheer size, focusing on efficient power usage and effective cooling solutions [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the demand for AI computing power will continue to grow and diversify in 2026, extending from data centers to network edges and even internal terminals [8][13][27] - The report highlights the significant capital expenditure (Capex) growth driven by business revenue, with major cloud service providers like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon showing consistent revenue growth exceeding 20% year-on-year [27][31][35] - The report identifies the increasing importance of silicon photonics technology, particularly the 1.6T optical module, which is expected to maintain accelerated growth and enhance the global market share of domestic optical chips and devices [7][54][70] Group 2 - The report discusses the emergence of new technologies such as Scale-UP supernodes and their impact on optical link demand, indicating that these technologies will drive additional link requirements in 2026 [7][9][66] - It notes that the AI infrastructure is experiencing a high level of prosperity, with significant investments in data centers and AI capabilities expected to continue, particularly in the U.S. [47][49][53] - The report anticipates that the integration of silicon photonics will significantly increase its market penetration, projecting that by 2026, over half of optical module sales will come from silicon photonics solutions [70][75]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4136.16 points, up 0.33%, with a trading volume of 1.3369 trillion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.79% to 14439.66 points, with a trading volume of 1.7484 trillion yuan. The ChiNext Index increased by 0.63% to 3349.50 points, with a trading volume of 822.63 billion yuan. The STAR Market 50 Index closed at 1553.71 points, up 0.78%, with a trading volume of 110.8 billion yuan. The total trading volume of both markets was 3.0853 trillion yuan, an increase of 393.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Sector Performance - The market saw more sectors gaining than losing, with notable increases in power equipment, non-ferrous metals, precious metals, defense and military, steel, media, computer, environmental protection, and textile and apparel sectors. Concepts such as perovskite batteries, commercial aerospace, satellite internet, sapphire, lithium mining, cultivated diamonds, small metals, gold, and interactive short dramas were particularly active. In contrast, sectors like communication, insurance, banking, coal, and home appliances experienced declines [1]. Individual Stock Performance - A total of 3707 stocks rose, while 1336 stocks fell, with 134 stocks remaining flat and 6 stocks suspended. Excluding newly listed stocks, there were 120 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 2 stocks hitting the limit down [2]. - Among the stocks that hit the daily limit up, 23 stocks had consecutive limit-up days of 2 or more, with Fenglong Co., Ltd. leading with 18 consecutive limit-ups [3]. Capital Flow - The net capital outflow from the two markets was 4.167 billion yuan, with the ChiNext seeing a net inflow of 1.515 billion yuan. The CSI 300 index experienced a net outflow of 1.005 billion yuan, while the STAR Market saw a net outflow of 3.171 billion yuan. Out of 31 sectors, 13 sectors had net capital inflows, with the power equipment sector leading with a net inflow of 8.977 billion yuan [4][6]. - The top sectors with net inflows included non-ferrous metals (4.552 billion yuan), media (2.173 billion yuan), and defense and military (2.157 billion yuan). Conversely, the communication sector had the highest net outflow of 7.992 billion yuan, followed by electronics (6.350 billion yuan) and machinery (5.077 billion yuan) [4][6]. Notable Stocks - 191 stocks had net capital inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with Jin Feng Technology receiving the highest net inflow of 1.861 billion yuan. Other notable stocks included Lens Technology (1.594 billion yuan), Qian Zhao Optoelectronics (1.267 billion yuan), and Xian Dao Intelligent (1.217 billion yuan) [7][8]. - Conversely, 116 stocks experienced net capital outflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with Xin Yi Sheng leading with a net outflow of 3.471 billion yuan, followed by Zhong Ji Xu Chuang (3.103 billion yuan) and Li Ou Shares (2.604 billion yuan) [10][11]. Institutional Activity - Institutional investors had a net selling of approximately 1.02 billion yuan, with 22 stocks seeing net purchases and 14 stocks net sales. Jin Feng Technology was the most purchased stock by institutions, with a net purchase amount of approximately 266 million yuan [13][14].

