消息面上，1月16日晚，钧达股份发布公告称，预计2025年度归属于上市公司股东的净亏损12亿元-15亿 元，上年同期亏损5.91亿元。公告指出，全球光伏装机量延续高增长态势，海外市场光伏电池需求尤为 旺盛，但行业供需失衡仍处周期底部，叠加主产业链价格传导不畅等多重因素影响，公司经营承压，业 绩出现阶段性亏损。同时，公司依据谨慎性原则拟计提资产减值准备，对本期业绩有一定影响。 钧达股份（002865）(02865)跌超3%，截至发稿，跌3.2%，报24.2港元，成交额1.54亿港元。 ...

分红方面，钧达股份A股上市后累计派现3.19亿元。近三年，累计派现2.55亿元。 1月16日，钧达股份涨8.57%，成交额31.74亿元。两融数据显示，当日钧达股份获融资买入额2.68亿 元，融资偿还2.44亿元，融资净买入2408.72万元。截至1月16日，钧达股份融资融券余额合计8.07亿 元。 融资方面，钧达股份当日融资买入2.68亿元。当前融资余额8.06亿元，占流通市值的3.92%，融资余额 超过近一年90%分位水平，处于高位。 融券方面，钧达股份1月16日融券偿还0.00股，融券卖出500.00股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额4.49万 元；融券余量8900.00股，融券余额79.83万元，超过近一年90%分位水平，处于高位。 资料显示，海南钧达新能源科技股份有限公司位于海南省海口市南海大道168号海口保税区内海南钧达 大楼,香港铜锣湾勿地臣街1号时代广场2座31楼，成立日期2003年4月3日，上市日期2017年4月25日，公 司主营业务涉及海南钧达新能源科技股份有限公司是一家主要从事光伏电池的研发、生产和销售的中国 公司。该公司产品主要包括210-N N型隧穿氧化层钝化接触（TOPCon）单晶电池 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Hainan Junda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., announced an investment in Shanghai Xingyi Chip Energy Technology Co., Ltd., acquiring a 16.6667% stake through a cash investment of RMB 30 million [2][9]. Company Overview - Shanghai Xingyi Chip Energy Technology Co., Ltd. was established on January 6, 2026, with a registered capital of RMB 1.5 million. The company focuses on technology services, new materials research, and sales of photovoltaic equipment [3][11]. - The company's legal representative is Zhang Guodong, and it is located in Jiading District, Shanghai [11]. Shareholding Structure - The initial shareholding structure of Shanghai Xingyi includes major shareholders such as Shao Yuchuan (66.67%), Shanghai Shangwan Wing Enterprise Management Partnership (20%), and Hangzhou Detingwo Technology Co., Ltd. (7.84%) [4][11]. - Following the conversion of shares from the original business entity, the adjusted shareholding structure will include Junda holding 16.6667% of the company, with other shareholders' stakes also adjusted accordingly [6][12]. Investment Details - The investment involves an increase in the registered capital of Shanghai Xingyi by RMB 46.1539 million, with Junda's investment aimed at enhancing the company's capabilities in the photovoltaic sector [5][13]. - The total investment from Junda will be RMB 30 million, which will be used to subscribe to the newly issued capital of the target company [5][13]. Purpose of the Transaction - The collaboration aims to leverage opportunities in the global low-orbit satellite networking and space computing industries, enhancing both companies' strengths in photovoltaic industrialization and space technology adaptation [14]. - This partnership is expected to create synergies with the company's existing photovoltaic business, expanding its application scenarios from terrestrial to space photovoltaic fields, aligning with the company's long-term strategic investment plans [14].

