Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate-A" rating to the company with a target price of 15.09 CNY as of April 25, 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 2.065 billion CNY in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 41.26%, and a net profit of 210 million CNY, up 68.12% year-on-year [1]. - The company aims to double its revenue again in the next three years, targeting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 25% [1][3]. - The growth is driven by increased sales of quail eggs and the upgrade of packaging and distribution channels [1][4]. Revenue Analysis - In 2023, the company reported revenue growth across various quarters: Q1 +68.40%, Q2 +35.17%, Q3 +45.92%, and Q4 +26.51% [1]. - Revenue breakdown by product category for 2023 includes fish products at 1.291 billion CNY (+25.87%), poultry products at 451.96 million CNY (+147.56%), and vegetable products at 72.11 million CNY (+88.24%) [1][29]. - The company has seen a significant increase in the proportion of small packaging revenue, which accounted for 49% of total revenue, up 16% year-on-year [1]. Profit Analysis - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 28.17%, an increase of 2.54 percentage points year-on-year, with Q4 gross margin reaching 32.61% [1]. - The company’s net profit margin for 2023 was 10.15%, up 1.62 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [1]. Future Outlook - The company expects strong growth in its second major product, quail eggs, as production bottlenecks ease and brand recognition increases [3]. - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of 30.9%, 23.9%, and 20.9% for 2024 to 2026, with net profit growth rates of 37.8%, 30.2%, and 25.1% respectively [4][12]. - The company is focusing on expanding its modern distribution channels and enhancing its brand image through product innovation and differentiation [3][10]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s projected revenue for 2024 is 2.704 billion CNY, with a net profit of 289 million CNY [12]. - The report indicates that the company’s P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are expected to be 22.5x, 17.3x, and 13.8x respectively, suggesting a relatively attractive valuation compared to peers [4][33].

[Table_Title] 评级：买入（维持） 行稳致远，势能向上 [Table_Finance] 公司盈利预测及估值 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 1,462 2,065 2,855 3,599 4,438 增长率 yoy% 32% 41% 38% 26% 23% 净利润（百万元） 125 210 300 392 503 增长率 yoy% 47% 68% 43% 31% 28% 每股收益（元） 0.28 0.46 0.66 0.87 1.11 每股现金流量 0.21 0.35 0.43 0.33 1.43 净资产收益率 13% 16% 20% 21% 22% P/E 54.6 32.5 22.7 17.3 13.5 P/B 7.0 5.2 4.5 3.7 3.1 备注：股价选取 2024 年 4 月 25 日收盘价 市场价格：15.09 元 [Table_Profit] 基本状况 总股本(百万股) 451 流通股本(百万股) 303 市价(元) 15.09 市值(百万元) 6,807 流通市值(百万元) 4,570 劲仔食品（003000.SZ）/食 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jinzai Food with a target price of 17.64 yuan [4] Core Views - Jinzai Food achieved robust revenue growth and significant improvement in net profit margin in Q1 2024 [4] - The company's net profit in Q1 2024 reached 74 million yuan, up 87.73% year-on-year, with revenue increasing by 23.58% to 540 million yuan [4] - The gross profit margin in Q1 2024 was 30.02%, up 4.04 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower raw material costs and improved supply chain efficiency [4] - The net profit margin reached 13.80%, up 4.80 percentage points year-on-year, supported by cost reductions and operational efficiency [4] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 was 2,065 million yuan, with a growth rate of 41.26% [5] - Net profit for 2023 was 210 million yuan, up 68.17% year-on-year [5] - Revenue is expected to grow to 2,642 million yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 27.94% [5] - Net profit is projected to reach 285 million yuan in 2024, up 35.94% year-on-year [5] Product and Channel Performance - The small fish product maintained double-digit growth, while quail egg sales remained at a high level [4] - New quail egg production capacity is expected to start in Q2 2024, with quail egg prices declining year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [4] - The company launched new short-shelf-life tofu products, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth [4] - Offline channels maintained rapid growth, while e-commerce growth slowed due to price control and reduced marketing spending [4] Future Outlook - The company aims to expand its product portfolio with "large packaging + bulk sales" and improve its channel coverage [4] - Quail egg sales are expected to reach 1 billion yuan, driven by new production capacity and product innovation [4] - The company plans to increase the penetration of large packaging and bulk products in existing retail outlets [4] Valuation and Projections - The EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 0.63/0.81/1.01 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 24x/19x/15x [4] - The target price of 17.64 yuan is based on a 28x P/E ratio for 2024 earnings [4]

在法律允许的情况下，信达证券或其关联机构可能会持有报告中涉及的公司所发行的证券并进行交易，并可能会为这些公司正在 提供或争取提供投资银行业务服务。 本报告版权仅为信达证券所有。未经信达证券书面同意，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制、发布、转发或引用本报告 的任何部分。若信达证券以外的机构向其客户发放本报告，则由该机构独自为此发送行为负责，信达证券对此等行为不承担任何 责任。本报告同时不构成信达证券向发送本报告的机构之客户提供的投资建议。 如未经信达证券授权，私自转载或者转发本报告，所引起的一切后果及法律责任由私自转载或转发者承担。信达证券将保留随时 追究其法律责任的权利。 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------|--------------------------------| | 投资建议的比较标准 | 股票投资评级 | 行业投资评级 | | 本报告采用的基准指数 ：沪深 300 | 买入：股价相对强于基准 1 5 ％以上； | 看好：行业指 ...