Summary of China Industrials 2026 Outlook Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Industrials - **Core Themes**: AI technology diffusion, industrial upgrades, and globalization are central to the industrial sector's recovery in 2026. The government is focused on enhancing productivity through equipment upgrades, particularly in high-end equipment [1][4]. Key Insights - **Industrial Cycle**: The industrial cycle is characterized by strong global demand for capital goods, driven by AI technology applications and supply chain security concerns. China's trend of localizing high-end equipment remains strong, with specific sectors like data centers, electronics, and robotics expected to show growth, while processing markets may experience muted demand [3][10]. - **AI Applications**: 2026 is anticipated to mark the beginning of significant capital expenditure on physical AI, which will benefit automation and robotics companies. The government is supporting this through initiatives aimed at increasing the deployment of AI-powered robotics [4][11][12]. - **Localization and Supply Chain**: The localization rates for automation and industrial robots are projected to rise, with expectations of reaching 60-70% by 2030. This trend is expected to benefit companies involved in automation and precision components [21][22][23]. Market Dynamics - **Overseas Expansion**: Equipment exports from China have grown significantly, outpacing overall export growth. Companies are motivated to expand into international markets to capture larger total addressable markets (TAM) and improve margins [24][25]. - **Margin Expansion**: The overall net margin for China's industrials is expected to increase from approximately 13.0% in 2025 to around 14.6% in 2027, driven by overseas growth and advancements in AI technology [26][27]. Stock Recommendations - **Preferred Stocks**: The report highlights several stocks that are expected to benefit from cyclical strength and structural tailwinds, including: - **Geekplus (2590.HK)**: OW - **Sany Heavy (600031.SS)**: OW - **Leaderdrive (688017.SS)**: OW - **Han's Laser (002008.SZ)**: OW - **Inovance (300124.SZ)**: OW - **Hengli (601100.SS)**: OW - **Wuxi Lead (300450.SZ)**: OW - **Envicool (002837.SZ)**: OW - **Underweight Stocks**: Stocks such as **CSCEC (601668.SS)**, **CRRC-H (1766.HK)**, and **Maxwell (300751.SZ)** are rated as underweight due to various market challenges [5][8][46]. Additional Considerations - **Geopolitical Factors**: The geopolitical landscape is influencing supply chain security, which is a critical factor for capital goods demand globally [3]. - **Investment in AI**: The anticipated investment in AI infrastructure is expected to redefine smart manufacturing and create new opportunities within the industrial sector [10][11]. - **Sector Performance**: The report indicates that most industrial stocks are trading at or above their historical five-year average P/E ratios, reflecting a positive outlook for continuous upgrades and AI-related demand [26][38]. This comprehensive analysis provides insights into the expected recovery and growth opportunities within the China Industrials sector for 2026, highlighting key themes, market dynamics, and stock recommendations.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the AI industry [1] Core Insights - The capital expenditure (Capex) guidance from major overseas companies is optimistic, with a continuous upward trend in computing power expected through 2026. The total Capex for Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta is projected to reach $406.5 billion in 2025 and $596.4 billion in 2026, representing year-on-year growth of 46% and 47% respectively [3][5][22] - The demand for AI-related infrastructure is driving significant upgrades in interconnects, cooling, and power supply sectors, indicating a long-term growth cycle distinct from previous technology cycles [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Overseas Major Companies' Capex Guidance - Major companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta are expected to increase their Capex significantly, with projections of $186.4 billion, $139.5 billion, $162.5 billion, and $108 billion respectively for 2026 [6][7][14][18][21] - The overall Capex for these four companies is expected to account for 62% of the global AI-related Capex, which is projected to reach $960 billion by 2026 [22][23] 2. Interconnect Sector: Optical Modules and PCBs - The interconnect sector is experiencing a fundamental shift in demand due to AI server cluster construction, leading to simultaneous upgrades in computing boards, switches, and optical modules, which will increase both demand and pricing [3][4] - The deployment of 800G technology is expected to accelerate, with 1.6T technology entering the introduction phase [3] 3. Cooling Sector: Liquid Cooling Demand - The power density of AI GPU racks is projected to rise from 130 kW in 2024 to over 1 MW by 2029, making liquid cooling technology essential [3][4] 4. Power Supply Sector: AIDC Power Distribution Evolution - The evolution of AIDC power distribution methods is crucial, with a focus on HVDC and SST technologies to enhance system efficiency and reduce energy losses [3][4] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific companies within various sectors: - Computing power: Haiguang Information - Interconnects - Optical modules: LightSpeed Technology, Huagong Technology - Interconnects - PCBs: Shenghong Technology, Shennan Circuits, and others - Cooling: Invec - Power supply: Magpow [3][4]