Economic Information - Several smartphone manufacturers, including Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo, and Transsion, have lowered their annual shipment forecasts, with Xiaomi and OPPO reducing by over 20%, vivo by nearly 15%, and Transsion to below 70 million units [2] - Silver prices have surged over 50% in one month and over 150% in six months, impacting the photovoltaic industry, which consumes a significant amount of silver. The cost of raw materials for solar cells has increased by nearly 20% due to rising silver prices [2] - The company Xibei is expected to incur cumulative losses exceeding 600 million yuan from September 2025 to March 2026, leading to the closure of 102 stores, accounting for 30% of its total outlets [2] Company Alerts - Shenghong Technology anticipates a net profit increase of 260%-295% year-on-year for 2025, although Q4 performance fell short of expectations [4] - Cambridge Technology expects a net profit increase of 51%-67% year-on-year for 2025, with Q4 results also below expectations [4] - Multiple companies, including Weimait and Youyan Silicon, have announced plans to reduce their shareholdings by up to 4.98% and 3% respectively [4][11] Overseas Alerts - The three major U.S. stock indices collectively declined last Friday, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index dropping by 1.15%. Notable declines were seen in Chinese stocks such as Alibaba and JD.com [5] - The European Union is considering imposing tariffs on U.S. goods worth 93 billion euros in response to U.S. tariffs on eight European countries, which could take effect on February 6 if no agreement is reached [5]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is facing significant losses, with major companies like Longi Green Energy, Tongwei Co., and Aiko Solar all forecasting substantial net losses for 2025, indicating a challenging market environment driven by overcapacity and rising raw material costs [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Longi Green Energy expects a net loss of approximately 60 billion to 65 billion yuan for 2025, citing increased costs of silver paste and silicon materials as key factors [1]. - Tongwei Co. is projected to incur a net loss of 82 billion to 96 billion yuan for 2025, with product prices remaining low and insufficient cost transmission impacting profitability [1]. - Aiko Solar anticipates a net loss of 45 billion to 48 billion yuan for 2025, while TCL Zhonghuan expects a loss of 12 billion to 19 billion yuan, both companies highlighting the impact of structural overcapacity on their operations [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The photovoltaic sector has experienced nine consecutive quarters of losses since Q4 2023, with ongoing supply-demand imbalances exacerbating the situation [2]. - Industry experts emphasize the need for capacity clearing and structural optimization, suggesting that companies must move beyond simple production cuts to enhance competitive advantages through technology and product differentiation [2]. - TCL Zhonghuan's acquisition of Yida Energy marks a significant step towards industry consolidation, aiming to optimize resources and foster collaboration, which could help the sector transition from low-level competition to value co-creation [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the "space photovoltaic" sector, indicating it as a key investment theme for 2026, driven by strong demand and geopolitical narratives [7][8]. Core Insights - The space photovoltaic industry is experiencing significant advancements, primarily among companies already established in the sector, highlighting the high barriers to entry [7][8]. - The Chinese photovoltaic supply chain is expected to accelerate the growth of the space photovoltaic market, benefiting from the U.S. demand for "self-sufficiency" in solar products [7][8]. - The wind power and grid equipment sectors have also received substantial positive catalysts, with notable developments in offshore wind projects and significant investments planned by the State Grid [7][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Space Photovoltaics - Recent developments in the space photovoltaic sector include strategic partnerships and investments by companies like JunDa and Dongfang Risen, focusing on advanced technologies such as perovskite and HJT cells [8][9]. - The U.S. is facing a critical need for domestic solar supply chains due to trade barriers, which presents a significant opportunity for Chinese companies to capitalize on this demand [11][12]. Wind Power - The UK government has signed contracts for 8.4GW of offshore wind projects, exceeding market expectations, which strengthens the outlook for domestic supply chain exports [13][14]. - The auction results indicate a favorable pricing environment for developers, enhancing the profitability of future projects [14]. Grid Equipment - The State Grid's investment plan of 4 trillion yuan for the 14th Five-Year Plan represents a 40% increase from the previous plan, establishing a strong foundation for long-term growth in the grid sector [3][15]. - The aging infrastructure in North America is driving demand for new transformers and grid solutions, creating opportunities for companies like Siyuan Electric and Jinpan Technology [17][19]. Lithium Batteries - New regulations on battery recycling are set to take effect in April 2026, emphasizing the importance of a comprehensive management system for used batteries [22][23]. - Companies like Fulin Precision are expanding