一季度散称增速仍然领先，线下增速30%+，线 上增速持平；小包装是19%+，大包装+散装是 30%+成长，大包装增速相对较慢，主要是他的 线上占比，我们做大包装的核心是做5-10元，希 望做好客单价和品牌力的均衡； 23年下半年的深海鳀鱼，4月的糖心鹌鹑蛋上 市，周鲜鲜的短保都在规划； 23Q4+24Q1达到了我们25%的内部的目标，从 客户层面，我们进行终端备货，线上目前还是在 做，线上这个盘子，还没做鹌鹑蛋，接下来就会 做线上鹌鹑蛋（长期规划是10亿级别单品），我 们会通过子品牌和不同规格差异，做增量，整体 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company with a target price of 18.80 yuan over the next six months, which corresponds to a dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of 27X for 2024 [4][9]. Core Insights - The company achieved a significant year-on-year increase in net profit of 87.73% in Q1 2024, with a net profit margin of 13.63%, up by 4.66 percentage points, primarily driven by scale effects, cost advantages, and increased government subsidies [2][7]. - Revenue for Q1 2024 was 5.40 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.58%, and a combined year-on-year growth of 25.07% when considering Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 [5][7]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth rates of 28.04%, 25.60%, and 19.19% for 2024 to 2026, with net profit growth rates of 49.86%, 29.08%, and 27.68% respectively, indicating strong growth potential driven by the expansion of quail egg sales and large packaging distribution [4][12]. Summary by Sections Growth Trends - The company continues to expand its product distribution channels and promote its products effectively, indicating a sustained growth trend [1]. Profitability Improvement - The company’s gross profit margin reached 30.02%, up by 4.04 percentage points, benefiting from improved production efficiency and scale effects [2][4]. Product and Channel Strategy - The dual-driven growth strategy of large packaging and quail eggs is seen as a robust path for growth, with clear product logic and channel expansion [3][4]. Financial Forecast - Adjustments to revenue and profit forecasts have been made, with expected revenues revised from 27.07 billion yuan to 26.44 billion yuan and profits from 2.91 billion yuan to 3.14 billion yuan for the upcoming periods [4][12].

持有： 预期未来 12 个月内，股价相对大盘的变动幅度介于-10%～+10%。 卖出： 预期未来 12 个月内，股价表现弱于大盘 10%以上。 [Table_CompanyInvestDescription] 广发证券—公司投资评级说明 买入： 预期未来 12 个月内，股价表现强于大盘 15%以上。 卖出： 预期未来 12 个月内，股价表现弱于大盘 5%以上。 [Table_Address] 联系我们 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------|--------------------------|-----------------------|-------------------------------|-------------------------|--------------------------| | | 广州市 | 深圳市 | 北京市 | 上海市 | 香港 | | 地址 | 广州市天河区马场路 | 深圳市福田区益田路 | 北京市西城区月坛北 | 上海市浦东新区南泉 | 香港湾仔骆克道 81 号 | | | ...

证 券 研 告 公 研 究 报 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with 2024-2026 EPS forecasts of 0.61/0.78/0.95 yuan, and corresponding P/E ratios of 25/20/16x [1][20] Core Views - The company's product strategy is clear, and its multi-channel expansion is progressing smoothly, supporting the "Buy" rating [1] - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 30.02%, up 4.04 percentage points year-over-year, driven by lower raw material costs [12] - Net profit margin in Q1 2024 reached 13.63%, up 4.66 percentage points year-over-year, reflecting improved profitability [12] - The company is actively adjusting its online channel strategy to stabilize pricing and align with its overall channel strategy [18] Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue grew 23.58% year-over-year to 540 million yuan, while net profit surged 87.73% to 74 million yuan [17] - For 2024-2026, the report forecasts revenue growth of 20.03%, 23.27%, and 33.18%, respectively [19] - Net profit is expected to grow at a CAGR of 21.77% from 2022 to 2026, reaching 427 million yuan by 2026 [19] - ROE is projected to increase from 12.88% in 2022 to 23.27% in 2026 [19] Market Data - The company's total market capitalization is 6.91 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 451 million shares [3] - The stock's 52-week high and low are 16.01 yuan and 9.67 yuan, respectively [3] - The 3-month turnover rate is 105.75% [3] Channel and Product Strategy - The company is transitioning from traditional channels to modern and online channels, including snack vending channels [18] - New product categories, such as quail eggs, are well-suited for bulk sales channels, aiding the transition from fixed to bulk product specifications [18] - The company is focusing on high-end deep-sea anchovy products to shift consumer perception from low-priced spicy snacks to higher-value fish snacks [18] Cost and Profitability - Raw material costs for anchovy and quail eggs have decreased, contributing to improved gross margins [12] - The company has secured a six-month supply of anchovy at lower prices, ensuring stable costs in the first half of 2024 [12] - Sales expense ratio in Q1 2024 was 13.12%, up 1.24 percentage points year-over-year, due to increased terminal expenses [12]

证 券 研 究 报 告 食品饮料 ——线下渠道表现符合预期 盈利能力持续改善 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 04 月 24 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 15.32 | | 一年内最高 / 最低（元） | 16.01/9.67 | | 市净率 | 5.1 | | 息率（分红/ 股价） | 1.96 | | | 4640 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） 上证指数/深证成指 | 3044.82/9251.13 | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|----------------------------|-------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|----------|----- ...