Summary of Conference Call Records Company Overview - **Company**: 英维克 (Invec) - **Industry**: Server Cooling and Energy Storage Key Points Sales and Profit Growth - The company expects sales growth in 2026, with profit growth anticipated to outpace revenue growth, marking a critical turning point for large-scale production of server cooling products in 2026 [1][2] - Projected total sales growth for 2026 is 79%, with profit growth of 127% [3] Growth Drivers - Growth is supported by three main pillars: 1. A 2MW level CDU project based on Google's Project Deschutes 5, expected to contribute significantly to revenue in the second half of 2026 [1] 2. Rapid disconnect (QD) component production capacity planned to be achieved by the end of Q1 2026 to meet increasing demand [1] 3. Accelerated overseas market demand for energy storage cooling, with increasing unit value [1] Market Share and Revenue Projections - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 121.1 RMB, expecting global server liquid cooling market share to rise from 1% in 2025 to 10% by 2030 [2] - Anticipated compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for server cooling business sales from 2025 to 2030 is 98%, with an average gross margin around 30% [2] Order Visibility and Revenue Trends - Management noted a clear quarter-over-quarter growth trend in order visibility and revenue scale for the server cooling business from Q1 to Q4 [2] - However, there remains uncertainty regarding the specific timing of individual liquid cooling project implementations and client budget allocations [2] Production Capacity Expansion - The company is actively expanding production bases both domestically and overseas: - Domestic expansion includes increasing CDU, piping, and QD capacity, with QD capacity construction starting in November 2025 [3] - Overseas, the company operates two factories in the U.S. for server cooling and energy storage cooling products, and one factory in Thailand focused on server cooling [3] Next-Generation Liquid Cooling Technology - Investment in next-generation liquid cooling technologies, including microchannel liquid cooling plates (MLCP) and immersion cooling, is ongoing, but large-scale commercialization is not expected until 2026-2027 [4] Energy Storage System Cooling - The sales growth for the energy storage system (BESS) cooling segment is expected to accelerate in 2026, driven by strong global energy storage demand [4] - Anticipated sales growth for this segment is 19% in 2025 and 34% in 2026, with potential for unit value to increase 2-3 times for certain overseas clients [4] Gross Margin Trends - The company expects overall gross margin to improve in 2026 due to a higher proportion of overseas sales [4] - Short-term commodity price increases, particularly for copper, may exert some pressure on gross margins, but the impact is expected to be limited [4] - Projected gross margins for 2026 and 2027 are 28.6% and 29.1%, respectively, with net margins of 12.3% and 13.7% [5]

Market Overview - A-share major indices showed a significant rebound this week, with the weekly performance of the indices as follows: CSI 300 at -0.57%, ChiNext 300 at 1.39%, STAR 50 at 2.58%, CSI 500 at 2.18%, CSI 1000 at 1.27%, and the humanoid robot index at 1.48%, with the STAR 50 showing the most notable recovery [1] Recent Events and Highlights - China applied to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) for frequency resources for over 200,000 satellites, with more than 190,000 satellites coming from the newly established Radio Innovation Institute. Experts are optimistic about the institute's role in integrating industry resources and leveraging China's large market to accelerate its industry to catch up with SpaceX [2] Current Perspectives - The establishment of the humanoid robot and embodied intelligence standardization technical committee by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is viewed positively for the humanoid robot industry chain, with related companies including Hengshuai Co., Junpu Intelligent, Anpeilong, Keda Li, Lens Technology, Changying Precision, Sanhua Intelligent Control, Fengmao Co., Top Group, and Wuzhou Xinchun [3] - Guangdong has launched its first provincial-level drone governance system, creating a drone resource pool and a provincial management platform to build a "one network for unified flight" service ecosystem, with related companies including Xindong Link, Wanfeng Aowei, Wolong Electric Drive, and Zongshen Power [3] - The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology's Tair System Laboratory recently issued a liquid cooling capability testing report and certificate to Shenzhen Invech Technology Co., indicating that AI data center construction is expected to drive demand for liquid cooling equipment, with related companies including Invech, Nanfeng Co., Chuanrun Co., and Bojie Co. [3] - China's application to the ITU for over 200,000 satellites coincides with the U.S. Federal Communications Commission granting SpaceX significant authorization to build, deploy, and operate an additional 7,500 second-generation Starlink satellites, with related companies including Superjet Co., Xindong Link, Guoji Precision, and Electric Science Digital [3]

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant outflows of main funds from various stocks, particularly in the communication equipment and renewable energy sectors, suggesting a potential shift in investor sentiment and market dynamics [1][2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance and Fund Outflows - The top stock with the largest fund outflow is Xinye Technology, with a decrease of 20.21 billion yuan and a drop of 5.01% [2] - Zhongji Xuchuang follows with an outflow of 18.09 billion yuan and a decline of 3.22% [2] - Yangguang Electric Power experienced an outflow of 15.07 billion yuan, with a decrease of 5.25% [2] - Shenghong Technology saw a fund outflow of 14.52 billion yuan and a drop of 5.02% [2] - China Satellite had an outflow of 13.92 billion yuan, with a significant decline of 7.84% [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The communication equipment sector is notably affected, with multiple companies like Xinye Technology, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Fenghuo Communication experiencing substantial fund outflows [2][3] - The photovoltaic equipment sector, represented by Yangguang Electric Power and Longi Green Energy, also shows significant outflows, indicating potential challenges in this industry [2][3] - The electronic components sector, including Shenghong Technology and Huadian Co., is facing similar trends with notable fund withdrawals [2][3]