their production capabilities in lithium iron phosphate batteries, indicating a positive trend in the lithium battery market [25][26]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - The hydrogen industry is poised for growth, with significant policy support and increasing sales of hydrogen vehicles expected in the coming years [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with the overall sector still in a state of loss, as evidenced by the recent earnings forecasts from major companies indicating significant expected losses for 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Longi Green Energy (隆基绿能) expects a net loss of approximately 60 billion to 65 billion yuan for 2025, primarily due to rising costs of silver paste and silicon materials [3]. - Tongwei Co., Ltd. (通威股份) anticipates the highest loss among the companies, with a projected net loss of 90 billion to 100 billion yuan for 2025, despite some performance improvement from rising polysilicon prices [2][3]. - TCL Zhonghuan (TCL中环) forecasts a net loss of 82 billion to 96 billion yuan for 2025, with product prices remaining low and insufficient cost transmission [2][3]. - JA Solar (晶澳科技) and Aiko Solar (爱旭股份) expect net losses of 45 billion to 48 billion yuan and 12 billion to 19 billion yuan, respectively, citing structural overcapacity as a significant challenge [3]. - Trina Solar (天合光能) and JinkoSolar (晶科能源) have not disclosed specific loss amounts but have indicated continued losses for 2025 [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The losses among these nine major companies are correlated with their production capacity, indicating that larger companies are experiencing greater losses [2]. - The industry is shifting from a focus on scale to a competition based on the ability to reduce losses, with Tongwei being the only company to see an increase in loss magnitude for 2025 compared to 2024 [4]. - The overall industry has faced nine consecutive quarters of losses since the fourth quarter of 2023, with ongoing supply-demand imbalances [4]. - Companies are urged to break away from homogeneous competition and build comprehensive advantages through technology, products, and ecosystems [4].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The State Grid Corporation of China plans to invest 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, which represents a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, aimed at developing a new power system and enhancing the supply chain [21][22] - The global lithium-ion battery shipment is expected to reach 2,280.5 GWh in 2025, with a growth rate of 47.6% year-on-year, driven by demand in the energy storage sector [14] - The report highlights significant developments in the energy storage sector, including a 2.2 GW independent energy storage project in Hohhot and a 10 GWh energy storage system factory to be built by Sungrow in Egypt [18][19] Summary by Sections Lithium Battery Sector - Container Technology signed a major procurement agreement with CATL to supply 3.05 million tons of lithium iron phosphate materials from Q1 2026 to 2031, with a total sales value exceeding 120 billion yuan [12] - The report recommends focusing on companies like CATL and EVE Energy, as well as new technology directions such as solid-state batteries [6] Energy Storage Sector - Hohhot's independent energy storage project will have a construction scale of 2.2 GW, expected to be operational by the end of 2027 [18] - Sungrow will invest in a 10 GWh energy storage system factory in Egypt, marking a significant step in localizing battery storage system manufacturing [19][20] Power Equipment Sector - The State Grid's investment plan aims to support the construction of a new power system, with a focus on renewable energy integration and enhancing grid capabilities [21][22] - The report suggests monitoring companies involved in ultra-high voltage projects and power equipment exports [6] Photovoltaic Sector - The report notes stable prices for silicon materials and an increase in silicon wafer production, with expectations for a slight rise in production in January [24][25] - The demand for photovoltaic components remains under pressure due to high prices, but there is an anticipated upward trend in component prices [27][28] Wind Power Sector - The report highlights significant offshore wind projects in both domestic and international markets, with recommendations to focus on leading cable and turbine manufacturers [6]

2026.01. 18 本文字数：2245，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 魏中原 在光伏行业持续低迷的背景下，钧达股份（002865.SZ）发布了业绩预亏公告，公司预计2025年归母 净利润亏损12亿-15亿元，亏损同比进一步扩大的同时，连亏两年"板上钉钉"。 太空光伏概念热炒，控股股东减持套现 2025年光伏产能阶段性过剩，全年产业链价格承压，虽然行业自律行为使得产品价格企稳反弹，但价 格上行阻力仍较大，叠加相对低迷的终端需求，使得光伏制造商业绩普遍续亏。天合光能 （688599.SH）、大全能源（688303.SH）、晶科能源（688223.SH）等组件、硅料、电池等光伏龙 头企业，均预计2025年业绩续亏。 然而，受"太空光伏"概念热炒推动，钧达股份股价去年12月以来累计上涨126%。股价翻倍的背后，钧 达股份的两大动作引人关注：一是公司宣布投资布局尚处早期的"太空光伏"概念企业；二是几乎同步， 公司控股股东抛出了一份最高减持3%股份的计划，拟套现金额超7.8亿元。 在基本面拐点未现、新业务能否带来实质性业绩增长仍存疑之际，钧达股份股价的狂热与重要股东的减 持套现意愿交织，为这波行情蒙上了一层 ...

尽管钧达股份在业绩预告中提及了"海外销售占比突破50%""公司成为海外地区光伏电池核心供应商"等 积极的市场布局，但这些举措并未能扭转业绩颓势。 在光伏行业持续低迷的背景下，钧达股份（002865.SZ）发布了业绩预亏公告，公司预计2025年归母净 利润亏损12亿-15亿元，亏损同比进一步扩大的同时，连亏两年"板上钉钉"。 然而，受"太空光伏"概念热炒推动，钧达股份股价去年12月以来累计上涨126%。股价翻倍的背后，钧 达股份的两大动作引人关注：一是公司宣布投资布局尚处早期的"太空光伏"概念企业；二是几乎同步， 公司控股股东抛出了一份最高减持3%股份的计划，拟套现金额超7.8亿元。 在基本面拐点未现、新业务能否带来实质性业绩增长仍存疑之际，钧达股份股价的狂热与重要股东的减 持套现意愿交织，为这波行情蒙上了一层迷雾。 业绩持续承压，亏损金额扩大 根据2025年度业绩预告，钧达股份预计2025年归母净利润亏损12亿元至15亿元，较2024年亏损5.91亿元 进一步扩大；预计扣非后归母净利润亏损14亿元至18亿元，上年同期为亏损11.18亿元。 钧达股份的单季度亏损也在环比扩大。2025年前三季度，公司归母净利润亏 ...